users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledeer/Eagleton Poll. RELEASE INFORMATION appear in Sunday s Star-Leder. Other newspapers may also use this information in their RELEASE: SL/EP 20-2 (EP 70-2) BOB CARTER FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2, 1988 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN OR A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, October 1. We ask I?L1 TtIEI?..S Bogleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey oacoi 201/828-2210 THE STATE UNrRSJTY OF NBW JEPV -more Dukakis. Bush held a three point lead going into the debate. A plurality of 41 percent said that nobody got the best of the debate, with 34 there were few expectations about who would get the better of the encounter going into the definitely or probably would vote in the election--reported watching the debate. Just as finds George Bush holding a 47 to 40 percent lead over his Democratic opponent Michael the undecided to leans to Bush column. The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll, conducted between Monday and Thursday, Two-thirds of the 514 New.Jerseyans surveyed--registered voters who said they apparently have decided to stay with what they now have to move the Garden State from debate, there is no consensus about who actually won. candidate opting to stay with what they have and tilting toward the Vice-President. Right now Bush is getting the benefit of the doubt voters. At this point we are seeing is able to cash in on what New Jerseyans see as a positive eight years of Republican rule. a small amount of additional strength while the debate was inconclusive indicates that he Cliff Zukin, director of the Poll, commented, The fact that George Bush picked up better job while Republicans and those intending to vote for Bush tended to give their man for Bush. Democrats and those intending to vote for Dukakis felt that he had done the the nod. viewer in five felt that either man had won by a lot --13 percent for Dukakis to 8 percent those voters who are not committed to either party and do not feel strongly about either After viewing last Sunday s inconclusive presidential debate, enough New.Jerseyans percent saying Dukakis had won and 26 percent feeling that Bush had done better. Just one NEW JERSEY TILTS TOWARD BUSH: MARGIN NOW 7 OVER DUKAKIS!Jbc $ar-ictjiw/eagleton POLL
55 percent saying their view of him had been unchanged by what they saw in the debate. outnumbered unfavorable ones by a similar margin of 26 to 19 percent, with a majority of become more favorable and 16 percent said less favorable. Favorable changes about Bush on what they saw, while 28 percent said their view of the Massachusetts Governor had candidate. Most viewers--57 percent--said their opinion of Dukakis had not changed based On balance, the debate did little to change New Jerseyans impressions of either Copyright: OcEober 2, 1988, The Eagleton Institute and Newark Star-Ledzer. -30- have to step up the pace of his campaign and sharpen the clarity of his message in the weeks to come if he is to overtake Bush in New Jersey. 15 percent expressing no judgment. impression of Bush, while one-third (34 percent) express an unfavorable view of him. The remaining 13 percent express no opinion. Dukakis is now slightly less well regarded than Bush--favorable opinions outnumber unfavorable ones by a margin of 46 to 39 percent, with capturing the presidency, and it is a state that is slipping away from them. Dukakis will About half (53 percent) of Garden Statefl residents continue to hold a favorable Zukin said, New Jersey is a state that the Democrats must win to have a shot at EP7O-2 (SL/EP2O-2) Page 2
(
The second wave of interviews was conducted between September 25 and 29, when an additional 514 definite would definitely or probably vote in November s election. For greater reliability a supplemental sample of an 16 and 22, 1988, when a random sample of 500 New Jerseyans ages 18 years and older was interviewed by The latest Star-Ledzer/Eagleton Poll was conducted in two waves. Wave 1 was completed between September telephone. This sampling yielded a total of 367 respondents who reported being registered to vote and saying they additional 1.38 probable voters was then interviewed about their presidential voting preference to bolster the BACKGROUND MEMO--RELEASE SL/EP 20-2 (EP 70-2). SUNDAY. OCTOBER 2, 1988 overall sample size to 505. Figures based on this sample size are subject to a sampling error of ± 4.5 percent. or probable voters were interviewed. Some questions were asked of a slightly smaller subset of respondents = (n approximately 400), and are subject to a sampling error of ± 5 percent. RUTGERS Eaglefon Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 201/828-2210 --Democrat --Republican C --Independent 26 34 3 10 9 19 22 4 28 16 100 (135) 101 (156) 6 5 99 (152) En Bush 100 (224) --Dukakis 99 (179) Vote Choice VIEWERS ONLY 13 22 19 9 36 99 (355) TOTAL EXPOSED 13% 21% 18% 8% 41% 101% (463) Lot Little Little Lot Nobody Won DUKAKIS BUSH a lot or just a little?) Who do you think actually got the best of the debate--dukakis or Bush? (IF CHOICE MADE, PROBE: By ASKED ONLY OF ThOSE WHO WATCHED OR READ SOMETHING ABOUT THE DEBATE: Labeled as Total Exposed below. Bush 100 (242) --Dukakis 67 72 19 9 THE WAY! LtflVSW OF NB EPV 43 28 47 2 10 29 38 4 3 31 1.3 44 25 20 13 Vote Choice 100 (201) --Republican 7 Democrat Pani, Independent 20 7 22 7 100 (168) 100 (145) 61 73 21 18 100 (175) TOTAL 67% 21% 12% 100% (514) Viewed* But Read Nor Read Didn t View Neither Watched read or seen any news stories about Sunday s debate? Did you watch last Sunday s Presidential debate on TV or listen to it on the radio? IF NO, ASK Have you follows: of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in the population versus a!flic tae-icbgcr/eagleton POLL
Favorable Favorable Change Total More Less No TOTAL EXPOSED 26% 15% 59% 100% (383) VIEWERS ONLY 28 16 57 101 (293) MTCHAEL UUKAKTS Based on what you saw or heard about the debate, did your overall impression of (Michael Dukakis/George Bush) become more favorable, less favorable, or didn E your view of him change? --Republican 41 6 54 101 (116) --Democrat 15 27 59 101 (124) --Independent 19 20 61 100 (131) --Bush 39 3 57 99 (190) --Dukakis 6 38 56 100 (147) J7ore Choice VIEWERS ONLY 26 19 55 100 (293) TOTAL EXPOSED 24 17 58 99 (383) GEORGE BUSH --Republican 15 22 62 99 (116) --Democrat 39 9 52 100 (124) --Independent 22 16 62 100 (131) --Bush 7 27 66 100 (190) --Dukalds 52 1 46 99 (147) Vote Choice at/v-h - 2-
22 (favorable/unfavorable)? Next, how about... TOTAL 21% 32% 19% 15% 13% 100% (514) FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE No FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or only somewhat some just say so. First, how about do you have a fovorable or unfavorable impression of him? IF name please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression. If you don t have an opinion on SEPTEMBER 26-29 GEORGE BUSH Yi Somewhat Somewhat Yry Opinion Now I d like to get your general feelings about the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. For each --Republican 3 15 35 41 6 100 (145) --Democrat 34 42 7 6 11 100 (168) --Independent 11 33 20 19 16 99 (168) TOTAL 18 30 19 20 13 100 (505) MICHAEL DUKAKIS Pa --Republican 44 43 7 2 4 100 (145) --Democrat 4 17 26 40 13 100 (168) --Independent 15 39 23 10 14 101 (168) TOTAL 18 32 19 19 13 101 (505) GEORGE BUSH September 18-22 (Pre Dehate --Republican 4 14 35 35 12 100 (145) --Democrat 27 44 12 4 13 100 (175) --Independent 8 35 25 20 12 100 (168) Party TOTAL 13 33. 17 1.5 100 (514) MICHAEL DUKAKTS --Democrat 3 21 33 26 16 99 (175) --Independent 23 35 20 12 11 101 (168) --Republican 45 45 3 3 4 100 (145) Party L L u_ A A 4.iJL) - J
(
--Democrat 73 3 4 2 17 99 (168) and George Bush, the Republican; who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS OTHER, PROBE: INITIALLY UNDECIDED Chooses Leans to Pure Leans Chooses TOTAL September 26-29 40% 4% 6% 3% 47% 100% (497) Dukakis Dukakis Undecided to Bush Bush But if you had to choose only between Dukakis and Bush who would you vote for? ) If the election for President were held today and you had to choose between Michael Dukalds, the Democrat; Respondents saying they would not vote for President have been excluded from the table. --Republican 11 1 5 6 77 100 (164) --Democrat 83 4 6 0 7 100 (190) --Independent 49 6 6 4 36 101 (197) TOTAL--May, 1988 50 4 6 4 36 100 (570) Republican 5 2 0 2 91 100 (145) --Democrat 84 5 1 0 12 102% (167) --Independent 34 3 8 3 52 100 (166) TOTAL September 16-22 44 3 4 2 47 100 (505) DEBATE VIEWERS 40 2 5 3 50 100 (343) --Republican 5 0 1 4 90 100 (143) --Independent 34 5 7 3 51 100 (162) v- - La A )
(n) (201) (242) (212) (244) (187) (354) (287) (325) (279) (243) TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Might Change 28 24 20 29 22 22 30 29 20 22 Sure/Firm 72% 76% 80% 71% 78% 78% 70% 71% 80% 78% Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Mondale Reagan Carter Reagan Carter Ford Sent. 26-29. 1988 Sept. 16-22. 1988 Atrnust 1984 September 1980 September 1976 Are you very sure about your choice or do you think you might change your mind before election day? SEPTEMBER, 1980 55 28 18 0 101 (971) AUGUST, 1984 59 25 14 2 100 (638) --Dukakis 48 33 17 1 99 (212) --Bush 52 30 17 1 100 (244) j Vote Choice SEPTEMBER 16-fl, 1988 48 33 18 1 100 (505) --Bush 62 28 10 0 100 (242) --Dukakis 57 29 13 1 100 (201) Vote Choice SEPTEMBER 26-29, 1988 57% 30% 13% 1% ioiq 0 (514) LL Some Little/None No Opinion Total How much interest do you have in this election--a lot, some, a little or none at all? TM E[ lu-i. çsl/hr2u-2)