CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Monday, March 21, 2016 7:00 am EDT Support for Restoring U.S.-Cuba Relations March 11-15, 2016 Amid President Barack Obama s historic trip to Cuba, a majority of Americans support restoring U.S.-Cuba diplomatic ties, and 52% approve of the President s handling of relations with the island nation. Six in 10 Americans think restoring diplomacy with Cuba is mostly good for the U.S., but views are mixed on whether it will lead to more democracy in Cuba. The public, however, doesn t share the President s goal of closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay: 52% want it to remain open. In December 2014 the President announced that U.S. and Cuba would resume diplomatic ties after more than 50 years. 58% of Americans support this, while just 25% oppose. Most Democrats and independents favor re-establishing diplomacy, while Republicans are divided. Re-establishing Diplomatic Relations with Cuba 7/2015 Favor 58% 44% 69% 57% 58 Oppose 25 42 16 21 24 Don t know 18 15 15 22 18 Americans have long supported this move. When Gallup asked a version of this question back in 1977, 53% of Americans thought diplomatic relations with Cuba should be re-established. While diplomacy may have resumed, the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba remains in effect. 55% of Americans favor the United States ending its trade embargo against Cuba. Ending the U.S. Trade Embargo Against Cuba 7/2015 Favor 55% 43% 64% 56% 54% Oppose 27 38 18 26 28 Don t know 18 19 17 18 18 As President Obama visits Cuba the first for a sitting U.S. president since Calvin Coolidge 88 years ago more now approve of the President s handling of relations between the two countries. 52% of Americans approve; a slight uptick from last summer and an increase of eight points since 2014. President Obama s Handling of Relations with Cuba Now 7/2015 12/2014 Approve 52% 50% 44% Disapprove 30 31 36 Don t know 18 20 20
While Republicans may be split on the restoration of diplomatic ties with Cuba, a majority of them disapprove of how the President is handling relations with that country. President Obama s Handling of Relations with Cuba Approve 52% 23% 78% 50% Disapprove 30 55 12 28 Don t know 18 22 10 22 Impact of Renewed Relations on Cuba, U.S. When asked what impact restored relations will have on Cuba, Americans are inclined to think it will lead to more democracy (40%) rather than less (3%), however, half think it will make no difference. On the other hand, most Americans think it will benefit the U.S; 62% think re-establishing relations with Cuba will be mostly good for the U.S. Republicans are less likely to view it that way than Democrats and independents. Re-establishing Diplomatic Relations with Cuba Will.. Lead to more Democracy for Cuba 40% 32% 52% 36% Lead to less Democracy for Cuba 3 3 3 36 No difference 50 59 40 52 Be mostly good for the U.S. 62% 49% 72% 62% Be mostly bad for the U.S. 24 39 17 20 Don t know 15 13 11 18 Currently, Cuban citizens who arrive at a U.S. port of entry and pass an inspection can stay in the U.S. and apply for legal permanent residence after a year. Just a quarter of Americans think this policy should stay in place, while most think Cuban immigrants should now be treated like other immigrants trying to enter the U.S. Cuban Immigrants To the U.S. Keep current policy 23% 22% 27% 21% Same as other immigrants 69 72 64 70 Views of Cuba, Travel Overall, Americans views of Cuba have grown more positive recently. 51% now have a favorable impression of Cuba (similar to what a Gallup poll found in February). Prior to this year, Gallup polling consistently showed more negative than positive views of Cuba. Back in 1996, nearly nine in 10 Americans viewed the country unfavorably.
Americans Views of Cuba Favorable Unfavorable Now 51% 32 (CBS) 2/2016 54% 40 (Gallup) 2/2014 38% 57 (Gallup) 2/2011 30% 62 (Gallup) 2/2004 28% 67 (Gallup) 5/1999 24 69 (Gallup) 3/1996 10 81 (Gallup) There are partisan differences: Most Democrats (56%) view Cuba favorably, compared to just over a third of Republicans (36%). As favorable opinions of Cuba have risen so has interest in taking a trip there. 43% of Americans now say they would be very or somewhat interested in visiting Cuba, up 10 points from the fall of 2014. Still, traveling to Cuba doesn t appeal to most Americans 57% have little or no interest. Younger Americans have a greater desire than older Americans to go to Cuba. Along political lines, Democrats (49%) are more interested in such a trip than Republicans (24%). How Interested Are You in Visiting Cuba? Now 10/2014* 1/2011 Very/somewhat 43% 33% 32 Not very/not at all 57 65 68 *New York Times Poll Since assuming office, it has been a goal of President Obama s to close the U.S. military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba and last month he sent his plan to Congress. But the public disagrees with the President on this issue. 52% of Americans want to see the prison remain open, including most Republicans and independents. A slim majority of Democrats wants Guantanamo Bay to be closed. What Should Happen to Guantanamo Bay Prison? 1/2015 Continue to operate 52% 74% 38% 48% 56% Close it 38 19 52 39 35 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------- This poll was conducted by telephone March 11-15, 2016 among a random sample of 1,022 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for other subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
CBS NEWS POLL Support for Restoring U.S.-Cuba Relations March 11-15, 2016 CU-05. Do you favor or oppose re-establishing U.S. diplomatic relations with Cuba? * TOTAL RESPONDENTS * Total Rep Dem Ind Jul15b % % % % % Favor 58 44 69 57 58 Oppose 25 42 16 21 24 Don't know/no answer 18 15 15 22 18 CU-06. Do you favor or oppose the United States government ending its trade embargo against Cuba? Favor 55 43 64 56 54 Oppose 27 38 18 26 28 Don't know/no answer 18 19 17 18 18 CU-01. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling relations with Cuba? Approve 52 23 78 50 50 Disapprove 30 55 12 28 31 Don't know/no answer 18 22 10 22 20 CU-07. What is your overall opinion of Cuba -- very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Very favorable 7 3 8 8 Mostly favorable 44 33 48 46 Mostly unfavorable 21 34 17 17 Very unfavorable 11 16 11 8 Don't know/no answer 18 14 16 21 CU-08. Do you think re-establishing relations between the U.S. and Cuba will be mostly good for the U.S. or mostly bad for the U.S.? Good for the U.S. 62 49 72 62 Bad for the U.S. 24 39 17 20 Don't know/no answer 15 13 11 18 CU-09. Do you think re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba will lead to more democracy for Cuba, less democracy for Cuba, or don't you think it will make much of a difference? Dec14f More democracy 40 32 52 36 36 Less democracy 3 3 3 3 5 No difference 50 59 40 52 49 Don't know/no answer 7 6 6 9 9
CU-10. As you may know, since 1966, Cuban citizens who arrive at a U.S. port of entry and pass a criminal and immigration inspection can stay in the U.S. and apply for legal permanent residence after one year. Do you think this benefit should still be offered to Cuban immigrants or do you think they should be treated like all other immigrants to the U.S.? * TOTAL RESPONDENTS * Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Should still be offered 23 22 27 21 Should be treated like all other immigrants 69 72 64 70 Don't know/no answer 8 6 9 9 CU-11. President Obama has relaxed restrictions on travel to Cuba for US citizens. How interested would you be in visiting Cuba -- very interested, somewhat interested, not very interested, not at all interested? 10/2014* % Very interested 18 7 22 22 14 Somewhat interested 25 17 27 27 18 Not very interested 17 19 18 14 17 Not at all interested 40 57 30 37 51 Don't know/no answer 1 * 2 * 0 *New York Times Poll CU-12. As you may know, for the past several years the United States has been holding a number of suspected terrorists at a US military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Based on what you have heard or read, do you think the US should continue to operate the prison at Guantanamo Bay, or do you think the US should close the prison and transfer the prisoners somewhere else? Jan15b Continue to operate 52 74 38 48 56 Close it 38 19 52 39 35 Don't know/no answer 10 7 10 13 9 UNWEIGHTED Total respondents 1022 WEIGHTED Republicans 274 256 Democrats 322 321 Independents 426 445