TENDENCIES IN ROMANIA'S EXPORT POTENTIAL ON THE EXTRA COMUNITY MARKETS

TENDENCIES IN ROMANIA'S EXPORT POTENTIAL ON THE EXTRA COMUNITY MARKETS MANEA MARINELA DANIELA ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, VALAHIA UNIVERSITY OF TÂRGOVIȘTE, m_manea7@yahoo.com DUMITRU FELICIA ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, VALAHIA UNIVERSITY OF TÂRGOVIȘTE, dumitru.felicia@yahoo.com Abstract: The current paper sets out to realize an analysis on the external market for the Romanian exporters and evaluate, at the same time, the development possibilities of the Romanian exports on the extra-comunity markets. Our process analyses the exterior commerce between 1990-2013 and aims to outline the dimension and the structure of export request for Romanian products, respectively to establish strategies for developing and expanding on third party markets. Key words: exterior commerce, extra-community markets, commercial deficit, exported products. JEL clasification: F14, F15, F59 1. Introduction: The economic global crisis, which seriously affected the European Union s countries, demands Romania to reconsider the exterior commerce as a factor for escaping the crisis. The international commerce represents a reference domain of economic reform in the countries that are still in transition. From this point of view, Romania has adopted a series of economic politics destined to geographical adjusting of its commercial changes meant to ameliorate the terms of exterior commerce through an inter-branch restructuring of the exported goods. However, in time, after 1989, our country shaped up to be a net importer which registered a permanent commercial deficit. This is the consequence of insufficient restructuring of economy and its inability to transform the imports in goods exported at an acceptable level. Nowadays, out of the countless problems the exterior Romanian commerce must deal with, the most significant ones aim at the increase of the degree of openness of the national economy in the conditions of extending the globalization effects, respectively the necessity of increasing the level of economic competition for exporting the Romanian products through the superior capitalization of the internal resources potential, of the labor force etc. 2. The general evolution of Romania s exterior commerce in the transition period Romania s commercial politics were oriented from the very beginning of the transition period towards two opposite directions: liberalizing the international transactions (at the beginning of the 90s) through eliminating the state monopoly, respectively intensifying the restrictions (especially between 1994-1996) in order to control the commercial deficit. In the transition period, both imports and exports were significantly influenced by the inflexible politics of the exchange rate, with incidences on the international commerce in which the exports were disadvantaged. The almost cyclic evolution of the over appreciated periods, respectively the overrating of the national coin, generated an appropriate evolution of the import and export volume. The structure of the economic activities was transposed in a considerable measure in the structure of international commerce: the very important role of state enterprises, that depend on the import of raw materials to an overwhelming extent, was translated through an exchange rate regime that is oriented towards providing cheap inputs for these entities, by maintaining a high exchange rate for the Romanian RON. Likewise, during this period, the politics adopted with view to adjust the international commercial exchanges aimed at the geographical diversification of commerce and sectorial restructuring on branches of the industry, of the 44

goods and the commercialized services. The first objective was reached without major difficulties, since Romania s exports were already oriented, to an important degree, ever since the socialist age, towards the west markets. The second objective changing the structure of the exported goods was, however, much more difficult to achieve to a large extent due to its conditioning by the speed of restructuring the economic activity ensemble, especially regarding exports. Therefore, after almost ten years of economic transformations, the period of time between 1990 1998 can be characterized, from the perspective of the international commerce through the following elements: a) the continuous growth of the international commerce s proportion in GDP (Gross Domestic Product); b) a relatively constant level of the commercial transactions. Regarding the proportion of the international commerce in GDP, compared to the current level at the beginning of the transition period, the volume commercialized through the international exchanges registered a growing tendency throughout time, its percentage in GDP grew from 40,21% in 1990 to 61% in 1998. This behavior is the direct result of the politics of liberalizing the exterior commerce, whose principal objective was opening the Romanian economy to the worldwide markets. Simultaneously, however, the growing percentage of commercial exchanges in GDP is equally the consequence of the decline registered by the GDP in real terms. Moreover, the growing rate of imports is permanently superior to the one afferent to the export volumes. The liberalization politics of the exterior commerce favored, therefore, the influx of exterior goods, while the quantity of exported goods remained at a low level. At the level of commercial transactions, for the period of time between 1996-1998 there was noted a relative stabilization of the volume of transactions, situated close to 20.000 million dollars per year. This level corresponds to a commercial deficit of approximately 15% of the total volume of commerce, which presupposes the existence of an under-capacity of export in economy. Generally, there are countries which are a net exporter, like there are net importers. Romania was, in its transition period, a net importer whose commercial deficit was hard to cover. It was utterly necessary that the economy know a rapid and ample restructuring, otherwise the deficit would have further eroded the national income, with negative implications on the degree of technological modernization of the entire economic activity. Since an important percentage of imports is represented by technologic equipment, while the biggest part of exports is realized in the light industry and the steel industry, the degree of competition of economy is fairly low. The goods exports from the transition period, belonging to the light industry, are characterized through a low level of work force incorporated in the finite product, simultaneously with a low percentage of the necessary physical capital in the manufacturing process. Analyzing the degree of covering the imports by the exports we noticed a slight growing tendency, however, its evolution shows the reduced capacity of the economy to ensure a superior level of exports for a given volume of imports. The situation above mentioned is the consequence of the high degree of dependence of the imports economy, materialized in the average value of GDP according to the imports and exports. On average, during the transaction period, in order to produce an additional PIB unit (1 US $), a volume of imports of 0,0532 US $ was necessary, while only 0,405 US $ from that produced unity could be exported. Romania thus continued to depend on imports, since the economy could not transform these imports in goods exported at an acceptable level. 3. Romania s exterior commerce between 2000 2011 Even after 2000 Romania continued to find itself in the position of net importer. Before adhering to the European Union, Romania s exports were fairly low, in 2011 reaching only 11.273 million euro. Between 2000 2011 there was registered a growth of the imports value of almost 4 times, respectively of the imports of approximately 3,86 times. The volumes of Romanian commercial exchanges register a clear ascending tendency, regardless if it regards exports, imports, trade balance or its deficit. The same ascending tendency was registered by the export by resident, as a consequence of the growth of total exports for the analyzed period of time, respectively the decrease in the country s population in the same period of time. Between 2000 2011 the dynamic of exports lightly overpassed the dynamic of imports; however, in the majority of the analyzed period the situation was reversed. The superiority of the imports growth rate in comparison with the exports growth rate proves that in Romania the politics of liberalization of exterior commerce had a net favor for the merchandise imports, while the quantity of exported goods remained at a reduced level. Already after 1990, the European Union had an important percentage in the total imports and exports, for which reason it may be said that Romania predominantly conducts economic exchanges with the EU countries. The percentages are considerably smaller with the other geographical regions/areas. This orientation of the Romanian exterior commerce that is more overwhelming towards the European Union and more reduced towards the other geographical areas, can be the expression of international conjectures, such as: ü in Middle East and African countries, the percentage of commercial exchanges registered a decline after 2000, especially between 2000 2003, as a consequence of the tensions and prolonged crisis in the area. Additionally, through its orientation towards a partnership with the USA for the military operations in the area, Romania lost its traditional relations with this geographical area, registering a considerable regress of its exchanges. However, this 45

market should be a priority for Romania, if we analyze the request registered by the Romanian products on this destination, also confirmed by the annual surplus of the commercial balance. After 2004 the Romanian exports registered a tendency towards continuous growth, the maximum of 2.926 million euro was registered in 2011, compared to imports which in the same year registered 631 million euro; ü with the EFTA group of countries, the level of commercial changes registered, until 2007, the year of Romania s adherence to the European Union, a negative balance for the trade balance, which was subsequently followed by an annual surplus of the commercial balance. However, the percentage of the Romanian commercial exchanges with these countries is reduced in value; ü in Asia Oceania, although the Romanian commercial exchanges registered ascending tendencies throughout all the period of time between 2000 2011, from the point of view of the negative balance of Romania s commercial balance, the area is not beneficial for our products, since it is the most competitive economic region at a global level at present (for example, the level of Romanian exports which situate at approximately 50% of the imports of this region on the whole period of time between 2000 2011); ü Romania s commercial exchanges with the countries in North America, especially with the USA, are not beneficial from the perspective of commercial deficit, although the commerce registered a preponderantly ascending trend after 2000; ü in contrast, we can consider the South American countries a market with a high potential for the Romanian products, especially at present, as EU members and beneficiaries of free exchange agreement with Latin American countries. We note that this ascending trend of Romanian commercial exchanges with South American countries began after the 2007 EU adherence, although subsequently, along with the triggering of the economic crisis in 2008, significant decreases were registered. Therefore, after 2000, the EU percentage in Romanian commercial exchanges is overwhelming, as it can be seen in the chart below[1]: Chart no. 1: The percentage of Romania s exports and imports in the commerce with EU, between 2000 2011 Year Exports in EU percentage in the Imports in EU percentage in exports total (%) the imports imports (%) 2000 65,5 50,4 2001 63,8 52,3 2002 67,8 52,5 2003 67,2 57,7 2004 67,7 60,7 2005 67,6 62,2 2006 67,7 62,6 2007 71,9 71,1 2008 70,7 70,7 2009 74,3 73,1 2010 75,1 72,5 2011 71,1 72,6 Source: Cornel Albu coordination, Strategy and politics studies (SPOS) 2012, Bucharest, 2013, page 159 4. Extra-community commerce Gradually, in the exterior commerce, at a decisional level, there was outlined the necessity of a coordination of the existent instruments for promoting and developing export and a strategic response at the challenges of global competition. Therefore, beginning with 2004, after amble debates, three National Export Strategies (NES) were elaborated, for the periods of time between 2004 2009, 2010 2014, respectively 2014 2020. Romania needed these strategic cycles concerning development and diversification of services of support for potential exporters, the increase of entrepreneurship appetite, innovation and internationalization of the Romanian companies, respectively for diversifying the exports and their reorientation towards other countries outside of EU. After the triggering of the economic crisis, a tendency appeared of reorienting the Romanian exports towards emerging markets outside the EU, less affected by the crisis. Although the preponderant geographical orientation of exports is maintained towards the European Union countries by 70,5% out of the total exports, however, after 2010 the situation changed significantly. For example, for 2011, both the value of Romania s exports and the one of imports from extra-community countries have continued to grow in a constant rhythm (of 24,9% and, respectively 16,2%). The value of extracommunity exports was 13 billion euro, and the value of imports was almost 15 billion euro, the increase of exports in a more accelerated rhythm than imports determining the deficit of the commercial balance of Romania with the countries outside the EU in 2011 close to approximately 2 billion euro (a 20,3% decrease in comparison to 2010). 46

Taking into account both commercial flows, export and import, Turkey, Russia and China, in these order, remained in 2011 the main commercial partners for Romania outside of EU. The highest commercial deficits were registered by Romania in relation to Kazakhstan and China (little over 2 billion euro) and Russia (approximately 1 billion euro). An analysis of Romanian exports for the first five months of 2013 show over a 40% growth in many extracommunity countries like Canada (55,3%), the Russian Federation (41,2), India (41,3%), Jordan (317,3%), Libya (141,0%), Lebanon (87,8%), Algeria (66,0%), Iraq (89,8%), Mexico (87,1%). According to the Economy Ministry, significant imports and exports increases were also registered for the mentioned period of time, in China (15,4%), Brazil (26,0%), the USA (5,6%), Norway (26,9%), Columbia (23,1%), Saudi Arabia (23,0%), Turkey (17,9%), Australia (29,8%), Vietnam (16,0%), Singapore (4,5%), Georgia (45,3%), Belarus (103,4%), Kazakhstan (82,6%), Azerbaijan (115,3%), Thailand (146,5%) and Togo (646,9%). The commercial deficit decreased last year by 41,3% compared to 2012, to 25,21 billion RON (5,7 billion euro), after the exports increased by 9,1% to 219,12 billion RON (49,6 billion euro), reaching the historical maximum, while the imports advanced by 0,2% to 244,33 billion RON (55,2 billion euro). Therefore, the FOB exports amounted to 219,12 billion RON (49,56 billion euro), and CIF imports reached 244,33 billion RON (55,26 billion euro) (see chart no.1 and no. 2). The FOB-CIF commercial deficit reached 2,21 billion RON (5,7 billion euro), less by 17,77 billion RON (3,9 billion euro) than the one registered in 2012. Figure no.1 The structure of Romanian products export for 2013 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 35.0 29.8 14.1 9.9 7.8 3.4 Figure no 2 The structure of Romanian products import for 2013 Machines and transportation equipment 42.0 Other products 32.5 Foodservice goods, drinks and Raw materials and consumables Chemical and connected products Mineral fuel, lubricants etc 8.5 6.2 5.6 5.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 The value of extra-community goods exchanges in 2013 (Extra UE28) reached 66,61 billion RON (15,05 billion euro) for exports and 59,32 billion RON (13,4 billion euro) for imports, representing 30,4 from the total exports and 24,3 from the total imports. Important percentages in the structure of exports and imports were held last year by the 47

following groups of products: machines and transportation equipment (42% for export and 35% for export) and other manufactured products (32,5% for export and 29,8% for import). In December 2013, according to the preliminary estimations of the National Statistics Institute, the FOB exports amounted to 17,18 billion RON (3,85 billion euro), and the CIF imports amounted to 19,39 billion RON (4,35 billion euro). The exports advanced by 21,2% to values expressed in RON (22,5% in euro) in comparison to December 2012, and imports grew by 7% in RON (8,1 in euro). In comparison with November, however, exports were reduced by 14,5% in RON (14,7% in euro), and imports by 11,2% (11,5% in euro). The commercial deficit in December reached 2,2 billion RON (494,5 million euro), smaller by 1,73 billion RON (382,7 million euro) than the one registered in December 2012. The top main extra-community countries partnered with Romania s commercial relationships in 2013 are rendered in the following chart: Chart no.2 Export partner countries in 2013 Position Country Percentage in the export total (%) 4 Turkey 5,4 9 Russian Federation 2,8 15 USA 1,8 17 Ukraine 1,6 18 Rep. Moldova 1,3 20 Serbia 1,0 Chart no. 3 Import partner countries in 2013 Position Country Percentage in the import total (%) 7 Russian Federation 4,0 9 China 3,6 10 Turkey 3,5 11 Kazakhstan 3,0 19 USA 1,0 From the data presented above, an important commercial deficit on countries and products in 2013 was registered in: ü Russian Federation for Oil for -792,1 million euro; ü Kazakhstan 99,7% for Oil ; ü China 13,6% for Telephonic devices and Automated machines of data processing. Positive balances were mainly registered with Turkey, Moldova, USA and Ukraine. If we only analyze the volume of the commercial exchanges between Romania and Moldova, in 2013 it reached 1,135 billion dollars, with approximately 170 million (almost 16%) more than the previous year, breaking the record of commerce between the two countries. Romanian exports in Moldova reached 722 million dollars, an increase of 16%, which represents 13% of the total import volume of Moldova [2]. At the same time, Romania imported merchandise of almost 413 million dollars, an increase of over 15%. Romania is the second commercial partner of Moldova, after Russia (more than 1,4 billion dollars), followed by Ukraine (800 million dollars) and Turkey (660 million). Lately, a reorientation of the exterior Romanian commerce can be noticed towards extra-community countries and also a recovery of the foodservice products export. In 2013 Romania recorded a historical surplus for foodservice products, of 3,2 million euro. For the first time after the Revolution, our country became a net exporter of foodservices products from agriculture. 5. Conclusions Despite a rather unfavorable international context, we can claim that our country registered a clear tendency of amelioration of structure and geographical division of exterior commerce, as an effect of continuous growth of the economy s performances, as well as the external competition of Romanian products. If between 1991 2000 the structure of the Romanian economy was not capable to register increases in real terms, Romania depending on imports all this time, after 2000 the situation changes. Until 2009, at least, the Romanian economy did not evolve linearly. The EU adherence in 2007 meant new pressures on the Romanian exporters in what regards adapting to the unique market s requirements. Despite the pessimistic provisions, Romania had good post-adherence performance, so that during the entire period of the first national strategy of export 2005 2009 a superior growth of exports was registered, reaching its historical peak in 2008. The start of the global financial crisis in 2009 brought with it a compression of consumption, a decrease in orders and massive delays in recovering receivables, dramatic salary decreases in comparison with 2008 by 20%, of the fusion and acquisition markets by almost 70%. However, the exports registered a less severe decline 48

than imports, and as a consequence of focusing the commercial exchanges on durable competitive advantages, respectively aiding the Romanian companies in manifesting their presence on the global markets. Starting from the vision of stimulating and growth of the firms capacity of obtaining competitive durable advantages, of being innovative, specific to SNE 2005 2009, the new 2014 2012 value chain aims at increasing the firms ability to seize and add value through integrating in the national value chain the marketing and promoting activities, design, innovation, branding and adapting in a consequence manner the management abilities. In order to register export performance, Romania had to feature powerful integrated institutions of promoting, aiding and development of the commercial exchanges as well as a complex of aiding tools which the specific institutions administer. The good practices highlight the following essential aspects of aiding export [3]: ü powerful central and regional aiding institutions that work in a network and coordinate the aiding networks; ü unifying in a unique coordination institution of the external aiding network with the internal ones; ü the consistent financing of the aiding tools from the central and local, regional budgets; ü assessment and impact measurement and strategic permanent planning of aiding tools which do not only limit to organizing events in the exterior, but also branding, consulting and training programs, or market researches; ü functional partnership with business environments both through their associative structures and directly, with the exporting firms; ü permanent adapting of the aiding tools; ü externalizing towards private expertize of fulfilling some services and aiding services, with public sector monitoring; ü institutional capacity and efficiency. Besides the good practices above mentioned, a series of measures can be added that can increase the exterior commerce s volumes, such as: ü the consistent increase of budgetary funds allotted for the stimulation of the exterior commerce, following the example of other states which register performances on export; ü stimulating the foreign investments directly through creating a favorable business environment, of an adequate and stable legislative frame, of a fiscal stability, but also on a more general plan of a political stability; ü the increase of the number of commercial representative, of the personnel s number and of the quality of the employers, especially in those places on the globe with an attracting potential regarding the international commerce for Romania; ü stimulating the specialists activity who activate within the foreign representatives concerning the increase of Romania s commercial performances; ü a more efficient promoting of the country brand as well as of some national brands with superior export potential. 6. Bibliography [1] Albu C. coordinator, Strategy and politics studies (SPS) 2012, European Institute from Romania, Bucharest, 2013; [2] ***, National Bureau of Statistics of Chișinău; [3] Economy Ministry, Department of Foreign Trade and International Relations, National Export Strategy 2014 2020, page 117. 49