AMLO, the PRI, and the Frente: A Look at Mexico s 2018 Election November 16, 2017 Wilson Center. Washington, D.C. Jorge Buendía Director of Buendía & Laredo
RETROSPECTIVE EVALUATIONS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 95.4 97.2 98.9 94.9 100.0 95.7 98.0 91.2 90.3 90.5 90.6 91.1 91.3 92.2 91.3 92.5 88.9 88.9 88.7 88.2 84.5 85.0 83.8 68.5 Jan 2012 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2013 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2014 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2015 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2016 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2017 Abr Jul Oct Source: INEGI & BANXICO
COUNTRY S DIRECTION Generally speaking would you say things in Mexico are heading in the right direction or are they on the wrong direction? 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 FEB 2013 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2015 AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT Very good / somewhat good direction 44 43 38 33 33 39 24 28 21 21 23 23 16 14 10 12 12 18 24 Neither good nor right 22 25 27 26 28 24 27 19 26 15 18 20 16 15 13 13 14 11 12 Very wrong / somewhat wrong direction 33 31 34 40 39 36 48 52 51 63 58 56 67 70 76 74 74 69 64 % of NR/DK not shown
PEÑA NIETO S APPROVAL RATING In general, do you approve or disapprove the work that Enrique Peña Nieto is doing as president? Strongly or Somewhat? Strongly/somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Strongly/somewhat disapprove 74 73 56 55 55 33 34 29 50 37 46 44 48 40 46 45 50 41 53 53 40 37 57 35 51 42 56 32 63 29 61 32 66 25 19 21 69 68 28 25 62 30 14 11 10 13 10 10 7 8 8 6 7 7 11 8 7 8 7 5 6 2 6 FEB 2013 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2015 MAY AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL AUG NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT % of NR/DK not shown
POLITICAL PARTIES AND THE 2018 ELECTION
OPINION OF POLITICAL PARTIES (% OF POSITIVE OPINION) Now, I am going to read you a list with the name of political parties. Please tell me if you have a very good, good, bad or very bad opinion of each one of them. What is your opinion of? 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 FEB 2015 JUN AUG MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT PAN 24 27 30 25 30 34 30 30 29 29 35 32 PRI 26 25 24 26 21 22 20 18 19 18 25 27 PRD 19 16 17 20 20 23 21 21 23 22 25 27 MORENA 15 20 20 25 32 28 31 30 37 32 37 41
OPINION OF POLITICAL PARTIES (% OF NEGATIVE OPINION) Now, I am going to read you a list with the name of political parties. Please tell me if you have a very good, good, bad or very bad opinion of each one of them. What is your opinion of? 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 FEB 2015 JUN AUG MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT PAN 28 38 36 30 31 29 32 37 39 40 38 43 PRI 43 47 47 44 53 54 56 61 64 63 57 57 PRD 33 41 41 32 35 30 34 37 37 39 43 43 MORENA 23 33 32 21 26 25 25 28 21 29 32 31
REJECTION OF POLITICAL PARTIES For what party would you never vote? 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 JUN 2015 JUL 2016 SEP NOV MAR 2017 MAY AUG PAN 15 10 8 9 9 7 9 PRI 31 40 39 44 50 50 41 PRD 13 10 10 8 7 6 7 MORENA 6 11 9 11 9 10 14 OTHER 13 15 17 14 13 13 16
PARTY IDENTIFICATION 70 PEÑA NIETO BECOMES PRESIDENT 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2011 2012 FEB 2013 MAY AUG OCT NOV FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2015 JUN AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL AUG NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT Panistas 24 22 17 14 19 18 18 17 18 16 17 13 11 13 10 12 11 12 13 13 10 11 11 9 11 Priístas 30 33 30 37 33 37 29 31 29 34 30 31 19 18 20 20 17 17 16 15 13 10 11 14 15 Perredistas 7 12 13 14 12 14 8 10 11 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 3 6 3 4 4 5 3 3 De MORENA 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 9 8 10 Independents 37 32 37 32 32 26 40 38 38 38 41 43 56 52 56 56 59 57 55 58 64 66 61 59 56 % OF OTHER PARTIES NOT SHOWN. DATA FROM 2010 TO 2012 ARE ANNUAL AVERAGES.
POLL OF POLLS Dirichlet Dynamic Model Hurtado Bodell, M. (2016). Bayesian poll of polls for multi-party systems. POLL OF POLLS (INCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL POLL OF POLLS (EXCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL PAN PRI PRD MORENA NR 19% 18% 5% 20% 29% PAN PRI PRD MORENA 27% 25% 7% 28% PAN+PRD+MC = 26 PRI + PVEM + NA = 23 MORENA+ PT = 21 PAN+PRD+MC = 37 PRI + PVEM + NA = 32 MORENA+ PT = 30 Source: Javier Márquez Peña @JMarquezP
POLL OF POLLS Multinomial dynamic model with correlated errors Cargnoni, C., Müller, P., & West, M. (1997). Bayesian forecasting of multinomial time series through conditionally Gaussian dynamic models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92(438), 640-647.. POLL OF POLLS (INCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL POLL OF POLLS (EXCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL PAN PRI PRD MORENA NR 20% [17-22] 18% [14-22] PAN+PRD+MC = 28 PRI + PVEM + NA = 23 MORENA+ PT = 21 6% [4-8] 20% [15-26] 28% [22-34] PAN PRI PRD MORENA 27% [24-30] PAN+PRD+MC = 38 PRI + PVEM + NA = 32 MORENA+ PT = 29 25% [19-31] 8% [6-11] 27% [21-35] Source: Javier Márquez Peña @JMarquezP
NAME RECOGNITION Do you know or have you heard of? 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 AGO NOV MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AGO OCT Margarita Zavala 42 60 57 61 65 67 63 59 63 65 68 Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong 55 59 62 65 65 67 64 59 62 61 65 Miguel Ángel Mancera 54 61 59 66 63 65 65 59 60 63 67 Andrés Manuel López Obrador 95 96 94 97 96 97 97 86 96 96 93 Jaime Rodríguez 'El Bronco' 32 30 34 34 19 32 35 37 32 30 31 Ricardo Anaya 18 30 28 43 50 47 60 59 57 62 66
OPINION OF CANDIDATES (% of positive opinion) Please tell me if you have a very good, good, bad or very bad opinion of. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT Margarita Zavala 16 20 24 22 25 25 22 23 20 25 25 Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong 16 17 22 21 18 19 21 19 17 20 23 Miguel Ángel Mancera 20 18 21 19 20 20 18 17 17 23 28 Andrés Manuel López Obrador 32 33 36 36 36 38 36 35 37 38 42 Jaime Rodríguez 'El Bronco' 13 11 12 12 6 9 9 11 8 10 9 Ricardo Anaya 6 7 5 15 17 16 17 20 17 24 20
HEAD TO HEAD 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 Ricardo Anaya-PAN Ricardo Anaya-PRD Ricardo Anaya-MC M. A. Osorio Chong -PRI M. A. Osorio Chong-PVEM M. A. Osorio Chong-PANAL M. A. Osorio Chong-PES 5 2 3 2 1 15 15 ANAYA: PAN-PRD-MC 22% OSORIO: PRI-PVEM- PANAL-PES 21% Ricardo Anaya PAN-PRD-MC Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong PRI-PVEM Andrés Manuel López Obrador MORENA-PT 15 18 25 Ricardo Anaya PAN- PRD-MC Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong PRI-PVEM Andrés Manuel López Obrador MORENA-PT 21 21 22 AMLO-PT AMLO-MORENA 6 22 AMLO MORENA-PT 28% Margarita Zavala- Independet 12 Margarita Zavala- Independet 7 M. Zavala-Independent A. Ríos Piter-Independent J. Rodríguez "El Bronco"- Independent 1 2 9 Pedro Ferriz- Independent 7 Pedro Ferriz- Independent 5 María de Jesús "Marichuy"- Independent Pedro Ferriz-Independent 2 3 Not defined 23 No answer 24 No answer 12 SOURCE: BUENDÍA & LAREDO SOURCE: EL FINANCIERO SOURCE: CONSULTA MITOFSKY
HOW POLARIZED IS MEXICO
WORSE ELECTORAL SCENARIO Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for Mexico? 0 20 40 60 80 100 Difference* Panistas (11%) Priístas (15%) MORENAist (10%) Indep. (56%) That the PRI wins the election 55 +3 That the PRI wins the election 55 29 94 54 That Andrés Manuel López Obrador wins the election 32 0 That AMLO win the election 35 65 5 28 Both 8 0 Both 8 0 0 11 NR/DK 2 6 1 7 NR/DK 5-3 Total 100 100 100 100 *Difference with August survey
CLUSTER ANALYSIS Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for Mexico? (22.9%) (12.6%) (9%) (9.2%) (4.4%) (6.8%) (8.2%) (26.9%) AMLO Haters AMLO Haters- PRI Haters Not defined PRI Haters MORENA Lovers MORENA Haters- Positive AMLO Positive PRI- Positive AMLO AMLO Lovers
CLUSTER ANALYSIS DESCRIPTION Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for AMLO Mexico? Haters (22.9%) Opinion of López Obrador Bad (76%). Electoral preference Most of them vote PRI (34%). In second place, they vote PAN (22%). Potential vote 58% could vote PRI, 50% could vote PAN, and 93% would never vote MORENA. Party identification 54% is independent y 27% Priísta. AMLO LOVERS (26.9%) Opinion of López Obrador Good (99%). Electoral preference Most of them vote MORENA (63%). Potential vote 100% could vote MORENA, 45% could vote PAN, and 28% could vote PRI. Party identification 47% is independent y 28% MORENAist. MEDOID Sex: Woman Ages: 18-29 years Education: Junior High School Occupation: Working Internet: No access Opinion of Education Reform: No response Opinion of Energy Reform: Positive Peña Nieto s approval: Disapprove Country s direction: Wrong direction MEDOID Sex: Man Ages: 40-49 years Education: High school Occupation: Working Internet: With access Opinion of Education Reform : Positive Opinion of Energy Reform : Negative Peña Nieto s approval: Disapprove Country s direction: Wrong direction
RECOGNITION AND OPINION ABOUT REFORMS Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for Mexico? EDUCATION REFORM Recognition Positive Negative ENERGY REFORM Recognition Positive Negative 86 61 84 75 82 79 65 77 78 81 72 82 76 83 72 62 67 75 74 53 52 52 51 50 56 21 27 21 27 39 23 22 36 38 36 36 28 37 28 47 39 46 35 32 33 31 32 33 25 41 22 16 41 29 NOV 2013 FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV 2015 MAR 2016 AUG MAR 2017 OCT NOV 2013 FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV 2015 MAR 2016 AUG MAR 2017 OCT % of NR/DK not shown
OPINION OF REFORMS IS THERE POLARIZATION AROUND REFORMS? SUPPORT ENERGY SUPPORT EDUCATION AMLO HATERS AMLO LOVERS OPPOSE ENERGY OPPOSE EDUCATION 20 30 40 50 60 PERCENTAGE
1 The race is really close and there is a good chance it will continue to be close 2 This is a fertile ground for negative campaigning 3 The cleavages that structure electoral preferences right now are Continuity vs change (PRI vs no-pri) Postures towards AMLO 4 At this moment, policy polarization has not overlapped with candidate polarization (yet)