History of Immigration to Texas For most of its history, Texas has attracted settlers from the rest of the nation rather than abroad Mexican immigrants did not begin to settle permanently until late 1970s and 1980s Texas immigrant share of the population didn t surpass that of nation until late 1980s Immigration in 1980s was dominated by low-skilled workers Oil bust provided impetus for the diversification of Texas economy 1990s Texas attracted high-skilled immigrants
Large-Scale Immigration to Texas Is a Recent Phenomenon Foreign-Born Population Share by Decade Percent 18 16 14 12 Texas U.S. 10 8 6 4 2 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 SOURCES: Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: 1850 2000, by Campbell Gibson and Kay Jung, Population Division Working Paper no. 81, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006; 2010 American Community Survey.
Job growth by wage quartile and decade Percent 50 45 40 1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2011 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Lowest Wage Quartile Lower-Middle Wage Upper-Middle Wage Highest Wage Quartile Quartile Quartile NOTE: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages. Quartiles based on U.S. wage distribution in the 1980 decennial census, which refers to 1979 wages. Growth in 1999-2011 is multiplied by 10/12 for comparability. SOURCE: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census, 2012 American Community Survey.
Percent 30 Texas Metros Become Global Destinations Foreign-Born Population Share 25 20 15 10 El Paso Houston Dallas-Ft. Worth Austin San Antonio 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 SOURCES: 1970-2000 census; 2011 American Community Survey.
A Portrait of Texas Immigrants Today
Characteristics of Texas Immigrants Majority is from Mexico, followed by Asia and the rest of Latin America Came to the U.S. more recently than in the rest of the nation Likely to live in urban areas, especially Austin, DFW, and Houston Much more likely than U.S. natives to be in their prime working years Concentrated at the top and especially at the bottom of the education distribution Texas immigrants lag the nation s in schooling Higher employment rates than immigrants in the rest of the nation In some cases, they even out earn immigrations in the rest of the U.S. Work disproportionately in STEM occupations as well as laborintensive occupations such as construction and farm work
Where Are They From? Origins of Texas and U.S. Immigrants Texas Rest of U.S. 6 16 19 26 3 1 60 29 11 15 4 10 Mexico Central and South America Caribbean Africa Asia Europe, Canada, Oceania SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.
Texas Immigrants Are Concentrated in Urban Areas and Along Border Foreign-Born Population Share, by County Dallas/Fort Worth El Paso San Antonio Austin Houston SOURCE: 2007-11 American Community Survey five-year estimates.
Immigrants Tend to Be of Working Age Age Profile of Immigrants vs. Natives in Texas Age Over 80 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 4 15 10 5 0 5 10 SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates. U.S. Natives Immigrants 15 Percent
Percent 50 45 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Educational Attainment of Immigrants and Natives Inside and Outside Texas 30 Less than high school 23 19 High school credential Immigrants 15 Some college 19 12 16 Bachelor's degree 8 Texas 12 Graduate/ professional degree Rest of U.S. Percent 50 SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates. Calculations include individuals over age 24. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 12 11 Less than high school Natives 33 30 31 27 High school credential Some college 19 18 Bachelor's degree 9 10 Graduate/ professional degree
Texas Immigrants Do Well in the Labor Market Labor Force Participation Rate Less than high school credential Immigrants (percent) Texas U.S. natives (percent) Immigrants (percent) Rest of U.S. U.S. natives (percent) 64.8 43.2 59.2 35.6 High School credential 67.2 64.1 65.9 58.0 Some college 75.4 69.8 71.0 68.5 Bachelor s degree 72.5 77.4 72.5 76.1 Graduate/professional degree 84.3 77.1 78.8 75.7 NOTE: Calculated for the population over age 24. SOURCE: 2012 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotations Group data.
Texas Immigrants Do Well in the Labor Market Unemployment Rate Less than high school credential Immigrants (percent) Texas U.S. natives (percent) Immigrants (percent) Rest of U.S. U.S. natives (percent) 6.8 12.3 9.8 15.2 High School credential 6.9 6.0 7.7 8.2 Some college 4.5 5.5 8.0 7.0 Bachelor s degree 5.6 3.0 6.3 4.2 Graduate/professional degree 2.1 1.9 4.1 3.0 NOTE: Calculated for the population over age 24. SOURCE: 2012 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotations Group data.
Less than high school credential Low- and High-Skilled Immigrants Earn as Much or More in Texas Median Weekly Earnings Texas Rest of U.S. Immigrants U.S. natives Immigrants U.S. natives $401 $423 $399 $439 High school credential $460 $600 $499 $599 Some college $514 $685 $601 $682 Bachelor s degree $857 $997 $942 $997 Graduate/professional degree $1,435 $1,180 $1,342 $1,265 All groups $496 $757 $597 $767 All groups (including ages 16-24) $481 $677 $567 $678 NOTE: Median weekly earnings are deflated using the monthly CPI-W (December 2012=100) and are conditional on being employed, over age 24, with positive earnings. SOURCE: 2012 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotations Group data.
Low-Skilled Immigrants Concentrated in Services, Construction and Ag Jobs Gardeners and groundskeepers Construction laborers Housekeepers, maids, butlers Misc food prep workers Hairdressers and cosmetologists Farm workers Cooks, variously defined Janitors Kitchen workers Child care workers Mechanics Waiters and waitresses Motor vehicle operators Miners Timber, logging, and forestry workers Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Pest control occupations Foreign born as a percentage of Texas labor force with less than high school education 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent Note: Percentage of foreign-born Texas workers over age 24 with less than high school education for selected occupations. Source: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.
High-Skilled Immigrants Fill STEM Jobs Medical scientists Computer software developers Physicians Mathematicians Comp. analysts and scientists Mechanical engineers Pharmacists Chemical engineers High school and college instructors Registered nurses Biological scientists Chemists Dentists Economists, market and survey researchers Accountants and auditors Architects Managers and administrators Sales Related Actors, directors, producers Chief executives and public administrators Financial managers Biological technicians Lawyers/Judges Veterinarians Foreign born as a percentage of Texas labor force with college education or higher 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Note: Percentage of foreign-born Texas workers over age 24 with college education or higher for selected occupations. Source: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.
Illegal Immigration to Texas
Illegal Immigrants in Texas Americans were the first illegal immigrants to Texas In the early 20 th century: Chinese and Europeans Mexicans were exempt from the quotas and tests, in high demand The Bracero Program was created in 1942 to allow Mexican workers to take temporary agricultural jobs Texas was originally excluded, leading to illegal immigration No law against hiring unauthorized workers Today, 1.8 million unauthorized immigrants live in Texas 43 percent of the foreign-born population Public and political attitudes towards unauthorized immigrants are more moderate in Texas than in other states
Economic Effects of Immigration
Economic Effects Immigration increases the labor force, especially as U.S. native population ages more rapidly Native population benefits through lower prices of immigrant-produced goods and services, higher returns on capital and land Increased specialization leads to higher productivity Texas immigrants success does not appear to have come at natives expense Migration endogenous to growth, relieved bottlenecks and accompanied by capital inflows
Challenges Posed by Immigration
Challenges Posed by Immigration Immigrants more likely than natives to be poor, and the gap is larger in Texas However, poverty measures do not take into account Texas lower costs of living Fewer immigrants in Texas report speaking English well than in the rest of the nation Some fiscal costs for state and local government, such as public education Texas tax system reduces these costs, since all workers pay taxes on retail sales and on property Immigrants in Texas have slightly higher participation in TANF, SNAP, SSI and Medicaid Much less likely to have health coverage
Percent 25 Immigrant Poverty Rates Higher in Texas Poverty Rates by Nativity 20 Texas Rest of U.S. 15 10 5 0 Immigrant-Headed Households U.S. Native-Headed Households SOURCE: Current Population Surveys for March 2010-12.
Percent 40 Immigrant Welfare Participation Slightly Higher in Texas 35 30 Texas Rest of U.S. 25 20 15 10 5 0 Immigrant-Headed Households U.S. Native-Headed Households SOURCE: Current Population Surveys for March 2010-12.
Percent 100 Immigrant s Health Insurance Coverage Much Lower in Texas 90 80 Any Public Private 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Immigrants U.S. Natives Immigrants U.S. Natives Texas Rest of U.S. SOURCE: Current Population Surveys for March 2010-12.
Domestic Migration
Migration from Other States Texas has been the top destination for domestic migrants since 2006. Increased dramatically in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, began to outnumber international migration Skewed to high-skilled labor Migrants from other states are more likely than the Texas population to have a bachelor s, graduate, or professional degree Almost a quarter of domestic migrants come from California Texas has lost residents on net to only 10 states since 2005, mainly other energy states
Texas Is Top Destination for Domestic Migrants Since 2006 Net migration to Texas (thousands) 400 350 300 Domestic International Hurricane Katrina 250 200 150 100 50 0 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. NOTES: Census Bureau population estimates approximate the population on July 1 of the year indicated and thus capture changes from the previous year. Data are not available for decennial census years.
Percent 35 New Arrivals a Key Source of Skilled Workers Educational Attainment of New Arrivals 30 Domestic Migrants International Migrants Texas Population 25 20 15 10 5 0 Less Than High School Graduate High School Graduate NOTE: Calculations include individuals over age 24. SOURCE: 2010-2012 American Community Survey three-year estimates. Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree
California is Top Sending State for Migration to Texas Other 33% California 23% Florida 9% Tennessee 3% North Carolina 3% New Jersey 4% Arizona 4% SOURCE: 2006-12 American Community Survey. Alaska 4% Michigan 4% Illinois 6% New York 7%
What Texas Has Learned
Lessons from Decades of Immigration Texas economy has inherent strengths, such as natural resources, that set it apart Booms and busts of energy sector necessitate diversification People relocate to Texas due to abundant job opportunities, low cost of living, and relatively low tax burden Low-skilled workers come to Texas despite skimpy safety net and lower levels of public services Rapid economic growth generates labor inflow, and policy that does not take into account both supply and demand factors may become irrelevant
Texas Immigrants Do Well in the Labor Market Employment-to-population rate Less than high school credential Immigrants (percent) Texas U.S. natives (percent) Immigrants (percent) Rest of U.S. U.S. natives (percent) 60.4 37.9 53.4 30.1 High School credential 62.6 60.3 60.8 53.2 Some college 71.9 66.0 65.3 63.7 Bachelor s degree 68.4 75.0 68.0 72.9 Graduate/professional degree 82.6 75.7 75.6 73.4 NOTE: Calculated for the population over age 24. SOURCE: 2012 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotations Group data.
Immigration to Texas Got a Late Start Arrival Dates of Immigrants Since 2000 34 36 1990's 27 29 1980's 18 19 TX Rest of U.S. 1970's 11 11 Before 1970 6 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.
Immigrant s English Proficiency Lower in Texas Percent 40 35 30 Texas Rest of U.S. 25 20 15 10 5 0 Does Not Speak English Speaks English, Not Well Speaks English Well Speaks English Very Well Speaks Only English SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.
Title (TX QUARTILES) Job Growth by Decade in Texas Percent 60 50 1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2011 40 30 20 10 0 Lowest Wage Quartile Lower-Middle Wage Upper-Middle Wage Highest Wage Quartile Quartile Quartile NOTE: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages. Quartiles based on Texas wage distribution in the 1980 decennial census, which refers to 1979 wages. SOURCE: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census, 2012 American Community Survey.
Title Change in Employment 1979-2011 Percent 140 120 Texas U.S. Minus Texas 100 80 60 40 20 0 Lowest Wage Quartile Lower-Middle Wage Quartile Upper-Middle Wage Quartile Highest Wage Quartile NOTE: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages. Quartiles based on U.S. wage distribution in the1980 decennial census, which refers to 1979 wages. SOURCE: 1980 Census, 2012 American Community Survey.