NEVADA: TRUMP OVERTAKES CLINTON

Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick NEVADA: TRUMP OVERTAKES CLINTON Heck holds onto narrow lead in Senate race West Long Branch, NJ The race for Nevada s electoral votes has flipped from two months ago, with Donald Trump now holding a slim 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton, whereas Clinton held a 4 point lead in s Monmouth University Poll. In the U.S. Senate contest, ublican Joe Heck clings to a narrow 3 point lead over ocrat Catherine Cortez Masto, virtually unchanged from his earlier 2 point lead. Among Silver State voters likely to participate in November s presidential election, 4 currently support Trump and 4 back Clinton. Another intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and say they will choose Nevada s unique none of these candidates ballot option. Monmouth s poll found Clinton leading Trump by 4 to 4, with Johnson at and none of the above at. Green Party candidate Jill Stein will not appear on the ballot in Nevada. Among self-identified ublicans, 8 support Trump, which is identical to his 8 support in. Among ocrats, 9 support Clinton, which is similar to her 9 support in. ependents have shifted, however, now giving Trump a clear 4 to 2 advantage over Clinton, with 17% supporting Johnson. Two months ago, the independent vote was divided at 3 for Trump, 37% for Clinton, and 1 for Johnson. The race in Nevada is still tight, but the momentum has swung toward Trump, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Clinton still has a sizable lead among non-white voters 6 to 2 for Trump, which is down slightly from her 6 to 2 lead among this group in. The ublican nominee retains his lead among white voters, now standing at 5 to 3, which is up slightly from 4 to 37% two months ago. 1

Monmouth University Polling Institute 9/14/16 Clinton s lead among women voters is also a bit narrower than in Monmouth s prior poll, currently at 5 to 4 compared with 5 to 3 in. Trump has a 4 to 3 edge among men, which is slightly better than his 4 to 37% lead among male voters two months ago. These demographic shifts are within the margin of error for these demographic groups, but they suggest that Trump has had a little more success solidifying his base in Nevada than Clinton has, said Murray. Interestingly, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the horse race even while his favorable ratings have declined. Only 3 of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Trump while 5 hold an unfavorable view of him, which is down from 3 favorable and 5 unfavorable in. Opinion of Clinton, on the other hand, has held steady. She currently gets a 3 favorable and 5 unfavorable rating, which is identical to her 3 favorable and 5 unfavorable rating from two months ago. Turning to the U.S. Senate race,. Joe Heck currently has the backing of 4 of likely voters while former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto has 4 support. Tom Jones of the ependent American Party has and none of these candidates has, with another undecided. Heck held a similar 4 to 4 lead in, with Jones then at and none of the above at. More than 8-in-10 ublicans (8) back Heck, similar to his 8 partisan support in. Cortez Masto gets the backing of 8 of ocrats, which is similar to her 8 support two months ago. Heck maintains the advantage among independents, now leading Cortez Masto by 4 to 3, with 1 for Jones. Two months ago, independents preferred Heck by 4 to 3, with 1 backing Jones. Heck holds a 5 to 3 edge among white voters, compared with to 3 in. Cortez Masto has a 5 to 3 lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters, compared with 4 to 2 in. Both U.S. Senate candidates have become better known since the summer, but opinion has moved in the negative direction. Currently, 3 of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Heck and 3 have an unfavorable view of him, with 3 registering no opinion. Voter opinion of Heck in was 3 favorable and 1 unfavorable with 4 having no opinion. Also, 3 of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Cortez Masto and 2 have an unfavorable view of her, with 37% registering no opinion. Voter opinion of Cortez Masto in was 2 favorable and 1 unfavorable with 5 having no opinion. Overall, 3 of voters say special interests have too much influence over Heck, which is up from 2 in. Another 2 say special interests have the right amount of influence and say they have too little influence, while 3 offer no opinion on this. Similarly, 3 of voters say special interests have too much influence over Cortez Masto, which is up from 27% in. Another 2 say they have the right amount and say they have too little influence, while 3 offer no opinion on this. 2

Monmouth University Polling Institute 9/14/16 The candidates are vying to fill the seat of outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, whose own job approval rating has dipped since. Just 4 of likely Nevada voters approve of the job he has been doing while 5 disapprove. This compares to a rating of 4 approve and 4 disapprove two months ago. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from 11 to 13, with 406 Nevada residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) DATA TABLES 1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the ublican, Hillary Clinton the ocrat, or Gary Johnson the Libertarian or would you choose the option for none of these candidates? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Donald Trump 4 4 Hillary Clinton 4 4 Gary Johnson None of these candidates (VOL) < < (VOL) Undecided 3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Joe Heck the ublican, Catherine Cortez Masto the ocrat, or Tom Jones of the ependent American Party or would you choose the option for none of these candidates? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Joe Heck or Catherine Cortez Masto?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Joe Heck 4 4 Catherine Cortez Masto 4 4 Tom Jones None of these candidates (VOL) (VOL) Undecided 7% Regardless of who you may support for president [QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED] 4. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 3 Unfavorable 5 5 No opinion 1 1 3

Monmouth University Polling Institute 9/14/16 5. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 3 Unfavorable 5 5 No opinion 1 1 Turning to the Senate race [QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED] 6. Is your general impression of Joe Heck favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 3 Unfavorable 3 1 No opinion 3 4 7. Is your general impression of Catherine Cortez Masto favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 2 Unfavorable 2 1 No opinion 37% 5 [QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED] 8. How much influence do special interest groups have over Joe Heck too much, too little, or the right amount? Too much 3 2 Too little Right amount 2 2 (VOL) Don t know 3 4 9. How much influence do special interest groups have over Catherine Cortez Masto too much, too little, or the right amount? Too much 3 27% Too little Right amount 2 2 (VOL) Don t know 3 4 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Harry Reid is doing as U.S. senator? Approve 4 4 Disapprove 5 4 (VOL) No opinion 7% 1 4

Monmouth University Polling Institute 9/14/16 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from 11 to 13, with a random sample of 406 likely Nevada voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 356 drawn from a list of registered voters (206 landline / 150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-orted 3 ublican 3 ependent 3 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female 2 18-34 2 35-49 2 50-64 27% 65+ 67% White 1 Black 1 Hispanic MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) LIKELY VOTER Total 406 4. SELF-REPORTED ublican 129 8.6 ependent 137 8.4 ocrat 137 8.4 IDEOLOGY Conservative 151 8.0 Moderate 155 7.9 Liberal 86 10.6 Male 198 7.0 Female 208 6.8 AGE 18-49 156 7.9 50+ 242 6.3 Hispanic 282 5.8 113 9.2 No 217 6.7 Yes 183 7.3 125 8.8 125 8.8 106 9.5 ### 5

Monmouth University Poll -- NEVADA -- 9/14/16 PREZ VOTE WITH LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson None of these [VOL] cand Undecided 4 4 8 4 2 17% 9 7 2 1 1 5 77% 1 4 3 4 5 4 4 1 PREZ VOTE WITH LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson None of these [VOL] cand Undecided 4 5 3 2 6 4 4 4 4 1 3 5 4 4 1 5 3 SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS Heck Cortez Masto Jones None of these Undecided 4 4 8 4 3 1 8 7 37% 1 1 5 8 7% 5 3 3 5 4 4 SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS Heck Cortez Masto Jones None of these Undecided 4 5 3 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 5 7% 4 6 3 Page 1

Monmouth University Poll -- NEVADA -- 9/14/16 Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 6 2 6 1 37% 2 2 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 2 5 8 2 67% 8 5 5 6 opinion of him? No opinion 1 17% 1 17% 1 7% 1 17% 1 No Yes Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 4 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 5 6 4 6 5 5 5 opinion of him? No opinion 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7% Con Mod Lib Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 2 7 4 7 2 4 3 Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 8 6 1 8 4 2 6 4 5 opinion of her? No opinion 1 7% 1 1 7% 1 1 1 1 No Yes Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 27% Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 6 37% 5 5 4 5 6 opinion of her? No opinion 1 1 7% 1 1 Con Mod Lib Q6. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 67% 3 6 2 7% 4 3 3 Joe Heck favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 2 6 1 3 67% 2 3 2 opinion of him? No opinion 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 4 No Yes Q6. Is your general impression of Favorable 4 4 2 3 3 2 3 5 Joe Heck favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 opinion of him? No opinion 2 27% 4 3 2 3 3 2 Page 2

Monmouth University Poll -- NEVADA -- 9/14/16 Con Mod Lib Q7. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 1 3 6 1 4 6 3 3 2 Catherine Cortez Masto favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 5 3 4 2 3 2 2 opinion of her? No opinion 37% 3 3 3 4 3 2 3 3 No Yes Q7. Is your general impression of Favorable 4 3 4 3 3 37% 4 3 Catherine Cortez Masto favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 opinion of her? No opinion 27% 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 Q8. How much influence do special interest groups have over Joe Heck - too much, too little, or the right amount? Too much Too little Right amount [VOL] Dont know_refused 3 2 3 1 4 3 4 2 2 17% 3 2 4 5 7% 3 1 2 3 3 2 Male Female 3 37% 3 2 2 3 Q8. How much influence do special interest groups have over Joe Heck - too much, too little, or the right amount? Too much Too little Right amount [VOL] Dont know_refused 18-49 50+ Hispanic 3 4 4 3 7% 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 27% 2 3 3 4 2 3 4 27% 2 3 3 2 Q9. How much influence do special interest groups have over Catherine Cortez Masto - too much, too little, or the right amount? Too much Too little Right amount [VOL] Dont know_refused 3 2 3 4 1 4 4 17% 2 1 4 3 4 3 2 1 2 4 37% 3 27% Male Female 4 3 7% 2 2 3 3 Page 3

Monmouth University Poll -- NEVADA -- 9/14/16 Q9. How much influence do special interest groups have over Catherine Cortez Masto - too much, too little, or the right amount? Too much Too little Right amount [VOL] Dont know_refused 18-49 50+ Hispanic 3 3 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 7% 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 27% 2 4 2 3 Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Harry Reid is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 4 5 7% 1 8 3 5 7% 7 1 1 5 7 8 4 1 7% 1 Male Female 3 6 4 1 Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Harry Reid is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 18-49 50+ Hispanic 4 4 37% 5 4 5 57% 3 1 1 37% 4 5 5 1 4 4 Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Harry Reid is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 4 4 7% 3 6 Page 4