"Migration, Labor Markets and the Economic Integration of Migrants in Western Europe"

"Migration, Labor Markets and the Economic Integration of Migrants in Western Europe" Rainer Münz Senior Fellow, HWWI Head of Research, Erste Group Workshop Migration in the European Union Vienna, Nov 15, 2007 28/11/2007 page 1

Flows page 2

Migration patterns in the Europe 1950-1960 2001-2005 Migration gains and losses moderate losses: 0 to -2 strong losses: < -2 moderate gains: > 0 to +2 strong gains: > +2 page 3

Cumulative net flows of international migrants to/from EU27, 1950-2005 Thousands Cumulative Net Flow s (inflow s - outflow s) to/from EU27, 1950-2005 9000 7000 5000 3000 1000 Overseas emigration is balanced postcolonial return and labor migration Continued family reunions of labor migrants, in addition refugee and ethnic migration flows -1000-3000 1950-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2005 Late stage of overseas emigration Peak of labor migration, inflow of dependent family members starting Fall of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe leads to massive increase of ethnic and refuge flows as well as new labor migration Steady increase of regular and irregular migration from CEE, Africa, Middle East and Latin America page 4

Cumulative net flows of international migrants to/from EU27, 1950-2005 9000 7000 5000 Thousands Cumulative Net Flow s (inflow s - outflow s) to/from EU27, 1950-2005 Considerable increase of net-inflows 3000 1000-1000 -3000 1950-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2005 page 5

Cumulative net flows of international migrants to/from EU27, 1950-2005 Thousands Cumulative Net Flow s (inflow s - outflow s) to/from EU27, 1950-2005 9000 7000 5000 3000 1000-1000 -3000 1950-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2005 This is only a 5 years period page 6

Natural population change (births deaths) and net migration in Europe (EU27 in 2005) per 1000 population 25 20 15 10 5 In Europe migration is the main driver of population change Nat. pop. change Net. migration Total pop. change 0-5 EU 27 Germany UK France Austria Ireland Italy Spain Belgium Slovenia Hungary Poland Lithuania Romania Bulgaria -10 page 7

Fact No. 4: Immigration Accounts For 80% of Europe s Population Growth 2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2006 Excess of births Net migration gain Total population growth page 8

Stocks page 9

Europe EU27, EEA, CH Total population: 503 mn - EU15 389 mn - EU12 102 mn - other EEA + CH 12 mn Foreign-born pop 42 mn - share in% 8.4 % among them: non-eu 26 mn annual net increase 1.8 mn page 10

Main destination countries EU 27/EEA/CH: 42 mn foreign-born - Germany 10 mn - France 6 mn - UK 5 mn - Spain 5 mn - Italy 2.5 mn - Switzerland 1.6 mn - Austria 1.3 mn Russia: page 11 16 mn

Foreign-born population in EU/EEE, in millionmap and 4: Foreign-born in % populations Western and Central Europe (EU-25/EEA and Switzerland) foreign-born population under 5% of total population foreign-born population between 5 and 10% of total population foreign-born population between 10 and 15% of total population foreign-born population over 15% of total population Label Size of foreign-born population (thousands) Foreign-born population as % of total population 23 7,3 585 14,1 5.408 9,1 6.471 10,7 1.638 10,1 719 6,9 177 37,4 344 7,4 1.660 22,9 388 7,2 10.144 12,3 1.117 12,4 453 4,4 1.234 15,1 167 8,5 703 1,8 124 2,3 316 3,1 156 3,0 202 15,2 449 19,5 165 4,8 764 7,3 4.790 11,1 2.519 4,3 974 8,8 11 page 12 2,7 116 13,9

Fact No. 5: In Europe/EU27 some 42 million out of 500 million people are international migrants Diagramm 3: Immigration population in the EU-15 by origin (source: Münz and Fassmann, 2004) Migrant Population in EU 27 by Region of Origin, 2005 North Ame ric a 3 % Afric a, Asia, Middle Ea st 3 3 % Turke y 7 % othe r CEE/S EE 6 % Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 La tin Ame ric a, Ca ribbe a n 12 % EU CE 9 % EU We st 18 % EU S outh 10 % 14 million migrants between today s EU member states 28 million immigrants from third countries - Among them 19 million from Africa, South America, Asia page 13

Comparison of legal foreign residents and foreign-born population 14 12 Foreign nationals in % Foreign born in % 14 12 Foreign nationals in % Foreign born in % 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 Germany United Kingdom France Italy Spain 0 Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Hungary Romania Huge differences between EU15 (West, South) and EU10 (Central, East) page 14

Structure of foreign-born population page 15

Education page 16

Education levels of immigrants differ strongly between countries/regions of origin Education Level of Immigrant population by known country of birth 100% 90% 80% 70% Percent 60% 50% 40% High Medium Low 30% 20% 10% 0% EU15 south Turkey EU8 EU2, CEE EU15 Total Population EU15 west USA, Canada, Austral. Asia page 17

Educational levels of immigrants reflect labor market demands High M edium Low Born in country of residence Born in another EU27 country of residence EU 27 Born in an country outside EU27 page 18

Educational levels of immigrants reflect labor market demands As a result of selective migration and European labor market structures immigrants with low and high formal education are over- High Medium Low represented Born in country of residence Born in another EU27 country of residence Born in an country outside EU27 Ireland page 19

Educational levels of immigrants reflect labor market demands As a result of selective migration and European labor market structures immigrants with low and high formal education are overrepresented High M edium Low Born in country of residence Born in another EU27 country of residence Austria Born in an country outside EU27 page 20

Educational levels of immigrants reflect labor market demands As a result of selective migration and European labor market structures immigrants with low and high formal education are overrepresented High Medium Low Born in country of residence Born in another EU27 country of residence France Born in an country outside EU27 page 21

Employment page 22

Foreign labor force in 2005 19.4 mn legal immigrants represented 8.6% of Western and Central Europe s total work force 12.2 mn working foreign residents represented 5.4% of total work force Immigrants and foreign nationals are highly concentrated in certain regions/sectors Immigrants and foreign nationals are more likely to be unemployed page 23

Foreign labor force represents a significant part of the total EU labor force 30 25 20 Foreign-born Labor Force as % of Total Labor Force Foreign Labor Force as % of Total Labor Force both 45% 15 10 5 0 Austria Belgium Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Total Effects of different naturalization rates Effects of different access to citizenship via birth and/or privileged co-ethnic migration Effects of size of entry-cohorts/duration of stay page 24

Employment and unemployment rates of immigrants by countries/regions of origin 80 Employed Unemployment Rate 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EU15West EU15South EU8 EU2, CEE Turkey Africa, Middle East USA, Canada, Austral. Latin America, Caribb. Asia Total Immigrants EU15 Total Population Employment rates are significantly lower among immigrants from Turkey, Africa/Middle East and other parts of Asia. They are higher among immigrants from North America and Latin America. Unemployment rates are higher among most groups of immigrants. page 25

Between 2000-2005 the gap in employment between nationals and foreigners narrowed in EU15 80 70 2000 2005 60 50 Male Female 40 Gap 2000 11.2 18.5 30 Gap 2005 7.6 15.0 20 10 0 EU15 nationals EU15 foreigners EU15 nationals EU15 foreigners Males Females page 26

Comparison of employment rates of immigrants from Turkey and the Maghreb 80 70 60 Immigrants from Maghreb countries Nationals of Mahgreb countries Immigrants from Turkey Nationals of Turkey 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sweden Denmark Netherlands France Belgium Discrepancies in labor force participation vary by country of residence and in some countries) by citizenship status of immigrants page 27

Differences in employment, by gender, counties/regions of origin Employment rate in EU15 70 60 50 40 30 20 Male Foreign National Male Foreign Born Female Foreign National Female Foreign Born 10 0 EU 15 average EU15 outsid c.o.b. Non EU 15 Europe N, Africa, M, East Turkey All foreign nat'ies, migrants Country of birth/citizenship page 28

Employment rates of foreign born work force by country/region of birth, gender, and educational attainment 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 50 40 30 Turkey EU8 EU-South EU 15 average 60 50 40 30 Turkey EU8 EU-South EU 15 average 20 20 10 10 0 Low education Medium education High education 0 Low education Medium education High education Male Female page 29

Employment rates of foreign born work force by country/region of birth, gender, and educational attainment 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 50 40 30 Turkey EU8 EU-South EU 15 average 60 50 40 30 Turkey EU8 EU-South EU 15 average 20 20 10 10 0 Low education Medium education High education 0 Low education Medium education High education Male Female page 30

Differences in employment, by gender, counties/regions of origin Employment rate in EU15 70 60 50 Male Foreign National 40 Male Foreign Born 30 Female Foreign National Female Foreign Born 20 10 0 EU 15 average EU15 outsid c.o.b. Non EU 15 Europe N, Africa, M, East Country of birth/citizenship Turkey All foreign nat'ies, migrants Large discrepancies between ale and female migrants in particular among people from Turkey, North Africa and the Middle East page 31

Occupational structure page 32

Occupational structure by countries/regions of birth 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Highly skilled non-manual Medium skilled non-manual Low skilled non-manual Skilled manual Non-skilled manual Armed Forces 10 5 0 EU15 West EU15 South EU 8 EU2, CEE Turkey Africa, Middle East USA, Canada, Austral, Latin America, Caribb, Asia Total Immig. Workforce EU15 Total Workforce Immigrant Workforce by Country of Birth page 33

Sectoral occupation by countries/regions of birth 25 20 EU2, CEE Turkey EU15 Total Work-force 15 10 5 0 Agric,, fishing, mining Manufacturing Construction Wholesale, retail trade Hotels, restaurants Trans,, storage, communication Financial intermediation Real estate, renting, Research Public administ,, defense Education Health, social work Personal services Private households Underrepresentation of migrants in large parts of the public + educat. sectors Overrepresentation in less stable jobs like construction, hotel/restaurants, manufacturing sectors page 34

Unemployment page 35

Unemployment rates of non-eu citizens remain high Unemployment rates of population aged 15 to 64 by citizenship, 2005 40 35 30 25 Citizen of the country of residence Citizen of an other EU27 country Citizen of a country outside EU27 20 15 10 5 0 EU27 Germany Austria France Belgium Sw eden Spain United Kingdom Ireland Czech Republic Estonia While employment rates for third country nationals increased during the period 2000-2005, unemployment rates remained stable at about 18% (twice as high as those of EU-nationals) page 36

Male and female unemployment rates of immigrants by counties/regions of origin 30 25 Unemployment Rate (Percent), male Unemployment Rate (Percent), female 20 15 10 5 0 EU15West EU15South EU8 EU2, CEE Turkey Africa, Middle East USA, Canada, Austral. Latin America, Caribb. Asia Total Immigrants EU15 Total Population Differences are accentuated when comparing the unemployment rates of women and men, especially in the case of Turkish immigrants page 37

Citizens of third countries have higher unemployment rates than people born outside the EU* 40 35 30 25 Citizen of a country outside EU27 Born in a country outside EU27 20 15 10 5 0 EU27 Germany Austria France Belgium Sw eden Spain United Kingdom Ireland Czech Republic Estonia * This includes both citizens of third countries and naturalized immigrants. page 38

Conclusions What matters? Country of origin Education/skills Duration of stay Citizenship Culture page 39

Contact muenz@hwwi.org page 40