Elections in Southern Europe in times of crisis Paolo Segatti, Gema García, Alberto Sanz, and José Ramón Montero
Elections in Southern Europe n Portugal June 2 n Spain November 2 n Greece May 22 June 22 n Italy February 23
Elections in SE an outline n What happened, why and how what theoretical model(s)? n Some questions/evidences for further analyses n Commonalities and differences among countries n After elections a future which is already here
Southern Europe revisiting clichés n Mediterrranean syndrome q Tradicionalism and fatalism q Elitism and charismatic leadership q Low participation and disaffection with politics n Southern European exceptionalism q Clientelism, corruption q Caciquismo, particularism q Discontent q Distrust
What happened? the baseline model n In the United States -- Bartels (23) q Americans responded to the extraodinatry circumstances [of economic crisis] in ways that were quite ordinary. n In Europe -- Bartels (22) q Election outcomes over the course of this Great Recession have provided a good deal of evidence suggesting that voters have simply punished incumbents of every stripe for hard times.
The economy six months before elections, 2-22 Unemployment GDP Inflation (% of GDP) Governmental debt (% of GDP) Greece 2.5-4.9 4.7 29.2 Italy.9-2.4 3. 27 Portugal.8 +.9.4 94.6 Spain 2.6 +.4 3.2 55.2 Sources: World Bank, EUROSTAT, ISTAT
From incumbents to new governments Incumbent governments Resulting governments Greece Majority government PASOK G. Papandreou Grand coalition government PASOK, ND, LAOS L. Papademos New elections - Coalition government ND, PASOK, DIMAR A.Samaras Italy Coalition government PdL, LN, MpA S. Berlusconi Tecnocratic government appointed by Parliament M. Monti Coalition government PD, PdL, Scelta Civica E. Letta Portugal Minority government PS J. Socrates Coalition government PSD, CDS P. Passos Coelho Spain Minority government PSOE J. L. Rodríguez Zapatero Majority government PP Mariano Rajoy
Electoral results 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 5 5 Greece October 29 may-2 June 22 5 4 3 2 Italy 28 2 KKE SYRIZA DIMAR PASOK ANEL ND LAOS XA Centrosinistra Centro Centrodestra Movimento 5 Stelle 5, 4, 3, Spain 5, 4, 3, Portugal 2, 2,,,, March 28 November 2, September 29 June 2 Izquierda Unida Partido Socialista Obrero Español Left Bloc Democratic Unity Coalition* Unión Progreso y Democracia Partido Popular Socialist Social Democratic People's Party
Turnout, 975-23
Aggregate volatility Previous elections Last elections Greece 8.7 42.3 (may) 5.5 (june) Italy.4 39. Spain 4.75.33 Portugal 7.75 2.5
ENEP and ENPP Spain 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2,5,5 975 98 985 99 995 2 25 2 25 Italy 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 97 975 98 985 99 995 2 25 2 25 ENEP (votes) ENEP (parliamentary) ENEP (votes) ENEP (parliamentary) Greece 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 97 975 98 985 99 995 2 25 2 25 ENEP (votes) ENEP (parliamentary) 6 Portugal 5 4 3 2 97 975 98 985 99 995 2 25 2 25 ENEP (votes) ENEP (parliamentary)
What happened? two conventional answers n Retrospective voting economic sanctioning model q All Southern European governments punished for poor assessments of the economy n Swing of the pendulum competency, or accountability, model q Socialdemocrats punished in Portugal and Spain q Conservatives punished in Italy and Greece
Positive (past and future) economic assessments, by vote Spain Portugal Greece Main opposition party Incumbent Main opposition party Incumbent Main opposition party Incumbent.8.8.8.6.6.6.4.4.4.2.2.2 Italy Berlusconi Italy Monti Main opposition party Incumbent Berlusconi Main opposition party Incumbent Monti.8.6.8.6 Past evaluation Future evaluation.4.4.2.2
Governments performance negative evaluations, by vote Spain Portugal Greece.8.8.8.6.6.6.4.4.4.2.2.2 Main opposition party Incumbent Main opposition party Incumbent Main opposition party Incumbent Italy (Berlusconi) Italy (Monti).8.8.6.6.4.4.2.2 Main opposition party Incumbent Berlusconi Main opposition party Incumbent Monti
Other factors of voting some questions n Policy preferences policy shifts? n Ideological identity interaction with economic assessments, less electoral elasticity? n Leaders in times of crisis, also relevants as short-term factors?
Policy shifts? -- preferences for more public social expenses despite higher taxes, by vote Spain Italy.8.8.6.6.4.4.2.2 IU PSOE PP Centrosinistra Mov. 5 Stelle Monti per l'italia Centrodestra Greece Portugal.8.8.6.6.4.4.2.2 KKE SYRIZA PASOK ND ANEK XA PCP-PEV Bloco esquerda PS PPD-PSD CDS-PP
Responsibility for the economic crisis 3 Spain 3 Italy 2 2 3 Greece 3 Portugal 2 2 Country's gov. EU Euro Int. economy Banks
Responsibility of the economic crisis, by vote Spain Italy (Monti) Main opposition party Incumbent Main opposition party Incumbent Monti 3 4 2 3 2 Italy (Berlusconi) Greece Main opposition party Incumbent Berlusconi Main opposition party Incumbent 4 3 3 2 2 Portugal Main opposition party Incumbent 3 2 Country's gov. EU Euro Int. economy Banks
Left-right self-placement Spain Greece 3 3 Percent 2 Percent 2 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 Italy 3 Percent 2 2 4 6 8 Left - right selfplacement
Ideological competition, by vote Spain Left (-4) Centre (5) Centre (6) Right (7-) 8 6 4 2 IU PSOE PP Italy Left (-4) Centre (5) Centre (6) Right (7-) 8 6 4 2 Centrosinistra Mov. 5 Stelle Con Monti per l'italia Centrodestra Greece Left (-4) Centre (5) Centre (6) Right (7-) 8 6 4 2 KKE SYRIZA PASOK ND ANEK XA Graphs by left-right self placement
Average leaders evaluation by their voters Spain Italy Cayo Lara Rubalcaba Rajoy Bersani Grillo Monti Berlusconi 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 Greece Portugal Tsipras Sócrates Samaras Coelho Venizelos Portas 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8
Context and events n Magalhâes (23) ignoring the elephant in the room? n Conventional models for unconventional economic crisis which has engulfed the EU and particularly SE countries? n Incumbents seem to be experiencing an increasing punishment at the polls that goes above and beyond than could expected strictly on the basis of conventional indicators of economic performance
Satisfaction with democracy, 24-22 8 6 4 2 24 26 27 29 22 West Germany Greece Italy Spain Portugal
Confidence in parties, 24-22 35 3 25 Percentage 2 5 5 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 West Germany Greece Italy Spain Portugal
Confidence in Parliaments, 24-22 7 6 5 Percentage 4 3 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 West Germany Greece Italy Spain Portugal
Confidence in the EU, 24-22 8 7 6 5 Percentage 4 3 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 West Germany Greece Italy Spain Portugal
Voting intention since elections
Many thanks!!
Evolution of electoral results (9s-23) Spain Portugal 5, 6 4, 5 3, 4 2, 3, 2, 993 996 2 24 28 2 PSOE PP CDS PCE/IU 99 995 999 22 25 29 2 CiU PNV UPyD Others PS PSD CDS- PP CDU BE Others 4 3 2 Italy 994 996 2 26 28 23 5 4 3 2 Greece Forza Italia/PdL Lega Nord NaNonal Alliance DemocraNc Party 99 994 996 2 24 27 29 22 22 Communist RefundaNon Scelta Civica ND PASOK SYRIZA ANEL GD M5S Others DIMAR KKE LAOS Others