INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS & FORECAST DAN MISHELL Director of Research Visit California
GLOBAL TRAVEL TRENDS
UNWTO 2030 FORECAST GLOBAL TOURISM 1 Billion arrivals in 2012 43 million new travelers per year to reach 1.8 billion arrivals by 2030 ARRIVALS GROWTH BY YEAR Source: UNWTO
UNWTO 2030 FORECAST GLOBAL OUTBOUND OUTBOUND GROWTH Growth driven by Eastern Europe Source: UNWTO
RISE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS New "Middle-Class" Households 2013-23 millions China 75 mn India 9 mn Indonesia 7 mn Malaysia 2 mn Thailand 1 mn 0 5 10 15 20 Source: Tourism Economics
UNWTO 2030 FORECAST GLOBAL INBOUND SHARE
U.S. TRAVEL TRENDS
U.S. TOP MARKETS, 2012 Average spend per trip Domestic $360 International $1,880 Volume Spending (millions) (billions of $) 1. Canada 22.70 $20.65 2. Mexico 14.51 $7.01 3. United Kingdom 3.76 $9.49 4. Japan 3.70 $11.31 5. Germany 1.88 $5.36 6. Brazil 1.79 $6.50 7. China 1.47 $6.49 8. France 1.46 $4.08 9. South Korea 1.25 $4.02 10. Australia 1.12 $4.68 11. Italy 0.83 $2.78 12. India 0.72 $3.37 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL MARKET TRENDS, 2000-2012 2012 Record Travel 67 million international 29.8 million overseas $126 billion international spending 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 International Visitation to the U.S., 2000-2012 Canada Overseas Mexico Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.
U.S. MARKET TRENDS 2000-2012 European Travel to the U.S., 2000-2012 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - U.K. Germany France Italy Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.
U.S. MARKET TRENDS 2000-2012 Asia Pacific Travel to U.S., 2000-2012 3,000,000 6,000,000 2,500,000 5,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 RH axis 4,000,000 3,000,000 Australia S. Korea 1,000,000 LH axis 2,000,000 Japan 500,000 1,000,000 - - Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.
U.S. MARKET TRENDS 2000-2012 Emerging Markets Travel to U.S., 2000-2012 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - Brazil China (PRC) India Russia Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.
FORECASTED ARRIVALS TO U.S. SLOWING GROWTH International Overseas 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 6.4% 6.7% 3.4% 5.8% 4.0% 5.3% 2012 2013* 2014* *Forecasts as of October 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
FORECASTS FOR KEY INBOUND MARKETS TO U.S., 2018/2012 250 200 Countries in order of projected arrivals to U.S. in 2018 Percent Change 2018/2012 150 100 50 0 Canada Mexico China UK Japan Brazil German y Korea France Australi a Arrivals 19.4 9.3 214.7 14.7 10.4 69.4 10.4 40.5 13.1 32.1 24.5 Total *Forecasts as of October 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
POTENTIAL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVELER SPENDING US Visitor Spending Compared 2006=100 350 300 250 International Traveler Spend 200 150 100 Domestic Traveler Spend 50 2006 2010 2014 2018 Source: Tourism Economics
CALIFORNIA AND SAN FRANCISCO TRENDS
CALIFORNIA DOMESTIC VS. INTERNATIONAL (2012) 230 million person-trips $106.4 billion in spending 6% 19% 94% 81% Source: DK Shifflet & Associates, U.S. Department of Commerce, CIC Research Inc., Dean Runyan Associates
TOP MARKETS 2012 CALIFORNIA VS. U.S. U.S. California Share of U.S. Canada Mexico 48.1% Mexico Canada 6.8% UK China (PRC) 45.5% Japan UK 16.9% Germany Australia 46.5% Brazil Japan 15.1% China (PRC) Germany 21.3% France S. Korea 31.0% S. Korea France 25.6% Australia Brazil 11.0% Italy India 25.0% India Italy 19.7% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.
CALIFORNIA TOP MARKETS SPEND PER TRIP Mexico Air Canada China UK Japan Australia Germany S. Korea France Brazil India Italy California Avg. Spend/Trip Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.; Tourism Economics
INTERNATIONAL VISITATION TO CALIFORNIA 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.; BEA; Tourism Economics
INTERNATIONAL VISITATION TO CALIFORNIA 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.; BEA; Tourism Economics
CHINESE VISITORS TO U.S. AND CALIFORNIA, 2000-2012 U.S. 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Chinese Travelers to the U.S. and California 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - California US CA Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.
BRAZIL AND INDIA VISITORS CALIFORNIA, 2000-2012 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% California's Brazil and India Visitors and Share of U.S. Travel 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 India Brazil India US Share Brazil US Share Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS 2012 SF VS. CA California San Francisco Share of CA China (PRC) U.K. 51.5% UK China (PRC) 36.5% Australia Germany 60.2% Japan France 61.4% Germany Australia 42.3% S. Korea S. Korea 43.6% France Japan 25.8% Brazil Italy 55.5% India India 43.6% Italy Netherlands 64.5% Taiwan Brazil 38.1% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.
TOP 5 MOTIVATING ATTRACTIONS ü Brand Mature Growth US CA UK AU JP FR DE KR MX CN BR San Francisco ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Disneyland ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Hollywood ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Los Angeles ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Beaches ü ü ü ü ü ü Yosemite/Half Dome ü ü ü ü ü Napa Valley/Wineries ü ü ü Universal Studios Hollywood ü ü California Redwoods ü ü ü ü = Ranked Top 5 = Tie Blue = Northern CA Green = Southern CA Highway 1/California Coastline Golden Gate Bridge ü ü Death Valley/Deserts ü ü San Diego ü Beverly Hills ü Source: Hall & Partners
CALIFORNIA AIR SERVICE (AUGUST 2013) 160,000 140,000 120,000 Overseas Non-Stop Seats to California, August 2013 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Other LAX SFO 20,000 0 Source: OAG
CALIFORNIA OCTOBER TRAVEL FORECAST INTERNATIONAL CA International Inbound Travel Annual % change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% US California -8% -10% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F 16F Source: Tourism Economics
CALIFORNIA OCTOBER TRAVEL FORECAST INTERNATIONAL Projected international leisure visits by market Average annual growth, 2013-2016 China India South America South Korea Japan Australia Germany Canada Mexico United Kingdom France Scandanavia Source: Tourism Economics 0 3 6 9 12 15 18
CALIFORNIA OCTOBER TRAVEL FORECAST SPENDING Expenditures Will Outpace Visitors Index, 2007 = 100 170 160 150 Domestic International 140 130 120 Solid lines = visitors Dashed lines = expenditures 110 100 90 80 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F 16F Source: Tourism Economics
VISIT CALIFORNIA OCTOBER FORECAST industry.visitcalifornia.com/research DAN MISHELL Director of Research Visit California