Studies in Central and Eastern Europe Edited for the International Council for Central and East European Studies by Roger E. Kanet, University of Miami, USA Titles include: Graeme Gill (editor) POLITICS IN THE RUSSIAN REGIONS Roger E. Kanet (editor) RUSSIA Re-Emerging Great Power Katlijn Malfliet, Lien Verpoest and Evgeny Vinokurov (editors) THE CIS, THE EU AND RUSSIA Challenges of Integration Stephen Velychenko (editor) UKRAINE, THE EU AND RUSSIA History, Culture and International Relations Forthcoming titles include: Rebecca Kay (editor) GENDER, EQUALITY AND DIFFERENCE DURING AND AFTER STATE SOCIALISM John Pickles (editor) GLOBALIZATION AND REGIONALIZATION IN POST-SOCIALIST ECONOMIES Common Economic Spaces of Europe John Pickles (editor) STATE AND SOCIETY IN POST-SOCIALIST ECONOMIES Stephen White (editor) MEDIA, CULTURE AND SOCIETY IN PUTIN'S RUSSIA Stephen White (editor) POLITICS AND THE RULING GROUP IN PUTIN'S RUSSIA Thomas Bremer (editor) RELIGION AND THE CONCEPTUAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Stephen Hutchings (editor) RUSSIA AND ITS OTHER(S) ON FILM Screening Intercultural Dialogue Joan DeBardeleben (editor) THE BOUNDARIES OF EU ENLARGEMENT Finding a Place for Neighbours Stanislav J. Kirschbaum (editor) THE MEANING OF EUROPE, CENTRAL EUROPE AND THE EU Studies in Central and Eastern Europe Series Standing Order ISBN 978-0-230-51682-3 (outside North America only) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBN quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England
Russia Re-Emerging Great Power Edited by Roger E. Kanet Department of International Studies University of Miami, USA palgrave macmillan
* Editorial matter, selection, introduction and conclusion Roger E. Kanet 2007 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-0-230-54304-1 All remaining chapters respective authors 2007 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WlT 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin's Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-36054-3 DOI 10.1057/9780230590489 ISBN 978-0-230-59048-9 (ebook) This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 16 15 14 13 12 11 432 1 10 09 08 07 Transferred to Digital Printing 2008
Contents Preface Preface by General Editor Contributors vii viii x Introduction: The Consolidation of Russia's Role in World Affairs 1 Roger E. Kanet Part I: Russian Strategy Under Putin 1 Russia's Great Power Ambitions and Policy Under Putin 13 Ingmar Oldberg 2 Forming a New Security Identity Under Vladimir Putin 31 Nikita A. Lomagin 3 Choices for Russia: Preserving Inherited Geopolitics Through Emergent Global and European Realities 54 Vladimir Rukavishnikov Part II: Russia, the CIS, and the World Beyond 4 Russia's Transdniestria Policy: Means, Ends and Great Power Trajectories 81 Graeme P. Herd 5 Putin's Attempts to Subjugate Georgia: From Sabre-Rattling to the Power of the Purse 107 Bertil Nygren 6 Governance and Diplomacy as Attributes of a Great Power: Russia and the Three Enclaves - Kaliningrad, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan 124 Susanne Nies 7 Russia and China in the New Central Asia: The Security Agenda 152 John Berryman v
vi Contents 8 The US Challenge to Russian Influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus 173 Roger E. Kanet and Larisa Homarac 9 Russia, Iran and the Nuclear Question: The Putin Record 195 Robert O. Freedman Conclusion: Russia as a Re-Emerging Great Power Roger E. Kanet Index 222 225
Preface The editor wishes to express to the authors of the chapters that appear in this volume, first, for the quality of the chapters that they have produced; and second, for the dispatch and cooperation that they demonstrated in carrying out the several revisions of the original drafts. The editor wishes to thank the anonymous readers of the Original draft of the book, whose trenchant comments resulted in changes that have, we believe, strengthened its overall cohesion and the effectiveness of its argument. Finally, on behalf of all the contributors, the editor wishes to thank others who contributed to the collective effort that this volume represents - especially others who commented on various versions of the individual chapters and the editorial and production staff of Palgrave Macmillan. Roger E. Kanet Miami, Florida vii
Preface by General Editor When the International Council for Central and East European Studies (ICCEES) was founded at the first international and multidisciplinary conference of scholars working in this field, held in Banff, Alberta, Canada, on 4-7 September 1974, it was given the name International Committee for Soviet and East European Studies (ICSEES). Its major purpose was to provide for greater exchange between research centres and scholars around the world who were devoted to the study of the USSR and the communist states and societies of Eastern Europe. These developments were the main motivation for bringing together the very different national organizations in the field and for forming a permanent committee of their representatives, which would serve as an umbrella organization, as well as a promoter of closer co-operation. Four national scholarly associations launched ICSEES at the Banff conference: the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS), the National Association for Soviet and East European Studies in Great Britain (NASEES), the British Universities Association of Slavists (BUAS), and the Canadian Association of Slavists (CAS). Over the past three decades six additional Congresses have been held: in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, 1980; Washington, USA, 1985; Harrogate, UK, 1990; Warsaw, Poland, 1995; Tampere, Finland, 2000; and Berlin, Germany, 2005. The next Congress is scheduled for 2010 in Stockholm, Sweden. The Original four national associations that sponsored the first congress have been joined by an additional seventeen full and six associate member associations, with significantly more than a thousand scholars participating at each of the recent congresses. It is now a little over three decades since scholars felt the need to coordinate the efforts in the 'free world' to describe and analyse the Communist political systems, their societies and economies, and East West relations in particular. Halfway through this period, the Communist system collapsed, the region that was the object of study was reorganized, and many of the new states that emerged set out on a path of democratic development, economic growth, and, in many cases, inclusion in Western institutions. The process turned out to be complex, and there were setbacks. Yet, by 2004, the European Union as well as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had welcomed those post-communist states that had met all of the requirements for membership. Not all of the viii
Preface by General Editor ix applicant states achieved this objective; but the process is ongoing. For this reason, perhaps even more than before, the region that encompassed the former Communist world demands study, explanation, and analysis, as both centripetal and centrifugal forces are at work in each state and across the region. We are most fortunate that the community of scholars addressing these issues now includes many astute analysts from the region itself. Roger E. Kanet
Contributors John Berryman is Lecturer in International Relations, Birkbeck, University of London. He was previously Head of the Division of European and International Studies and a member of the Russian and East European Research Centre at the University of Wolverhampton. His recent publications include 'Putin's International Security Priorities', in Roger E. Kanet (ed.), The New Security Environment: The Impact on Russia, Central and Eastern Europe (2005). He is a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Royal Institute of International Mfairs. Robert O. Freedman is Peggy Meyerhoff Pearlstone Professor of Political Science and President Emeritus at Baltimore Hebrew University, and Visiting Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University. He is the author of four books on Soviet foreign policy, including Soviet Policy toward the Middle East Since 1970 now in is third edition. A past president of the Association for Israel Studies, Dr Freedman is currently completing a book on Russian foreign policy toward the Middle East since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Graeme P. Herd is a resident Faculty Member at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), and Associate Fellow, 'International Security Programme', Chatham House, London. During 2002-05, he was Professor of Civil-Military Relations and Faculty Director of Research at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. His latest books include Soft Security Threats and European Security (2005), co-edited with Anne Aldis and Divided West: European Security and Transatlantic Relations (2006), co-authored with Tuomas Forsberg. Larisa Homarac is a graduate student in the Department of International Studies of the University of Miami. She holds a BA from the University of Missouri at Kansas City with majors in Piano Performance, Spanish and German. She worked as a Serbo-Croatian linguist for KFOR in Kosovo during 2004-05. Roger E. Kanet is Professor in the Department of International Studies of the University of Miami, where he served as Dean of the School of International Studies 1997-2000. Prior to 1997, he taught at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he was a member of the x
Contributors xi Department of Political Science and served as Head of that Department, 1984-87, and as Associate Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs and Director of International Programs and Studies (1989-97). He has published more than two hundred scholarly articles and edited more than twenty books. Publications include the edited volumes: with Edward A. Kolodziej; u.s. Power and Global Hegemon", in press and The New Security Environment: The Impact on Russia, Central and Eastern Europe (200S). He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, New York. Nikita A. Lomagin is Associate Professor in the School of Economics, St. Petersburg State University and the European University at St Petersburg. From 1994 to 1999, he served as associate dean in the School of International Realtions, and Director of the NIS Studies Center at St. Petersburg State Univeristy; since 1999 he has been Researcher in the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. His most recent publications include Leningrad v blokade (200S) and Neivestnaja blokada (2002). Susanne Nies is Research Director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) in Paris, France, and professor at the Institute for Administration and Management (IPAG), in Paris. She has held appointments at CERI, Paris (2000-2002) and the Free University, Berlin (2000-2002). Her recent publications include articles in IRIS-DaIloz Annee strategique 2007 (2006); Revue internationale et strategique (2006) and Revue politique et parlementaire, No. 1036 (200S). BertH Nygren is Associate professor of political science at the Swedish National Defence College and at the Department of Political Science, Stockholm University. He has held various administrative positions at Stockholm University, including Head of Department and Deputy Head of Department 1994-2001. He has edited anthologies and published chapters primarily on Russian politics, especially foreign policy. Ingmar Oldberg is Associate Director of Research at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) and a member of a team writing biannual reports on Russian developments for the parliamentary Swedish Defence Commission. He has written and edited many books and reports on Russian foreign policy, specifically toward Western Europe and CIS neighbours, as well as on Russian regions, for instance Kaliningrad. His most recent publications include Reluctant Rapprochement: Russia and the Baltic States in the Context of NATO and EU Enlargements (2003), and Membership and Partnership: The Relations of Russia and Its Neighbours with NATO and the EU in the Enlargement Context (2004).
xii Contributors Vladimir Olegovich Rukavishnikov is Professor at the Department of Global Politics and International Relations of the State University Higher School of Economics in Miscow, Russia since 2003. Prior to 2003, he served as Head of Department of the Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Rukavishnikov has published (in Russian and other languages) more than two hundred scholarly articles, essays and papers, authored and edited over fifteen books. His recent books include Cholodnaya Voina, Cholodnyi Mir (Cold War, Cold Peace, 2005).