Presentation by: Michael Jandl Irregular Migration, Human Smuggling and Informal Economy in a European Perspective" Presentation at the conference of the National Thematic Network for Asylum Seekers 25.October 2005, Gothenburg, Sweden
International Centre for Migration Policy Development Return & Readmission THB & People Smuggling Asylum & Protection It is ICMPD s aim to promote comprehensive and sustainable migration policies and function as an information exchange mechanism for governments and organisations primarily on European migration issues Visa Border Management Labour Migration Integration 2
Outline of Presentation 1. Overview of Irregular Migration in Europe 2. Recent Trends in Irregular Migration 3. Research on Human Smuggling Distinction Smuggling - Trafficking 4. Some implications for asylum, irregular labour markets and integration 5. Discussion 3
Irregular Migration as a subject of research? Irregular (illegal/undocumented) migration is - Clandestine and thus hidden from view But it is also: - Of high social and political relevance therefore, researchers need to find ways to learn more about the extent and nature of irregular migration 4
Irregular Migration: Definitions and Types 6 relevant types: Residence legal Residence illegal Entry legal Entry illegal Work illegal Work illegal No Work Work illegal Work illegal No Work 5
Methods for estimating the size of irregular migration? Differentiation: - Stock data (illegal residence, illegal work) - Flow data (illegal entry) 6
Forms of Irregular Migration I Illegal Border Crossings - Using border apprehension figures, an estimated 600 800,000 migrants annually crossed EU-25 borders illegally (data for 2001) Visa over-stayers - Difficult to quantify but according to figures from regularization programmes could be again several hundred thousands annually 7
Forms of Irregular Migration II False, Falsified or Fraudulently Obtained Documents - False/falsified passports, visas or residence permits, False guarantees for obtaining visas - Sham marriages, Fake adoptions, bogus students, Fraudulently self-employed, etc. Total irregular Gross Migration to EU-25 could be much higher still Total irregular Net Migration:? 8
Trends and Structure of Irregular Migration More reliable conclusions can be drawn on trends and structure, rather than volume: Increases/decreases? Countries of origin? Routes of illegal migration? Social characteristics of irregular migrants? 9
Trends in border apprehensions in Western/Southern Europe Country of apprehension Austria 2000 22.999 2001 28,059 2002 26,362 2003 19,114 2004 13,584 Germany 31.485 28,560 22,638 19,974 n.a. Italy (1) 26.817 20,143 23,719 14,331 13,635 Italy (2) 9.592 4,902 3,838 1,675* n.a. Spain (3) 15.195 18.517 16.670 19,176 15,675 Switzerland (4) 5.668 4,967 7,405 8,181 6,943 TOTAL 5 111.756 105.148 100.632 82,451 n.a. (1) Italy: includes only Apulia, Calabria and Sicily (2) Italy: includes only the Northeastern Border to Slovenia, * 2003: only 1 HJ (3) Spain: includes only migrants intercepted while arriving per boat (4) Switzerland: excluding international airports 10
Trends in Border Apprehensions in Central Europe Migration related border apprehensions in 5 Central European Countries 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000-1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Czech Republic Hungary* Poland Slovakia Slovenia * Revised figures Source: ICMPD 2005 11
Trends in border apprehensions in Central/Eastern Europe in 2004 Increasing Apprehensions Decreasing Apprehensions Other States Major Illegal Flows Minor Illegal Flows 12
Countries of Origin of Illegal Migrants in EU-15 Top 10 countries of origin of apprehended illegal aliens in EU-15 in 2002 Albania 12% Rom ania 8% Other Countries 43% Iraq 8% Morocco 7% Russia 2% Uk raine 5% Turkey 3% China 3% Algeria 4% FRY 5% 13
Top 5 Countries of Origin of Illegal Migrants in CEE-19* Top 5 Source Countries in 2003 and 2004 of Migrants apprehended for illegal border crossing in 19 CEE States 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 Moldova Pakistan Russia Ukraine Iraq Source: ICMPD 2005 * Based on data from: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia-Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine 14
Possible factors in the long- term decline of apprehensions Fewer irregular migrants (?) Political/security developments in some major source countries (Afghanistan, Iraq,..) Changed definitions and travel requirements (visa obligations, EU enlargement,..) More involvement of human smuggling (lower success rates of border apprehensions) Changed modus operandi of human smugglers 15
Diversity of Irregular Migration in Europe Italy s regularization 2002/2003: - 640,000 regularizations - Top 3 countries were: Romania, Ukraine, Albania Spain s 2005 regularization : - 700,000 regularizations - Top 3 countries were: Ecuador, Romania, Morocco EU-15 (2002 CIREFI data) - Top 3 countries were: Albania, Romania, Iraq CEE-19 (2004 ICMPD data) - Top 3 countries were: Moldova, Pakistan, Russia 16
Diversity of Determining Factors across Europe - Historic developments (colonial ties, guestworker recruitment,..) - Cultural and language proximities - Geographical distance and migration routes - Labour markets - Asylum systems (?) - But above all existing communities and migrant networks 17
Irregular migration and migrant networks in Sweden Relationship of stocks of legally present foreigners and shares of apprehended illegal aliens present (in % of total, Sweden, 2001) 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0% -5,0% % share of stock of foreign nationals 2001 R 2 = 0,8886 18 % of apprehended illegal aliens present 2001 Sources: Eurostat, CIREFI
Diversity of Conditions for Irregular Migrants in Europe Southern European Countries Island Modell Western European Welfare States New EU Member States The Nordic Model 19
Irregular migration and asylum in Sweden Irregular Migration and Asylum in Sweden 2001 Appreh. illegal aliens present Asylum seekers Total 15.288 23.515 Iraq 4.140 6.206 Yugoslavia 2.713 3.102 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.967 2.775 Russian Federation 526 841 Iran 436 780 Afghanistan 431 593 Stateless 426 588 Somalia 405 525 Macedonia 346 n.a. Uzbekistan 303 n.a. Others 3.595 8.105 Sources: CIREFI, Migrationsverket 20
Irregular migration and asylum in Sweden Relationship of shares of asylum seekers and shares of apprehended illegal aliens present (in % of total, Sweden, 2001) 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% % of all asylum seekers 2001 R 2 = 0,9756 21 % of apprehended illegal aliens present 2001 Sources: CIREFI, Migrationsverket
The Role of Human Smuggling in Illegal Migration Processes Today Human Smuggling accounts for a large and growing share of illegal migration Police authorities estimate the share of facilitated entries at 30%-80% 22
Human Smuggling Networks and Division of Tasks The division of work of smuggling organizations can be characterised as follows: Recruiters Organisers Consigners Transporters Guides Falsifiers Hosts 23
A Schematic Model of Human Smuggling Origin: Recruitment En route: Transit Destination: Insertion Recruitment Services: -Advertising - Contact & Trust -- Information & Guidance -- Credit & Enforcement -- Documents SMUGGLERS - Recruitment - Transport/Guidance - Enforcement, etc.. Migrant Family Friends Acquaintances Social background Income opportunities Social Reality Horizontal Services: Money transfers, coordination, enforcement, etc. Border Crossing - green border - blue border - Air - stowaway - documents - bribery SMUGGLERS - Management -Finance - Transport/Guidance - Networking, etc. Migrant Migrant Networks Subsistence Strategies: Black & Grey Economy Asylum System Transit Services: -Transport -Shelter/Assembly Places -- Re-grouping -- Routing -Documents (faked, forged, genuine, arranged) Border Crossing - green border - blue border - Air - stowaway - documents - bribery SMUGGLERS - Intelligence - Transport - Insertion - Documents, etc.. Social Reality Income Opportunities: Black & Grey Economy Asylum System Migrant Networks Migrant Insertion Services: - Shelter & Link-up -- Work (black & grey market, Seasonal work, illicit activities Illegal activities) -Documents (visa, Residence permits) -etc. 24
Smuggling fees Typical smuggling fees from the country of origin to a Schengen country are: From China to Europe from 10,000 - to 15,000+ USD From Pakistan and India up to 8,000.. From Ukraine, depending on the type, 5,000-10,000, From Moldova to West Europe 1,500-2,000, From Serbia and Montenegro up to 3,000, On the other hand, short distance crossings can be cheaper.. 25
The problem with the Human Smuggling Industry - Undermines state sovereignty - Criminal networks - Public perceptions growth of xenophobic, populist parties further restricts room for legal migration - Loss of time and money for smuggled migrants - Disregard for human rights and high danger to live - Risk of exploitation 26
Human Smuggling: Counterstrategies - Penal law - Readmission programs - Technical improvements - Cross-border cooperation against crime - Cooperation with Source Countries - Economic strategy : raising costs 27
Economic Strategies for Migration Control Demand Side Measures Supply Side Measures Intermediary Measures 28
Some implications for migration policies I The structure of the human smuggling industry.. Gives flexibility Provides local know-how Prevents its defeat 29
Some implications for migration policies II State reactions to irregular migration can be: - Preventive - Accomodating - Reversive A comprehensive policy needs all three types 30
Some implications for migration policies III Human smugglers often explicitely target loopholes in the migration/asylum system..by instructing irregular migrants..using the reception system..providing realistic stories for sale 31
Some implications for migration policies IV Irregular migration today, is in many cases, extremely expensive for the migrants..and usually involves debt..which makes a positive outcome essential....and creates vulnerabilities 32
Some implications for migration policies V The high investments needed to pay smugglers..creates multiple obligations....creates financial obligations and burdens (high remittances can obstruct integration).. makes (forced) return a nonoption 33
Some implications for migration policies VI Human smugglers, in turn, face the problem of extracting high prices for their services in return for an uncertain outcome....need to create trust and reputation.. guaranteed smuggling services..repeated enty attempts 34
Some implications for migration policies VII Irregular migration projects have become lengthier and more risky for many..journeys can take months, even years....frequent stops in transit countries..smuggled migrants are younger than regular migrants (sometimes minors).. 35
Some implications for migration policies VIII Human smuggling can lead to unintended migration outcomes When smugglers decide destination.. Dublin Agreement may be counterproductive for integration efforts....when migrants later decide/need to move on. 36
The End.. Thank you for your attention! Contact: Michael Jandl michael.jandl@icmpd.org 37