U.S. Mexico Trade Relationship

U.S. Mexico Trade Relationship May 2017

Mexico: the 15 th largest world economy With a GDP of 1.1 trillion dollars and strong macroeconomic stability a country of young, talented and highly-skilled people an example of macroeconomic stability ready to increase productivity through structural reforms open for business

Mexico is one of the most open economies Mexico s FTAs network includes 46 countries which account for 70% of world GDP, two-thirds of global imports and a billion consumers. EFTA 1.1 T 1.1 T 333 JAPAN 177 2.1 62 CENTRAL AMERICA NAFTA 19.6 T 2.7 T 7.2 T 52 4 19 PANAMA COLOMBIA EUROPEAN UNION 16.3 T 5.2 T 9.3 T ISRAEL 300 89 64 4.3 T 1.2 T 648-2.3 0.57 PERU 189 2.8 CHILE 241 39 38 63 292 54 18 URUGUAY 53 9 0.1 IMF WB UNCTAD 2.9 GDP (billion dollars) IMPORTS (billion dollars) FDI (billion dollars) IMF 2015. World Bank, 2015. UNCTAD 2015 FDI outward stock

Mexico is a growing economy Mexico s trade policy has provided the backbone for growth in the economy 10 th largest world exporter and 1 st in Latin America 9 th largest world importer 5 th leading recipient of FDI among emerging economies Total Exports $374 billion 1.4% 2013 GDP 2.3% 2014 Total Imports $387 billion Source: INEGI, SE-DGIE (Sep. 2016), WTO, UNCTAD, Brookings Institution, SHCP. 2.6% 2015 2.3% 2016 $761 billion in total trade $457 billion in FDI attracted since 1999 125 million consumer market/ 60% middle class

Mexico has also become a diversified export-oriented economy Over two decades of sound macroeconomic policies & free trade policies are paying off: Mexico has transformed its export structure into a manufacturing global powerhouse Mexican Exports 90% Oil Manufacturing Other Mfg 450000 400000 350000 $ Million 300000 250000 200000 150000 78% Oil 100000 50000 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SE-NAFTA with data from INEGI

Mexico is a leader in the agrifood sector: 1 st Exporter and producer 1 st Exporter 1 st Exporter 1 st Exporter 3 th Exporter 4 th Exporter 3 th Exporter 2 nd Exporter of watermelon, melon and papaya 4 th Exporter of vegetables

Mexico is a leader in advanced industries: AEROSPACE Mexico is the 6 th supplier to the American aerospace industry. IT 3 rd largest exporter in the world. ELECTRIC- ELECTRONIC Leading flat television screen exporter in the world. AUTOMOTIVE AND AUTO PARTS 7 th producer and 4 th exporter globally of new light vehicles in the world.

Main Mexican Exports 8.1% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 4.2% Light vehicles 1.1% Refrigerators and cooling systems Auto parts and accessories Trucks Computers and parts 12 Main Mexican exports TVs 3.9% Telephones and communications equipment 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.8% Gold Medical and surgical instruments Furniture and parts Tractors Electrical conductors Source: ProMéxico with information fromthe Global Trade Atlas 2013. * Percentage of value in total exports.

Mexico s ambitious ongoing trade negotiations EFTA 2.4 1.1 T 333 718 45 207 TURKEY PACIFIC ALLIANCE 722 155 60 BRAZIL 1.8 T 179 181 ARGENTINA 583 60 37 EUROPEAN UNION IMF WTO UNCTAD 6.0 5.2 T 9.3 T GDP (billion dollars) IMPORTS (billion dollars) FDI (billion dollars) JORDAN 37 0.6 20 MALAYSIA 296 137 2.9 176 NEW ZEALAND 174 17 SINGAPORE 293-2.3297 92.3 0.57 AUSTRALIA 1.3 T 208 396 36 Mexico is on the list of the top 10 countries to invest in 2017 IMF 2015. World Bank, 2015. UNCTAD 2015 FDI outward stock

North America: a dynamic economic powerhouse NAFTA created a thriving regional market of 480 million people and a combined GDP of over $20 trillion. Today NAFTA partners make up 15% of world trade, 28% of global GDP, and 14% of foreign direct investment inflows. Since 1994, intra-nafta trade has nearly quadrupled, exceeding a trillion dollars in 2016. Source: SE with import data from Statistics Canada, Banxico, and USDOC, and World Bank.

Since NAFTA, U.S.-Mexico trade has multiplied by six Mexico is the U.S. third-largest trading partner $1.5 billion dollars in products are bilaterally traded each day 500 U.S.-Mexico Trade 461 494 506 534 531 525 $ Billion 400 300 200 100 82 131 108 101 197 173 157 247 233 231 267 235 290 348 367 332 305 392 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 US Exports to Mexico US Imports from Mexico Source: USDOC.

Mexico is the U.S. s second-largest export market and second-largest supplier of goods U.S. exports to Mexico reached $231 billion last year more than 16% of its sales worldwide. U.S. imports from Mexico reached $294 billion. Mexico has a market share of 13% of US total imports. U.S. Exports 2016 U.S. Imports 2016 Mexico Buys more than: BRICS UK, Germany, France & Italy Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, & South Korea China 116 130 163 180 231 Mexico Supplies more than: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Singapore UK, Germany, France & Italy 259 260 294 Billion dollars Billion dollars Source: USDOC. BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa

US-Mexico strategic partners When Mexico exports, the United States exports. There is a 40% U.S. value-added in Mexico s exports to the U.S. 40% U.S. value added in final exports of selected countries to the U.S. 25% U.S. exports also benefit from Mexico s network of free trade agreements with 46 countries, providing preferential market access to 70% of world GDP and two-thirds of global imports. 8% 5% 4.0% 2% Mexico Canada Malaysia South Korea China Japan Mexico and the United States do not simply trade goods; we work together to manufacture them Source: NBER, Global Value database in Koopman, Powers, Wang, Wei (September 2010, revised March 2011)

US-Mexico trade is diversified and highly integrated, strengthening supply chains in key industries ELECTRIC-ELECTRONIC $143 billion dollars in electrical and electronic equipment are traded between Mexico and the U.S. per year. Mexico is the leading home appliance exporter in Latin America, and the 6th globally. AUTO & AUTO-PARTS Mexico is the 7 th largest producer and 4 th exporter globally of new light vehicles in the world. $123 billion dollars in cars and parts are traded between Mexico and the U.S. annually. 11% of light vehicles sold in the U.S. were produced in Mexico. Mexico is the main auto parts supplier to the U.S.,; it is the 5 th largest in the world. Source: SE with data from Brookings Institution, US Census Bureau, Banxico, and Comtrade.

NAFTA promotes trade specialization US exports are concentrated in grains, meat and oilseeds, accounting for 50% of agricultural exports to Mexico. Nearly 50% of Mexico s agricultural exports to the US are fruits and vegetables. US agricultural exports to Mexico 2016 $18 billion US agricultural imports from Mexico 2016 $24.8 billion Other 44% Meat 18% Dairy Products 8% Other 30% Vegetables 23% Oil Seeds 10% Grains 20% Sweeteners 6% Beverages 18% Fruits 23% Source: USDOC. Agricultural products include chapters 1 24 HS

NAFTA also promotes a more integrated North American agricultural market The U.S. exports $5.6 billion in grains, oilseeds and animal feed to Mexico, and Mexico produces cattle, hogs and poultry (2016). Mexico exports $590 million of bovine calves to the U.S. and imports $3 billion in meat and poultry from the U.S. (2016) Mexico contributes with 35% of the U.S. total bovine animals imports Mexico accounts for 20% of the U.S. total meat exports Source: SE-Washington with data from Wisertrade.

North America is emerging as a global energy power Mexico is the US largest energy market, consuming over $20 billion in energy goods Canada is the US biggest energy supplier, providing over $54 billion in commodities 2016 US trade in energy with Mexico and Canada totals $100 billion, accounting for 40% of its total trade Source: SE-Washington with data from USDOC $2.2 B $3.4 B $36.2 B $3.7 B $5.1 B $1.0 B $190 M $2.8 B $4.6 B $5.1 B $1.5 B $6.0 B $10.3 B $2.0 B $1.2 B $660 M $7.6 B Electricity Diesel & fuels Crude oil Gasoline Natural gas Liquefied gases

Mexico is an important export destination for each U.S. state Mexico ranks among the top 3 export markets for 31 states 1 OR CA 15.4% #REF! WA 1.4% 2.5% NV 5.1% ID % in Total Exports 4.8% UT 6.1% 37.8% #REF! MT 2.7% 1 AZ 1 More than 15% Between 10% and 15% Less than 10% WY 3.4% CO NM 42.9% 14.2% 6.1% 24.7% NE KS TX ND SD 22.9% OK 18.5% 39.8% #REF! 1 2 3 Mexico s rank as an export market for the state Mexico s share in U.S. exports by State (2016) 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 MN 12.2% 10.7% 2 IA 19.0% MO AR WI 18.4% 12.0% 14.5% IL #REF! 15.9% 7.7% KY #REF! 14.2% TN MS MI 9.9% 12.7% LA #REF! 11.6% WV IN OH 14.1% 13.1% AL GA 9.9% 3.6% 6.8% SC FL VT VA 6.7% NY 4.0% 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 22.1% 2 #REF! PA 2 10.0% 2 3 2 2 2 2 NC 10.1% 5.4% 3 4.3% ME 1.6% NH 10.7% MA9.6% RI 9.2% CT 7.4% NJ 8.3% DE 3.2% MD 4.5% 2 2 2 2 Source: SE- NAFTA with data from Wisertrade.

Nearly 5 million U.S. jobs depend on trade in goods and services with Mexico U.S. Employment Related to Trade in Goods and Services with Mexico (Jobs in thousands) OR CA 57.2 565.5 #REF! WA 106.8 NV 43.6 AK ID 10.7 23.3 UT 46.7 AZ 89.3 #REF! MT 16.8 WY 9.1 CO NM 26.8 88.0 13.4 15.4 NE KS TX ND SD 33.9 OK 47.7 382.0 #REF! 50.6 MN 92.9 IA 53.1 MO 97.4 AR WI 41.6 LA #REF! 65.4 96.3 IL #REF! 200.2 #REF! 99.7 MS IN MI 138.0 #REF! 95.5 WV OH #REF! 178.2 61.3 KY AL 40.8 67.2 TN GA 152.5 23.3 VT VA 133.8 #REF! NC 151.5 70.4 SC FL NY 322.2 PA 199.9 #REF! 290.2 NH 22.1 MA 118.5 RI CT NJ DE ME 11.4 22.4 16.9 61.1 140.8 15.2 MD 96.5 HI 23.6 Greater than 100 50-99 Less than 50 Source: Jobs figures are from 2014, according to Growing Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico, Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2016.

Mexican investment strengthens US competitiveness and supports US jobs Mexican companies have: Invested over $52 billion in the US; and export more than $1 billion to the global market Over 6,500 businesses in the US, providing over 120,000 jobs Services Food Manufacturing Cinepolis IUSA Cemex Kaltex Famsa Softtek Bimbo America Movil Gruma Femsa DeAcero Bio-Pappel GCC Coppel Lala Qualfon La Costeña Sigma Mexichem Interceramic Chedraui Carso Frugo Alimentos Neoris Omnilife Bachoco Condumex Corporacion EG Azteca BBG Wireless Zucarmex Elamex Lamosa Alpek America Televisa Minsa Helvex Arca Grupo Bal Grupo Mexico Monex Continental Nemak Vitro Banorte Vector Industrias CH Kuo Interacciones Enlace Verzatec Xignux Financial Grupo Rassini Automotive services Metalsa Salinas GIS Katcon Source: SE-Washington with information from imapdata 2015 and SelectUSA for export figure. */ FDI figure from 2016 IMF Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS), using outward position (stock) data 2015.

California - Mexico Trade Relationship In 2016, trade between California and Mexico surpassed $71 billion Mexico is California s largest export market. Mexico accounted for 15.4% of California's exports worldwide in 2016. Exports: $25.2 billion Imports: $46.4 billion Source: wisertrade.org (2016) and ) with data from imapdata as of December 2015.

Source: wisertrade.org (2016), NAICS California Mexico trade by industry

California s Exports to Mexico since NAFTA ü 287% increase in California s exports to Mexico under NAFTA ü Over 565,500 jobs in California depend on trade with Mexico 26.8 25.2 17.5 16.3 7.7 California s Exports to Mexico (In millions of dollars) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: wisertrade.org (2016), Jobs figures are from 2014, according to Growing Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico, Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2016.

Mexican investment support jobs in California Mexican companies operate 735 business establishments in California and provide 13,296 local jobs. Source: Mexico s Ministry of Economy with data from imapdata, as of December 2015

Challenges Expand NAFTA benefits to all sectors and regions of the three countries. Streamline regional integration. Strengthen regional value chains. Efficient border management. Develop new elements of competitiveness. Rising protectionism.

NAFTA 2.0 NAFTA modernization should rely on: Liberalization ü Goods ü Services ü Investment Competitiveness ü Innovation ü Trade facilitation ü Regulatory cooperation ü Border efficiency Economic integration ü Supply chains ü Energy ü Talent

NAFTA 2.0 A NAFTA 2.0 should be based on three basic elements: è A shared assessment that reflects a balanced perception of the benefits that each country has gained; è A recognition that there is room for modernization, and è A win-win-win proposition; the outcome of this process must generate benefits for all.

It is time to speak up in favor of free trade When skeptics accuse free trade agreements (FTAs) of job losses in U.S. manufacturing they focus on the wrong culprit: Globalization and technological changes have led to adjustments in the manufacturing sector. FTAs are not the problem. They are part of the solution. Mexico and the United States must continue promoting free trade and regional integration, otherwise we will lose international competitiveness. Both countries need to engage in an educational campaign that counteracts the fact-free, protectionist voices that are dominating the media. Governments cannot do this alone: the participation of businessmen, consumers, academia and civil society is needed to tell the real story. We need to better explain how free trade creates jobs, promotes innovation, and provides societies with the tools to face the challenges of globalization.

Francisco Tovar Economic Affairs Embassy of Mexico Washington, DC ftovar@sre.gob.mx More information: www.naftamexico.net

U.S.-Mexico Trade in Services US Exports US Imports $23.8 B $9.7 B $14.1 B 1999 2015 U.S.-Mexico trade in services has doubled since 1999 Telecommunications 3% Financial services $49.5 B Travel $19.5 B $30.0 B Royalties 10% 5% Transport 14% Telecommunications 5% Financial services 2% Royalties 3% Transport 11% U.S. EXPORTS Other 16% U.S. IMPORTS Other 17% Travel 62% 52% Source: USDOC with data from BEA. Financial services include financial and insurance services, telecommunications include IT services, royalties include charges for the use of intellectual property. 30

US Mexico agricultural trade has multiplied by five since NAFTA Mexico is the 3 rd destination for US agricultural products and its 2 nd largest source of imports $ Billion 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NAFTA U.S.-Mexico Agricultural Trade 27.6 28.7 23.5 24.9 17.1 17.719.221.122.824.8 20.9 18.3 12.0 14.7 14.8 16.3 13.4 11.3 12.4 12.1 13.1 10.5 10.8 10.9 9.3 9.5 9.5 15.6 3.4 4.4 3.3 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.3 6.1 7.0 7.1 7.6 8.1 9.0 10.412.2 12.5 14.0 17.818.7 18.0 19.3 17.518.0 3.1 3.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.3 7.2 8.2 6.5 7.8 7.7 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 US Exports to Mexico US Imports from Mexico 42.8 40.4 40.3 37.2 36.6 34.9 Source: USDOC. Agricultural products include chapters 1 24 HS 31

California Mexico trade by main products Exports to Mexico: millions of US dollars Product 2016 Parts for Motor Vehicles 1,186 Electric Apparatus for Line Telephony 1,058 Oil from Petrol & Bitrum 814 Electronic Integrated Circuits 801 Motor cars & Vehicles 615 Automatic Data Process Machines Medical, surgical, dental products 587 535 Electrical Apparatus 453 Imports from Mexico: millions of US dollars Product 2016 Motor Cars & Vehicles for Transportation 9,203 TV Recorders 3,719 Motor Vehicles for Transport of Goods Automatic Data Process Machines Medical, surgical, dental products 3,004 2,180 1,877 Fresh Fruit 1,261 Parts for Motor Vehicles 1,056 Semiconductor Devices 1,052 Source: wisertrade.org (2016), 4-digit HTS Classification System

Cross-border trade facilitation Set a concrete goal for reducing the maximum time for crossing the border some have even gone as far as suggesting a maximum crossing time of 30 minutes. 1 million people and 300 thousand vehicles crossing the border daily. 1 million dollars in products are traded every minute along the border. $28.2 U.S. Mexico Trade by Main POEs Value by all surface modes in $ billion, 2015 $15.8 $10.3 $38.5 $106.3 $91.6 $455 billion bilaterally traded by surface Border infrastructure: To develop strategic corridors to link major industrial clusters on both sides of the border. Border regulation: to harmonize customs procedures and requirements. Source: SE-Washington with data from USDOT, BTS $18.4 33

US timeline for negotiation using TPA Negotiation Reports Congressional approval and implementation Start of the NAFTA modernization Consultations with all congressional committees with jurisdiction over the agreement and compliance with TPA 2015 objectives, policies and priorities. Prior to signing the agreement Publication of the text of the Agreement by USTR 60 days prior to signature Signing Publication of the USITC report on the impact of the agreement Between 90 and 105 days after signing Implementing bill submission to both Senate and the House Vote in the House of Representatives Report to the Congress whereby the President determines that the other party has taken the necessary measures to comply with the Agreement. 30 days prior to entry into force Vote in he Senate 45 days 15 days 15 days 15 days Publication of the USTR report on the specific objectives of the Agreement 30 days before the start of the renegotiation Notification to Congress 90 days prior to the start of the negotiation Conclusion negotiation Publication of the Consultative Group report by USTR 30 days after notification of intent to sign. Submission to congress by the Executive of the list of necessary amendments to the legislation 60 days after the signature Submission of draft bill, administrative actions and support materials No deadlines Report by the House Ways and Means Committee Report by the Senate Finance Committee Executive - Congress Consultations 90 days of session, both cameras must work simultaneously 34