NZ Flag Referendum Update February Quantitative Survey
Methodology > Results in this report are from the monthly UMR Online Omnibus survey. The survey is a nationally representative sample of 00 New Zealanders, years of age and over. > The latest survey was conducted from 2 th January to th February, while the previous survey was conducted from 1 st to th October. > The sample size of n=00, has a margin of error for a 50% figure at the 5% confidence level of ± 3.1%. 2
Commentary > Two thirds of New Zealanders prefer the current New Zealand flag. > Two thirds of those almost certain or very likely to participate in the referendum prefer the current New Zealand flag. > More people have indicated they are likely to participate in the 2 nd referendum than in the 1 st, almost certain to participate has increased % between asking before the 1 st referendum and before the 2 nd referendum. > Under 30s prefer the current flag more than other age groups. > voters are 50/50 on changing the flag. > Two thirds of respondents agreed that The flag referendum has been a distraction and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send John Key a message by voting for the current flag. Of voters, 4% agree with this statement. 3
Flag preference Below are the Silver Fern Flag and the current NZ flag, the flags New Zealand will choose between in the final binding referendum in March.Regardless of whether you will vote in the referendum, which would you like to be the New Zealand flag? 35 % 65 4
Certainty of voting How likely are you to participate in the upcoming referendum that will decide if we keep the current New Zealand flag or change the flag? Almost certain and very likely 6 4 4-2 5 5 % Almost certain Very likely Fairly likely Not that likely Won't participate at all 45-5 0 3 1 2 5 6 5 1 1 5
Flag preference by certainty of voting 35 65 0 Almost certain (n=62) Very likely (n=) 34 33 66 6 Fairly or not that likely (n=) 4 52 Won't participate at all (n=41) 6
Flag preference by demographics 35 65 35 65 50 50 35 65-2 2 2 30 0 3 62 32 6 45-5 3 63 3 63 3
Attitudes to the referendum Regardless of your voting intention how much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the flag debate The current flag represents our tradition and history. New Zealanders have fought several wars under that flag and that should be respected. 43 66 The flag referendum has been a distraction and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send John Key a message by voting for the current flag. 53 66 Changing to the new flag will put an end to confusion with the Australian flag. 26 50 1 21 New Zealand is now an independent sovereign nation not a British colony and it is long since time the union Jack was removed from our flag. 1 35 2 We should vote for the new flag as it could be decades before we get another chance to change it. 2 42 In principle I would like to change the flag but I just do not like the alternative.* 2 43 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree *Only asked of those that prefer the current NZ flag (n=64)
The current flag represents our tradition and history The current flag represents our tradition and history. New Zealanders have fought several wars under that flag and that should be respected. 41 21 40 45-2 44 45 40 26 25 45-5 43 45 0 3 4 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
Referendum a distraction and a waste of money The flag referendum has been a distraction and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send John Key a message by voting for the current flag. 4 33 2 56-2 52 1 6 63 4 56 45-5 56 55 1 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
End to confusion with the Australian flag Changing to the new flag will put an end to confusion with the Australian flag. 2 1 41 25 25-2 31 26 26 1 25 25 26 45-5 2 21 2 32 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
New Zealand is now an independent nation New Zealand is now an independent sovereign nation not a British colony and it is long since time the union Jack was removed from our flag. 1 2 26 21 31-2 2 31 1 30 25 45-5 33 1 34 4 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
Decades before we get another chance to change it We should vote for the new flag as it could be decades before we get another chance to change it. 40 2 31 44-2 36 45 40 1 41 45-5 46 1 45 5 5 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
Like to change the flag but I just do not like the alternative In principle I would like to change the flag but I just do not like the alternative.* 43 4 44-2 1 36 45 42 2 1 21 1 45-5 21 46 4 5 52 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree *Only asked of those that prefer the current NZ flag
For further comment please contact: Main contact David Talbot 04 43 64 021 60 00 Secondary contact Stephen Mills 04 43 65 02 543 umr@umr.co.nz www.umr.co.nz www.facebook.com/umr.research WELLINGTON AUCKLAND SYDNEY BERLIN +64 4 43 61