Development and the Next Generation The World Development Report 2007 March 2007 www.worldbank.org/wdr2007
Outline Motivation Structure and framework How can we help young people make better decisions? Where do we go from here? 2
Outline Motivation Growth in human capital Demographic dividend Structure and framework What can we do? Where do we go from here? 3
Great progress in human capital development Under-5 mortality rate per 1000 live births 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean 4 Source: World Bank
But new challenges for youth HIV prevalence rate (%) in young (15-24) pregnant women 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: 5 UNAIDS
The demographic window of opportunity Window has yet to open Uganda Afghanistan Similar countries: Ethiopia, Niger, Timor Leste Year window opens Window closes >10 years Bolivia India Window will close < 10 years Year of Peak Youth Population Similar countries: Egypt, Colombia, Nicargua, Morocco Chile China Similar countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Iran Window closed Italy Japan Year window closes Similar countries: Ireland, Germany, France, Czech Rep. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 6
Outline Motivation Structure and framework Five transitions Three questions What can we do? Where do we go from here? 7
Five youth transitions Percent of Cohort 100 Schooling Taking health risks Working Forming families Participating in civic life 0 12 24 Age 8
Three questions for each transition Youth lenses: policies in these spheres determine youth outcomes Policies affecting human capital formation during youth transitions: Economy wide policies and insts: macro stability, invest. climate, governance, labor market regulations Education Training Health services Welfare & family services Infrastructure Opportunities Capabilities Second chances Improved policies and outcomes for youth These lenses enable the design of more effective policies 9
Outline Motivation Structure and framework How can we help young people make better decisions? Provide opportunities Enhance capabilities Guarantee second chances Where do we go from here? 10
Opportunities: health services alternatives to early marriage and childbearing (e.g. schooling) proper nutrition access to reproductive health technology and services access to antenatal and obstetric care access to child health services involving young men in SRH 11
Opportunities: a good education Percent of young women, 15-24, who can read a simple sentence or know condoms can prevent HIV/AIDS after six years of primary school 100 90 80 70 60 Inadequate preparation for adolescence improve quality of basic education 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ghana Zambia Ghana Zambia Literacy Condom Knowledge Relevance of education for jobs curriculum reform, flexibility in school systems 12
Opportunities: entry to work Promote growth that leads to greater youth employment Reform institutions that inhibit job creation for and mobility of unskilled youth Excessively high minimum wages or employment protection Opening up opportunities to migrate 13
Opportunities: migration Most migrants are young (Figures: Migrants to South Africa and Migrants to the United States) Facilitate temporary movement Reduce remittance costs Information campaigns to reduce risks Improve invest climate at home 14
Capabilities: information Percent of young people who are aware of multiple ways to prevent HIV/AIDS Tanzania Kenya Ghana Namibia Uganda Cameroon Zambia Mozambique Burkina Faso Nigeria Rwanda Mali 0 20 40 60 80 100 Male Female 15 Source: DHS Source: DHS
Capabilities: information matters Perceived and actual benefits from schooling in the Dominican Republic 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 DR pesos per week Measured = actual earnings based on worker surveys Perceived = earnings perceived by 8 th grade boys if they finish primary or secondary school Measured returns significantly exceed perceived returns Program provided information campaigns in AND outside schools 0 complete primary complete secondary Source: Jensen (2006) perceived measured 16
Capabilities: but information may not be enough Kenya Dominican Republic 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 No Education Incomplete Primary Complete Primary 0 No Education Incomplete Primary Complete Primary Percent who know that condoms prevent HIV transmission Percent who used condoms at last sex 17 Source: DHS Source: DHS
Capabilities: can you decide for yourself? 18 Source: Source: WDR WDR
Do you have the proper incentives? Conditional transfers Mexico s Oportunidades 0.2 more years of schooling among 13-15-yearold children reduced child morbidity and mortality Bangladesh s Female Secondary Stipend Program 19
Do you have the proper incentives? Impact of a one percent price increase China U.S. High school students 0 smoking smoking alcohol binge marijuana use drinking use -0.5 Percent change -1-1.5-2 20 Source: Source: WDR WDR
Incentives matter Projected impact of tobacco price increase (Million deaths averted by 2050 by a 33% price increase) East Asia / Pacific 27.5 East Europe / Central Asia 8.1 Latin America / Caribbean 6.7 Middle East / North Africa 2.2 South Asia 8.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.7 (Total LMIC) (56.8) High-income countries 2.1 World 58.9 21 Source: DCPP2
So do second chances School enrollment in Malawi, 2000 19 Half of all enrolled 19-year-olds in Malawi are in primary school Age 18 17 16 15 0 20 40 60 80 enrolled in primary school enrolled in secondary school Programs will be more successful if: they are designed to meet the needs of diverse young people they are well-targeted they help youth reenter the mainstream (e.g., graduate equivalency programs) 22
Second chances in employment Provide work experience: e.g., Senegal s AGETIP builds infrastructure Contractors use labor-intensive technology Employ trained but inexperienced youth 35,000 person-yrs of employment in 7 years Provide relevant skills: Jovenes programs combine tech and life skills training Encourage competition among providers 23
Second chances for justice Countries incarcerate youth at different rates Minimize status crimes Avoid harsh penalties Don t incarcerate youths with adults Provide access to justice Promote restorative justice over retribution (South Africa s Truth and Reconciliation Program) Australia Ghana Lesotho Zambia Zimbabwe Cote d'ivoire Angola Namibia Morocco Algeria South Africa Mozambique United States -6-4 -2 0 2 4 6 Deviation from international average Source: WDR 2007 24
Outline Motivation Structure and framework What can we do? Where do we go from here? Coordination Voice Evaluation 25
Where do we go from here? Coordination. Youth outcomes are improved by multi-sectoral efforts but most policy is sectorally focused. Voice. The constituency of youth is weak, but potentially powerful. Evaluation. Many youth-specific initiatives are still new; impact must be evaluated carefully; donors can play a key role. 26
Coordination Providing school uniforms not only increased enrollment in Kenya it also lowered pregnancy rates. Percent 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Male dropout rate Control group Students who received unifo rms Female dropout rate Females who have started childbearing Source: 27 Duflo et al. 2006
Voice Young people in Sierra Leone less likely to attend or speak at community meetings but they are excited about 2007 elections. 10 0 80 60 40 20 0 18-2 4 Male 25+ Male 18-2 4 Female 25+ Female Attended a community meeting Spoke at a community meeting 28 Source: Source: WDR WDR
Evaluation Of more than 300 studies of youth HIV/AIDS interventions, fewer than two percent show positive, objectively measured outcomes. with biomarkers (6%) with positive outcomes (2%) without biomarkers (92%) 29 Source: Source:WDR WDR
The demographic window of opportunity 30
Development and the Next Generation The World Development Report 2007 www.worldbank.org/wdr2007