The Budget Battle and AIG

The Budget Battle and AIG Democracy Corps

The surveys This presentation is based primarily on a national Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters (834 landline, 166 cell phone weighted; 880 landline, 120 cell phone unweighted) conducted March 25 through 29, 2009. Margin of error: 3.1 percent. Some data shown reflects results from 863 likely 2010 voters (871 unweighted; margin of error of 3.3 percent). Also included in this presentation as noted: Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters conducted March 5 through 8, 2009. Page 2 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

The Political Environment Page 3 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Right direction at 3-year high Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track 2006 55 60 63 67 56 61 2006 Election 61 63 66 59 58 62 66 66 Iraq surge 71 69 63 2008 70 72 66 68 75 72 Conventions 78 70 Financial Crisis 2008 Election 85 80 78 76 72 61 56 50 37 35 30 25 28 30 34 34 31 28 30 25 23 25 23 25 28 25 23 22 24 20 17 15 24 14 22 16 17 10 32 28 38 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Net -18-25 -33-42 -28-31 -30-25 -35-24 -41-32 -43-41-48-44 -35-47 -50-41 -44-52-58-63 -46-66 -75-62-59-50 -33-24 -12 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Data reflects likely voters. After 2008 election, data reflects likely 2010 voters. Page 4 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Voters still pessimistic about economy, but first signs of warming Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold state of the economy. Warm Cool Financial Crisis 2008 Election 2009 69 70 72 64 80 75 74 75 76 74 79 79 79 79 73 50 62 22 23 12 10 17 16 14 15 12 9 11 9 8 9 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 9 12 Net -52-54 -58-41 -10-59 -63-62 -70-67-63 Difference -70-71 -70-70 -61 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year. Data reflects likely voters. Page 5 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Democratic brand much more popular than Republican Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Therm. Mean Warm - Cool Cool Warm Barack Obama 27 61 63.5 +34 Democratic Party 38 44 50.9 +6 Democratic Congress 39 43 48.1 +4 Timothy Geithner, Secretary of Treasury 31 32 46.5 +1 Republican Party 44 31 43.1-13 Republicans in Congress 43 28 42.8-15 60 40 20 0 20 40 60

Democratic Party image holds solidly above Republican favorability Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Democratic Party Republican Party 54 51 53 52 51 51 53 52 54 53 53 49 52 48 52 50 Katrina 2006 50 50 49 49 47 48 48 47 47 46 46 45 Election 54 54 47 45 44 43 53 51 49 49 46 47 43 43 45 2008 Conventions 2008 52 Election 53 51 51 51 51 51 50 49 50 49 50 50 50 49 50 46 47 47 46 45 45 46 44 44 44 45 44 43 43 43 42 42 41 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 Net -3 Difference -1-2 +1 +1-4 -4-2 +3 +2 +3 +4 0 +2+3 +11 +9 +7+4+6+4+3+5+6+8+7+6+4+2+6+6+6+2+7+9+7+6+7 *Note: Data represents the MEAN ratings from Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past four years. After 2008 election, Data reflects 2010 likely voters. Page 7 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Political thermometer means Republican Party, Congress close Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. 2008 Election 63 62 2009 Inauguration 68 65 Barack Obama Democratic Party Democratic Congress Republican Party Republicans in Congress 62 63 59 56 53 52 46 44 42 48 46 45 52 53 52 50 51 50 48 51 43 45 46 49 49 44 47 43 42 46 45 45 43 43 41 42 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 *Note: Data represents the MEAN ratings from Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past five months. After 2008 election, data reflects 2010 likely voters. Page 8 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Congressional vote I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Lean Democratic Lean Republican 48 48 42 43 45 44 39 40 Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate All 2008 Voters Likely 2010 Voters In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic.

Democratic congressional candidates remain favored I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 50 2008 2008 Financial Election Crisis 51 51 51 52 51 51 52 53 50 51 53 53 52 52 54 51 50 50 50 51 44 43 2009 48 45 43 43 42 42 43 43 42 41 42 42 42 41 40 41 42 40 41 43 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Net +8 Difference +8 +11 +10 +9 +10 +9+7 +11 +10 +13 +12 +10 +8 +8 +5 +10+15+7+8 +5 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last two years. Data represents likely voters only. Question asked with candidate names; generic party candidate inserted in open and unchallenged seats and where candidates weren t yet established.

Obama s Standing Page 11 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Obama s favorability remains high 50 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Barack Obama. 34 New Hampshire Primary 38 39 38 38 37 41 42 43 36 36 33 36 37 35 47 46 44 44 42 42 39 46 49 47 41 38 37 50 49 41 38 Cool Financial Crisis 2008 Election Conventions 54 39 59 54 Warm 2009 62 58 29 60 28 21 25 28 28 26 20 17 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Net +17 +17 +14 +10 +2 +1 +8 +6 +6 +12 +7 +2 +2 +8 Difference +12 +6 +12 +8 +15 +31 +28 +37+29+32 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last two years. After 2008 election, data represents likely 2010 voters only. Page 12 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Obama job approval high, disapproval stabilizes at 35 percent Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Inauguration 53 57 58 57 55 55 35 35 19 19 20 27 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys over the past several months. Before inauguration, question read: Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect? Data represents likely 2010 voters. Page 13 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Obama approval by party Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Strongly Disaapprove Somew hat Disapprove Strongly Approve Somew hat Approve All Voters 34 26 41 58 Republicans 68 53 9 23 Independents 40 31 27 49 Democrats 4 76 92 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 Page 14 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Obama s pretty extraordinary attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not well at all Not too well Very well Well Willing to work with both parties Strong leader Makes me feel hopeful about the future Keeps his promises Has good plans for the economy On your side Has realistic solutions to the country s problems Will raise my taxes Too liberal Is a typical politician Promises things that sound good, won t be able to get done Can t break the gridlock in Washington Fiscally irresponsible Out of touch 67 57 35 40 45 44 48 50 50 35 34 25 26 29 37 39 22 24 27 19 19 21 20 21 21 13 16 14 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 19 22 19 28 31 29 30 27 26 32 39 40 35 44 32 62 59 52 50 49 47 44 40 65 63 63 74 72

Obama positive attribute shifts since inauguration Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Willing to work with both parties Strong leader Makes me feel hopeful about the future Keeps his promises On your side Has realistic solutions for the country s problems *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey conducted Jan. 26-29, 2009 of 1,000 likely voters. March wave represents likely 2010 voters only. Mar. 30 Jan. 29 Mar. 30 Jan. 29 Mar. 30 Jan. 29 Mar. 30 Jan. 29 Mar. 30 Jan. 29 Mar. 30 Jan. 29 Not well at all Not too well Very well Well 27 26 18 18 36 30 31 21 35 30 42 31 14 39 7 48 17 43 8 45 19 40 14 43 15 28 7 27 21 34 15 35 21 31 14 30 71 79 71 76 63 67 62 61 62 65 57 65 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Obama negative attribute shifts since inauguration Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not well at all Not too well Very well Well Typical politician Mar. 30 Jan. 29 46 50 22 25 28 25 51 47 Will raise my taxes Mar. 30 Jan. 29 46 41 24 16 30 29 51 53 Too liberal Mar. 30 Jan. 29 45 50 21 23 31 25 50 44 Promises things that sound good, but won t be able to get them done Mar. 30 Jan. 29 48 45 26 19 28 26 48 49 Can t break the gridlock in Washington *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey conducted Jan. 26-29, 2009 of 1,000 likely voters. March wave represents likely 2010 voters only. Mar. 30 Jan. 29 51 43 22 16 18 16 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 43 45

Obama attributes Now I m going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well or not well at all 100 75 50 Strong leader 60 53 Will raise my taxes 61 55 51 52 51 51 51 50 59 58 5453 5453 51 49 On your side 49 Financial Crisis 58 56 54 55 53 50 First Debate Makes me hopeful about future Second Debate 62 6159 57 54 46 Third Debate 2008 Election 65 62 52 5258 49 48 49 49 Inauguration 76 67 65 53 44 Too Liberal 71 63 62 51 50 25 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year. Shows percentage saying total well. After election day, show 2010 likely voters. Page 18 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

The Budget Battle: Voters Agree With Obama Approach Page 19 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

More support for Obama s budget when tied to long-term growth As you may have heard, President Obama recently released his plan for the federal budget (and long-term growth). From what you have heard about Obama's budget plan (for long-term growth), do you favor or oppose it? Strongly favor Strongly oppose Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose 52 58 55 40 35 37 26 34 29 30 27 28 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Budget Plan Budget Plan with longterm growth Combined

Independents split on the budget (combined data) As you may have heard, President Obama recently released his plan for the federal budget (and long-term growth). From what you have heard about Obama's budget plan (for long-term growth), do you favor or oppose it? Strongly oppose Strongly support Somew hat oppose Somew hat support All Voters 37 28 30 55 Republicans 72 56 8 21 Independents 46 33 17 46 Democrats 5 55 87 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 *Note: Shows combined data for budget plan and budget plan with long-term growth.

Budget plan wins votes when tied to long-term growth If your Representative in Congress voted in favor of President Obama's budget plan (for long-term growth), would it make you more or less likely to support your Representative for reelection it two years, or does it make no difference? Much more likely Somewhat more likely Much less likely Somehwat less likely No difference +0 more likely +7 more likely +3 more likely 30 30 37 35 28 33 32 29 35 21 17 18 19 20 18 More likely Less likely No difference Budget Plan More likely Less likely No difference Budget Plan with longterm growth More likely Less likely No difference Combined

Voters strongly agree Obama agenda connected to economy Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: Our problems with energy, health care and the economy are all connected; dealing with health care costs and building a clean energy economy are a fundamental part of ensuring our long-term prosperity. Second Statement: Health care and energy are separate issues from the economy, and we should wait to tackle health care or energy reform until we have gotten the economy back on track. First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 59 51 32 39 +20 Republicans 37 26 53 62-25 Independents 52 49 32 41 +11 Democrats 80 72 15 19 +61 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Voters strongly seek big agenda, not just economy Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: The challenges America faces are too big to ignore. President Obama is right to seek solutions on health care, energy and education while still making the economy his top priority. Second Statement: President Obama is trying to do too much. He should put his entire focus on the economy and deal with health care, energy and education when we're through this crisis. First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 63 56 26 33 +30 Republicans 39 29 41 56-17 Independents 61 54 30 35 +26 Democrats 85 78 12 13 +72 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

To balance budget, investments strongly preferred over spending cuts Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: In order to balance the budget in the long-term, it is more important to make investments that will lead to new jobs and industries and create economic growth. Second Statement: In order to balance the budget in the long-term, it is more important to limit the amount government spends on costly new programs. First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 61 52 33 37 +24 Republicans 35 28 57 63-28 Independents 53 40 40 44 +9 Democrats 87 77 9 12 +75 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Obama keeping promises, not new radical agenda Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: President Obama is governing as he promised during the campaign: trying to deliver big changes on issues like health care, energy and taxes. Second Statement: President Obama campaigned as a moderate, but now he is trying to implement a radical liberal agenda on issues like health care, energy and taxes. First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 60 51 28 36 +24 Republicans 28 20 53 69-41 Independents 57 41 30 38 +19 Democrats 88 81 9 10 +78 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Voters agree with Obama: broad agenda needed to fix the economy Now let me read you a pair of statements that describe what President Obama and some of his critics are saying about his budget plan. After I read these statements, please tell me which one you agree with more. Must deal with health care, energy to fix economy Obama Stmnt Smwht Obama Stmnt Strong Must focus on economy, other issues should wait Critics Stmnt Smwht Critics Stmnt Strong President Obama says we can only end the bubble-bust cycle of the past and lay the groundwork for true long-term prosperity by attacking the problems that have dragged the economy down for too long: reforming health care to bring down costs for business and consumers and making American the leader in renewable energy so the jobs and industries of the future are built right here, not in China or India. 60 45 Total Obama Statement Obama's critics say that dealing with the economy has to be Job One. The only priority right now should be to pulling us out of this economic death spiral and start creating jobs again by solving the financial crisis. But Obama has lost focus by concentrating on other priorities like health care and global warming. Those may be worthy goals, but they need to be put on hold until we're through this crisis. 36 23 Total Critics' Statement

Voters agree with Obama: broad agenda needed to fix the economy Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Obama Statement: Must deal with health care, energy to fix economy Critics Statement: Must focus on economy, wait on other issues First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 60 45 23 36 +24 Republicans 36 19 40 59-23 Independents 55 41 25 42 +13 Democrats 82 68 9 16 +66 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Budget Messaging Page 29 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Tax-code rebalancing top argument for budget plan Now let me read you some statements that some people make in support of Obama's budget plan. After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH MORE LIKELY to support the budget plan, SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE MORE LIKELY, NO MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to support the budget plan? Rebalances tax code so wealthy, corporations pay fair share Smwht more likely Much more likely This plan rebalances our tax code so the 63 middle class pays less in taxes and the wealthiest pay their fair share after getting so many 45 breaks for so long. It cuts taxes for small businesses and 95 percent of working families while asking the very wealthy and big corporations to pay their fare share. Much/Somewhat more likely Plan will build firm economic foundation This plan will end the bubble-bust cycle of the past, build a firm economic foundation and lead to real and lasting prosperity by attacking the problems that have dragged the economy down for too long: reforming health care to bring down costs for business and consumers and making America the leader in renewable energy so the jobs and industries of the future are built right here. Smwht more likely Much more likely 52 35 Much/Somewhat more likely Republicans only offer more of the same This plan ends the Bush-era economic policies of tax breaks for corporations, special interests and the very wealthy that got us into this financial mess. But Republicans are lining up against this budget and have even offered an alternative plan that doubles down on Bush-style economics by cutting taxes for CEOs by 1.5 million dollars. We need new policies, not more of the same. Smwht more likely Much more likely 52 29 Much/Somewhat more likely

Pro-budget plan arguments: second tier Now let me read you some statements that some people make in support of Obama's budget plan. After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH MORE LIKELY to support the budget plan, SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE MORE LIKELY, NO MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to support the budget plan? Plan ends breaks for CEOs This budget puts an end to the massive tax breaks for CEOs and the very wealthy that allowed executives from corporations like AIG to prosper while working Americans suffered. It ends the Bush-era tax loopholes and subsidies for hedge fund managers, CEOs and oil companies and, instead, cuts taxes for 95 percent for working families. Smwht more likely Much more likely 50 37 Much/Somewhat more likely Plan returns to Clinton/Reagan tax/spending levels Opponents of this plan say it raises taxes and increases spending, but it cuts taxes for the middle class and only returns rates for the wealthiest Americans to where they were during the 1990s. And this budget actually spends less than we did during the Reagan administration. This is a responsible plan that will help rebuild our economy by making the long-term investments we need. Smwht more likely Much more likely 50 25 Much/Somewhat more likely Republicans offer no alternatives This plan will get our economy moving again by cutting the deficit and investing in health care, energy independence and our schools. But Republicans have offered nothing but blind opposition and partisan attacks - they have offered no ideas and no plan of their own to restore the economy. In this moment of enormous challenge we need real solutions, not partisan attacks. Smwht more likely Much more likely 49 33 Much/Somewhat more likely

Geithner s bailouts President Obama's treasury secretary Timothy Geithner is a Wall Street insider who helped engineer the bailout for AIG and wrote the law protecting their bonuses. Obama and Geithner have asked for even more money to bail out the Wall Street banks and now this budget adds to these wasteful giveaways by increasing government spending to the highest levels seen in decades. Smwht less likely Much less likely 50 35 Much/Somewhat less likely Billions in bailouts for banks, autos and AIG strongest attack on budget Now let me read you some statements that some people make in opposition Obama's budget plan. After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH LESS LIKELY to support the budget plan, SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, NO LESS LIKELY or MORE LIKELY to support the budget plan? Bailouts and spending President Obama has already approved spending over 700 billion dollars in taxpayer dollars to bail out the financial and auto industries, including almost 200 billion for AIG. Now, this budget adds to these giveaways by increasing government spending to the highest levels seen in decades. Between bailouts and spending we're wasting trillions of dollars we can't afford. Smwht less likely Much less likely 51 38 Much/Somewhat less likely Budget offers too much debt This budget doubles our national debt in five years and triples it in ten. It creates more debt than every president from George Washington to George Bush combined while making us more dependent on nations like China to fund our debt, threatening the value of our currency and our financial security. If we maintain the deficits in this budget the country will simply go bankrupt. Smwht less likely Much less likely 49 32 Much/Somewhat less likely

Anti-budget plan arguments second tier Now let me read you some statements that some people make in opposition Obama's budget plan. After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH LESS LIKELY to support the budget plan, SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, NO LESS LIKELY or MORE LIKELY to support the budget plan? Too much taxes/spending This budget spends too much and it taxes too much. It includes the largest tax increase in American history with trillions in new taxes on the middle class and small businesses, including a giant new tax on energy. And after already passing the trilliondollar stimulus bill and another 400 billion-dollar spending bill, this plan increases spending to the highest level since World War II. Smwht less likely Much less likely 48 35 Much/Somewhat less likely Budget not for liberal priorities Dealing with the economy should be Job One for the president. But instead of focusing on fixing the financial crisis and getting the economy back on track, this plan is trying to use the crisis to push through liberal priorities like government-run health care and a new energy tax. Obama should use his budget to focus on fixing the economy not to push his liberal agenda. Smwht less likely Much less likely 40 26 Much/Somewhat less likely Obama and budget out of touch While our economy is in crisis President Obama is busy appearing on ESPN, attending cocktail parties and jetting off to the Jay Leno show. We need a leader to make the tough choices to get our economy back on track, but the president and his budget are out of touch with the problem at hand. Smwht less likely Much less likely 37 27 Much/Somewhat less likely

After simulated debate, small shift against budget plan Now let me ask you again, if your Representative in Congress voted in favor of President Obama's budget plan, would it make you more or less likely to support your Representative for reelection it two years, or does it make no difference? Much more likely Somewhat more likely Much less likely Somehwat less likely No difference -4 +0-4 30 30 37 30 34 35 17 21 16 23 More likely Less likely No difference More likely Less likely No difference Initial Final Page 34 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

After simulated debate, small shift against budget, long-term growth plan Now let me ask you again, if your Representative in Congress voted in favor of President Obama's budget plan for long-term growth, would it make you more or less likely to support your Representative for reelection it two years, or does it make no difference? Much more likely Somewhat more likely Much less likely Somehwat less likely No difference -5 +7 +2 35 28 33 33 31 35 18 19 21 22 More likely Less likely No difference More likely Less likely No difference Initial Final Page 35 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Small shift against budget and long-term growth plan (combined data) Now let me ask you again, if your Representative in Congress voted in favor of President Obama's budget plan (for long-term growth), would it make you more or less likely to support your Representative for reelection it two years, or does it make no difference? Much more likely Somewhat more likely Much less likely Somehwat less likely No difference -4 +3-1 32 29 31 32 35 35 18 20 19 22 More likely Less likely No difference More likely Less likely No difference Initial Final *Note: Shows combined data for budget plan and budget plan with long-term growth. Page 36 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

AIG Page 37 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

AIG management, Treasury seen as more responsibly for AIG bonuses Now I'd like to ask you something a little different, as you may have heard the American International Group, the firm known as AIG, recently gave out bonuses to some of their executives after receiving a 170 billion dollar government bailout. Of the following people and institutions, which TWO do you think are most to blame for AIG giving out these bonuses? AIG Management 58 Treasury Department and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner 31 Former President George Bush 24 Democrats in Congress 21 Republicans in Congress 13 President Barack Obama 10 The Federal Reserve 6 0 20 40 60

AIG raises doubts about Geithner, not Obama Now, I am going to read you a list of people and institutions and for each I want you to tell me, using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means no doubts and 10 means extreme doubts, how much doubt the recent announcement of AIG and other companies giving bonuses to their employees has caused you to have in that person or institution? Extreme Doubts (10 rating) Doubts (6-9 rating) MEAN Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner 24 49 5.9 The Democrats in Congress 22 44 5.5 The Republicans in Congress 21 38 5.2 President Barack Obama 19 36 4.5 0 20 40 60

AIG shows need for tighter regulation AND government s ineptitude Now let me read you a statement. AIG's use of bailout money to pay out bonuses to its executives shows that we need tighter government regulation of the financial industry. Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Now let me read you a statement. AIG's use of bailout money to pay out bonuses to its executives shows that the federal government is incapable of preventing this kind of wasteful spending of the taxpayers' money. Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Strongly agree Strongly disagree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly agree Strongly disagree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 69 56 56 40 29 35 18 26 Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Page 40 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

AIG s scandal has negative impact on support for Obama s budget Has the recent announcement that AIG paid bonuses to their executives made you less likely to support President Obama's plan for the federal budget, more likely to support President Obama's plan for the federal budget or has it not affected your support for President Obama's plan for the budget? More likely Less likely Not affected 73 57 55 57 30 35 37 19 12 6 8 5 All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans Page 41 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Special Issues Page 42 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Afghanistan a conundrum Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: The U.S. is making progress in Afghanistan. Second Statement: The U.S. is losing ground in Afghanistan. First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 44 26 25 41 +3 Republicans 55 37 18 31 +24 Independents 38 20 27 41-3 Democrats 39 22 29 49-10 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Afghanistan and Iraq comparison First Statement: The U.S. is making progress in Afghanistan. Second Statement: The U.S. is losing ground in Afghanistan. First Statement: The U.S. is making progress in Iraq. Second Statement: The U.S. is losing ground in Iraq. First statement strongly Second statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement somewhat +4 +11 45 41 52 41 26 25 34 32 First Statement Second Statement First Statement Second Statement Afghanistan, April 2009 Post-Surge Iraq, 2007 *Note: 2007 Iraq data from Democracy Corps national survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted December 14-17, 2007. Data shows likely voters only. Page 44 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Voters agree that human actions cause of global warming Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: Global warming is caused more by human actions than by naturally occurring forces. Second Statement: Global warming is caused more by naturally occurring forces than by human actions. First Statement Strongly First Statement Somewhat Second Statement Strongly Second Statement Somewhat First Second All Voters 59 48 27 34 +25 Republicans 37 27 43 56-19 Independents 54 44 31 39 +15 Democrats 80 66 12 15 +65 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Cause of global warming argument sees little shift in 3 years Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: Global warming is caused more by human actions than by naturally occurring forces. Second Statement: Global warming is caused more by naturally occurring forces than by human actions. First Statement Second Statement 61 61 59 34 34 30 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Net +27 +31 +25 Difference Page 46 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

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