Central Florida Leadership Survey May 29-June 3, 2007
Central Florida Leadership Survey Sample of 702 respondents taken from a population of registered voters Base sample of 502 registered voters. supplemented by oversample of 200 Hispanic voters Final results weighted to reflect the known percentage of registered voters with Hispanic surnames Interviews conducted May 29-June 3, 2007 Typical interview was about 10 minutes Sampling error of ±3.7% for results based on full sample of 702 ± 4.5% for Anglo subsample, n=481 ± 6.5% for Hispanic subsample, n=217 LAI = Latin American immigrants 2
Key findings Although Hispanics seeking the American Dream in Central Florida think of discrimination as a problem, they are less likely than Hispanics in the rest of nation to feel victimized by discrimination. Hispanics and Anglos agree that today s immigrants posses strong family values and work hard at jobs other Americans don t want, but they disagree over the assimilation of immigrants into society and extent of social problems caused by immigration. Healthcare and education impacts are flash-points. Older Anglos are most pessimistic about immigration while younger female Anglos are most optimistic. The status quo in legal immigration policies is preferred. Solid majorities of both Hispanics and Anglos endorse a path to permanent legal status for illegal immigrants. Neither political party is seen as offering better immigration policies. 3
WHO are the Hispanics of Central Florida, and HOW are they doing? 4
Most reside in Orange, metro Orlando area TOTAL Orange Seminole Osceola Lake Volusia Polk Brevard Percentage 100% 44 16 14 2 11 7 6 Metro Orlando 76% 5
Most hail from Puerto Rico, but Mexico is soaring TOTAL Puerto Rico Mexico South America Caribbean Cuba Central America Europe Other/refused Percentage 100% 44 13 10 9 8 8 5 3 6
No preference for ethnic terminology Which term do you prefer, Hispanic or Latino? Hispanic 16% No preference 70% Latino 10% No opinion 4% Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 7
Hispanics skew much younger than Anglos Hispanics Years of age Anglos 100% TOTAL 100% +23 points over Anglos 41 9 18-34 35-39 18 5 21 40 49 20 15 50-59 20 8 6 41 yrs 60 69 70 or older MEAN 19 18 53 yrs Two or three times more than Hispanics 8
Hispanics are much newer voters Hispanics YEARS REGISTERED Anglos + 24 points vs. Anglos 56% Under 5 32% 31 5 to 12 31 13 Over 12 37 + 24 points vs. Hispanics 9
Independence from any party Hispanics Anglos - 24 points under Anglos 22% 39 Republican Democrat 46% 33 + 18 points over Anglos 39 Independent 21 10
Parity at top of socio-economic ladder, but Hispanics crowd lower rung +14 points more than Anglos Hispanics 50% 24 Income + education Low Medium Anglos 36% 35 26 High 29 Parity 11
Discrimination thought a genuine obstacle Hispanic responses only Think discrimination is a problem preventing Hispanics from succeeding in America? No 31% No opinion 2% Major problem 34% Yes 68% Minor problem 34% Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 12
Hispanics vs. Anglos: Different realities Think discrimination is a problem preventing Hispanics from succeeding in America? 67% Yes Not a problem Even Anglos who accept the reality of discrimination think of it as a minor, not a major, problem (10% major; 29% minor) 51% 31% 39% Hispanic Anglo 13
Central Florida Hispanics perceive less discrimination than do all U.S. Hispanics Think discrimination is a problem preventing Hispanics from succeeding in America? Pew Hispanic Center 6/5 7/3, 2006 2,000 nationwide Hispanic adults No 31% US/Pew: 15% No opinion 2% US/Pew: 58% US/Pew: 24% Major problem 34% Minor problem 34% Yes 68% US/Pew: 82% Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 14
Ultimately, Hispanic optimism triumphs Direction things are headed in your part of Florida? Right direction Wrong track Unsure Hispanic Anglo 40% 35% 31% Anglos are +17 points more pessimistic than Hispanics 48% 29% 18% Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 15
The problem of immigration, and perceptions of immigrants 16
Concern over illegal immigration is widespread and intense All respondents Very concerned 49% Not at all concerned 8% Not too concerned 13% Somewhat concerned 30% Concerned 79% 17
Anglo worries outpace Hispanic How concerned are you about illegal immigration? Very Somewhat Not too Not at all 39% 27% 16% 18% Hispanic Anglos are +15 points more very concerned than Hispanics Anglo 54% 29% 11% 5% 18
Conservative, senior Anglos worry most (% very concerned, selected categories of Anglos) Conservative Retired Female 50+ yrs 60+ yrs Male 50+ yrs High school or less 40-59 yrs GOP Some college $30K or less Low SES TOTAL 70% 67% 65% 64% 62% 59% 58% 58% 57% 57% 56% 54% 19
But most Anglos acknowledge that Latin American immigrants... Percentage Yes shown Hispanic Anglo 94% 94% 90% 74% 76% 60% Work very hard Have strong family values Mostly take jobs Americans don't want 20
Central FL opinions roughly match national sentiment about key jobs issue US/NYT: 12% No opinion 17% Take jobs away from Americans 19% US/NYT: 30% Take jobs Americans don't want 65% US/NYT: 59% New York Times (NYT) Poll: 5/18 5/23, 2007 1,125 adults in U.S. Note: Percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 21
What worries central Florida Anglos most today about immigration and immigrants? 22
Anglos especially don t perceive assimilation like in years past Perceived willingness of immigrants to adapt to American way of life, compared to those in early 1900s More willing Less willing About the same Hispanic 42% 25% 27% Anglo 11% 62% ~6:1 margin is stark and troubling 17% 23
Many Anglos are nervous about immigrants social impact Hispanic Anglo Percentage Yes shown 61% 26% 39% 23% 35% 45% Often end up on welfare? Do very well in school? Latin American immigrants...? Significantly increase crime? 24
Most Anglos (and many Hispanics) say hospitals, schools are besieged Latin American immigrants overburden local hospitals & school districts? Hispanic 34% 56% Yes No Anglo 52% 28% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 25
Most Anglos and plurality of Hispanics want quicker adoption of English Think most recent immigrants learn English within a reasonable amount of time? Hispanic 44% 48% Yes No Anglo 22% 67% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 26
Central FL opinions roughly match national Think most recent immigrants learn English within a reasonable amount of time? US/NYT: 7% No opinion 10% Yes 27% US/ NYT: 31% No 62% US/NYT: 62% New York Times (NYT) Poll: 5/18 5/23, 2007 1,125 adults in U.S. Note: Percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 27
Hispanics are satisfied (Anglos less so) with ESL programs Effectiveness of public school ESL courses teaching English? 45% 26% 15% 8% Hispanic Very Somewhat Not very Not at all Anglo 16% 33% 17% 13% Note: Unsure and refused responses are not shown; many Anglos are unsure re: ESL courses 28
Bottom line is positive for Hispanics, a muddle for Anglos Point-of-view closest to your own: Immigrants today strengthen the country vs. are a burden? Hispanic 73% 16% 5% Strengthens country Burden Both Anglo 34% 39% 13% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 29
What do Central Floridians want to do on key hot-button immigration issues? Visas and legal immigration In-state college tuition Amending constitution for birthright citizenship Border Security Amnesty 30
Status quo on legal immigration is plurality preference, but as many Hispanics want boost Legal immigration should be...? No opinion 11% Hispanics: 18% Anglos: 27% US/NYT: 35% Hispanics: 34% Anglos: 19% Decreased 26% Increased 23% US/NYT: 20% Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. Kept at present level 41% US/NYT: 39% Anglos: 43% Hispanics: 34% New York Times (NYT) Poll: 5/18 5/23, 2007 1,125 adults in U.S. 31
Support for holding steady with current levels of HB1 visas Level of temporary, high-skilled worker visas should be...? Maintained 49% Anglos: 50% Hispanics: 41% Anglos: 13% Hispanics: 42% Increased 19% No opinion 8% Decreased 24% Anglos: 27% Hispanics: 10% 32
On the surface, a balance of opinion about in-state tuition for children of illegals... Illegals who graduate from FL high schools should be given in-state college tuition rates? No opinion 6% Yes 49% No 45% 33
... but topline numbers mask deep ethnic divisions Illegals who graduate from FL high schools should be given in-state college tuition rates? Hispanic 72% 19% Yes No - 29 point difference Anglo 43% 52% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 34
Hispanics united, Anglos divided on birthright citizenship Amend Constitution so parents must be legal residents for newborn to be citizen? Hispanic 19% 78% Favor change Leave as is Anglo 46% 48% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 35
Anglos most in favor of amending constitution to limit citizenship Conservatives, retirees, Republicans, males Conservative Retired Male 50+ yrs GOP 40-59 yrs Female 50+ yrs More than $70K 60+ yrs High SES Male Some college Moderate TOTAL 56% 53% 53% 52% 51% 50% 50% 50% 50% 48% 48% 47% 46% 36
Anglos most opposed to amending constitution to limit citizenship Liberals, young, low-income, Democrats Liberal 18-39 yrs $30K or less Democratic Female 18-49 yrs Male 18-49 yrs Full-time employed $31K-$70K Medium SES College graduate Male TOTAL 61% 58% 58% 57% 57% 53% 52% 51% 49% 49% 48% 69% 37
Most Anglos and many Hispanics are ready to spend more on border security To prevent illegal immigration, government should...? Hispanic 32% 25% 34% Spend more Spend less Spend about the same Anglo 65% 11% 17% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 38
Solid majorities of Hispanics and Anglos endorse a path to permanent legal status Illegals currently in U.S. should be allowed to...? Hispanic 7% 14% 78% Deport all Work for limited time Remain, become citizens Anglo 27% 11% 56% Note: Unsure and refused not shown 39
Taking all issues into account, which central Florida Anglos are most and least favorable to immigrants and immigration? 40
Multi-item scale of attitudes toward immigration points to young Anglo females as best friend of immigrants Select categories of highest scale scores, Anglos only Female 18-49 yrs 18-39 yrs Liberal 45% 45% 50% Independent; other party $31K-$70K More than $70K High SES TOTAL 37% 36% 36% 35% 31% 41
Multi-item scale of attitudes toward immigration identifies retirees as least friendly to immigrants Select categories of lowest scale scores, Anglos only Retired Male 50+ yrs Conservative High school or less Low SES 40% 38% 37% 34% 33% TOTAL 27% 42
Neither political party is seen as having the best position on immigration Both equal 2% No opinion 22% Anglos: 28% Hispanics: 17% Neither 26% Republicans 22% Anglos: 24% Hispanics: 16% Democrats 28% Anglos: 26% Hispanics: 35% Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding. 43