2 Structure Comparing Political Activism: Voter turnout I. Overview Core questions and theoretical framework Cultural modernization v. institutional context Implications? II. III. Evidence Turnout trends 1945-2000 in 191 nations Conclusions: What best explains turnout? 3 4 Resource: www.idea.int Why important? Robert Dahl On Democracy Two core components of democracy: contestation and participation Contestation by itself can mean competitive oligarchies/elites Widespread participation is a necessary but not sufficient condition of representative democracy. Sorensen s definition of democracy: A highly inclusive level of political participation in the selection of leaders and policies, at least through regular and fair elections, such that no major (adult) social group is excluded. Meaningful and extensive competition among individuals and groups (especially parties) for all portions of government power, at regular intervals A level of civil and political liberties - freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom to form and join organizations Source: Georg Sorensen Democracy & Democratization (1993). 5 6 Explanations 1. Cultural Modernization - Inglehalt and Dalton Participation is product of resources (time, money, skills) and orientations (efficacy/competence, duty, interest, trust) and connections (networks) New style of citizen politics emerging in affluent societies Rising human capital Education/literacy, media information, & cognitive skills Changing cultural attitudes Decline in deferential loyalties towards authority Growing civic skills and organizational capacities Direct action, new social movements, issue and identity politics Generational process Simple administrative fixes (eg motor-voter ) will fail to alter habits of the heart Explanations 2. Rational choice institutionalism Anthony Downs Rules matter for costs and benefits of participation Potential benefits v. costs (mechanical and psychological) Eg turnout influenced by frequency of elections, level of office, use of compulsory voting, registration hurdles, suffrage qualifications, closeness of outcome, party system, electoral system Strategic calculations by parties and candidates Get-out-the-vote drives, patterns of party competition Strategic calculations by citizens Time/effort v. rewards Anticipated benefits/impact of action Reforms alter calculus of costs and benefits Registration processes eg election day, rolling register Special voting procedures eg all-postal ballots Distribution of polling facilities eg malls Length of polling periods eg weekends Remote voting eg Internet 1
8 Measures Evidence: Voter turnout Valid votes cast / registered electorate (Vote/REG) Valid votes cast/voting age population () Figure 7.1 Votes cast as a proportion of the voting age population, 30 40 90 Ic e la n d 88 Israel Sw eden Czech Rep B e lg iu m Denmark C h ile A u s tr a lia 81 New Zealand Korea, Rep 79 Spain 79 Romania 78 Slovenia Portugal Norw ay Netherlands 75 Germany 73 T aiw a n 72 Ukraine 72 Ukraine 67 Lithuania 66 Belarus 64 Russia 63 Peru 62 Japan 61 Canada Mexico 59 Hungary 58 Thailand 58 Poland 57 US 47 Sw itzerland 38 Note: Mean is measured as the number of valid votes as a proportion of the Voting Age Population in parliamentary elections during the held in the 32 nations in the CSES dataset under comparison. Source: International IDEA database Voter Turnout from 1945 to 2000. www.idea.int Turnout Means 10 84.8 to 96.7 (16) 77.3 to 84.8 (28) 71.3 to 77.3 (20) 63.9 to 71.3 (23) 56 to 63.9 (32) 41.4 to 56 (22) 12.5 to 41.4 (18) 0 to 12.5 (23) Australia Austria Belgium Canada Cyprus Denmark Postindustrial Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland High development Israel Italy Japan Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Type of Society Vote e/vap Norway NZ Portugal Singapore Spain Sweden Mean 40 30 1940s 19s 19s 19s 19s Postindustrial High development Medium developmen Low development Switzerland UK USA 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 Decade Decade Decade % 1945-2000 2
%.0 0 30.0 10.0 US Turnout US Turnout 1932-2000 (Presidential ) 0.0 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 19 1964 1968 1972 19 19 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Source: U.S.Census Bureau 1932-1996. Figure 3.2: U.S. Turnout, 1932-2000 Source: US Census Bureau 1932-1996 13 Antigua Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dom. Rep Dominica Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Honduras India Jamaica Liechtenstein Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Sri Lanka St. Kitts St. Vincent Thailand Trinidad Turkey Uruguay Venezuela % 1945-2000 4 5 6 7 8 9 Decade 16 Analytical Model ---- Macro-level ---- Meso-level Micro-level Impact of political institutions Societal Modernization i Levels of human development Political Institutions E.g. electoral laws, party systems Mobilizing Agencies E.g. unions, parties, churches Resources Political Activism How would you assess the relative importance of each of these factors? Motivation 17 18 Explaining turnout All national elections in 139 nations, Compulsory registration Model A: Socioeconomic Development Model B: Development + Institutions b (s.e.) Beta Sig. b (s.e.) Beta Sig. 45.675 (5.2).7 (12.635) Constant DEVELOPMENT Human Development 0.035 (.006).314 0.021 (.007).190 Level of Democratization 0.954 (.329).162 0.9 (.329).143 POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS Electoral System (Maj (1), PR (3)) 2.652 (1.025).130 Mean population per MP -.0009 (.000) -.095 Frequency of national elections -3.471 (.557) -.337 Predom. party system (1=yes) -3.977 (2.467) -.0 Frag. party system (1=yes) -6.228 (3.6) -.0 Presidential (1)/Parliamentary (0) 4.541 (1.7).115 LEGAL RULES Age of voting eligibility -.991 (.620) -.0 Length of women s suffrage.191 (.052).192 Use of compulsory voting 1.964 (2.106).043 Literacy requirements -20.686 (6.173) -.146 Number of elections 405 405 Adjusted R2.1 (16.7).294 (15.5) Note: is measured as the number of valid votes as a proportion of the Voting Age Population in 405 parliamentary and presidential national elections held in 139 nations during the. 3
19 20 Voter registration USA Electoral systems Table 7.2: Electoral systems and turnout, worldwide Type of Electoral System Mean Mean Vote/Reg N. MAJORITARIAN Alternative Vote 65.5 92.9 2 2 nd Ballot 58.5 65.0 21 First-Past-The-Post 61.2 67.7 43 Single Non-Transferable Vote 52.6 59.8 2 Block Vote 56.5.9 9 All majoritarian.4 68.3 77 COMBINED Combined-Dependent 66.6 71.9 7 Combined-Independent 63.5 69.0 19 All combined 64.0.4 26 PROPORTIONAL List PR.0 74.7 59 Single Transferable Vote.4 81.7 2 All PR Systems.0 74.6 68 65.0.8 164 All Notes: Mean is measured as the number of valid votes as a proportion of the Voting Age Population in all nations worldwide that held parliamentary elections during the. Mean Vote/Reg is measured as the number of valid votes as a proportion of the registered electorate in all nations worldwide that held parliamentary elections during the. N. Number of nations Source: Calculated from International IDEA database Voter Turnout from 1945 to 2000. www.idea.int. Compulsory Voting Table 4.4 21 Party Competition 22 Mean Mean Vote/Reg N. of Nations Older democracies Compulsory 79.4 86.9 7 Non-Compulsory 71.7 72.7 32 90 Difference +7.7 +14.2 39 Newer democracies Compulsory 67.7 75.8 9 Non-Compulsory 69.3 73.9 31 Mean Vote/Reg Difference -1.6 +1.9 40 Semi-democracies Compulsory 53.9.6 5 Non-Compulsory 56.6 67.0 40 Difference -2.7-6.4 45 out % Turno Mean Non-democracies Compulsory 40.9.6 2 Non-Compulsory 61.8 67.8 38 Difference -20.9 +2.8 40 All Compulsory 65.9 75.4 23 Non-Compulsory 64.2.0 140 Difference +1.9 +5.4 163 Compulsory Voting: The following 23 nations were classified as currently using compulsory voting with the types of democracy shown in Appendix A: Older democracies: Australia, Belgium, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg. Newer Democracies: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Liechtenstein, Panama Canal Zone, Thailand, and Uruguay. Semi-democracies: Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, and Venezuela. L ess than 29.9% 30 to 39.9% 40 to 49.9% to 59.9% M ore than % % Vote Share Winning Party Non-democracies: Singapore and Egypt. Reported vote, 22 nations (ISSP 1996) DEVELOPMENT Human development 9.94 (2.243) Level of democratization.347 (.057) INSTITUTIONS 16.599 (2.329) 29.59 (2.6).555 (.0) 1.05 (.068) Electoral system -.017 (.158).148 (.036).212 (.040) Population per MP.000 (.000).000 (.000).000 (.000) Frequency of national elections -.006 (.053).095 (.055).363 (.062) Social structure, agency & culture Length of women s enfranchisement.009 (.002).004 (.002).003 (.002) Use of compulsory voting 2.23 (.149) 2.934 (.165) 2.23 (.166) Legal voting age -.342 (.062) -.5 (.066) -. (.071) Party system.447 (.439) -1.357 (.477) -2.96 (.517) STRUCTURE Age (Logged Years) 4.272 (.140) 3.96 (.151) Gender (Male=1).040 (.044) -.16 (.049) Education (7-pt scale).295 (.019).203 (.021) Income (Household income).000 (.000).000 (.000) AGENCY Union membership (1=member).559 (.064) Religiosity (6-pt scale of church attendance).056 (.015) Party affiliation (1=yes) 1.69 (.054) CULTURE Political interest (5 point scale).257 (.026) Internal political efficacy (10 point scale).077 (.014) Political trust (10 point scale).038 (.013) Constant -3.29-11.6-24.07 Nagelkerke R2.099.200.339 4
25 26 Age III: Conclusions 100 90 % Voted by Age Group 18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66-75 75+ Mixed trends since 1945 in electoral turnout, party membership and civic activism Evolution, transformation and reinvention of political activism Early stages of the modernization process are important for rising activism. From the politics of loyalties to the politics of choice? Next class: Inglehart Value Change 5