political trust why context matters Edited by Sonja Zmerli and Marc Hooghe

political trust why context matters Edited by Sonja Zmerli and Marc Hooghe

Sonja Zmerli and Marc Hooghe 2011 First published by the ECPR Press in 2011 The ECPR Press is the publishing imprint of the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR), a scholarly association, which supports and encourages the training, research and cross-national cooperation of political scientists in institutions throughout Europe and beyond. The ECPR s Central Services are located at the University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Typeset by AnVi Composers Printed and bound by Lightning Source British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Hardback ISBN: 978-1-907301-23-0 www.ecprnet.eu/ecprpress

contents List of Figures and Tables Acknowledgements Biographies vii xi xiii Chapter One: Introduction: The Context of Political Trust Marc Hooghe and Sonja Zmerli 1 Chapter Two: Measuring Political Trust Across Time and Space Sofie Marien 13 Chapter Three: Falling or Fluctuating Trust Levels? The Case of the Netherlands Mark Bovens and Anchrit Wille 47 Chapter Four: Winners, Losers and Three Types of Trust Sonja Zmerli and Ken Newton 67 Chapter Five: Trustworthy States, Trusting Citizens? A Multilevel Study into Objective and Subjective Determinants of Political Trust Tom van der Meer and Paul Dekker 95 Chapter Six: Political Trust and Distrust In Post-Authoritarian Contexts Richard Rose and William Mishler 117 Chapter Seven: Corruption, the Inequality Trap and Trust in Government Eric M. Uslaner 141 Chapter Eight: Dissatisfied Democrats, Policy Feedback and European Welfare States, 1976 2001 Staffan Kumlin 163 Chapter Nine: Evaluations of Welfare State Reforms in Germany: Political Trust Makes a (Big) Difference Eva-Maria Trüdinger and Uwe Bollow 187 Index

list of figures and tables Figures Figure 2.1: Solution confirmatory factor analysis 19 Figure 2.2: Solution confirmatory factor analysis with imposed constraints 23 Figure 2.3: Trends in trust in political institutions in the Nordic countries 28 Figure 2.4: Trends in trust in political institutions in Southern Europe 28 Figure 2.5: Trends in trust in political institutions in other established democracies 29 Figure 2.6: Trends in trust in political institutions in new democracies 30 Figure 2.7: Trends in satisfaction with government in the Nordic countries 32 Figure 2.8: Trends in satisfaction with government in Southern European countries 33 Figure 2.9: Trends in satisfaction with government in the other established countries 34 Figure 2.10: Trends in satisfaction with government in new European democracies 35 Figure 1, Appendix B: Solution Confirmatory Factor Analysis (2006) 39 Figure 2, Appendix B: Solution Confirmatory Factor Analysis (2004) 39 Figure 1, Figure 2, Appendix C: Solution Confirmatory Factor Analysis with Imposed Constraints (2006) 40 Appendix C: Solution Confirmatory Factor Analysis with Imposed Constraints (2004) 42 Figure 3.1: Satisfaction with cabinet and with government performance 1995 2008 51 Figure 3.2: Trust in cabinet 2003 2010 52 Figure 3.3: Trust in cabinet, political parties and parliament in the Netherlands 1997 2009 53 Figure 3.4: Agreement with negative statements about politicians and political parties in the period 1977 2006 54 Figure 3.5: Percentage of respondents who are satisfied with the way democracy works in the Netherlands 1974 2009 54

viii political trust Figure 3.6: Trust in cabinets (national government) in the Netherlands compared with the other EU members 1997 2008 56 Figure 3.7: Satisfaction with the way democracy works in the Netherlands and consumer confidence in the Netherlands 1974 2009 60 Figure 3.8: Confidence in the economy and trust in cabinet in the Netherlands February 2007 July 2009 62 Figure 6.1: Variations in trust within and across nations 125 Figure 6.2: Trends in political trust 1993 2004 126 Figure 8.1: Welfare state benefit generosity 171 Figure 8.2: Satisfaction with democracy and unemployment benefit generosity at different unemployment rates 178 Tables Table 2.1: Solution confirmatory factor analysis 20 Table 2.2: Testing for cross-cultural equivalence in trust in political institutions 23 Table 2.3: Trust in political institutions in Europe 26 Table 1, Table 1, Table 2, Appendix A: European Social Survey Completed Questionnaires 38 Appendix C: Testing for cross-cultural equivalence in trust in political institutions (2006) 40 Appendix C: Testing for cross-cultural equivalence in trust in political institutions (2004) 41 Table 3.1: Short- and long-term explanations for the flux in political trust 58 Table 4.1: Distribution of social and political trust 75 Table 4.2: Mokken scale analysis, twelve trust items, pooled data 75 Table 4.3: Table 4.4: Table 4.5: Table 4.6: Nonparametric correlations between social trust, political trust and socio-economic and attitudinal items 78 Nonparametric correlations between three types of trusters and socio-economic and attitudinal items 79 Linear regression, political trust index with particular and general social trust as predictors 80 Linear regression, political trust index with three types of trusters as predictors 81

list of figures and tables ix Table 4.7: Logistic regressions, particular trusters and general trusters 82 Table 4.8: Logistic regressions, particular trusters and general trusters with two types of political trust as predictors 83 Appendix 1: Countries included in the analyses, WVS 2005 7 88 Table 5.1: Determinants of trust in parliament 105 Table 5.2: Bivariate correlations of intermediary factors with contextual determinants and with trust in parliament 106 Table 5.3: Explaining contextual effects on political trust 109 Appendix 1: Countries, objective characteristics, and average levels of trust in parliament 113 Table 6.1: Trust in political institutions 123 Table 6.2: Combining contextual and individual influences on trust. Multilevel model of institutional trust 129 Appendix A: NEB surveys in the analysis 135 Appendix B: Coding of variables 136 Table 7.1: Table 7.2: Table 7.3: Determinants of public service deterioration in transition countries: State Failure Data 149 Determinants of service interruption in transition: Aggregate models from BEEPS 2005 151 Determinants of service interruption in transition: Individual-level models from BEEPS 2005 153 Table 7.4: Determinants of trust in government (LiTS data) 157 Table 8.1: Multilevel models of satisfaction with democracy 173 Table 8.2: Multilevel model of satisfaction with democracy 177 Table 9.1: Acceptance of welfare state reforms: old-age pensions 198 Table 9.2: Acceptance of welfare state reforms: health care policy 199 Table 9.3: Acceptance of welfare state reforms: family policy 200