National Tracking Poll Project: 190452 N Size: 1992 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report April 19-21, 2019 P1 Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 735 37% Wrong Track 1257 63% Q172 Q172NET P3 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve 389 20% Somewhat Approve 380 19% Somewhat Disapprove 246 12% Strongly Disapprove 886 45% Don t Know / No Opinion 90 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve 769 39% Total Dissaprove 1133 57% Don t Know / No Opinion 90 5% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues like taxes, wages, jobs, 492 25% unemployment, and spending Security Issues like terrorism, foreign policy, and 394 20% border security Health Care Issues like the 2010 health care law, 342 17% Medicaid, other challenges Seniors Issues like Medicare and Social Security 307 15% Women s Issues like birth control, abortion, and equal 105 5% pay Education Issues like school standards, class sizes, 146 7% school choice, and student loans Energy Issues like carbon emissions, cost of 116 6% electricity/gasoline, or renewables Other: 90 5% Page 1
POL1 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2020 presidential primary or caucus in your state? Absolutely certain to vote 1408 71% Very likely 280 14% About 50-50 185 9% Not too likely 48 2% Not likely at all 71 4% POL2 POL3 POL4 POL5 Now, thinking about the 2020 presidential primary or caucus in your state, would you vote in the Democratic primary or caucus, the Republican primary or caucus, or are you not likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all? (N=1,873) Vote in Democratic primary or caucus 836 45% Vote in Republican primary or caucus 641 34% Not likely to vote in primary or caucus 107 6% Don t know / No opinion 289 15% Do you think the Republican party should nominate Donald Trump as the party s candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? (N=641) Strongly support Trump s nomination 372 58% Somewhat support Trump s nomination 132 21% Somewhat support a different candidate s nomination 59 9% Strongly support a different candidate s nomination 56 9% Don t know / No opinion 22 4% If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? (N=641) President Trump 502 78% Bill Weld 45 7% Don t know / No opinion 94 15% If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or definitely vote for someone else? Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump 471 24% Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump 200 10% Probably vote for someone else 153 8% Definitely vote for someone else 970 49% Would not vote 38 2% Don t know / No opinion 161 8% Page 2
POL6 If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote? Donald Trump 681 34% Joe Biden 827 42% Would not vote 102 5% Don t know / No opinion 382 19% POL7 POL8_1 POL8_2 POL8_3 POL8_4 POL8_5 POL8_6 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate 906 45% Republican candidate 687 34% Would not vote 50 3% Don t know / No opinion 348 17% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress 749 38% Republicans in Congress 817 41% Don t know / No opinion 426 21% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress 749 38% Republicans in Congress 831 42% Don t know / No opinion 411 21% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress 937 47% Republicans in Congress 629 32% Don t know / No opinion 426 21% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress 835 42% Republicans in Congress 779 39% Don t know / No opinion 379 19% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress 1035 52% Republicans in Congress 486 24% Don t know / No opinion 471 24% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress 896 45% Republicans in Congress 615 31% Don t know / No opinion 481 24% Page 3
POL8_7 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress 941 47% Republicans in Congress 587 29% Don t know / No opinion 464 23% POL8_8 POL8_9 POL8_10 POL8_11 POL9_1 POL9_2 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress 703 35% Republicans in Congress 885 44% Don t know / No opinion 404 20% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress 922 46% Republicans in Congress 474 24% Don t know / No opinion 597 30% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress 826 41% Republicans in Congress 750 38% Don t know / No opinion 416 21% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Protecting Medicare and Social Security Democrats in Congress 964 48% Republicans in Congress 583 29% Don t know / No opinion 445 22% Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority 1056 53% An important, but lower priority 525 26% Not too important a priority 144 7% Should not be done 79 4% Don t know / No opinion 189 9% Passing a bill to address climate change A top priority 763 38% An important, but lower priority 492 25% Not too important a priority 318 16% Should not be done 240 12% Don t know / No opinion 179 9% Page 4
POL9_3 Passing a bill to reduce economic inequality A top priority 577 29% An important, but lower priority 605 30% Not too important a priority 315 16% Should not be done 252 13% Don t know / No opinion 244 12% POL9_4 POL9_5 POL9_6 POL9_7 Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority 722 36% An important, but lower priority 720 36% Not too important a priority 215 11% Should not be done 40 2% Don t know / No opinion 296 15% Beginning impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office A top priority 576 29% An important, but lower priority 247 12% Not too important a priority 180 9% Should not be done 766 38% Don t know / No opinion 223 11% Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority 884 44% An important, but lower priority 599 30% Not too important a priority 221 11% Should not be done 75 4% Don t know / No opinion 213 11% Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority 537 27% An important, but lower priority 253 13% Not too important a priority 232 12% Should not be done 814 41% Don t know / No opinion 155 8% Page 5
POL9_8 Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority 611 31% An important, but lower priority 611 31% Not too important a priority 243 12% Should not be done 318 16% Don t know / No opinion 210 11% POL9_9 POL9_10 POL9_11 POL10 Reducing the federal budget deficit A top priority 900 45% An important, but lower priority 703 35% Not too important a priority 153 8% Should not be done 41 2% Don t know / No opinion 195 10% Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority 712 36% An important, but lower priority 430 22% Not too important a priority 225 11% Should not be done 452 23% Don t know / No opinion 174 9% Regulation of tech companies A top priority 317 16% An important, but lower priority 713 36% Not too important a priority 518 26% Should not be done 151 8% Don t know / No opinion 294 15% How much have you seen, read, or heard about the release of a redacted version of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election? A lot 631 32% Some 682 34% Not Much 376 19% Nothing at all 303 15% Page 6
POL11_1 Thinking about Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interreference in the 2016 election, did you do any of the following? Followed news coverage of the report (N=1,689) Yes 1229 73% No 341 20% Don t know / No opinion 119 7% POL11_2 POL12 POL13 POL14 Thinking about Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interreference in the 2016 election, did you do any of the following? Read any of the redacted version of the report (N=1,689) Yes 468 28% No 1094 65% Don t know / No opinion 128 8% Do you think the Department of Justice s investigation into Russia s influence on the 2016 presidential election was handled fairly or unfairly? Very fairly 451 23% Somewhat fairly 465 23% Not too fairly 261 13% Not fairly at all 313 16% Don t know / No opinion 502 25% Do you think President Trump s campaign worked with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election? Yes, I think President Trump s campaign worked with 816 41% Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. No, I don t think President Trump s campaign worked 816 41% with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Don t know / No opinion 361 18% And do you think President Trump tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia? Yes, I think President Trump tried to impede or 942 47% obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. No, I don t think President Trump tried to impede or 686 34% obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. Don t know / No opinion 363 18% Page 7
POL15 To what extent do you think Attorney General William Barr accurately described the contents of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report before a redacted version was released to the public? Very accurately 288 14% Somewhat accurately 356 18% Not too accurately 273 14% Not accurately at all 372 19% Don t know / No opinion 703 35% POL16 POL17 POL18 POL19 How likely do you think it is that Russia has compromising information on President Trump? Very likely 609 31% Somewhat likely 407 20% Not very likely 269 14% Not likely at all 323 16% Don t know / No opinion 383 19% When it comes to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, whose version of the facts are you most likely to accept? Donald Trump s version 456 23% Robert Mueller s version 924 46% Don t know / No opinion 612 31% Based on what you know, did Special Counsel Robert Mueller find any evidence that President Donald Trump or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election? Yes, Mueller found evidence that President Trump or 550 28% his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election. No, Mueller did not find evidence that President Trump 852 43% or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion 589 30% Based on what you know, did Special Counsel Robert Mueller find any evidence that President Donald Trump tried to impede or obstruct the probe into Russian interreference in the 2016 election? Yes, Mueller found evidence that President Trump tried 741 37% to impede or obstruct the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. No, Mueller did not find evidence that President Trump 676 34% tried to impede or obstruct the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion 575 29% Page 8
POL20 Which of the following comes closest to your understanding of the results of Robert Mueller s Special Counsel Investigation, even if none is exactly right? Mueller found that President Trump obstructed the 389 20% investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election Mueller found that President Trump did not obstruct 324 16% the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mueller did not make a determination on whether 733 37% President Trump obstructed the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion 546 27% POL21 POL22_1 POL22_2 Based on what you know, do you approve of the way Attorney General William Barr has handled the release of information from Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, or do you disapprove? Strongly approve 294 15% Somewhat approve 313 16% Somewhat disapprove 276 14% Strongly disapprove 455 23% Don t know / No opinion 655 33% Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Attorney General William Barr s primary goal in releasing information from the Mueller report has been to inform the American people of the special counsel s findings. Strongly agree 406 20% Somewhat agree 432 22% Somewhat disagree 220 11% Strongly disagree 406 20% Don t know / No opinion 528 27% Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Attorney General William Barr s primary goal in releasing information from the Mueller report has been to limit scrutiny of President Trump s actions. Strongly agree 518 26% Somewhat agree 386 19% Somewhat disagree 211 11% Strongly disagree 255 13% Don t know / No opinion 622 31% Page 9
POL23 Knowing what you know now about the Mueller investigation, do you have a more or less favorable view of Donald Trump? Much more favorable 306 15% Somewhat more favorable 296 15% Somewhat less favorable 231 12% Much less favorable 707 35% Don t know / No opinion 453 23% POL24 POL25 POL26 Knowing what you know now about the Mueller investigation, did your opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s investigation into Russian influence get better, get worse, or did it not change at all? My opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s 307 15% investigation into Russian influence got better. My opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s 307 15% investigation into Russian influence got worse. My opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s 807 41% investigation into Russian influence did not change at all. Don t know / No opinion 571 29% To what extent do you support or oppose a federal investigation into the Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Mueller s Russia investigation? Strongly support 433 22% Somewhat support 335 17% Somewhat oppose 228 11% Strongly oppose 438 22% Don t know / No opinion 558 28% Would you say the conclusions from Special Counsel Robert Mueller s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election will impact whether or not you will vote for President Trump in the 2020 presidential election? Yes, I am more likely to vote for President Trump in 301 15% 2020 Yes, I am less likely to vote for President Trump in 2020 460 23% No, the conclusions from the investigation will not 939 47% impact whether or not I vote for President Trump in 2020 Don t know / No opinion 293 15% Page 10
POL27_1 Forcing President Trump to release his tax returns A top priority 691 35% An important, but lower priority 287 14% Not too important a priority 277 14% Should not be done 494 25% Don t know / No opinion 243 12% POL27_2 POL27_3 POL27_4 POL27_5 Investigating President Trump s business interests and arrangements to determine whether they are conflicting with his duties as president A top priority 746 37% An important, but lower priority 299 15% Not too important a priority 271 14% Should not be done 422 21% Don t know / No opinion 253 13% Investigating the firing of former FBI Director James Comey A top priority 451 23% An important, but lower priority 476 24% Not too important a priority 346 17% Should not be done 406 20% Don t know / No opinion 312 16% Investigating Cabinet secretary spending, including on travel and office furnishings A top priority 510 26% An important, but lower priority 584 29% Not too important a priority 403 20% Should not be done 212 11% Don t know / No opinion 283 14% Investigating the process leading to Trump s executive order on a travel ban affecting predominantly Muslim nations A top priority 479 24% An important, but lower priority 484 24% Not too important a priority 300 15% Should not be done 437 22% Don t know / No opinion 293 15% Page 11
POL27_6 Investigating the Trump administration s Puerto Rico hurricane response A top priority 492 25% An important, but lower priority 451 23% Not too important a priority 342 17% Should not be done 437 22% Don t know / No opinion 271 14% POL27_7 POL27_8 POL27_9 POL27_10 Investigating President Trump s family separation policy regarding migrants and the handling of unaccompanied minors A top priority 695 35% An important, but lower priority 379 19% Not too important a priority 256 13% Should not be done 391 20% Don t know / No opinion 271 14% Investigating the process for how Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump obtained security clearances A top priority 570 29% An important, but lower priority 421 21% Not too important a priority 339 17% Should not be done 368 18% Don t know / No opinion 295 15% Investigating President Trump s phone security, including whether Chinese and Russian spies are listening to his phone calls A top priority 756 38% An important, but lower priority 449 23% Not too important a priority 253 13% Should not be done 263 13% Don t know / No opinion 271 14% Investigating President Trump s alleged affairs and payments to silence women A top priority 499 25% An important, but lower priority 407 20% Not too important a priority 306 15% Should not be done 539 27% Don t know / No opinion 242 12% Page 12
POL27_11 Investigating some of President Trump s campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 election A top priority 654 33% An important, but lower priority 384 19% Not too important a priority 266 13% Should not be done 404 20% Don t know / No opinion 285 14% POL28 POL29 POL30 Which of the following is closest to your opinion, even if neither is exactly right? Congress should continue to investigate whether the 858 43% Trump campaign obstructed the investigation into Russian influence in the 2016 election. Congress should not continue to investigate whether 811 41% the Trump campaign obstructed the investigation into Russian influence in the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion 323 16% As you may know, the first step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. Do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? Yes, Congress should begin impeachment proceedings 678 34% No, Congress should not begin impeachment 957 48% proceedings Don t know / No opinion 357 18% And, if you had to pick one, which of the following is the main reason you believe Congress should begin impeachment proceedings? (N=678) President Trump committed an impeachable offense, 319 47% such as treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. President Trump has proven he is unfit to serve and 351 52% should be removed from office, regardless of whether he committed an impeachable offense or not. Don t know / No opinion 8 1% Page 13
POLx_1 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable 414 21% Total Unfavorable 840 42% Heard Of, No Opinion 448 22% Never Heard Of 290 15% POLx_2 Favorability for Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable 645 32% Total Unfavorable 950 48% Heard Of, No Opinion 236 12% Never Heard Of 161 8% POLx_3 Favorability for Charles Schumer Total Favorable 479 24% Total Unfavorable 723 36% Heard Of, No Opinion 439 22% Never Heard Of 351 18% POLx_4 POLx_5 Favorability for Mike Pence Favorability for Donald Trump Total Favorable 726 36% Total Unfavorable 876 44% Heard Of, No Opinion 261 13% Never Heard Of 129 6% Total Favorable 782 39% Total Unfavorable 1103 55% Heard Of, No Opinion 85 4% Never Heard Of 21 1% POLx_6 Favorability for Republicans in Congress Total Favorable 625 31% Total Unfavorable 1087 55% Heard Of, No Opinion 187 9% Never Heard Of 93 5% Page 14
POLx_7 Favorability for Democrats in Congress Total Favorable 815 41% Total Unfavorable 906 45% Heard Of, No Opinion 177 9% Never Heard Of 93 5% POLx_8 Favorability for Robert Mueller Total Favorable 748 38% Total Unfavorable 622 31% Heard Of, No Opinion 403 20% Never Heard Of 219 11% POLx_9 Favorability for Kevin McCarthy Total Favorable 259 13% Total Unfavorable 452 23% Heard Of, No Opinion 599 30% Never Heard Of 683 34% POLx_10 POLx_34 Favorability for Joe Biden Favorability for Michael Cohen Total Favorable 948 48% Total Unfavorable 730 37% Heard Of, No Opinion 233 12% Never Heard Of 81 4% Total Favorable 246 12% Total Unfavorable 957 48% Heard Of, No Opinion 482 24% Never Heard Of 307 15% POLx_40 Favorability for Wiliam Barr Total Favorable 406 20% Total Unfavorable 597 30% Heard Of, No Opinion 427 21% Never Heard Of 563 28% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 15
Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters 1992 100% xdemgender Gender: Male 932 47% Gender: Female 1060 53% age5 Age: 18-29 370 19% Age: 30-44 433 22% Age: 45-54 337 17% Age: 55-64 388 19% Age: 65+ 463 23% demagegeneration Generation Z: 18-21 145 7% Millennial: Age 22-37 461 23% Generation X: Age 38-53 493 25% Boomers: Age 54-72 768 39% N 1866 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) 742 37% PID: Ind (no lean) 649 33% PID: Rep (no lean) 600 30% xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 296 15% PID/Gender: Dem Women 446 22% PID/Gender: Ind Men 309 16% PID/Gender: Ind Women 340 17% PID/Gender: Rep Men 327 16% PID/Gender: Rep Women 274 14% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) 635 32% Ideo: Moderate (4) 463 23% Ideo: Conservative (5-7) 680 34% N 1778 xeduc3 Educ: < College 1253 63% Educ: Bachelors degree 471 24% Educ: Post-grad 268 13% Continued on next page Page 16
National Tracking Poll #190452, April, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k 1068 54% Income: 50k-100k 643 32% Income: 100k+ 281 14% xdemwhite Ethnicity: White 1611 81% xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 193 10% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am. 253 13% demraceother Ethnicity: Other 128 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant 492 25% Relig: Roman Catholic 350 18% Relig: Ath./Agn./None 597 30% Relig: Something Else 323 16% N 1761 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 50 3% xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 1072 54% Relig: All Non-Christian 920 46% xdemusr Community: Urban 488 25% Community: Suburban 971 49% Community: Rural 533 27% xdememploy Employ: Private Sector 607 30% Employ: Government 121 6% Employ: Self-Employed 149 7% Employ: Homemaker 120 6% Employ: Student 122 6% Employ: Retired 535 27% Employ: Unemployed 187 9% Employ: Other 151 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 370 19% Military HH: No 1622 81% xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction 735 37% RD/WT: Wrong Track 1257 63% Continued on next page Page 17
Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve 769 39% Trump Job Disapprove 1133 57% N 1902 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve 389 20% Trump Job Somewhat Approve 380 19% Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 246 12% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove 886 45% N 1902 Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump 782 39% Unfavorable of Trump 1103 55% N 1885 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump 408 20% Somewhat Favorable of Trump 374 19% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 173 9% Very Unfavorable of Trump 930 47% N 1885 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy 492 25% #1 Issue: Security 394 20% #1 Issue: Health Care 342 17% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 307 15% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 105 5% #1 Issue: Education 146 7% #1 Issue: Energy 116 6% #1 Issue: Other 90 5% xsubvote18o 2018 House Vote: Democrat 853 43% 2018 House Vote: Republican 633 32% 2018 House Vote: Someone else 95 5% 2018 House Vote: Didnt Vote 406 20% N 1988 xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton 714 36% 2016 Vote: Donald Trump 665 33% 2016 Vote: Someone else 182 9% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote 429 22% N 1989 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes 1371 69% Voted in 2014: No 621 31% Continued on next page Page 18
National Tracking Poll #190452, April, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama 852 43% 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney 525 26% 2012 Vote: Other 85 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote 528 27% N 1990 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 355 18% 4-Region: Midwest 458 23% 4-Region: South 744 37% 4-Region: West 435 22% xdempidlean Strong Republican 365 18% Not Very Strong Republican 235 12% Strong Democrat 466 23% Not Very Strong Democrat 276 14% N 1343 xdemevang Evangelical 510 26% Non-Evangelical 1482 74% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 19
Morning Consult Page 20