Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid? Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Pew Research Center October 24-25, 2012
The American Voter 2
Voter Turnout 2004 2008 % % Total 63.8 63.6 White 67.2 66.1 Black 60.0 64.7 Hispanic 47.2 49.9 Asian 44.1 47.6 Men 62.1 61.5 (60.7 m) Women 65.4 65.7 (70.4 m) 18-24 46.7 48.5 25-44 60.1 60.0 45-74 71.0 69.8 75+ 68.5 67.8 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 3
Young-Old Voting Gap Largest Since 1972 % Voting for Democratic presidential candidate Current figures based on registered voters, Sept. 22-Oct. 4, 2011. Previous data based on exit polls. 4
Number of Independents Continues to Grow Republican Democrat Independent 33 31 29 36 32 25 37 32 24 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 2012 numbers calculated as of October 12 (People-Press surveys). 5
Party Profiles in 2012 Republicans Independents Democrats % % % White 87 68 55 Black 2 7 24 Hispanic 6 15 14 Other 4 8 6 Male 50 55 41 Female 50 45 59 Average age 50.3 44.2 48.2 Think of self as Conservative 70 32 23 Moderate 25 45 39 Liberal 5 23 38 Whites and blacks include those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Calculations for the year up to October 12 (People-Press surveys). 6
Large Partisan Divides Social safety net Environment* Labor unions Equal opportunity Govt performance Immigration** Business Personal efficacy Social conservatism Religiosity Personal finance National security Optimism Govt responsiveness Political engagement 1987 2012 23 5 20 17 6 24 4 24 16 20 14 17 5 15 2 15 14 15 12 14 11 7 10 5 4 33 33 37 39 41 Bars show the differences between Republicans and Democrats across 15 values indices based on related survey questions. * Environment index began in 1992, immigration index in 2002. People-Press 2012 Values survey. 7
The Domestic Economy as an Electoral Issue 8
Avg. Consumer Confidence in Reelection Years Consumer Confidence and Presidential Elections Reelected incumbents Losing incumbents 102 94 102 105 96 74 62 70 Nixon Ford Carter Reagan George HW Bush Clinton George W Bush 2012 (Sept) Data sources: Conference Board, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Taken from Council on Foreign Relations 9
People More Positive about Economic Future 80 Economy will get better Economy is recovering 60 51 50 51 57 50 40 20 35 27 36 42 44 45 0 June July August September October NBC News/Wall Street Journal October 2012 poll. 10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 But Not Better Off Now % saying their personal financial situation is excellent or good 60 50 40 30 20 50 Recession begins 38 Obama takes office 41 10 0 September 6, 2012 Pew Social and Demographic Trends 11
The Economy is Top Priority Issue that matters most in deciding vote... Likely voters % The economy 46 Social issues and values 15 Social Security and Medicare 12 Health care 10 The federal deficit 7 Foreign policy and the Middle East 6 Terrorism 1 NBC News/WSJ Sept. 26-30, 2012 poll. 12
Swing Priorities Differ by Gender The most important issue in this election is Women Men Among female registered voters % Among male registered voters Abortion 39 Jobs 38 Jobs 19 The economy 37 Healthcare 18 Federal budget deficit 10 The economy 16 Healthcare 10 Equal rights/pay 15 Taxes 6 Gov t regulation 3 Gov t regulation 4 Education 2 Defense/National security 4 Medicare/Elderly care 2 Medicare/Elderly care 3 Social Security 2 Foreign policy 2 Taxes 1 Honesty/Integrity 2 % Asked of registered voters in 12 key swing states. October 5-11, 2012 Gallup poll. 13
International Issues 14
Foreign Issues Far Less Important than in 2008, 2004 Most important problem facing the country July 2004 July 2008 Mar 2012 % % % Economic problems NET 25 61 65 Unemployment/Jobs 8 5 31 Economy (General) 14 39 24 Foreign issues NET 41 25 7 War/Iraq/Afghanistan 25 17 3 Selected answers shown. Respondents were allowed to give more than one answer. Based on general public. People-Press March 2012 survey. 15
More Favor Focusing Greater Attention on Problems at Home We should pay less attention to problems overseas, concentrate on problems here at home 88 Agree 73 Completely agree 78 83 48 33 37 45 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 People-Press 2012 Values survey. 16
Support for Tough U.S. Approach Toward Iran, China In dispute over Iran s nuclear program, what s more important? Jan 2012 % Oct 2012 % Take a firm stand 50 56 Avoid military conflict with Iran 41 35 Other/ Don t know 10 9 100 100 Which is more important in dealing with China on economic issues? Mar 2011 Oct 2012 Building a stronger relationship 53 42 Getting tougher 40 49 Don t know 7 9 100 100 Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. October 4-7, 2012 People-Press survey. 17
Obama, Romney Tied on Foreign Policy, Romney Leads on China Who can do the better job Obama Romney % % Making wise decisions about foreign policy 47 43 China s trade policies 40 49 Iran s nuclear program 45 44 Political instability in Egypt, Libya 47 42 Based on registered voters. October 4-7, 2012 People-Press survey. 18
The Horse Race 19
Romney Support Grows Early- Mid Sept Late Sept/ Early Oct Mid Oct Gallup N/A Even +6 Romney NBC/WSJ +5 Obama +3 Obama Even Wash Post/ABC +1 Obama +2 Obama +1 Obama CBS +3 Obama N/A +2 Obama Pew +8 Obama +4 Romney N/A Based on likely voters. Polls were not conducted at the same time. 21
Presidential Race by Gender Men Women 75 75 Romney 50 47 50 49 Obama 44 45 25 25 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 22
Presidential Race by Age 18-29 30-49 75 75 50 25 52 35 50 25 51 45 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 75 50-64 65+ 75 50 52 40 50 55 38 25 25 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 23
Presidential Race by Race White non-hispanic Black non-hispanic 100 100 75 75 90 50 25 55 38 50 25 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 100 75 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Hispanic 69 3 50 25 24 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Based on registered voters. Hispanic values shown only for surveys with more than 100 Hispanic respondents. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 24
Romney Makes Gains, Stable Views of Obama 25
Romney s Favorability Improves Barack Obama Favorable Mitt Romney Unfavorable 50 48 55 43 55 50 50 49 48 45 42 48 45 38 55 47 52 50 41 37 45 50 46 Unfavorable 29 Favorable Nov 2011 Oct 2012 Nov 2011 Oct 2012 Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 26
Romney Support Strengthens Percent who STRONGLY support their candidate 60 38 64 34 68 68 Obama supporters 56 67 Romney supporters June July Sept Oct Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 27
Economic Confidence in Romney How confident are you that has the right set of goals and policies toward the economy Aug Oct Change % % Obama Confident 34 37 +3 Not confident 66 63-3 Romney Confident 27 35 +8 Not confident 73 64-9 Based on registered voters. NBC News/ Wall Street Journal October, 2012 survey. 28
Romney Advantage on Economy Budget deficit Jobs and unemployment Dealing with economy Dealing with taxes Being commander-in-chief Handling foreign policy Dealing with Medicare Handling Afghanistan Being knowledgeable/experienced Looking out for middle class Who would be better when it comes to Romney Obama -13-7 -6 +1 +3 +8 +9 +12 +13 +16 Dealing with women s issues +23 Based on registered voters. NBC/Wall Street Journal October, 2012 survey. 29
Swing States 30
Votes by State Solid Romney Leaning Romney Swing Leaning Obama Solid Obama Source: NY Times election map 31
Swing State Polls RealClearPolitics polling averages. Obama Romney Adv % % Nevada 49 46 +3 Obama Wisconsin 49.8 47 +2.8 Obama Iowa 48.8 46.8 +2 Obama Ohio 47.6 45.7 +1.9 Obama Virginia 48 48 Even Colorado 47.6 47.8 +0.2 Romney New Hampshire 48.4 47.4 +1 Romney Florida 46.6 48.4 +1.8 Romney North Carolina 44.7 50.3 +5.6 Romney 32
Swing Voters Divided On Issues Issues: Who would do the better job Obama Romney % % Adv Reducing the federal budget deficit 20 41 R+21 Improving the job situation 24 37 R+13 Dealing with taxes 33 33 even Making wise decisions on foreign policy 40 26 O+14 Dealing with Medicare 43 26 O+17 Dealing with health care 47 26 O+21 Who Has better ideas about the role of government in solving problems 35 33 O+2 Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they will change their mind (18% of voters). Figures read across, percent volunteering both, neither and don t know not shown. Statistically significant advantages in bold. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 33
But Like Obama s Traits Traits: Which candidate Obama Romney % % Adv Has new ideas 29 39 R+10 Is willing to work with other party 34 29 O+5 Is a strong leader 36 23 O+13 Takes more moderate positions 42 26 O+16 Is honest and truthful 34 14 O+20 Takes consistent positions on issues 43 20 O+23 Connects well with ordinary Americans 69 7 O+62 Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they will change their mind (18% of voters). Figures read across, percent volunteering both, neither and don t know not shown. Statistically significant advantages in bold. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 34
All Pew Global Attitudes Project reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org