UKRAINE HUMANITARIAN CRISES ANALYSIS 2017 February 2017

UKRAINE HUMANITARIAN CRISES ANALYSIS 2017 February 2017 Each year, Sida conducts a humanitarian allocation exercise in which a large part of its humanitarian budget is allocated to emergencies worldwide. This allocation takes place in the beginning of the year as to ensure predictability for humanitarian organizations and to allow for best possible operational planning. In an effort to truly adhere to the humanitarian principles, Sida bases its allocation decisions on a number of objective indicators and parameters of which the most important are related to the number of affected people, vulnerability of affected people and level of funding in previous years. One of the indicators is also related to forgotten crises in order to ensure sufficient funding to low profile crises. Besides this initial allocation, another part of the humanitarian budget is set aside as an emergency reserve for sudden onset emergencies and deteriorating humanitarian situations. This reserve allows Sida to quickly allocate funding to any humanitarian situation throughout the year, including additional funding to Ukraine. For 2017, the Ukraine crisis is allocated an initial 30 MSEK in January 2017. Close monitoring of the situation in Ukraine will continue throughout the year to determine whether additional funds should be allocated. 1. CRISIS OVERVIEW The armed conflicts in Ukraine will enter their foruth year in spring of 2017, continuing to create humanitarian needs. Ukraine and Russia has been involved in an international conflict since March 2014, after Russia's occupation of Crimea. Since April 2014, there have also been two non-international armed conflicts in the east of Ukraine with the Ukrainian armed forces against armed groups. For the international armed conflict the four Geneva Conventions are applicable. As for the non-international armed conflicts (NIAC) the applicable law to all parties to the conflict, state and non-state actors, are common Article 3 to the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the additional protocol II and customary international humanitarian law applicable to a NIAC. 1 The armed conflicts have led to large flows of displaced people; the Government of Ukraine has registered 1.7 million persons as internally displaced, where the Humanitarian Needs Overview refer to estimates of 800,000 to a million of these residing more permanently in Governmental controlled areas (GCA). There is also 1, 4 million refugees outside Ukraine 2. More than 10,000 people, where of 2,000 civilians, have been killed and at nearly 22,000 have been injured 3. Political solutions to the conflict have so far failed and mutually agreed ceasefires have been broken. The armed conflict has escalated during the second half of 2016, confirming the fragility and unpredictability of the conflict and the need for humanitarian preparedness and contingency planning. Shrinking humanitarian space characterises the situation. Indiscriminate shelling and continued insecurity are placing the civilian population and humanitarian organizations at risk. Access is continuously one of the main challenges for delivery of humanitarian assistance, not only restricted by the ongoing armed conflict, but also by government imposed restrictions on movement of people and goods across the line of contact and by de-facto authorities banning most international organizations from delivering humanitarian aid in areas under their control. Limited humanitarian access had hindered people s access to humanitarian aid, worsening the civilian populations humanitarian situation. The population further faces continued protection threats such as the risk of Explosive Remnants of War (ERWs) and landmines. 700,000 people cross the line of contact on a monthly basis, having to face hours of wait in areas around the few functioning checkpoints, which are unsafe and with insufficient sanitary and health facilities. 1.1 Geographical areas and affected population The Humanitarian Needs Overview () estimates that the number of people affected by the armed conflict has increased from 3.7 million in 2016 to 4,4 million in 2017. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance has also risen from 3,1 million 2016 to 3,8 million 2017, of which just over 50 percent are female. defines the humanitarian needs to be most acute in areas close to the contact line, and that the situation 1 www.rulac.org 2 UNCHR 3 1

in the non-governmental controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions continue to be of serious humanitarian concern with 2,3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in these areas. 4 Of the total 3.8 million people in need, 25 percent are children and another 30 percent elderly, of which 70 percent are women. They, to a greater extent than others, lack access to health care, markets and social benefits and suffer from increasing food prices. 5 Further, people with disabilities and those living in institutions in conflict affected areas are according to needs assessment identified as very vulnerable. Also, women headed households with children are more likely to adopt negative coping mechanisms and being in risk of food insecurity. Nearly one in two IDP women experiences difficulties in finding jobs, particularly affecting coping mechanisms in women headed households. 6 Ukraine is a lower middle-income country, which indicates that the populations coping mechanisms would be stronger than in other more vulnerable contexts. Nevertheless, an Inter Agency Vulnerability Assessment finds that 600,000 people face food insecurity to some extent. The more protected the situation becomes, people have to revert to negative and irreversible coping mechanisms such as reducing education and health expenditures and accumulating depth to cover food expenditures. 7 Ukraine government decision to withhold payment of pensions, social benefits, salaries to public servants and payments to public institutions such as schools and hospitals in areas which are not under their control continue contributed to increased humanitarian needs in these areas. The situation is being exacerbated by the decision taken by the government during 2016 to suspend social payments for between 500,000-600,000 IDPs until their IDP statues is verified, whereof at the time of writing 38 percent are still not accessing their social benefits. Suspension of social payments has meant further depletion of coping mechanisms for beneficiaries and their dependents. Humanitarian actors urges the government of Ukraine to delink the IDP status to access to social benefits, pensions and aid in accordance with international standards and in order to prevent further depletion of coping mechanisms. Working aged IDPs themselves rank opportunity for employment among their highest needs 8, which indicates capacity for self-reliance were livelihood opportunities for IDPs would drastically reduce reliance on humanitarian aid. During 2016 humanitarian actors report on increased IDP return to areas of origin presently not affected by armed clashes. Reports also indicate that some IDPs return involuntarily as they can t afford living cost in governmental controlled areas, especially renting property to live 9. Nevertheless, a recent surveys indicates that a large majority of IDPs would not want to return until the situation has improved. 10 The INFORM risk management index 11 rank Ukraine number 37 out of 191 countries, noteworthy defining Ukraine in high and increasing risk of humanitarian crisis and disasters. Besides Palestine, Ukraine is the country in the world where the risk increased the most (from risk grade below 3 in 2014 to risk grade 5.3 in 2016). Trend persists in 2017, especially considering risk of socio-economic down turn and risks for vulnerable groups. This should to be seen as a warning signal to take into consideration when allocating international aid to prevent further deterioration of vulnerability in Ukraine. The WASH situation is becoming increasingly problematic in eastern Ukraine. The water supply network crosses the line of contact. Parts of the network have been damaged during the armed conflict and systematic factors including unpaid depths continue to cause interruptions in delivery of water threating to affect over four million people on both sides of the contact line. The situation in Ukraine is a protection crisis where continuation of the armed conflict and lack of psychical protection, restriction on freedom of movement of people and goods across the line of contact and restricted access to civil documentation, social benefits and livelihoods for people all are contributing factors. 4 5 6 7 8 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment, Ukraine NGO Forum 30 th of March2015 9 10 National Monitorin System of the Situation with Internally Displaced Persons September 2016 11 www.inform-index.org 2

1.2 Critical Assumptions, risks and threats The main risk for deterioration of the humanitarian situation is escalation of the armed violence as well as continued depletion of coping mechanisms within population residing along the contact line, in nongovernmental controlled areas and among the IDP group. Humanitarian access to areas with the most urgent humanitarian needs is an ongoing and increasing challenge. The parties to the conflict are at all times to grant unhindered access to humanitarian organizations to all affected people, according to their needs and irrespective of where they are located according to IHL. On-going, and at times escalating, fighting has created a difficult security situation hampering humanitarian access. The Government of Ukraine s restriction on movement and access of people and goods passage in and out of non-governmental controlled areas, prevents a fully effective humanitarian response. The defacto authorities in Luhansk and Donetsk has granted very few international humanitarian organizations registration to deliver humanitarian aid in areas under their control. At the time of writing one of the few registered international NGOs has just had their registration revoked by the de-facto authorities. Consequently, a very limited number of international humanitarian actors have access. At present these include Sida strategic humanitarian partners ICRC and UNHCR, where only ICRC is registered in both Donetsk and Luhansk. There are opportunities to deliver through local CSOs but these organizations have limited capacity. A principled humanitarian response 12 including operational independence is essential. Continued work to ensure that all parties to the conflict guarantee free and unimpeded humanitarian access is necessary. A generic risk in all countries with humanitarian needs is the risk of corruption. With general challenges in all societal pillars including law, order, stability and justice - the area of checks and balances also becomes fragile. Ukraine ranks on number 131 on Transparency Internationals Index for 2016. 1.3 Strategic objectives identified in the Humanitarian Response Plan The 2017 HRP give empahsis life-saving activities in areas where humanitarian needs are most acute, but the HRP also acknowledges the increasing need for livelihood opportunities, as many people have exhausted their coping mechanisms. The HRP defines three strategic objectives: 1) Protection: Advocate for and respond to the protection needs of conflict-affected people with due regard to International norms and standards. 2) Assistance: Provide emergency assistance and ensure non-discriminatory access to quality essential services for populations in need. 3) Resilience: Improve the resilience of conflict-affected population, prevent further degradation of the humanitarian situation and promote durable solutions, early recovery and social cohesion. defines the humanitarian needs to be most acute in areas close to the contact line, and that the humanitarian situation in the non-governmental controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions continue to be of serious concern with 2,3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in these areas. 13 The HRP will focus geographically to areas where the humanitarian needs are most acute as well as to the 300,000 most vulnerable IDPs. Access remains the main challenge to reach people most in need, see 1.2. Multi-purpose cash assistance is being mainstreamed in the response implemented in governmental controlled areas. Possibilities for expansion to non-governmental controlled areas are being explored. 2. IN COUNTRY HUMANITARIAN CAPACITIES 2.1 National and local capacities and constraints The primary responsibility for provision of assistance remains with the authorities in accordance with IHL, UNGA resolutions and Guiding Principles on IDPs. Ukraine is a lower middle income country but a weakened economy, inefficiencies and bureaucracy have negatively affected the government s ability to respond to the humanitarian needs. Even if Ukraine has adopted IDP legislation with the purpose of ensuring the right to 12 In accordance with the humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence 13 3

basic social services for IDPs, further work is needed to ensure improved alignment with Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. The government has established the Ministry of Ministry of Temporarily Occupied Territories and IDPs (MTOT&IDPs) mandated to coordinate humanitarian and recovery response. The Ministry s capacity needs to be strengthened and the government s responsibility and acceptance to resume full responsibly need to be ensured. Since the outbreak of the crisis, major parts of the humanitarian response have been provided by Ukrainian civil society volunteer groups and IDP host communities including relatives and friends of IDPs. A high number of local CSOs are also implementing partners of the HRP priorities in 2017. Mechanisms to ensure funding for national and local response need to be established along with systems for capacity strengthening of these actors to ensure a principled and efficient humanitarian response. 2.2 International operational capacities and constraints Most of the larger international humanitarian actors, including ICRC, the UN and INGOs, have operations in Ukraine. The international response is led by the Humanitarian Coordinator (also Resident Coordinator) and there is an HCT, which include national and international NGOs. The cluster system was established two years ago and OCHA holds the coordination responsibility in accordance with its mandate. Steps, including conducting a coordination system review, have been undertaken to improve the efficiency of the coordination. Efforts, especially to strengthening coordination at field level, have been undertaken but implementing partners are reporting on possibilities for improvement. The HCT aims at closely coordinate with Ukrainian national counter parts and to strengthening their capacity to resume capacity, see further 2.1. At the time of writing there are few international humanitarian organizations with access to the geographical areas with the most urgent humanitarian needs, which severely restricts the humanitarian response (see 1.2). 2.3 International and Regional assistance The 2016 HRP is 30 percent funded one of the lowest in a global comparison; where the logistics and coordination clusters were most well-funded in percentage of total ask. The funding fatigue for Ukraine is likely to increase in 2017, and consequently humanitarian priorities will need to be further specified and synergies with development cooperation needs to be implemented, see further 3.1. Sweden was the 7 th largest humanitarian donor in Ukraine (excluding core support to UN Agencies) and the 7 th largest to the HRP in 2016. The major donors include the US, Germany, EC, Japan, Canada Netherlands and the UK. 3. SIDAs HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN 3.1. The role of Sida Sweden initiated its humanitarian support of 37 million SEK to Ukraine in 2014 through its embassy in Kyiv, which also contributed 10 million SEK to UNDP s recovery programme in eastern Ukraine. Sida took over responsibility for the humanitarian funding in 2015 and has continued some of partnerships established in 2014 but during 2016 reduced number of partners to focus on these with access to areas where the needs are most acute. During 2016 ICRC has been the humanitarian actor with the most operational space on both sides of the contact line providing multi-sectorial humanitarian assistance and implementing its protection mandate, and consequently Sida s largest partner. Sida supports UNHCR to provide protection and shelter/nfis to IDPs and to the population residing in conflict affected areas. Sida has supported OCHA since the establishment in Ukraine to strengthen a coordinated humanitarian response. Sida has also raised the perspectives of gender and minority groups in its dialogue with partners and relevant implementers of the humanitarian response, and notes that these issues are better considered in the response. There are 148 national NGOs part of the HRP and large parts of the humanitarian response is implemented by national and local actors. Sida will continue to work with partners to explore and implement opportunities to further strengthen national and local humanitarian actors capacity to provide assistance and strengthening resilience of the affected populations. 4

Sida s humanitarian support is managed from Sida HQ in Stockholm with support from Sida staff at the Swedish Embassy in Kyiv. Sida has conducted five field visits to Eastern Ukraine since the outbreak of the armed conflict and has to the extent possible participated in extended HCT meetings. Sida has provided input to the planning of 2017 response and actively engaged in discussion on synergies with development cooperation and had dialogue with its implementing partner and likeminded donors. Development of synergies between humanitarian and development interventions in Ukraine is necessary to prevent long-term dependency on humanitarian aid and to strengthening national response capacity as well as to enable the humanitarian actors to focus its response to where needs are most urgent. Further, the HRP highlights the need for faster speed of reform processes to ensure the State s capacity to assume in full its role as duty bearer towards all of its citizens 14. Sweden contributed with over 200 million SEK to development cooperation with Ukraine in 2016 within the areas of economic integration into to the EU, Democracy and Human Rights and Environment. Components include market development and a more efficient public administration. A better functioning public administration in Ukraine would also be to the benefit of the humanitarian response as it could improve capacity of the State to respond to the humanitarian needs as well as improved efficiency within the administration to facilitate for international humanitarian organizations operations in the country. During 2016 the Swedish Embassy conducted a study reviewing possibilities to strengthen synergies between the humanitarian and development cooperation. Particular attention was given to employment opportunities, a high ranking priority for the IDPs themselves. However the study concluded that employment interventions would require extensive financing and technical follow up, which Sida might not have the possibility to provide. Sida will implement part of a comprehensive EU financed decentralisation programme (EULED) with focus on access to administrative services, where a needs assessment will be conducted in 2017. As input to the analysis, information from humanitarian needs assessments has been provided to ensure conflict affected and IDP populations needs are considered in line with a conflict sensitive approach. Efforts to strengthening synergies will be further explored during 2017 to ensure smooth transition, as Swedish humanitarian aid to Ukraine is likely to reduce in coming year, would situation not drastically escalate. 3.2. Response Priorities 2017 Sida focus is recommended to include: Protection: The situation in Ukraine is characterised as protection crisis. According to the there are 2,9 million people in need of protection. Civilians lack protection from indiscriminate use of force by all parties to the conflict. Large areas are weapon contaminated causing protection threats to the population. IDPs lack information on access to services, documentation and legal aid, and face increasing difficulties to cover basic needs. 500,000-600,000 has had their social payments suspended during 2016. Sida is recommended to provide support towards respect for IHL as well as protection for the conflict affected population including IDPs. Emergency assistance: There is a continued need to provide emergency assistance within WASH, health and nutrition, shelter/nfi, food security and livelihood and education sectors. Sida is recommended to continue to concentrate its support to areas where humanitarian needs are most acute. Resilience: in line with HRP 2017 Sida is recommended to provide some limited support to livelihoods interventions in areas close to the contact line to contribute to strengthened resilience and promote durable solution and to some extent early recovery. 3.3. Partners As a consequence of growing humanitarian needs globally the Sida allocation for Ukraine in 2017 is limited to 30M SEK. Sida is therefore recommended to focus support to areas of where the HRP has identified that humanitarian needs are most acute and to partners with access to these areas,including ICRC and UNHCR. Support to coordination will continue in 2017. 14 HRP 5

International Committee of the Red Cross: ICRC is the only humanitarian actor, which at the time of writing has access and is operational in non-governmental controlled areas in both Donetsk and Luhansk. With few other international humanitarian actors operational, ICRC has taken on a large scale assistance programme covering shelter repairs, NFI and food distributions, cash support/cash for work and are initiating small scale livelihood interventions. All ICRC assistance interventions are focused in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. ICRC is also a strong protection actor and includes work to promote protection of civilians and respect for IHL. Proposed amount for ICRC is 14 MSEK. United Nations High Commission for Refugees: UNHCR is one of the larger partners in the HRP and is assessed by Sida to be one of the main humanitarian actors in Ukraine. UNHCR has received registration in Luhansk. UNHCR is the lead in the Shelter/NFI and Protection clusters. Protection is prioritised both in the HRP and within Sida s humanitarian response plan. Proposed amount for UNHCR is 10 MSEK. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: OCHA will be supported to provide coordination of the humanitarian response in Ukraine. Proposed allocation for OCHA is 1,5 MSEK. Norwegian Refugee Council: in line with HRP 2017 Sida is recommended provide some limited support to livelihoods interventions in areas close to the contact line to contribute to strengthened resilience, implemented through NRC. NRC is part of the HRP and a member of the HCT. NRC provides humanitarian assistance within shelter/nfi and protection/legal aid sectors and has since 2016 initiated livelihood programming from affected communities along the line of contact. Proposed amount for NRC is 4,5 MSEK. Sida s humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in 2017 Recommended partner for Sector/focus of work Proposed amount Sida support (MSEK) ICRC Multi-sector: Protection, health, shelter/nfis, 14,0 food assistance, multi-purpose cash UNHCR Protection and shelter/nfi, multi-purpose cash 10,0 OCHA Coordination 1,5 NRC Multi sector: Livelihoods, legal aid and 4,5 shelter/nfi TOTAL: 30 MSEK References: Humanitarain Needs Overview Ukraine () 2017, November 2016 Humanitarain Response Plan Ukraine (HRP) 2017, November 2016 ICRC appeal 2017 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment, Ukraine NGO Forum 30 th of March2015 National Monitorin System of the Situation with Internally Displaced Persons, IOM September 2016 www.inform-index.org https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/pol10/0001/2015/en and https://www.hrw.org/europe/centralasia/ukrainehttp://www.rulac.org/countries/ukraine 6