Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance May 217 www.vbw-bayern.de
bayme vbm vbw May 217 Contents X Table of Contents 1 Germany... 1 2 Eurozone... 2 3 World Economy... 3 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators... 4 Imprint... 5
bayme vbm vbw May 217 Germany 1 1 Germany Leading indicators continue to spread confidence Leading indicators for the German economy suggest a still robust economy. The Ifo Business Climate Index (Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) has slightly increased thanks to a better assessment of the situation by the companies. The expectations, however, have gone down to some extent. The sentix Economic index has improved in both expectations and the assessment of the situation. The Economic Sentiment Indicator and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) picked up as well. The Purchasing Managers Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) fell by a margin of.1 points, but remained well above the growth threshold at 58.2 points. According to toll statistics, the data on the mileage of the trucks was only moderately expanded. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 25 = 13 12 11 9 Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change 65 55 5 45 35 3 7 Source: ifo Institut 25 Source: MarkIT Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 25 = 13 12 11 9 7 ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany 2 - - - Source: Eurostat Source: ZEW Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 2% industrial output (3-month average) 2% 15% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% 2-15% % - % 28 213 214 215 216 29 21 211 212 217-25% - 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis. Source: sentix
bayme vbm vbw May 217 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Leading indicators are pointing up The leading indicators for the euro zone enjoy a synchronized upswing. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) rose thanks to both a better assessment of the situation and higher expectations. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the Eurozone as well as the ESI for the EU went up, too. The Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) also increased and is now at 56.7 points. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) only slightly improved. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the Eurozone was published in February. The balance of positive and negative assessments of the current situation rose from +2. to +8.3 percentage points. The expectation balance improved noticeably from +14.3 to +26.9 points. Thus, the climate index rose from +8.2 to +17.2 points. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index Economic Sentiment Indicator 25 = EU Eurozone 12 11 2 9 - - 7 - Sorce: sentix Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change 55 5 45 35 3 Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area 2 - - - Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone balances Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months 2 - - - - Source: ifo Institut
4.1.216 4.2.216 4.3.216 4.4.216 4.5.216 4.6.216 4.7.216 4.8.216 4.9.216 4.1.216 4.11.216 4.12.216 4.1.217 4.2.217 4.3.217 4.4.217 4.5.217 Information Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance bayme vbm vbw May 217 World Economy 3 3 World Economy Some leading indicators weaken slightly The global early indicators currently show a mixed picture. The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy has continued to improve. The Container Throughput Index points upwards as well. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklima) and the Purchasing Managers Index for the global Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) on the other hand, dropped slightly. The latter one, however, remains clearly above the growth threshold at 53.9 points. At the same time, the Baltic Dry Index showed a clear downward trend last month. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the world economy was published in February. The index was able to improve from -1.2 to +2.6 points, again above the base line. The balance of the assessment of the current situation has risen by 6.3 points. With -9.4 percent points it does however stay in the negative range. The expectation balance improved by.9 up to +15. points. OECD business climate index long-time average =, seasonally adjusted 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = 14 12 12 98 98 96 96 94 Source: OECD 94 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Balances Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months 5 2 - - 3 Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. - Source: ifo Institut 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Baltic Dry Index Container Throughput Index and World Trade 216/217 seasonally adjusted, 28 = RWI/ISL -Index World Trade 1. 13 1.2 1. 12 11 2 9 Source: bloomberg 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
bayme vbm vbw May 217 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The Ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calendar effect) serves as an indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and institutional financial market participants. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklimaindex) is the weighted average of business climate indexes from 33 countries and is based on company surveys (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 12 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.
bayme vbm vbw May 217 Contact / Imprint 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economics Phone +49-()89-551 78-133 Fax +49-()89-551 78-294 volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Imprint As a general rule, all information provided in this publication relates to both the female and male form. To facilitate readability, specific reference to the female form was in most cases dispensed with. Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße 5 333 München www.baymevbm.de www.vbw-bayern.de bayme vbm vbw May 217