The Popula(on of New York City Recent PaFerns and Trends

TM The Popula(on of New York City Recent PaFerns and Trends Presenta(on for the Macaulay Honors College of the City University of New York January 28, 2014 Joseph Salvo POPULATION DIVISION

New York City is Big and Dynamic

Population Change for the 10 Largest Cities in the U.S., 2000 to 2012 Ranked by Population in 2012 Rank Geographic Area Total Population NYC and Boroughs 2000 2012 Population Change 2000-2012 Number Percent 1 New York, NY* 8,008,278 8,336,697 328,419 4.1 2 Los Angeles, CA* 3,694,820 3,857,786 162,966 4.4 3 Chicago, IL 2,896,016 2,714,844-181,172-6.3 Brooklyn, NY 2,465,326 2,565,635 100,309 4.1 Queens, NY* 2,229,379 2,272,771 43,392 1.9 4 Houston, TX* 1,953,631 2,161,686 208,055 10.6 Manhattan, NY 1,537,195 1,619,090 81,895 5.3 5 Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 1,547,607 30,057 2.0 6 Phoenix, AZ* 1,321,045 1,488,759 167,714 12.7 Bronx, NY 1,332,650 1,408,473 75,823 5.7 7 San Antonio, TX* 1,144,646 1,383,194 238,548 20.8 8 San Diego, CA* 1,223,400 1,338,354 114,954 9.4 9 Dallas, TX* 1,188,580 1,241,108 52,528 4.4 10 San Jose, CA* 894,943 982,783 87,840 9.8 *Achieved population peak in 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census PL 94-171 Files; 2012 American Community Survey

Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City 2000-2010 Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration -150-100 -50 0 50 100 Thousands Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; United States Department of Homeland Security as revised by

How the Foreign- Born Define New York City

Total Population by Nativity New York City, 1970 to 2012 Percent Foreign- born 1970 6,457,740 1,437,058 18.2 1980 5,401,440 1,670,199 23.6 1990 5,239,633 2,082,931 28.4 2000 5,137,246 2,871,032 35.9 2012 5,200,105 3,136,592 37.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Native-Born Millions Foreign-Born Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970 to 2000; 2012 American Community Survey

Foreign-Born by Area of the World New York City, 1970-2011 Total Foreign-born = 1,437,058 1,670,199 2,082,931 2,871,032 3,059,912 100% 80% 60% 40% All others Africa Europe Caribbean, nonhispanic Asia Latin America 20% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2000 censuses; 2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

Top Ten Sources of the Foreign-born Population New York City and the United States, 2012 New York City United States Dominican Republic 13.0% Mexico 28.2% All Other 44.6% China* 11.2% Mexico 5.8% Jamaica 5.7% All Other 40.6% China* 5.6% Colombia 2.5% India 2.6% Haiti 3.2% Trinidad & Tobago 2.9% Ecuador 4.1% Guyana 4.5% Guatemala 2.2% Dominican Republic 2.4% Korea 2.7% Cuba 2.7% India 4.8% Philippines 4.6% Vietnam 3.1% El Salvador 3.1% Total = 3,154,955 * Includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Total = 40,738,224 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

Total and Foreign-born Population New York City and Boroughs, 2000 and 2011 2000 2011 Change Number Number Number Percent New York City Total Population 8,008,278 8,244,910 236,632 3.0 Foreign-born 2,871,032 3,066,599 195,567 6.8 Bronx Total Population 1,332,650 1,392,002 59,352 4.5 Foreign-born 385,827 471,136 85,309 22.1 Brooklyn Total Population 2,465,326 2,532,645 67,319 2.7 Foreign-born 931,769 946,511 14,742 1.6 Manhattan Total Population 1,537,195 1,601,948 64,753 4.2 Foreign-born 452,440 461,325 8,885 2.0 Queens Total Population 2,229,379 2,247,848 18,469 0.8 Foreign-born 1,028,339 1,089,187 60,848 5.9 Staten Island Total Population 443,728 470,467 26,739 6.0 Foreign-born 72,657 98,440 25,783 35.5 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census-Summary File 3; 2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

Total and Foreign-born Population New York City and Boroughs, 2000 and 2011 2000 2011 Number Percent Number Percent New York City Total Population 8,008,278 100.0 8,244,910 100.0 Foreign-born 2,871,032 35.9 3,066,599 37.2 Bronx Total Population 1,332,650 100.0 1,392,002 100.0 Foreign-born 385,827 29.0 471,136 33.8 Brooklyn Total Population 2,465,326 100.0 2,532,645 100.0 Foreign-born 931,769 37.8 946,511 37.4 Manhattan Total Population 1,537,195 100.0 1,601,948 100.0 Foreign-born 452,440 29.4 461,325 28.8 Queens Total Population 2,229,379 100.0 2,247,848 100.0 Foreign-born 1,028,339 46.1 1,089,187 48.5 Staten Island Total Population 443,728 100.0 470,467 100.0 Foreign-born 72,657 16.4 98,440 20.9 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census-Summary File 3; 2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

Top Five Countries of Birth New York City and Boroughs, 2011 All Others 60.0% Dom. Rep. 12.4% China 11.4% New York City Jamaica 5.5% Guyana 4.6% Mexico 6.1% Ghana 4.3% Ecuador 4.7% All Others 37.7% Mexico 9.0% Bronx Jamaica 11.2% Dom. Rep. 33.1% All Others 61.3% Brooklyn China 13.7% Tr. & Tob. 5.3% Jamaica 7.4% Haiti 6.5% Dom. Rep. 5.8% All Others 49.9% Ecuador 3.4% U. K. 3.6% Manhattan Dom. Rep. 23.8% China 14.3% Mexico 5.2% All Others 61.7% Queens China 13.1% Guyana 7.6% Ecuador 6.7% Mexico 5.7% Dom. Rep. 5.2% All Others 69.0% Staten Island Mexico 8.0% Italy 7.3% China 6.4% India 5.6% Russia 3.7%

Top 20 Neighborhoods of Residence of the Foreign-born New York City, 2007-2011 Total Foreign-born Population Number Percent Total, New York City 8,128,980 2,989,817 36.8 Washington Heights 162,898 80,174 49.2 Bensonhurst 144,159 77,682 53.9 Elmhurst 108,556 77,110 71.0 Corona 103,210 66,259 64.2 Jackson Heights 105,859 65,585 62.0 Sunset Park 123,790 64,029 51.7 Flushing 94,418 63,920 67.7 Flatbush 105,940 51,122 48.3 Crown Heights 141,067 49,058 34.8 Bushwick 131,250 48,528 37.0 South Ozone Park 78,381 45,681 58.3 Concourse-Concourse Village 102,401 41,748 40.8 Forest Hills 83,728 41,056 49.0 Canarsie 84,244 39,195 46.5 East New York 119,236 36,585 30.7 Richmond Hill 63,201 36,203 57.3 Astoria 74,859 33,217 44.4 Prospect Lefferts Gardens-Wingate 69,331 32,925 47.5 Hunters Point-Sunnyside-West Maspeth 60,009 31,856 53.1 Borough Park 106,816 31,739 29.7 All Other 6,065,627 1,976,145 32.6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-011 American Community Survey-Summary File

Foreign-born by Neighborhood* New York City, 2007-2011 Bronx 471,136 15.4% New York City Total = 3,066,599 (2011 Data) Manhattan Foreign-born 40,000 or more (13 neighborhoods) 461,325 15.0% Queens 1,089,187 35.5% 30,000 to 39,999 (10) 20,000 to 29,999 (23) 12,000 to 19,999 (41) 9,000 to 11,999 (38) Under 9,000 (57) Brooklyn 946,511 30.9% Staten Island 98,440 3.2% *"Neighborhoods," as defined in this study, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, neighborhood boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent actual neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 and 2007-2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

Changes in the Popula(on Dynamic on the Horizon?

Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City 2000-2010 Population Change Natural Increase -150-100 -50 0 50 100 Thousands 2010-2012 Net Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration -150-100 -50 0 50 100 Thousands Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; United States Department of Homeland Security as revised by

Migration Patterns for Persons Filing Tax Returns New York City, 1985-2010 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 In Migration Out Migration 20,000 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Migration data are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS. Does not include the income tax returns filed by those living abroad. Source: Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service

Immigra(on stats don't tell whole story By GREG DAVID Jan 12, 2014 When New York's Department of City Planning last month issued a third edi(on of its look at immigra(on, the headlines trumpeted "a wave of newcomers" and highlighted the fact that foreign- born New Yorkers now top 3 million, a record The more important revela(on was buried in the last chapter: Although the total number of immigrants con(nues to rise, the number arriving each year is falling significantly. Since 2000, says City Planning, foreign- born arrivals have fallen by 25% a year, to about 67,000. The city's popula(on is con(nuing to grow because more people are moving to New York from elsewhere in the country than they have in decades, and they have more than made up for the shorzall in immigrants.

Immigra(on stats don't tell whole story By GREG DAVID Jan 12, 2014 Just as interes(ng, immigrants and people who move here from other places in the United States are be\er educated and make more money. Anecdotally, it is obvious that much of the domes(c influx consists of college graduates coming to make their marks in the Big Apple not only on Wall Street, but also in tech and in other crea(ve industries. The same trend holds true for those from abroad, reflec(ng the growing percentage of arrivals from Asia, and especially India, who have already graduated from college...

Changing Origins of In-migrants to New York City, 1995-2000 and 2007-2011 1995-2000 2007-2011 Abroad 49.8% 50 States & Puerto Rico 50.2% Abroad 33.2% 50 States & Puerto Rico 66.8% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 2007-2011 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

Non-Family Households with a Head of Household Under 65 Years by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City 2010 Change 2000 to 2010 New York City Total = 30.5% Percent Change 55.0% or more Gain of 2,000 or more 45.0% to 54.9% 1,000 to 1,999 35.0% to 44.9% 25.0% to 34.9% Less than 25.0% * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. 250 to 999-249 to 249-999 to -250 Loss of 1,000 or more Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 and 2010 Censuses-Summary File 1

Changes and Persistent Challenges

Population Growth by Race/Hispanic Origin New York City, 2000-2012 Percent Change = -3.9-2.4 39.0 11.4 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Black nonhispanic White nonhispanic Asian nonhispanic Hispanic 2000 2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Censuses-Summary File 1; 2012 American Community Survey

Hispanic and Asian Subgroups New York City, 2012 Hispanic Asian* Vietnamese 1% Japanese 2% Honduran 2% Salvadoran 2% Colombian 4% Ecuadorian 8% Other 12% Total = 2,377,486 Puerto Rican 31% Pakistani 4% Bangladeshi 5% Filipino 7% Korean 9% Other 5% Total = 1,064,658 Chinese** 48% Mexican 14% Dominican Republic 27% Asian Indian 19% *Includes a small number of Asians who are of Hispanic origin. ** Includes Taiwanese Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey- 3 Year Estimates

Persons by English Language Ability New York City, 2012 Speaks language other than English at home 49% 3,833,928 Not English Proficient 1,789,858 23% English Proficient 2,044,070 26% Speaks English at Home 3,962,428 51% Total Persons Ages 5 and Over = 7,796,356 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

Limited English Proficient Population by Language Spoken at Home New York City, 2012 Number Percent Total LEP 1,789,858 100.0 Top LEP Languages Spanish 882,606 49.3 Chinese* 305,734 17.1 Russian 115,371 6.4 French Creole 54,237 3.0 Bengali 44,568 2.5 Korean 43,992 2.5 Italian 26,953 1.5 Polish 24,270 1.4 Arabic 23,799 1.3 * Includes Chinese, Cantonese, Mandarin, and Formosan Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

Percent of Population* Not Proficient in English by Neighborhood Tabulation Area** New York City, 2008-2012 Bronx New York City Total = 23.3% Percent Not Proficient in English 40.0% or more 30.0% to 39.9% (22 neighborhoods) (35) Manhattan Queens 20.0% to 29.9% (39) 10.0% to 19.9% (50) Less than 10.0% (49) Brooklyn Staten Island * Population 5 years and over ** Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder

Percent College Graduates by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Bronx New York City Total = 34.0% Percent Bachelor s Degree or Higher 60.0% or more 40.0% to 59.9% (20 neighborhoods) (26) Manhattan Queens 30.0% to 39.9% (34) 20.0% to 29.9% (58) Less than 20.0% (57) Brooklyn Staten Island * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder

Poverty Rate by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Bronx New York City Total = 19.9% Percent Foreign-born 40.0% or more 25.0% to 39.9% (10 neighborhoods) (44) Manhattan Queens 15.0% to 24.9% (48) 10.0% to 14.9% (48) Less than 10.0% (45) Brooklyn Staten Island * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder

Population Projections by Borough New York City, 2010 and 2040 Bronx 1,385,108 1,579,245 14.0 New York City 2010: 8,242,624 2040: 9,025,145 % Change: 9.5 Manhattan 1,585,873 1,691,617 6.7 Queens 2,250,002 2,412,649 7.2 Staten Island 468,730 501,109 6.9 Brooklyn 2,552,911 2,840,525 11.3 Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections

Projections for the Population 65 and Over by Borough New York City, 2010 and 2040 Bronx 145,882 228,476 56.6 New York City 2010: 1,002,208 2040: 1,409,708 % Change: 40.7 Manhattan 214,153 277,444 29.6 Queens 288,219 377,060 30.8 Staten Island 59,344 97,883 64.9 Brooklyn 294,610 428,845 45.6 Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections

Data Links DCP Popula(on Division Web site: www.nyc.gov/popula(on New York City Census Summary File: hfp://gis.nyc.gov/dcp/pa/address.jsp Census Bureau Web site: www.census.gov