Outside and inside at the same time? Lessons from Norway for Brexit Karen Helene Ulltveit-moe Professor, University of Oslo Member of the Executive Board of the Norwegian Central Bank Member of the EEA review committee 2010-2012
Outline An alternative association to the EU the EEA 20 years of experience as an outsider Trade FDI Migration and the labour market
What is the EEA? EEA brings together the EU and 3 out of 4 EFTA countries. EEA is an international agreement that allows the EFTA states to participate fully in the Single Market. covers the four freedoms covers competition and state aid rules covers horizontal policies on consumer protection, company law, environment, social policy and statistics provides for cooperation in several flanking policies, e.g. research, education, employment, culture and enterprise entered into force in 1992 was thought to be a temporary agreement. EEA is a dynamic agreement: the common rules of the EEA agreement are updated continuously with new EU legislation
What is the EEA not? EEA does not cover common agriculture and fisheries policies (although provisions on trade in these products) EEA does not cover the customs union, common trade policy, common foreign and security policy justice and home affairs direct and indirect taxation
EEA review 2012 - Main messages A government appointed committee reviewed Norway s agreements with the EU 2010-2012 examining the political, legal, administrative, economic and other social consequences of the EEA Agreement but was explicitly not asked to discuss alternative arrangements. The committee concluded that despite being outside the EU Norway has seen "extensive Europeanisation" in the past 20 years EU law has been incorporated into around 170 (of 600) Norwegian statues and approx 1000 Norwegian regulations ¾ member: Norway has incorporated approx three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation. Norwegian authorities neither can nor wish to isolate Norway from ever closer and binding integration processes in the EU Norway is far more closely associated with the EU than most realise.
EEA review 2012 - Main messages cont d Norway is neither completely outside nor fully inside Inherent structural tensions and problems, but has worked much better than many expected. Large economic benefits, but great democratic deficit since Norway has to adopt EU policies "without voting rights". Norway is not represented in decision-making processes that have direct consequences for Norway and has no significant influence on them. The form of association with the EU dampens political engagement and debate in Norway and makes it difficult to monitor the Government and hold it accountable in its European policy. The democratic deficit is the price Norway pays for enjoying the benefits of European integration without being a member of the organisation, that is driving these developments. The EEA has ensured a stable and relatively predictable framework for relations with the EU, Norway s most important economic partner. The EEA is a cheap agreement: Compared to natural peers, e.g. Sweden and Germany, Norway pay considerably less relative to GDP (around 1/3)
Trade Norway s share of trade with EEA approx the same as in 1994 Even though Norwegian export has increased by 40 percent Intra-EEA trade has increased even in times where the emerging markets have been on the rise 250 200 150 Norway's Trade with the EU Forgone trade opportunities? Baier et al (2008) estimate that the trade effect the EU is 3-4 times higher than that of the EEA, i.e. a significantly bigger positive effect on trade from EU membership than from EEA association. 100 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Export (Mainland) to the EU Import from EU Intra-EU Trade
Trade What have we learnt? Non-tariff barriers matter: The Single Market versus Customs union, EU VAT & WTO Firms suffer from NTBs related to Norway not being member of the EU Customs union and the EU VAT SMEs move business to Sweden to avoid obstacles Firms/Industries not covered by the EEA have suffered Lack of common competition and state aid rules has allowed for antidumping og anti-subsidieprocedures against the fishery industry Trade with the EEA has meant smooth and slow structural change with less adjustment costs as compared to the opening of WTO towards the East Trading with similar countries gives more modest gains but also less pain and lesser problems of redistribution
FDI
Foreign Direct Investment Norway and the EU versus intra-eu FDI (1999=100) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Outward FDI: Norway to the EU Intra EU FDI Inward Inward FDI: the EU to Norway 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Eurostat (FDI stock, 1999=100)
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 FDI stock (Current NOK) FDI Stock(Index) Foreign Direct Investment Norway vs. Sweden, Switzerland and Germany 250000 3000 200000 2500 2000 150000 1500 100000 1000 500 50000 0 0 Inward FDI to Norway from EU15 Inward FDI to Sweden from EU15 Inward FDI to Germany from EU15 Inward FDI to Norway from EU15 Inward FDI to Sweden from EU15 Inward FDI to Switzerland from EU15 Source: Eurostat
FDI The lack of complete integration into the EU Lack of knowledge about the EEA agreement Uncertainty about how stable and predictable the EEA agreement is relative to EU membership has probably had a negative impact on business development and FDI But so has probably also High costs Limited home market Impossible to disentangle
Immigration
Growth in immigration from EU15-countries (1998=100) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Immigration to Germany Immigration to Sweden Immigration to Norway Immigration to Switzerland 0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Growth in immigration from new EU members (1998=100) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Immigration to Germany immigration to Norway immigration to Sweden Immigration to Switzerland
Impact of the EEA on the labour market Significant labour migration from the East without tensions Still stricter labour market regulation (e.g. working hours) possible because most labour market directives are minimum directives Based on e.g. the act ensuring the general application of collective agreements a downward pressure on wages due to labour immigration has been dampened. Still low wage inequality, i.e. very different from the UK Increasing challenges due to a generous welfare system but also due to structural change triggered by the oil price fall Lessons for the UK: if you want to dampen the impact of labour migration, barring your borders is not the solution, while national policies are.
Good luck!
How integrated in the EU? Internal EEA trade (export +import): EEA countries trade with other EEA countries as share of total trade (2010) 90.0 % 80.0 % 70.0 % 60.0 % 50.0 % 40.0 % 30.0 % 20.0 % 10.0 % 0.0 %