Political Environment and Congressional Breakdown Charts October 17, 217
Presidential Job Approval: Gallup Polling Gallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 6 Approve Disapprove Trump 216 Win Percentage (46.1%) 57% Disapprove 5 4 37% Approve 3 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 Aug 21-27 Aug 28-Sep 3 Sep 4-1 Sep 11-17 Sep 18-24 Sep 25-Oct 1 Oct 2-8 Oct 9-15 Net (% Approval - % Disapproval) -12.5-2% Net -25 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 Aug 21-27 Aug 28-Sep 3 Sep 4-1 Sep 11-17 Sep 18-24 Sep 25-Oct 1 Oct 2-8 Oct 9-15 Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, October 16, 217
Gallup Presidential Job Approval by Party Gallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Republicans Independents Democrats 1 8 79% Republican Approval 6 4 % Independent Approval 2 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 Aug 21-27 Aug 28-Sep 3 Sep 4-1 Sep 11-17 Sep 18-24 Sep 25-Oct 1 Oct 2-8 Oct 9-15 8% Democratic Approval Zoom on Independents 42 35 % Independent Approval 28 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 Aug 21-27 Aug 28-Sep 3 Sep 4-1 Sep 11-17 Sep 18-24 Sep 25-Oct 1 Oct 2-8 Oct 9-15 Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, October 16, 217
Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to Watch Our Favorite Polls Fox News September 24-26, 217 1,17 Registed Voters NBC/WSJ September 14-18, 217 9 Adults 95 Strongly Approve Somewhat Disapprove Somewhat Approve Strongly Disapprove 9 Very Positive Somewhat Negative Somewhat Positive Very Negative 45% 53% Disapprove 39% 49% Negative 47.5 8% 45 1% 17% 26% 42% Approve 16% 23% 39% Positive Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 CNN [NEW] October 12-17, 217 1,1 Adults ABC-Washington Post September 18-21, 217 1,2 Adults 98 Approve Strongly Disapprove Moderately Approve Moderately Disapprove Strongly 98 Approve Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly 73.5 47% 56% Disapprove 48% 57% Disapprove 49 9% 49 9% 24.5 12% 25% 37% Approve 13% 26% 39% Approve Jan-17 Mar-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-21
Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to Watch More Topline Approval Numbers Real Clear Politics Average 9/24-1/16 APPROVE DISAPPROVE SPREAD 38.8 55.5-17. Quinnipiac University [NEW] October 5-1, 217 1,482 Registerd Voters Pew Research August 8-21, 217 4,971 Adults PBS/Marist September 25-27, 217 886 Registered Voters CBS News September 21-24, 217 1,22 Adults c+36+57 38% 56% Approve -18 c+36+63 36% 63% Approve -27 c+39+54 39% 54% Approve -15 c+35+55 35% 55% Approve -2
Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1966 Senate and House Current Trump Approval 37% Gallup October 9-15, 217 House Seats Job Approval Avg. Change House Avg. Change Senate Over 6% +3 Seats -2 Seats 5%-6% -12 Seats - 1 Seat Under 5% -4 Seats - 5 Seats Presidential Approval 7 49% 57% 47% 52% 43% 63% 58% 46% 66% 63% 39% 45% 42% 5 8-12 -15-5 -8-13 -26-3 -48-48 -54-7 1966 197 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 26 21 214-63 Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, October 16, 217
Direction of the Country NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Right Direction/Wrong Track Polling All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track? 1% 75% Right Direction Undecided Wrong Track 59% Off on the wrong track 5% 25% % % Jan 212 Apr 212 Jun 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Nov 212 Jan 213 Apr 213 Jul 213 Oct 213 Dec 213 Mar 214 Jun 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Dec 214 March 215 June 215 Sept 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 June 216 Aug 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Headed in the right direction Net (% Right Direction - % Wrong Direction) -25-25% Net -5-75 Jan 212 Apr 212 Jun 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Nov 212 Jan 213 Apr 213 Jul 213 Oct 213 Dec 213 Mar 214 Jun 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Dec 214 March 215 June 215 Sept 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 June 216 Aug 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Hart Research Associates (D) Public Opinion Stratagies (R) NBC/WSJ, April 17-2, 217
Party Identification Gallup Polling: Party Affiliation 25 5 75 1 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 28 26 26 25 28 27 27 28 28 3 32 32 3 28 3 3 3 41 42 43 42 4 4 38 37 35 39 36 35 35 38 37 37 36 39 38 38 37 36 3 36 32 32 35 35 36 Democrat Independent Republican 28% Republicans 41% Independents % Democrats -1-7.5-5 -2.5 2.5 5 7.5 1 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-5 -2-2 2-5 -5-2 -1-4 -5-5 -6-4 -1 1 1-4 -5-8 -7-2 -4-3 -6-4 -3-1 Net (% Republican - % Democrat) -1% Net
Party Favorable/Unfavorable Democratic % Favorable Republican % Favorable *NBC asks Positive/Negative NBC/WSJ* August 5-9, 217 1,2 Adults Pew June 8-18, 217 2,54 Adults CNN September 17-2, 217 1,56 Adults FOX Jan 15-18, 217 1,52 Adults Bloomberg/Selzer Dec 2 - Dec 5, 216 999 Adults c++ % % Democrats +5 c+44+4 44% 4% Democrats +4 c+41+ 41% % Democrats +12 c+47+41 47% 41% Democrats +6 c+42+44 42% 44% Republicans +2
The Economy: Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment I. Last six years (21 Present) 125 1 75 Conference Board Consumer Confidence University of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment 119.8 Consumer Confidence 95.1 Consumer Sentiment 5 25 Jan '1 Mar '1 May '1 July '1 Sept '1 Nov '1 Jan '11 Mar '11 May '11 July '11 Sept '11 Nov '11 Jan '12 Mar '12 May '12 July '12 Sept '12 Nov '12 Jan '13 Mar '13 May '13 July '13 Sept '13 Nov '13 Jan '14 Mar '14 May '14 July '14 Sept '14 Nov '14 Jan '15 Mar '15 May '15 Sept '15 Nov '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 July '16 Sept '16 Nov '16 Jan '17 Mar '17 May '17 July '17 Sept 17 II. 198 Present 16 125 9 55 2 Jan '8 Oct '8 July '81 Apr '82 Jan '83 Oct '83 July '84 Apr '85 Jan '86 Oct '86 July '87 Apr '88 Jan '89 Oct '89 July '9 Apr '91 Jan '92 Oct '92 July '93 Apr '94 Jan '95 Oct '95 July '96 Apr '97 Jan '98 Oct '98 July '99 Apr ' Jan '1 Oct '1 July '2 Apr '3 Jan '4 Oct '4 July '5 Apr '6 Jan '7 Oct '7 July '8 Apr '9 Jan '1 Oct '1 July '11 Apr '12 Jan '13 Oct '13 July '14 July '15 June '16 Mar '17 Consumer Confidence Survey September 217 Consumer Sentiment September 217
Obamacare: Tracking Public Attitudes The Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 21. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it? (Rotated - Participants then asked to choose between very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable) Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don t know/refused Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable 1 75 44% Negative 5 25 46% Positive 3/13 6/13 9/13 11/13 1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 1/14 12/14 3/15 6/9/15 8/15 1/15 12/15 2/16 4/16 7/16 9/16 11/16 2/17 4/17 5/17 7/17 9/17 Net (% Positive - % Negative) 1 +2% Net -1-2 3/13 6/13 9/13 11/13 1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 1/14 12/14 3/15 6/9/15 8/15 1/15 12/15 2/16 4/16 7/16 9/16 11/16 2/17 4/17 5/17 7/17 9/17 Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: September 217
What it Takes: 218 Senate Math Can Democrats take the Senate Majority in 218? Current Senate Breakdown by Party Democrats Republicans 48 52 Two Independents - King (ME) and Sanders (VT) caucus with the Democrats 1 Cook Political Report Senate Math for 218 23 12 6 4 5 2 5 43 Democrat-Held Seats Not on Ballot Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican Republican Held Seats Not on Ballot 1 Bottom Line: Democrats need at least three seats to take the Senate. To do that they need to hold all 25 of their seats up for reelection, win both Republican-held seat in Toss Up and win one off the Republican-held seats in Likely R. Last Ratings Change: September, 217
What it Takes: 218 House Math Can Democrats take the House in 218? Current House Breakdown by Party Democrats Republicans 194 239 Two Republican Vacancies in UT-4 and PA-18 18.75 217.5 326.25 435 Cook Political Report House Math for 218 174 11 7 15 23 25 18 Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican 435 Bottom Line: Democrats need at least 24 seats. To do that they need win all seats in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic columns. They also need to win all 15 seats in Toss Up and 11 of the 23 seats in Lean Republican. Last Ratings Change: October 13, 217