Armenia National Voter Study May 2006 International Republican Institute, Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization, Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development 1
INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This national representative survey was carried out from April 30 to May 7, 2006. 1200 Armenian residents (voters) aged 18 years and over were interviewed face-to-face. The margin of error does not exceed 3%. The survey was carried out on behalf of IRI. It was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by The Gallup Organization (Dr. R.Alisauskiene). The fieldwork was carried out by Armenian Sociological Association (ASA). 2
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY 3
Mood of the country: 55% of Armenians think that the country is on the wrong track while 32% think the country is going in the right direction. Do you think that things in Armenia are going in the... Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer 32 55 13 0 20 40 60 80 100 4
Mood of the Country: 42% of Armenians see improvement in the country s economy while 23% think it is declining Over the last 3 months, the economic situation in Armenia has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer 4 38 33 13 10 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 5
Mood of the country: 23% of Armenians say their household s financial situation has improved while 28% say it has declined Over the last 3 months, the financial situation of your household has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer 2 21 48 17 11 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 6
Mood of the country: 37% of Armenians are satisfied with the development of democracy while 58% are not How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA 3 34 24 34 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 7
Mood of the country: Overall majority of Armenians think that it will take a long time for things to get better in the country Do you believe that things will get better in a short time or it will take a long time to get better in the country? Short time Long time Not sure/refused 13 79 8 0 20 40 60 80 100 8
Mood of the Country: Expectations 100 90 80 70 3 5 6 24 6 No answer Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future 60 50 Apathy 40 30 40 Not much hope for the future Hope that the future will be somewhat better 20 10 16 Believe that the future will be definitely better 0 9
Mood of the Country Optimism Neutral Pessimism 56 30 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 10
Attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia over the last year became: 60 57 50 40 30 24 20 17 10 0 2 More optimistic Stayed the same More pessimistic DK/NA 11
ISSUES 12
Most important issues Armenia is facing (%) Unemployment Problem of Nagorno Karabakh Social-economic situation Development of the economy, industry Corruption Democracy, respect of human rights Migration Foreign policy Recognition of genocide Other DK/NA 6 5 3 3 6 2 4 2 5 6 8 17 14 12 13 11 25 26 26 31 43 First mention All mentions 13
Most important issue towns/villages in Armenia are facing (%) Unemployment Development of economy/industry/agriculture Housing, communal services Sanitation Transport, road conditions Low salaries, pensions Illegal construction Ecology Corruption Other DK/NA 12 18 10 16 9 14 8 17 8 13 6 10 5 7 4 6 8 15 9 22 32 First mention All mentions 14
Most important issue households in Armenia are facing (%) Social-economic situation 42 52 Unemployment 21 28 Housing, communal services 7 14 Education 4 7 Healthcare Low incomes Other 3 3 6 6 9 14 First mention All mentions DK/NA 8 8 15
Issues On the personal/household level, social issues are most pressing. On the community level, unemployment is the most important problem. On the national level, social problems and territorial integrity/security issues are most important. 16
Fear the Most (%) Nagorno-Karabakh 52 58 Slow development of economy 7 16 Migration 7 13 Unemployment 4 7 Social-economic situation 3 7 Natural disasters 2 4 Corruption 1 4 First mention None 1 All mentions Other 9 17 DK/NA 14 14 17
Fears of the People The biggest fears are related to instability/security: (territorial integrity of the country, war) and social instability (unemployment, economic problems). 18
POLITICS 19
Interest in Politics (%) Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA May 2006 35 27 37 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 20
What is the primary thing the Armenian government should do to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? (%) To fulfill promises Create jobs Increase salaries, pensions Develop economy To carry out fair elections To fight corruption To return deposits To improve sanitary conditions Other DK/NA 3 1 2 14 10 7 9 6 13 5 5 9 9 24 23 23 23 36 39 First mentioned All mentioned 21
Do you plan to vote in the next Parliamentary elections? Definitely no 10% Have not decided yet 8% DK/NA 1% Definitely yes 45% Probably no 9% Probably yes 27% 22
Why do you plan to vote? (N=860, planning to vote, %) 70 60 61 50 40 30 20 18 10 9 5 4 3 0 It's my duty I care about Party / candidate I care about a particular issue I enjoy voting on an election day Not to give a chance for fraud Other 23
Why do you plan not to vote? (N=228, not planning to vote, % ) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 30 35 20 10 0 14 I am not interested in politics My vote does not change anything I do not believe that elections will be fair 3 I don t have time to go to the polls 12 I don't like any party or candidate 1 1 I don't have enough information about parties and candidates Other 4 DK/NA 24
Characteristics/Attributes Most Important in Parliamentary Candidate (%) Caring, kind 34 47 Honest 21 32 Educated 14 24 Democratic 8 10 Moral, modest 5 10 Professional Hard-working 3 5 8 8 First mention All mentions Other 2 3 DK/NA 10 11 25
When considering which party to vote for, what is more important? None 5% No answer 4% The Party is more important 32% The Leader is more important 59% 26
All other things being equal, who would you vote for? Does not matter 10% No answer 3% More active, younger candidate 32% More experienced, older candidate 55% 27
All other things being equal, who would you vote for? Does not matter 29% No answer 3% Female 7% Male 61% 28
Most liked features of Armenian politicians or parties (%) Determination, consistency 18 Truthworthiness, objectivity 15 Democratic orientation 7 Justice 5 Devotion 4 None 29 Other 4 DK/NA 18 29
Most disliked features of Armenian politicians or parties (%) Conflicts 19 Corruption 15 Dishonesty 15 Arrogance 13 Indifference 9 Stubbornness 6 Other 3 None 5 DK/NA 17 30
Major mistakes and failures of Armenian authorities over the last year (%) Not preventing the rise of prices 14 21 Ignoring laws 12 16 Privatization 12 15 Lack of attention to people Lack of fight against corruption 3 6 8 10 First mention All mentioned Not returning deposits 3 4 Falsification of referendum 3 3 Other 11 15 DK/NA 37 37 31
The wrongdoing and corruption of political leaders and authorities is (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 70 Very serious problem Rather serious problem Not very serious problem Not a problem at all DK/NA 30 25 20 10 0 3 1 1 32
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 33
Evaluation of Relations With Good Bad Neither good, nor bad DK/NA Russia 95 4 10 Iran 86 9 4 1 European Union 85 7 5 3 USA 67 18 14 2 Georgia 43 46 10 1 Turkey 7 90 3 1 Azerbaijan 2 97 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 34
International Relations: Partners and Threats 35
How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future? 77 20 2 1 0 Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA 36
Thinking about the future of Nagorno Karabakh, do you think it should (%) 41 31 27 0 1 Be an ordinary region of Armenia, without any autonomy Be an autonomous region of the Armenian state Be an independent country Be a part of Azerbaijan DK/NA 37
Do you think that the current situation in regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh should be resolved through negotiations and peaceful means or, if necessary, the use of force? (%) 85 13 0 2 60 80 100 Negotiations and peaceful means Using force if necessary Other DK/NA 38
Does it concern you that the President of Azerbaijan has pledged to increase defense spending dramatically? Not very concerned 10% Not at all concerned 5% DK/NA 5% Yes, very concerned 37% Neutral 10% Slightly concerned 33% 39
Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? Probably not 21% Definitely not 3% DK/NA 5% Definitely yes 19% Probably yes 52% 40
In your opinion, does the presence of the Russian military base in Armenia have a positive or negative influence on Armenian independence and stability? Negative influence 2% DK/NA 6% Both positive and negative 11% Positive influence 65% Neither positive nor negative 16% 41
Should the Government of Armenia agree to open the border for trade, etc. with Turkey even if the Turkish Government does not recognize the Genocide? DK/NA 9% Should open the border regardless 42% Should not open the border 49% 42
Do you agree with the US, EU and Russian efforts to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons? Definitely disagree 11% DK/NA 16% Definitely agree 31% Somewhat disagree 16% Somewhat agree 26% 43
Do you have friends or relatives working abroad? No 39% DK/NA 0% Yes 61% 44
Do you personally benefit from remittances being sent from friends or relatives working abroad? (Of those interviewed, 737 have friends or relatives abroad) DK/NA 0% Yes 45% No 55% 45
How do you feel about the living standard of ethnic Armenians in Georgia? (%) 46
Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? (%) 45 42 7 3 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 Definitely yes Probably yes Probably now Definitely now DK/NA 47
Should Armenia in the future (%) Join NATO 10 30 28 17 14 Join the EU 38 42 9 3 8 Remain a member of the CIS 49 33 8 3 6 Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA 48
INSTITUTIONS 49
Confidence in Institutions (%) European Union 87 13 CIS 83 14 3 Army 83 17 United Nations 78 15 7 Church 77 21 2 Armenian Media 67 31 2 OSCE 63 23 14 NATO 51 36 13 Central bank 48 45 7 Educational system 45 53 2 Police 40 59 1 President's Office 35 60 5 Government (Cabinet of Ministers) 33 64 3 Political Parties 32 65 3 Armenian Parliament 31 67 2 Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 50
HEROES OF OUR TIME 51
Heroes of our time Of the prominent characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in current times? (Open-ended question, %) 35 14 15 10 9 6 6 5 4 4 2 8 Andranik Garegin Njdeh Vazgen Sargsyan Karen Demirchyan Tigran Metz Sharl Aznavur Dro Monte Melkonyan Mesrop Mashtoc Other None DK/NA 52
VALUES OF ARMENIAN PEOPLE (Mean scores, where 1 - Important to me, 9 - Most important to me 53
Tolerance It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions 27 66 7 Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups 37 56 7 In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to minority groups must give up parts of their religion or culture which may conflict with Armenian traditions 39 50 11 Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities Armenia would have problems 49 39 12 Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted members of Armenian society depends on which group they belong to 39 45 16 Tend to agree Tend to disagree DK/NA 54
Trust in elections 10 How fraudulent was the referendum of 2005? (10 - very fraudulent, 1 - not at all fraudulent) 9 8 7 7.54 7.8 7.31 7.41 7.51 7.7 8.15 7.14 7.25 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Male Female 18-29 30-49 50+ Capital Town Village 55
Trust in elections Next Parliamentary elections will be (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 17 70 Parties electorate 13 Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion 56
Trust in elections 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 How fraudulent will the upcoming Parliamentary elections be? (10 - very fraudulent, 1 - not at all fraudulent) 7.04 7.12 6.96 Total Male Female 6.64 18-29 6.99 30-49 7.44 7.65 6.73 6.63 50+ Capital Town Village 7.04 Total 57
Trust in elections Do you think the Armenian Government is implementing antifraud measures for the parliamentary elections and that elections will indeed be free and fair? DK/NA 17% Yes, it is implementing such measures and there will be improvement 22% No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement 61% 58
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS 59
Gender Male 47% Female 53% 50+ y.o. 31% Age groups 18-29 y.o. 27% 30-49 y.o. 42% 60
Unfinished higher 7% University, higher 34% Education Primary 1% Unfinished secondary 7% Vocational 23% Secondary 28% Household size Five and more 45% One 4% Two 10% Four 28% Three 13% 61
Sector of employment Don't work 64% DK/NA 1% Non governmental 1% State 18% Private 16% Member of NGO 2.0% Member of a party 9.0% DK/NA 0.0% Membership in organizations None 89.0% 62
Once a week 11% A few times a week 3% Every Day 2% DK/NA 1% Attendance of religious service Never 10% Once a month 28% A few times per year 45% Other 1,0% NA/DK 0,0% Religion Other Christian 1,0% None 1,0% Muslim 0,0% Yezidi 1,0% Armenian Apostolic 96,0% 63
Region Kotayk 8% Syunik 4% Shirak 9% Vayots Dzor 2% Tavush 4% Yerevan 37% Lory 8% Gegharkhunik 5% Armavir 9% Ararat 8% Aragatsotn 4% 64