ONS mid-2012 population estimates October 2013 Introduction The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their mid-2012 population estimates for England & Wales and respective authorities on 26 June 2013. These cover the year to 30 June 2012 and take the mid-2011 Census-based population estimates (released 25 September 2012) as their base. ONS also released detailed components of change which provide estimated numbers of births, deaths and migration for the period mid- 2011 to mid-2012. This Update compares the mid-2012 population estimates (2012 MYE) and components of change with three sets of population projections. These are: ONS 2011 sub-national population projections (SNPP) 1 released in September 2012 further information and analysis can be found in Intelligence Update 23-2012 GLA 2012 round SHLAA-based population projections released in December 2012 can be downloaded from the London Datastore GLA 2012 round trend-based population projections released in December 2012 can be downloaded from the London Datastore All three sets of population projections use the mid-2011 Census-based population estimates as their base. However, the GLA highlighted concerns with the methodology used by ONS for the 2011 SNPP which results in anomalies for a number of local authorities in London. These issues occurred due to fertility, mortality and migration rates being calculated using mid-year population projections that were released prior to the Census updated population backseries. This Update considers the following areas: Population; Births; Deaths; and Migration. 1 The 2011 SNPP have been provided by ONS rounded to the nearest hundred. GLA Intelligence 1
Key findings The 2012 MYE gave London s population to be 8.31 million for the year ending June 2012. This is 24,076 people lower than projected by the 2011 SNPP for the same period. Natural change (births minus deaths) accounted for the greatest proportion of population growth under all four estimates/projections. There were 693,892 births in England according to the 2012 MYE compared to the 2011 SNPP projection of 728,994. For London, the 2012 MYE estimated 134,037 births. The GLA s population projections (SHLAA and trend-based) projected 134,152 births while the 2011 SNPP projected a much higher figure of 145,223. The number of births projected by the 2011 SNPP was over 1,100 higher than the 2012 MYE in Newham, Brent and Hackney. The number of deaths in London rose slightly according to the 2012 MYE reflecting an increasing number of older people in the population. The 2012 MYE include a migration and other changes 2 category accounting for 17,495 people in London. Net internal migration for London varies between the 2012 MYE and the 2011 SNPP by nearly 15,000 people. The 2011 SNPP projected net internal migration for London to be -14,103 compared to the 2012 MYE figure of -8,359. The 2011 SNPP net international migration figure for London at 11,746 is considerably higher than the 2012 MYE of 6,829. Although the migration and other changes category in the 2012 MYE may account for some of this difference. 2 Migration and other changes include internal migration within England and Wales; migration to and from other parts of the UK; and international migration. It also includes changes to the size of armed forces and prison populations and other, small, adjustments. GLA Intelligence 2
Population Figure 1 shows that the 2012 MYE gave the population of London to be 8.31 million for the year ending June 2012. This is considerably lower than the 8.33 million people projected by the 2011 SNPP and also lower than the GLA s trend-based projections at 8.32 million. The GLA s SHLAA-based projections are the closest to the mid-2012 estimates at 8.30 million, some six thousand people lower. Figure 1: Population, London, mid-2012 Population estimate (mid-2012) Millions 8.34 8.32 8.30 8.28 8.26 8.24 8.3084 8.3324 8.3023 8.3181 8.22 8.20 2012 MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA GLA Trend Table 1 gives the mid-2011 population and the population for mid-2012 according to the 2012 MYE, 2011 SNPP and both sets of GLA population projections by local authority. The table also shows the population change between mid-2011 and mid-2012 based on the different data sources. GLA Intelligence 3
Table 1: Population, London boroughs, mid-2011 and mid-2012 Population Growth compared to mid-2011 Mid-2011 MYE 2012 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA GLA Trend MYE 2012 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA GLA Trend City of London 7,412 7,604 8,039 7,554 7,566 192 627 142 154 Barking and Dagenham 187,029 190,560 191,570 191,431 190,884 3,531 4,541 4,402 3,855 Barnet 357,538 363,956 364,086 366,357 362,984 6,418 6,548 8,819 5,446 Bexley 232,774 234,271 235,246 233,426 234,772 1,497 2,472 652 1,998 Brent 312,245 314,660 314,396 315,880 316,531 2,415 2,151 3,635 4,286 Bromley 310,554 314,036 314,393 312,130 313,230 3,482 3,839 1,576 2,676 Camden 220,087 224,962 225,891 221,828 223,809 4,875 5,804 1,741 3,722 Croydon 364,815 368,886 367,788 368,924 369,411 4,071 2,973 4,109 4,596 Ealing 339,314 340,671 343,355 342,017 342,971 1,357 4,041 2,703 3,657 Enfield 313,935 317,287 319,336 315,191 318,536 3,352 5,401 1,256 4,601 Greenwich 255,483 260,068 256,991 262,676 257,800 4,585 1,508 7,193 2,317 Hackney 247,182 252,119 249,520 250,609 250,329 4,937 2,338 3,427 3,147 Hammersmith and Fulham 182,445 179,850 182,588 183,844 183,427-2,595 143 1,399 982 Haringey 255,540 258,912 259,044 258,862 258,806 3,372 3,504 3,322 3,266 Harrow 240,499 242,377 244,091 241,966 243,172 1,878 3,592 1,467 2,673 Havering 237,927 239,733 240,726 240,734 240,285 1,806 2,799 2,807 2,358 Hillingdon 275,499 281,756 280,422 277,727 279,980 6,257 4,923 2,228 4,481 Hounslow 254,927 259,052 259,708 256,198 259,441 4,125 4,781 1,271 4,514 Islington 206,285 211,047 210,879 209,346 210,927 4,762 4,594 3,061 4,642 Kensington and Chelsea 158,251 155,930 158,577 159,122 157,567-2,321 326 871-684 Kingston upon Thames 160,436 163,906 165,016 161,292 162,942 3,470 4,580 856 2,506 Lambeth 304,481 310,200 307,753 308,142 308,503 5,719 3,272 3,661 4,022 Lewisham 276,938 281,556 281,626 280,639 280,804 4,618 4,688 3,701 3,866 Merton 200,543 202,225 205,512 201,640 203,247 1,682 4,969 1,097 2,704 Newham 310,460 314,084 314,425 319,514 317,533 3,624 3,965 9,054 7,073 Redbridge 281,395 284,617 287,407 283,720 286,311 3,222 6,012 2,325 4,916 Richmond upon Thames 187,527 189,145 190,473 188,239 189,280 1,618 2,946 712 1,753 Southwark 288,717 293,530 296,504 293,670 293,550 4,813 7,787 4,953 4,833 Sutton 191,123 193,630 194,001 191,836 193,557 2,507 2,878 713 2,434 Tower Hamlets 256,012 263,003 263,294 263,213 262,723 6,991 7,282 7,201 6,711 Waltham Forest 259,742 262,566 263,185 262,271 263,801 2,824 3,443 2,529 4,059 Wandsworth 307,710 308,312 311,415 310,485 310,979 602 3,705 2,775 3,269 Westminster 219,582 223,858 225,188 221,836 222,395 4,276 5,606 2,254 2,813 Greater London 8,204,407 8,308,369 8,332,445 8,302,319 8,318,051 103,962 128,038 97,912 113,644 GLA Intelligence 4
Population change Comparing population projections and estimates for mid-2011 and mid-2012 for the four different data sources allows the population change between the years to be calculated. All three sets of population projections use the same base data for their 2011 population as the 2012 MYE, a population of 8.20 million people in London in June 2011. Figure 2 shows the estimates for 2012 from each of the three population projections and the MYE 2012 estimate for London. The 2011 SNPP projected the greatest level of growth at 128,000 people over the year with the GLA SHLAA-based projections forecasting the lowest at 98,000 people. The 2012 MYE estimate that London s population grew by nearly 104,000 people over the year to mid-2012. For all four sets of data, natural change (births minus deaths) accounted for the greatest proportion of population growth. This ranged from nearly 86,500 for the 2012 MYE to 97,600 for the 2011 SNPP. Net migration also varied with the GLA SHLAA-based projections giving this to be less than 10,000 compared to 17,495 under the 2012 MYE and 29,300 under the 2011 SNPP. Net migration as a percentage of overall growth varies, ranging from 10.1 per cent of the GLA SHLAA-based projections to 23.1 per cent for the 2011 SNPP. Figure 2: Components of population growth, London, mid-2011 to mid-2012 140,000 Components of population growth (2011-2012) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 17,495 86,467 29,300 97,600 9,896 25,628 88,016 88,016 0 2012 MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA GLA Trend Natural change Net migration GLA Intelligence 5
Births The 2012 MYE estimates that there were 693,892 births in England in year to end June 2012. This is considerably lower than the 728,994 births projected by the 2011 SNPP for the same period, a difference of more than 35,100 births. Figure 3 shows the number of births each year between mid-2001 and mid-2012 for London. It also shows the SNPP 2011 and GLA SHLAA and trend-based birth projections for mid-2012 3. In London alone the difference in the number of births between the 2012 MYE and the 2011 SNPP is over 11,100 with the latter projecting 145,223 births compared to the mid-2012 estimate of only 134,037 births. The mid-2012 population estimates and both sets of GLA population projections projected similar numbers of births in London for 2012 of some 134,000. As outlined in Update 23-2012 the higher numbers of births projected by the 2011 SNPP are undermined by the methodology used by ONS in the calculation of age-specific fertility rates. Figure 3: Number of births, London, mid-2001 to mid-2012 150,000 145,000 140,000 Number of births 135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 Time period MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Table 2 gives the number of births by local authority for London taken from the 2011 SNPP, the mid-2012 population estimates and both the GLA SHLAA and trend-based population projections. It also gives the difference between these birth numbers and those from the 2012 MYE. 3 The number of births projected by both the GLA SHLAA and trend-based birth projections are the same for mid-2012. GLA Intelligence 6
Table 2: Number of births, London boroughs, mid-2012 Number of births 2012 MYE 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Difference in births (mid-2012 estimates minus other source) 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend City of London 56 52 63 4-7 Barking and Dagenham 3,797 3,939 3,715-142 82 Barnet 5,650 5,976 5,606-326 44 Bexley 3,160 3,187 3,215-27 -55 Brent 5,312 6,573 5,384-1,261-72 Bromley 4,139 4,058 4,136 81 3 Camden 3,085 3,045 3,093 40-8 Croydon 5,790 6,207 5,907-417 -117 Ealing 5,727 6,423 5,870-696 -143 Enfield 5,017 5,677 4,925-660 92 Greenwich 4,598 5,227 4,579-629 19 Hackney 4,445 5,635 4,342-1,190 103 Hammersmith and Fulham 2,716 3,399 2,725-683 -9 Haringey 4,190 4,962 4,220-772 -30 Harrow 3,530 3,623 3,516-93 14 Havering 2,933 2,938 2,958-5 -25 Hillingdon 4,459 4,382 4,426 77 33 Hounslow 4,671 4,726 4,610-55 61 Islington 2,945 3,272 3,014-327 -69 Kensington and Chelsea 2,064 2,575 2,169-511 -105 Kingston upon Thames 2,306 2,243 2,322 63-16 Lambeth 4,833 5,718 4,758-885 75 Lewisham 4,940 5,288 4,919-348 21 Merton 3,507 3,445 3,571 62-64 Newham 6,467 7,786 6,436-1,319 31 Redbridge 4,769 4,643 4,701 126 68 Richmond upon Thames 2,980 2,982 2,891-2 89 Southwark 5,028 5,504 5,254-476 -226 Sutton 2,835 2,687 2,750 148 85 Tower Hamlets 4,710 4,958 4,540-248 170 Waltham Forest 4,892 5,695 4,908-803 -16 Wandsworth 5,478 5,660 5,547-182 -69 Westminster 3,008 2,737 3,082 271-74 Greater London 134,037 145,223 134,152-11,186-115 GLA Intelligence 7
The biggest differences can be seen between the 2011 SNPP birth projections and the mid-2012 birth estimates. For London as a whole this difference is 11,186 births. Three boroughs have more than a thousand extra births under the 2011 SNPP projections when compared to the mid-2012 estimates. These are: Newham (1,319 more births); Brent (1,261) and Hackney (1,190). At the London level, the GLA projections are exceptionally close to the mid-2012 estimates though some larger differences exist at local authority level. The GLA projections are 115 births higher than the mid- 2012 estimates with the largest difference in Southwark (226 more births than the mid-2012 estimates). Figure 5 shows the numbers of births by borough for the different sources. From this figure it is clear that in most instances the 2011 SNPP projected much higher numbers of births than the 2012 MYE show there to have been. As outlined above Newham was projected by the 2011 SNPP to have 1,319 more births than was the case (Figure 4). This is equal to the 2011 SNPP projecting 20.3 per cent more births. Both sets of GLA projections projected only slightly lower numbers of births than was the case at 6,436 births when compared to the mid-2012 estimate of 6,467 births; a difference of 31 births. Figure 4: Number of births, Newham, mid-2001 to mid-2012 8,000 7,500 7,000 Number of births 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Time period MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend GLA Intelligence 8
Figure 5: Number of births, London boroughs, mid-2012 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 No. of births (2012) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 MYE 2012 SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Sources: ONS 2011-based interim SNPP, 2012; ONS mid-2012 population estimates, 2013; GLA 2012 round of SHLAA and trend-based GLA Intelligence 9
In some boroughs, such as Westminster, the SNPP underestimated births compared to the 2012 MYE. Again, this is linked to the SNPP methodology outlined in Update 23-2012. Figure 6 illustrates that the 2011 SNPP projected 271 fewer births (2,737 births in total) than the 2012 MYE of 3,008 births. Both sets of GLA projections projected higher numbers of births (74 more births) than the 2012 MYE at 3,082 births. Figure 6: Number of births, Westminster, mid-2001 to mid-2012 3,200 3,000 Number of births 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Time period MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend GLA Intelligence 10
Deaths Figure 7 shows a downward trend in the number of deaths in London between mid-2002 and mid-2012 from 57,360 deaths in mid-2002 to just over 46,900 in mid-2011. The 2012 MYE show that the number of deaths rose slightly to 47,570; an increase of 642. As can be seen in Table 3, the GLA population projections projected the number of deaths to continue falling to reach just over 46,130 in mid-2012, some 1,430 deaths lower than was the case. The 2011 SNPP was more accurate at the London level projecting the number of deaths to be just 50 higher than the 2012 MYE. However this does mask inaccuracies at lower levels, for instance, the 2011 SNPP projected 193 more deaths in Camden than the 2012 MYE and 168 fewer in Croydon. Figure 7: Number of deaths, London, mid-2002 to mid-2012 70,000 60,000 Number of births 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Time period Historical deaths SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend GLA Intelligence 11
Table 3: Number of deaths, London boroughs, mid-2012 Number of deaths 2012 MYE 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Difference in deaths (mid-2012 estimates minus other source) 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend City of London 36 54 39-18 -3 Barking and Dagenham 1,285 1,237 1,183 48 102 Barnet 2,315 2,262 2,334 53-19 Bexley 1,893 1,871 1,815 22 78 Brent 1,556 1,495 1,484 61 72 Bromley 2,593 2,512 2,471 81 122 Camden 1,094 1,287 1,061-193 33 Croydon 2,453 2,285 2,358 168 95 Ealing 1,900 1,829 1,867 71 33 Enfield 1,928 1,921 1,832 7 96 Greenwich 1,583 1,623 1,535-40 48 Hackney 1,055 1,009 1,015 46 40 Hammersmith and Fulham 896 825 904 71-8 Haringey 1,161 1,205 1,104-44 57 Harrow 1,439 1,469 1,397-30 42 Havering 2,176 2,210 2,097-34 79 Hillingdon 1,832 1,789 1,748 43 84 Hounslow 1,422 1,502 1,418-80 4 Islington 1,034 1,172 999-138 35 Kensington and Chelsea 829 639 806 190 23 Kingston upon Thames 1,014 1,058 1,000-44 14 Lambeth 1,369 1,464 1,330-95 39 Lewisham 1,489 1,657 1,556-168 -67 Merton 1,202 1,109 1,136 93 66 Newham 1,295 1,373 1,174-78 121 Redbridge 1,740 1,770 1,736-30 4 Richmond upon Thames 1,174 1,176 1,143-2 31 Southwark 1,298 1,252 1,329 46-31 Sutton 1,358 1,421 1,344-63 14 Tower Hamlets 1,063 1,046 1,001 17 62 Waltham Forest 1,458 1,584 1,316-126 142 Wandsworth 1,515 1,558 1,502-43 13 Westminster 1,115 959 1,102 156 13 Greater London 47,570 47,624 46,136-54 1,434 GLA Intelligence 12
Migration All four data sets include a component for net migration which includes both internal and international migration. The three projections also include other forms of migration in the net total while the 2012 MYE splits these out into a separate group called Other changes 4. For London, the other migration category accounts for 17,495 people in the 2012 MYE. As a result comparisons between the net migration data from the projections must be made with the 2012 MYE migration plus other changes. Figures taken from the 2012 MYE can be seen in Table 4. For the GLA SHLAA-based projections no further analysis on the split of internal and international migration has been undertaken as it is not possible to obtain these from the model. Internal migration All four datasets show negative values for net internal migration (more people leaving London than inmigrating). Net internal migration varies by nearly 15,000 from some -51,660 based on the 2012 MYE to -66,600 based on the 2011 SNPP projections. The GLA s trend-based projections are closer to the 2012 MYE at -56,190. Figure 8 compares net internal migration for all London boroughs with the majority showing net internal migration to be negative. From this it can be seen that the 2011 SNPP had the lowest levels of net internal migration for mid-2012 for a number of boroughs, particularly Brent, Hackney, Lambeth and Newham. In Newham, the 2011 SNPP gave net internal migration as -14,103 people indicating that a considerably greater number of people moved from Newham to elsewhere in the country (including other London boroughs) than moved in. However net migration for both the 2012 MYE and the GLA trend-based projections is -8,300 and -9,400 people respectively. This is some 5,000 lower than projected by the 2011 SNPP. For five boroughs (Bexley, Camden, Kingston upon Thames, Redbridge and Westminster) the 2011 SNPP showed net internal migration to be positive whereas the other two sources showed the opposite. International migration There is a difference of over 27,230 between the 2012 MYE for London for net international migration and the 2011 SNPP; the latter having the higher figure of 96,206. As with internal migration, the GLA s trendbased figure falls between the two at just over 81,800. Figure 9 shows that there are large differences between sources with respect to net international migration for certain boroughs but no clear trend overall. The 2012 MYE gives net international migration for Newham to be just over 6,800 people; some 5,000 lower than either the 2011 SNPP or GLA trend-based projections which give numbers of 11,746 and 11,217 respectively. A similar pattern is evident for both Brent and Southwark where the 2012 MYE figures for net international migration are considerably lower than the other two sources. Kensington & Chelsea is the only borough for which net international migration shows as negative for all three sources. Hammersmith & Fulham and Wandsworth both also have negative net international migration according to the 2012 MYE whereas under the other two sources this shows as positive. 4 Other changes include internal migration within England and Wales, migration to and from other parts of the UK; and international migration. It also includes changes to the size of armed forces and prison populations and other, small, adjustments. GLA Intelligence 13
Table 4: International migration and other, London, mid-2012 (MYE 2012) International migration Inflows Outflows Net Other changes Migration & other changes City of London 698 488 210 0 172 Barking and Dagenham 2,477 906 1,571 0 1,019 Barnet 6,766 2,861 3,905 12 3,083 Bexley 961 462 499-5 230 Brent 8,046 5,172 2,874-24 -1.341 Bromley 1,445 965 480-11 1,936 Camden 11,948 6,763 5,185-3 2,884 Croydon 3,547 2,068 1,479 9 734 Ealing 7,243 5,494 1,749-18 -2,470 Enfield 3,253 1,367 1,886-3 263 Greenwich 4,675 2,108 2,567 435 1,570 Hackney 4,517 3,097 1,420-7 1,547 Hammersmith and Fulham 5,110 7,615-2,505-48 -4,415 Haringey 6,797 2,825 3,972-8 343 Harrow 3,134 1,440 1,694-5 -213 Havering 731 465 266-2 1,049 Hillingdon 5,072 1,573 3,499 24 3,630 Hounslow 4,896 2,065 2,831-12 876 Islington 8,440 4,103 4,337 128 2,851 Kensington and Chelsea 4,559 5,870-1,311 11-3,556 Kingston upon Thames 3,400 1,262 2,138 19 2,178 Lambeth 7,405 4,710 2,695 276 2,255 Lewisham 4,704 2,086 2,618-6 1,167 Merton 3,170 3,120 50 1-623 Newham 12,371 5,542 6,829-18 -1,548 Redbridge 4,309 1,932 2,377-2 193 Richmond upon Thames 1,832 2,058-226 -214-188 Southwark 7,758 4,479 3,279-6 1,083 Sutton 980 688 292-1 1,030 Tower Hamlets 10,616 5,590 5,026-14 3,344 Waltham Forest 6,098 2,825 3,273-4 -610 Wandsworth 5,973 7,567-1,594-300 -3,361 Westminster 13,419 7,820 5,599-14 2,383 Greater London 176,350 107,386 68,964 190 17,495 GLA Intelligence 14
Figure 8: Net internal migration, London boroughs, mid-2012 4,000 City of London Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster 2,000 0 Net internal migration (mid-2012) -2,000-4,000-6,000-8,000-10,000-12,000-14,000-16,000 Mid-2012 SNPP 2011 GLA Trend Sources: ONS 2011-based interim SNPP, 2012; ONS mid-2012 population estimates, 2013; GLA 2012 round of trend-based GLA Intelligence 15
Figure 9: Net international migration, London boroughs, mid-2012 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000 City of London Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Net internal migration (mid-2012) Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster Mid-2012 SNPP 2011 GLA Trend Sources: ONS 2011-based interim SNPP, 2012; ONS mid-2012 population estimates, 2013; GLA 2012 round of trend-based GLA Intelligence 16
For more information please contact GLA Intelligence Monica Li, Greater London Authority, City Hall, The Queen s Walk, More London, London SE1 2AA Tel: 020 7983 4889 e-mail: monica.li@london.gov.uk Copyright Greater London Authority, 2013