Understanding Immigration: Key Issues in Immigration Debates and Prospects for Reform Presented by Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project Director judygans@email.arizona.edu
Udall Center Immigration Program Objectives Illuminate rather than advocate Focus on conceptual and analytic frameworks Engage a discussion at the political center Examine trade-offs Research and publications Provide credible information Avoid specific outcome agenda National and Arizona focus
Topics Global and national context Key issues in immigration debates Economic impacts Costs and contributions Illegal Immigration National security Policy debates and prospects for reform
A World-Wide Phenomenon UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants 3.3% of the world's population 30% in the Americas (Canada & US = 42 million immigrants) 20% in Europe Remaining 50% around world with largest share in Asia Cause and consequence of global economic integration in everything except labor Global remittances estimated at $150 billion per year Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.
U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration Architecture of family reunification Economic migration laws seek to: Minimize competition with U.S. workers Provide for scarce labor - Seasonal agricultural workers - Other seasonal workers - High skilled workers
Immigration to the U.S. Growing 40,000 16.0 35,000 14.0 30,000 12.0 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Number (000s) Percent 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 5,000 2.0 0 0.0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 Number % of Total Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau
35.7 Million Foreign Born in U.S. (2004 estimates*) Naturalized Citizens 11.3 million (32%) Legal Permanent Residents 10.4 million (29%) Refugee Arrivals 2.5 million (7%) Temporary Legal Residents 1.2 million (3%) Unauthorized Immigrants 10.3 million (29%) * Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
More and Different Countries of Origin 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1870 1920 1970 1990 Europe Asia Latin America All Other Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Significant Demographic Impacts 20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for 60% of U.S. population growth Source: Bean, Fank & Gillian Stevens, America s Newcomers and the Dynamics of Diversity, New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2003.
Economics Impacts
Immigrants Embedded in Labor Market Slow U.S. population growth, tight labor markets, and high wages Between 1990-2001, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force Example: Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom) U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration Strong pull factor Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002
Changed Profile of U.S. Labor Increases in proportion of low-skilled and high-skill labor Some crowding out of native-born workers Providing for scarce labor (i.e. agricultural labor, high tech workers) In the Short Run: Lowers wages of some native born workers In the Long Run: Shifts the mix of economic output with little or no impact on wages Source: Hanson, Gordon G., Why Does Immigration Divide America: Public Finance and Political Opposition to Open Borders, University of San Diego and NBER, March 2005.
Income Growth Has Varied
Sources of Income: Arizona 4th Quarter 2004 to 1st Quarter 2005: Total = 2.4% Retail Trade Construction Health Care Prof & Tech Services Finance & Insurance Wholesale Trade State & Local Govt. Accommod & Food Svc Military Farm Arts, ent & rec Utilities Admin & Waste Svd 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Contribution to Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Impacts Not Uniform Net economic impact is small (positive) but Large impacts on income distribution Distribution impacts shape opinions about immigration Benefits and costs distributed unevenly Owners of capital, owners of land, and employers gain most Taxpayers in high immigrant-receiving states bear immediate fiscal costs Source: Hanson, Gordon G., Why Does Immigration Divide America: Public Finance and Political Opposition to Open Borders, University of San Diego and NBER, March 2005.
Costs and Contributions - Fiscal Impacts -
Net Fiscal Impacts Central to Immigration Debates State and local impacts more negative Taxes paid vs. services used Social service benefits Education Health Care Federal impacts more positive Taxes paid vs. services used Social Security Federal social service benefits
Net Fiscal Impacts Are Conditional Low-skilled immigrants: earn relatively low wages contribute relatively little in taxes legal immigrants make greater use of public assistance programs than do natives Impact depends both on: Size and mix of immigrant population Generosity of state public services Impacts require long-term horizon
Political Challenge: Immigration increasingly equated with illegal immigration
Causes of Illegal Immigration Economic Incentives Trump Legal Structures 1. Global economic integration 2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration 3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to: i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibility ii. Inadequate funding of interior enforcement; iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs
Unauthorized Arrivals Exceed Legal Arrivals Since Mid-1990s 2004 Foreign-born population by period of arrival and legal status as of 2004 900 800 700 650 670 660 750 610 700 (000s) 600 500 400 450 300 200 140 100 0 1980s 1990-94 1995-1999 2000-Mar 04 Legal in 2004 Illegal in 2004 Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America (Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants) Europe & Canada 0.6 million (6%) Africa & Other 0.4 million (4%) Asia 1 million (10%) Other Latin America 2.5 million (24%) Mexico 5.9 million (56%) * Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Illegal Immigration Matters - To the immigrants themselves - To the United States
Immigration Status Impacts Employment 40% 35% 33% 35% 30% 27% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 15% 6% 17% 10% 16% 13% 10% 6% 8% 1% 3% 0% Service Occupations Construction & Extractive Production, Repair & Installation Sales & Administration Management, Business & Professional Transportation & Moving Industries Farm ing Native-born Workers Unauthorized Workers Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Immigration Status Impacts Income (Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004) $47,700 $47,800 $27,400 1.96 2.34 2.29 $24,300 $20,400 $12,000 Average Family Income Average Family Size Income Per Person Native-born Families Legal Immigrant Families Unauthorized Families Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Immigration Status Impacts Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group s 18-24 year old population, 2004) 50 49 45 40 35 30 25 32 25 25 29 30 32 25 20 18 15 15 10 9 10 5 0 Less than 12th Grade High School Grad Some College Batchelors or More Native-Born Legal Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Illegal Immigration Matters to the U.S. Failure to control borders: Undermines sovereignty & rule of law Creates national security risks Undermines formulation of coherent policy Makes the border a dangerous place It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.
Immigration & National Security
Immigration and National Security National security requires more than border control The 9/11 terrorists entered legally Enforcement not a substitute for intelligence Yet border control imperatives are obvious
Enforcement Has Focused on the Border Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985-2002 3,000,000 2,842,000 2,500,000 Dollars (000s) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 700,000 1,633,000 500,000 0 458,000 192,000 109,000 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Border Control Interior Investigations Detention & Removal/Intelligence Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.
Enforcement Has Been Uneven Historical ambivalence about enforcement Focus at border while interior enforcement is minimal No reliable system for verifying immigration Historical ambivalence about controlling immigration extent of control modulated by Limits to visible categories Adjustments to numbers of temporary visas Adjustments to enforcement intensity
Prospects for Reform
Politics of Reform System seen as broken Political stalemate Enforcement before reform vs. Reform in order to enforce What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants? Earned regularization vs. Amnesty
Ingredients of an Enforceable System Streamlining Legal economic migration channels Interior and border enforcement Reliable mechanisms for verifying employment eligibility Adequate funding and staffing Political will Adequate funding of immigration infrastructure
Temporary Worker Programs One mechanism for economic immigration Polarization over existing unauthorized population what to do with 11 million people? Limited provision for permanent economic immigration
Importing Labor is Complicated Workers vs. citizens Facilitates: Limiting rights Social divisions Inherent power imbalance Works against immigrant incorporation to society
Politics of Immigration Debates Immigrant Admission Should Be Immigrant Rights Should Be Expansive Expanded or Maintained Cosmopolitans Edward Kennedy (D-MA) Restricted Nationalist Egalitarians Diane Feinstein (D-CA) Restrictive Free-Market Expansionists Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Classic Exclusionists Tom Tancredo (R-CO) *From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.
Major Themes and Conclusions Today s immigration reflects a global economy Economic and fiscal impacts are complex Current laws reflects complex political crosscurrents and interests Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven