Education, financial markets and economic growth Lucas Papademos European Central Bank 35th Economics Conference on Human Capital and Economic Growth Österreichische Nationalbank Vienna, 21 May 1
Outline I. Education and economic growth II. Education, financial development and economic performance III. Policy implications 2
Education and economic growth: conceptual framework Aggregate Output = f [Capital (physical and human), Employment, Technological Progress] Growth of per capita aggregate output: Investment Human capital accumulation Labour utilisation growth Total factor productivity growth 3
Determinants of human capital Education quantity of formal education (average years of schooling) quality of education On-the-job training and learning, cognitive skills Health status (e.g. life expectancy) 4
Direct effects of education on economic growth (I) Education as a component of human capital and a factor of production (extended neoclassical growth theory) Macroeconomic evidence: Affluent countries are relatively more richly endowed with human capital; Fastest growing economies have also experienced rapid human capital accumulation; Recent research based on improved statistics confirms: better schooling and faster growth go together independently of other relevant factors of economic development (e.g. physical capital accumulation, country-specific factors). 5
Income and education level High income OECD countries Real per capita GDP in 2000 (in US dollars) 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 PRT ITA ESP ISL FRA AUS BEL GRC IRL NLD JPN GBR CHE DNK FIN KOR USA CAN SWE 4 6 8 10 12 Average Years of Schooling Source: Data from Barro-Lee (2001) and Penn World Tables; ECB calculations NZL NOR 6
Human capital accumulation and income growth All countries (1960 2000) High income OECD countries (1960 2000) Average annual real per capita growth rate -.02 0.02.04.06 Hong Kong Singapore Thailand Ireland Japan Portugal Sri Lanka Spain Israel Mauritius Indonesia Lesotho Pakistan Italy Ghana Belgium India Greece Finland AustriaFranceIceland Denmark Brazil TurkeyUS Netherlands Australia UK Chile Syria Paraguay SwedenMexico Nepal Costa Rica Ecuador Philippines Malawi New Zealand Iran Mozambique Guatemala El Salvador South Africa Jamaica Argentina Mali Cameroon Peru Bolivia Uganda Venezuela Kenya Togo Zambia Senegal Nicaragua Niger Taiwan Malaysia Norway Jordan South Korea 0.05.1.15.2 Annual Change in Average Years of Schooling Average annual real per capita growth rate.01.02.03.04.05.06 Ireland Japan Portugal Spain Austria Italy Greece Belgium Iceland France Finland United States Denmark Canada Netherlands Australia United Kingdom Sweden Switzerland New Zealand Norway South Korea 0.05.1.15.2 Annual Change in Average Years of Schooling Source: Data from Barro-Lee (2001) and Penn World Tables; ECB calculations 7
Direct effects of education on economic growth (II) Education as an input of production Microeconomic evidence and causality assessment: More years of formal schooling lead to higher wages; Private returns on education estimated to be between 6.5%- 9.0%: An additional year of schooling leads to 7.5% higher income on average over working life; Social returns to schooling are most likely larger due to human capital externalities, i.e. knowledge spillovers from more educated workers to less educated ones; Causality established by employing innovative approaches and techniques (e.g. studies of twins). 8
Labour force quality and GDP growth Quality of education is also highly relevant, notably: quality of teachers (education level; graduate studies; training) teacher-pupil ratios public spending in education Internationally standardised tests (e.g. in math and science) Macroeconomic evidence: Differences in education quality explain more of the growth variations across countries than quantity measures (such as average years of schooling; share of college graduates, etc.); Higher quality of the labour force also contributes to labour productivity growth (evidence from the euro area). 9
Indirect effects of education on growth (I) Education also influences economic growth indirectly through its impact on other growth determinants, such as: labour force participation overall labour utilisation total factor productivity skill-bias of new technologies capital-skill complementarities 10
Indirect effects of education on growth (II) Education positively influences labour force participation and labour utilisation: the higher the education level, the higher the participation in the labour force; more educated workers are more likely to be employed (e.g. in 2006, the employment rate in the euro area for university graduates was 83.5% compared to 57.2% for less educated persons); education decreases duration of unemployment. 11
Education and labour utilisation Euro area labour force participation (in thousands of persons in the age group 25 to 59) 1996 2006 Diff. 1996-2006 Education total females total females total females below secondary total employment 34197 13235 32561 12810 unemployed 5348 2619 3751 1911 inactive 20445 16538 15478 11737 participation ratio (in %) 65.9 48.9 70.1 55.6 4.2 6.7 above secondary total employment 43407 18084 52171 23288 unemployed 4220 2247 4158 2109 inactive 10339 7583 10485 7497 participation ratio (in %) 82.2 72.8 84.3 77.2 2.1 4.4 tertiary total employment 21581 8893 31681 14933 unemployed 2619 1532 1911 1592 inactive 2463 1730 3492 2492 participation ratio (in %) 90.8 85.8 90.6 86.9-0.2 1.1 Source: Eurostat, Labour Force Survey; data for 2006 is up to 2006 Q3 12
Indirect effects of education on growth (III) Education supports innovation and the rapid adoption of new technologies, especially in view of the skill-bias of modern technology: countries with high human capital endowments use existing technologies better and innovate more; education, research & development and entrepreneurial activity are especially important for advanced economies (like the euro area) that are closer to the technological frontier; technological advances (e.g. ICT) in the 1970s-1990s have been biased towards highly skilled labour, i.e. favoured educated workers; human capital is particularly important for the adoption of technologies that augment existing skills. 13
Education and the skill-bias of technological change (1) Education is especially important for the growth of knowledge-intensive sectors, like pharmaceuticals or computers/office equipment. Average years of schooling at the industry level Industry HC Intensity HCINT(SCH) 10 11 12 13 14 321 323 324 331 332 322 353 385 352 383 354 382 3841 355 3843 3411 341 369 356 362 381 372 371 361 3211 3522 3825 384 3832 390 3511 313513 314 311 342 Industry Skill Intensity High-Skill 3822: Drugs and pharmaceuticals 3825: Office and computing 353: Petroleum refineries 3511: Chemicals 342: Printing and publishing Low-Skill 321:Textile 3211: Spinning 323: Leather 322: Apparel 324: Footwear -.01 -.005 0.005.01 Estimated Coefficient on Initial Schooling Level (in 1980) Source: Ciccone and Papaioannou (2005) and UNIDO 14
Education and the skill-bias of technological change (1I) Educated societies (i.e. with better quality education) were more successful in adopting knowledge-intensive new technologies during the 1980s/1990s. Average years of schooling at the industry level Industry HC Intensity HCINT(SCH) 10 11 12 13 14 353 384 383 354 382 313 3513 3841 355 3411 3843 341 356 362 369 372 381 371 331 332 321 3211 324 323 322 390 314 3832 351 3522 3825 3511 -.05 0.05.1.15.2 Estimated Coefficient on Labor Force Quality (LFQUAL2) 385 311 342 Industry Skill Intensity High-Skill 3822: Drugs and pharmaceuticals 3825: Office and computing 353: Petroleum refineries 3511: Chemicals 342: Printing and publishing 321:Textile 3211: Spinning 323: Leather 322: Apparel 324: Footwear Low-Skill Source: Ciccone and Papaioannou (2005) and UNIDO 15
Indirect effects of education on growth (IV) Education can foster investment in physical capital due to capital-skill complementarities: Physical capital is relatively more important for skillintensive sectors and tasks; Effects of computerisation in the United States: Capital invested in information and communication technologies (ICT) complements educated workers and substitutes low-skilled employees; ICT capital complements cognitive tasks and substitutes manual tasks. 16
The financial system and economic growth Financial sector development and efficiency can foster economic growth in various ways: 1. Positive impact on investment and growth: see e.g. cross-country studies on effects of financial liberalisation; and banking deregulation: 0.5-1.0% increase in investment, reduction of the cost of capital by 100bp; 2. Positive impact on productivity (efficiency of production): sustained increase in total factor productivity; especially beneficial for industries which for technological reasons depend on external finance; 17
Financial development and capital reallocation Well-developed financial systems support Schumpeterian creative destruction : in countries with deep capital markets and efficient financial intermediaries, capital is reallocated more rapidly across firms and sectors, thus increasing the economy s total productivity growth; in Europe especially, financial development and market integration across borders is important to facilitate capital reallocation, promote innovation and strengthen competition (see recent ECB research). 18
Financial development and capital reallocation Positive relationship between the efficiency of capital reallocation (i.e. fast response to new investment opportunities) and the size of capital markets All countries High-income countries 0 0.5 1 Investment-Value Added Growth Elasticity DEU (W) NZL ITA FRA GBR DNK AUT JPN BEL KOR ESP USA HKG GTM IRL ZWE AUS SWE PER GRC NOR NLD MAR FIN CAN VEN SGP PRT IRN CYP MYS URY LBY MEX ECU EGY TUN CHL TUR PHL ISR MWI JOR CMR COL MLT ZMB IND NGA SLVPAK KEN TZA KWT BGD ETH IDN FJI BRB SWZ BOL 0 0.5 1 1.5 Financial Development Investment-Growth elasticity estimated: controlling for country fixed-effects Investment-Value Added Growth Elasticity 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 ITA GRC KWT DNK BEL MLT BRB PRT ISR NZL AUT FRA ESP KOR IRL FIN CYP NOR GER AUS CAN GBR SWE NLD SGP JPN HKG 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Financial Development USA Investment-Growth elasticity estimated: controlling for country fixed-effects Source: Ciccone and Papaioannou (2007); UNIDO; based on Wurgler (2000) 19
Financial literacy and education Financial literacy is important to reap the full benefits of financial innovation: essential for proper retirement planning, diversification of financial risk, participation in stock markets; especially in context of ageing populations and shift from public to privately-funded pension schemes. Pervasive financial illiteracy even in advanced economies: in particular among less educated, lower-income groups; programmes to enhance financial literacy are needed and can be successful; best means to increase the level of financial literacy is to invest in education. 20
Financial integration and development and monetary policy Improved functioning of monetary union through the development and integration of Europe s financial system: deep and integrated financial markets facilitate the transmission of the single monetary policy across the euro area is a smooth and effective manner; better risk-sharing contributes to a more balanced systemic response to asymmetric shocks and a greater synchronisation of business cycles. Overall, financial integration and development will help reduce the volatility of output and employment across the euro area. 21
Education, productivity and monetary policy Education, via its positive effects on productivity growth and labour utilisation, influences the environment within which monetary policy operates: raises the growth potential of the economy, thus increasing the speed limit at which the economy can grow in a sustained manner that is consistent with price stability; higher potential growth in the euro area is especially important in view of ageing populations; fosters labour market adaptability and efficiency, as well as mobility (across sectors, firms and borders) and thus facilitates the functioning of an important adjustment mechanism, especially in a monetary union. 22