Labour Market Data and their Application in Migration Governance First MIRPAL Conference and Thematic Workshops World Bank DfID XXI Century Foundation Moscow, May 31 June 3, 2010 Nilim Baruah ILO DWT AND COUNTRY OFFICE for Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Outline of Presentation 1. Introduction 2. Admission policies 3. LM data & application main sources & methods 4. Main data sources in the RF 6. Application in countries of origin
1. Introduction Developing the right policy and legislative response that balances the different interests and effectively governs migration is a complex and difficult process particularly whereas admission and post admission policies are concerned. Migration policy and planning has to take into account both shorter term labour market needs and longer term demographic or population concerns. Labour shortages result from supply of persons not meeting labour demand (absolute or relative labour shortages). 30 to 50% of companies in various sectors are short of labour (2008, according to Russia s Ministry of Health and Social Development). Adverse demographic trends herald a large reduction in the employable population, which will aggravate the current labour shortages. The areas of Siberia and Russia s Far-East, affected by the current population exodus, are likely to be hit the hardest.
2. Admission Policies Temporary labour migration Permanent immigration Rights of migrant workers (post admission)
3. Labour Market Data Main sources and methods to indentify labour shortages 3.1. Administrative data about vacancies Information on unfilled vacancies is frequently obtained from vacancy registers at the employment services
3. Labour Market Data (cont d) Table 1 - Vacancy registers: strengths and weaknesses Advantages Registered vacancies are administrative data, thus available regularly and almost immediately More cost-effective compared to a regular survey Possibility to calculate time series backwards to start from the beginning, which allows for tracing and diagnosing changes in the size of market demand The archive includes both stock and inflow of vacancies, and, possibly, breakdowns by occupations Measure and explanation of employment services market penetration (coverage) Disadvantages Registered vacancies are only part of the market Data on economic activities and occupations may not be harmonised to classifications used in standard surveys Double counting may be a problem in some employment services Captured vacancies may or not include the temporary work agencies ones Source: ILO (2009): Assessment of Data Sources and Methodology Development for Measuring Foreign Labour Requirements in the RF.
3. Labour Market Data Main sources and methods to indentify labour shortages (cont d) 3. 2. Employers surveys can be a cost-effective way to project labour market needs for migrant workers UK National Employers Skills Surveys to estimate the scale and pattern of skills shortages, once in two years, representative sample. Italian Excelsior Information System implemented by the Union of Italian Chambers of Commerce. Employers are asked about the their hiring intentions of foreign workers in the next year by occupation. Representative sample.
3. Labour Market Data (cont d) 3. 3. Labour force surveys Table 2 - Labour Force Surveys: strengths + weaknesses Advantages Broad range of issues covered; Possibility to get information broken down by skill, occupation and geographical location; Availability of time series for an assessment of changes over time in skill requirements, their changes, skill gaps among specific categories (occupation, education, graduates); Can be used to determine characteristics of ILM and to study causes and consequences of ILM; Can be used to make inter-censual stock estimates. Disadvantages Small sample size; Sample design often not optimized to capture ILM; Coverage tends to exclude foreign population and those living in group quarters; Availability of datasets may not be timely enough. Frequent information. Source: ILO, Department of Statistics; ILO (2009): Assessment of Data Sources and Methodology Development for Measuring Foreign Labour Requirements in the RF.
3. Labour Market Data (cont d) Table 3 ILO is currently integrating migration related questions in LFS Year Country Focus 2006 Armenia -Return migrants -Remittances Thailand -Immigrants 2007 Ecuador -Emigrants -Reasons to emigrate -Social networks -Remittances Egypt -Emigrants -Remittances 2009 Mauritania -Full core module Source: ILO, Department of Statistics: Statistics on International Labour Migration.
3. Labour Market Data (cont d) 3. 4. Quantitative Model-based Projections A relatively sophisticated and data demanding method resulting in a range of medium (5 years) and long term (10 years or more) forecasts 3. 5. Sectoral Analysis and Consultation UK studies on labour shortages for seven key sectors (construction, agriculture, health, finance, hospitality, food processing and social care) Consultation with social partners
3. Labour Market Data (cont d) 3. 6. Indicators Based on the information sources some countries have then relied on a series of indicators which measure the presence and nature of labour shortages and whether these can be filled by domestic labour force or by recruiting foreign workers. UK 12 Indicators of shortage based on employers surveys, supply-side surveys (LFS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings) and administrative records (Jobcentre Plus). Indicators are grouped around Employment and Price. Spanish Catalogue of Occupations Difficult to Cover established in 2005 and aims to contribute to a better linkage between labour migration and domestic labour needs.
3. Labour Market Data (cont d) Table 4 - Spain Catalogue of Occupations Difficult to Cover: Indicators Indicator Calculation Threshold Level of intensity in the labour market (IP) IP = (number of job offers/ number of contracts) IP province level > IP national Scarcity of candidates (IE) Level of difficulty to cover (ID) IE = (average amount of job candidates/ number of job offers) ID = (job placements/ average amount of job applications) Internal mobility (IM) IM = (workers entering + workers leaving) / (workers entering + workers leaving + workers remaining) IE province level < IE national ID province level > ID national IM province level < 0,30 Source: ILO (2009): Assessment of Data Sources and Methodology Development for Measuring Foreign Labour Requirements in the RF.
4. Main Labour Market Data Sources in Russian Federation (RF) 4. 1. Employers Applications Administrative form that requires employer to provide information about the firm, position to be filled, country of origin of needed MW, skill level and experience. The form has to be filled one year in advance in order to enter the quota allocation but it is not binding. Does not provide sufficient information about the need for foreign labour as interalia many employers requiring migrant workers do not participate
4. Main Labour Market Data Sources in RF (cont d) Within the migration quota setting for 2008, the authorized bodies had to process the applications from: 3,192 employers (demand for migrant workers 300,000) in the city of Moscow; 2,254 employers (180,000 migrants) in St. Petersburg; 130 employers (104,955 migrants) in the Moscow Region; 300 employers (28,160 migrants) in Maritime Territory; 279 employers (22,560 migrants) in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area. The quota for 2008 was 3.38 million (for 2009-3.98 million; for 2010-1.94 million)
4. Main Labour Market Data Sources in RF (cont d) 4. 2. Rostrud Register Network of 2445 offices Supply side (unemployed and job seekers) demand side (vacancies) information However many firms do not participate limited coverage On-line portal Jobs for All users can access data at a federal level (previously only at regional level) Using labour market data only from employers applications and Rostrud register lead to an underestimation of actual labour needs
Development of indicators in the RF to assess shortages on the basis of available data is being done in the framework of the ILO-EU CIS Labour Migration Governance Project by the Ministry of Health and Social Development, social partners and experts (national and international). 4. Main Labour Market Data Sources in RF (cont d) 4. 3. Labour Force Survey (LFS) Conducted quarterly by ROSSTAT it is mostly used to measure unemployment but also collects information on skills and occupational status. Sample of 70,000 persons. Occupation is classified according to ISCO88 upto 4 digits of detail.
The process of formation of migration quotas in RF Foreign labour demand Preparation of employers applications application Aggregation of employers applications aggregated documents Examination of aggregated by applications regional IAC Employers MHSD Authorized bodies Federal Interagency Commission MHSD Governor, Head of administration Approval of regional proposals approved applications Draft resolutions of the RF Government Drafting of laws and regulations approved regional proposals Examination of regional proposals by Federal IAC aggregated documents Aggregation of regional proposals regional proposals
Distribution of foreign labour by occupation Occupation Manual workers 168 Bricklayers 104 Plasterers 71 Concrete workers 59 Carpenters 50 House painters 48 Car drivers 39 Vegetable farm workers 38 Steel fixers 32 Loaders 29 Number of Foreign Workers, thous. Managers 27 Source: Data from the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development (employers applications for foreign labour for 2008)
Distribution of foreign labour by occupation (cont d) Occupation Assemblers 24 Tillers 19 Commercial agents 17 Electrical/gas welders 12 Sales managers 12 Cooks 12 Cleaners of production and office premises Steel and concrete structure erectors Number of Foreign Workers, thous. 10 10 Salesmen 10 Roadworkers 9 Sweepers 9 Source: Data from the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development (employers applications for foreign labour for 2008)
Distribution of foreign labour by occupation (cont d) Occupation Maintenance technicians 8 Steel fixers 8 Engineers 8 Plumbers 7 Sewers 7 Joiners 7 Street cleaners 7 Maintenance workers 6 Number of Foreign Workers, thous. Source: Data from the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development (employers applications for foreign labour for 2008)
6. Application in Countries of Origin Market research units that assess overseas employment opportunities in order to support planning and promotion (the Philippines and Sri Lanka) Reintegration of returnees and mobilization of skills in shortage occupations from the diaspora (Armenia and Tajikistan conceived and supported in the framework of the ILO-EU CIS Labour Migration Governance Project)
Thank you!