Table 1. : Monthly Data for Key Macroeconomic Indicators. 1 1 Year-on-year change, in percent Oct Nov Dec FY to date Oct Nov Dec FY to date Oct Nov Dec FY to date ( months) ( months) ( months) Inflation (end of period, in percent) 7. 7. 7.. 1. 11. Imports (in US$ m) 1,1 7 1 1,719 - -7-19 -9 of which: oil imports (in US$ m) 11 1 1 1 1 19-1 - -9 - Exports (in US$ m) 7 7 9 - - -1 - Remittances (in US$ m) 7 7 7,1, 11 11 1 Flow of migrant workers (thousands) 17-7 - - Tourist arrivals (thousands) 1 7 1 1 7 - - - - Revenue (in NR bn) 9 1 7 1 17 11 - - - -1 Expenditure (in NR bn) 7 1 9-1 -1-1 Current expenditure (in NR bn) 9 1 17-1 -1 11-1 Capital expenditure (in NR bn) 9 9 9 1 - - 1 1 Year-on-year change, in percent Stocks Flow Stocks Flow 1 Flow Oct Nov Dec FY to date Oct Nov Dec FY to date Oct Nov Dec FY to date ( months) ( months) ( months) Central bank reserves (in US$ m),1,1, 7, 7,9,19 1, 9 1 Credit to the private sector (in NR bn) 1,1 1, 1,1 1 1,1 1,19 1,1 7 17 1 1 -
Dec-7 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-7 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 9/1 1/11 11/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 Figure 1: : Recent Fiscal Developments Strong revenue growth combined with subdued capital spending kept the budget in surplus the past years. 1 Fiscal Performance Revenue Capital expenditure Current expenditure Overall balance As a result, s public debt has been on a downward path, unlike in other low-income countries. Public Debt in and other LICs 1 - Median for Low-Income Countries 7 9 1 11 1 1 1 1 Sources: IMF, LIC DSF database, and IMF staff estimates. However, the ongoing trade disruption has caused a marked decline in government revenue. Over the past months, revenue was down 1 percent from a year ago. - - Government Revenue Total revenue (y/y change in mma) Total revenue (annual average change) Government spending has also been held back by the disruptions. Spending in the past months was down percent from a year ago. 9 7 1-1 - - Goverment Spending Current and capital spending (y/y change in mma) Current and capital spending (annual average change) As a result, execution rates for the 1/1 budget are distinctly lower than in recent years, despite the large post-earthquake reconstruction needs 1 9 7 1 Budget Execution Rate (in percent) 1/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Capital 1/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Capital 1/1 - Capital 1/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Capital 1 9 7 1 and NR billion (. percent of GDP) has accumulated in the government s account at the central bank (NRB) so far this fiscal year. 1 9 7 1 Cash Accumulation in the Treasury (In billions of i Rupees, change since start of the FY) 11/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Note: Increase in government deposits at the NRB plus decline in domestic debt.
Dec- Dec- Dec-7 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-7 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Figure : Recent External Sector Developments Remittances rose markedly following the earthquakes in April and May. And inflows in December 1 (US$ million) were 11 percent higher than in December 1. 7 1-1 Remittances Monthly flow (in millions of U.S. dollars, RHS) Y/Y change in mma (in percent) Y/Y change in HP filtered series (in percent) 7 1-1 The outflow of migrant workers declined in recent months, possibly due to the weaker growth in oil-exporting host countries (e.g. Malaysia, Saudi Arabia). 1 1 - - - Foreign Employment Monthly Flow (thousands of persons, RHS) Y/Y change in mma (in percent) Y/Y change in HP filtered series (in percent) 1-1 - - The ongoing trade disruption is depressing imports and exports. Over the past months, imports were down 9 percent from the same period last year. 7 - - -7 Trade and Private Sector Credit (In percent) Exports (y/y change in mma) Imports (y/y change in mma) Private Sector Credit (y/y) 7 - - -7 The decline in imports has reduced the trade deficit considerably. In combination with the continued strength of remittances, this raised the current account surplus. 7 1-1 - Current Account Balance (In millions of US dollars) Trade Deficit (mma) Remittances (mma) Current Account Balance (mma) The higher current account surplus pushed up central bank reserves (including gold and SDR holdings) to a record US$. billion in December. 1 1 Central Bank Gross Official Reserves Reserves in billions of U.S. dollars Reserves in months of prospective imports 1 1
Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Figure : Recent Monetary Developments Reserve money growth amounted to 1 percent (y/y) in December on rising central bank net foreign assets (NFA). 7 1-1 - - - Central Bank Balance Sheet (In percent, contribution to reserve money growth) Net claims on government Net foreign assets Other net domestic assets Reserve money growth (y/y) 7 1-1 - - - The rise in NFA also pushed up the growth of broad money (M), to percent (y/y) in December. 1 1 - -1 Broad Money Growth (In percent, contribution to broad money growth) Private sector credit Other net domestic assets M growth Net claims on government Net foreign assets 1 1 - -1 Broad money growth has been highly correlated with reserve money growth. Monetary aggregates (Percent change, year on year) Broad money (y/y) Reserve money (y/y) Inflation rose to 11. percent (y/y) in December as the trade disruption compounded the effect of the earthquakes 1 Consumer Price Inflation (Percent change, year-on-year) Non-food items (contribution to headline CPI) Food items (contribution to headline CPI) Non-food CPI (y/y) Headline CPI (y/y) 1 1 1 1 1-1 -1 As a result, inflation in is percentage points higher than in. 1 1 Consumer Prices in and (Percent change, year on year) 1 1 In combination with the peg to the n rupee, this has put the REER 1 percent above the 1/1 average. 1 1 Exchange Rates (+) Appreciation 1. 1. 1 1 1 11 REER index (1=1) NEER index (1=1) USD per 1 NRs (RHS) 1. 1.1 : Headline CPI (y/y) : Headline CPI (y/y) 1 9 7 (-) Depreciation 1..9..7 Sources: i authorities, Haver analytics; and IMF staff estimates.
China Vietnam LIC median Mongolia Lao P.D.R. Cambodia Myanmar 9/1 1/11 11/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 Mongolia Vietnam Lao P.D.R. Cambodia Figure. : Economic Growth, Human Development, Remittances, and Exports Growth averaged. percent in recent years but slowed to. percent in 1/1 due to the earthquake. 7 1 Real GDP Growth (Percent change) Real GDP, Other Real GDP, Agriculture Real GDP 7 1 s growth has lagged peers and per capita GDP remains lower than in other Asian countries. 1, 1,,,,, Per Capita GDP (PPP) (In current international dollars) 1 Source: World Bank, WDI Database. Poverty declined to percent of the population in 1/11. It is higher in rural and mountainous areas. 7 1 Poverty rate, 199/9-1/11 (In percent of the population) National Urban Rural Mountainous The decline in poverty is reflected in an improvement in s UNDP Human Development Index...7......1. Human Development Index (HDI) (Index number) HDI, 1 Average HDI (19-1)..7......1. 199/9 / 1/11 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics. Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 1. Compared to other countries, has high remittances. But exports have been growing slower than GDP. 1 1 Inflows of Remittances, Selected Countries, 1 9 7 1 Exports of Goods and Services 199-99 average -9 average 1 Sources: World Bank, Remittances Data; IMF, World Economic Outlook. Sources: World Economic Outlook, and IMF staff estimates.