Political economy Norman Schofield

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Transcription:

Political economy Norman Schofield Washington University in Saint Louis

Cycles in a voting game

An asymmetric heart

Symmetric heart

The failure of half-open in 3PD

Cycles in the price simplex

Equilibrium on the 2-sphere

Stability?

Physics and biology

The social world

Consciousness and quanta

10 years of the Dow

Leaders

democracy

Spatial model

Leadership or chaos

British wages 1200-1860

Walpole

Tariffs

Disraeli

Charleston 1670

Proclamation act

Jefferson

1800

1824

1840 Harrison (whig)

1848 Taylor W versus E

1856 Buchanan

1860 Lincoln Douglas and Bell

Election 1896

1900 McKinley 51%

1904 T.Roosevelt 56%

1908 Taft 51% Bryan 43%

1912 Wilson 41% TR 27% (green)

1916 WW 59%

1928 Hoover v Al Smith 41%

1932 FDR 57%

1944 FDR 53% Dewey 45% break

1948 Truman vdewey 45% Thurmond 2%

1952 Eisenhower v stephenson44%

1960 Kennedy v Nixon -break

1964 Johnson & Goldwater

1968 Nixon, Humphrey and Wallace

1976 Carter 50% & Ford

Reagan 1984 south gone

1992 Clinton,Perot, Bush NE=dem

Clinton v Dole

Election 2000 Gore(NE) v Bush(S)

2004 Kerry v Bush

2008 Obama

1860

The US rotation 1896

2000 Gore

Activists in 2004

Money

2008

2008

2008

Prosperity and Regression

inequality

1913-2007

Debt

Election model

activists

The model

Voter utility

Solving the model

Pure spatial model

Balance equation

Theorem

Convergence coefficient

States,income and religion Rep=red, Dem= blue

Institutions 1

Corruption

Executive

Latitude

Log Mortality

Urban v GDP now

GDP v Urban in 1500

GDP now v Log pop density 1500

Mortality then v GDP now

Folk Theorem

West v East

Atlantic v Med

Prezorski

Democracy

Imperia

Mongel 1215-1300

Spanish empire up to 1808

Ottoman 1680

French empire 1814

French Empire 1763-1914

Russia

German

Italian

British Empire 1914

Great Depression

Japan 1943

Germany 1944

Global system

Governance 2009

Conflicts and deaths

#Deaths intrastate etc

Non-state conflicts

# non state conflicts

Coups d etat

Africa

Oil, income and democracy

Rich and poor

Fragile states

Fragile contd

Democratization

US military bases

FDI

Global growth

US Trade balance

%GDP/Cap US

Oil

China

Defense exp

Employment US

bubbles

Net worth

debt

US fed expen 2010-24%gdp

US tax receipts 2010

US debt

US debt/ GDP

UK debt.

Euro Debt crisis

Debt network

Euro debt/gdp us=100%

Gini

GDP EU/US

GDP EU/US

GDP growth

Factor Productivity

Country productivity ICT

GDP Country Growth

PR politics

Netherlands 1977

Netherlands 1977

Netherlands 2006

Italy 1987

Italy 1994

UK 1997

Trade

services

FDI

Capital

World GDP billions 2001

The young

holocene

Celestial oscillations

greenhouse

Sea level

hurricanes

floods

fires

food

forests

CO2

CO2 Stern

CO2

greenhouse

energy

targets

Temp

temp

Temp

Long run temp

Gdp-energy

carbon

feedbacks

Rainfall (Red=less

rainfall

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/17/371350/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/a1fi-me... Page 1 of 1 11/19/2011

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/hoerlingetalfig1b.jpg Page 1 of 1 11/19/2011

http://www2.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/news/2010/2030-2039woceanlabels.jpg Page 1 of 1 11/19/2011

GDP/energy

China

china

growth

manufacturing

consumption

Lights on

oil

knowledge

ardipithecus

Brains

The market

http://www.measuringworth.com/graphs/graph.php?year_from=1900&year_to=2010&tab... Page 1 of 423 11/27/2011

Measuring Worth - Graphs of Various Historical Economic Series http://www.measuringworth.com/graphs/graph.php?year_from=1900&year_to=2010&tab... Page 1 of 1 11/27/2011 Logarithm of US Real GDP (billions of 2005 dollars) Another Computation? Citation Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson, "Graphing Various Historical Economic Series" MeasuringWorth.Com, January 2008. Please read our Note on Data Revisions. Copyright Notice Copyright 2011 MeasuringWorth. All rights reserved. This work may be copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given. For other permission, please contact admin@measuringworth.com. MeasuringWorth is a service for calculating relative worth over time.

Measuring Worth - Graphs of Various Historical Economic Series http://www.measuringworth.com/graphs/graph.php?year_from=1900&year_to=2010&tab... Page 1 of 1 11/27/2011 US Real GDP Per Capita (year 2005 dollars) Another Computation? Citation Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson, "Graphing Various Historical Economic Series" MeasuringWorth.Com, January 2008. Please read our Note on Data Revisions. Copyright Notice Copyright 2011 MeasuringWorth. All rights reserved. This work may be copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given. For other permission, please contact admin@measuringworth.com. MeasuringWorth is a service for calculating relative worth over time.