Uganda 2011 Elections: Campaign Issues, Voter perceptions and Early voter intentions Results for the most recent Afrobarometer Survey (Nov Dec 2010)
The AFROBAROMETER A comparative series of national public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy and market reform, leadership, identity and other issues Three key objectives: 1) Produce scientifically reliable data on public opinion in Africa 2) Strengthen institutional capacity for survey research in Africa 3) Disseminate and apply results (to decision makers, policy advocates, civic educators, journalists, researchers, donors, and ordinary Africans)
Afrobarometer Coverage Round 1, 1999-2001, 12 countries Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda Round 2, 2002-2003, 16 countries Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal Round 3, 2005-2006, 18 countries Benin, Madagascar Round 4, 2008-2009, 20 countries Burkina Faso, Liberia
Coverage of Afrobarometer Surveys, 1999-2009 Back to Afrobarometer Countries
Afrobarometer Methodology Respondents are all adult (18+) citizens of Uganda Nationally representative sample distributed with probability proportionate to population size Random selection of Enumeration Areas Households Respondent within household Every adult has an equal chance of selection Face-to-Face interviews in the language of the respondent s choice Rigorous double-blind translation process that ensures that equivalence of meaning is maintained across languages
Afrobarometer R4.5 in Uganda Nationally representative sample size of 2000 adults, based on UBOS 2002 census data and related 2010 projections Interviews over 19 days between 18 th November to 6 th December 2010 Survey reached 71% of Uganda s districts across all administrative regions reaching both urban and rural areas 9 local language translations: Luganda, Runyankole-Rukiga, Runyoro-Rutooro, Lugbara, Alur, Luo, Ateso, Akirimojong and Lumasaba. Overall margin of error is +/- 2.5 Funded by the Deepening Democracy Programme (DDP)
Table 1: Sample Breakdown Afrobarometer Round 4.5 Uganda Survey Demographic Breakdown Un-weighted Weighted Gender Locale Region Age Education Religion Male 50 50 Female 50 50 Urban 14 14 Rural 86 86 Central 20 22 West 24 26 North 22 22 East 27 25 Kampala 6 6 18-24 25 25 25-34 32 33 35-44 23 23 45-54 11 11 55-64 4 4 65-74 2 2 75 and older 1 1 Don't know 0 0 No formal education 14 14 Primary 41 39 Secondary 34 35 Post-secondary 11 12 Don't know 0 0 Christian 88 87 Muslim 11 12 Other 1 1
Objectives of the survey (Why now?) To assess public perceptions, opinions and attitudes towards democracy and other issues of national and public interest and how these are fairing in the present electoral environment To generate scientifically reliable data to aid various stakeholders in making informed decisions and engaging in the ongoing electoral process
Presentation Outline Summary overview of results Mapping the current political and electoral landscape Trends Perceptions of the current electoral environment Expectations and fears Voting intentions (early indications)
Summary overview of results Preference for Democracy remains high Perception of the supply of democracy has increased High electoral participation and engagement Widespread concerns about likelihood of violence Opposition has lost ground; people rallying around the government
Mapping the current political and electoral landscape Evolution of political opinions and attitudes (trends over time)
Figure 1: Demand for and Supply of Democracy in Uganda Over Time *Supply Side: (q29) In your opinion how much of a democracy is Uganda today? (q30) Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Uganda? *Demand Side: (q21) Which of these three statements is closest to your opinion? (q20) there are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternatives: a) one-party, b) army governs and c) strong man rule.
Figure 2: Trust in State Institutions, 2000-2010 (percent trusting somewhat or a lot ) 100 90 80 70 60 50 43 66 52 51 72 51 61 48 70 52 54 61 78 56 68 2002 2005 2008 2010 40 30 37 20 10 0 Trust Police Trust Courts Trust Parliament Trust President *How much do you trust each of the following, or haven t you heard enough about them to say? (Q34).
Figure 3: Views on Government Handling of Some Key Issues Over Time (proportion saying Very/Fairly Well) How well or badly would you say the current government is handling the following matters, or haven t you heard enough to say (Q38) *Managing the Economy *Creating Jobs *Improve basic health services *Addressing educational needs *Fighting corruption in government
Elections Attitudes and Evaluations (Past, Present and Future Expectations) General attitudes towards elections
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 83 42 Figure 4: Preference for Elections and Multiparty Competition, 2002-2010 90 54 82 67 90 66 Elections best to choose leaders Many parties needed 0 2002 2005 2008 2010 Which of these statements is closest to your own opinion: (Q22 and Q23) A. We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open and honest elections. B. Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing this country s leaders. A. Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in Uganda. B. Many political parties are needed to make sure that Ugandans have real choices in who governs them.
Figure 5: Election Efficacy, 2005-2010 80 70 60 50 40 30 56 47 49 44 62 56 Elections ensure MP reflect voters views Elections enable voters to remove leaders 20 10 0 2005 2008 2010 Think about how elections work in practice in this country. How well do elections: *ensure that the Members of Parliament reflect the views of voters. (Q46a) *enable voters to remove from office leaders who do not do what the people want. (Q46b)
The Electoral Commission
Figure 6: Adequacy of Existing Electoral Laws 70 60 55 50 40 30 25 20 13 10 0 Yes No Don't Know In your opinion, are the existing electoral laws sufficient to ensure clean, free and democratic elections? (Q54)
70 Figure 7: Perceptions of the Electoral Commission of Uganda, 2011 60 58 58 50 40 30 47 47 28 35 Positive view Negative view 20 10 0 Trust Prepared Neutral *How much do you trust each of the following, or haven t you heard enough about them to say: the Electoral Commission of Uganda? (Q34c) *In your opinion, how well prepared is the Electoral Commission of Uganda for the 2011 elections? (Q52) *Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (Q55) A: The Electoral Commission of Uganda performs its duties as a neutral body guided only by law. B: The Electoral Commission of Uganda makes decisions that favour particularpeople, parties or interests.
12 Figure 8: Performance of the EC Chairman Approve / Strongly approve 53 Disapprove / Strongly disapprove Don't Know 35 Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months, or haven t you heard enough about them to say? (Q41e)
Voter Awareness and Information Access
Figure 9: Election Knowledge Know year of election 92 Know month of election 67 Can name one candidate 97 Can name 2nd candidate 92 Can name 3rd Candidate 66 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Can you tell me: *The year and month in which the next presidential and parliamentary elections will be held. (Q28a) *The names of at least three candidates who are running for president in the upcoming presidential election. (Q28b)
Figure 10: Electoral Participation Attend election rally 58 Discuss with others how to vote 55 Attend voter education meeting 50 Worked for a candidate or party 40 Participated in party primary 30 Called radio or TV talk show Reported campaign malpractice 9 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personnaly, have done any of these things during the past year. (Q19)
Figure 11: Sources of Election Information (percent a lot ) Radio 53 Friends, neighbors, co-workers Political party officials or rallies The candidates Posters or parmphlets Community meetings 33 31 29 27 25 Family members 22 Newspapers 19 Civic educators Religious leaders Chiefs or elders Television 15 13 11 10 Internet 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 How much information on the forthcoming elections have you received from the following sources? (Q57)
Figure 12: Trust in Media 100 90 80 70 60 62 56 50 40 30 29 34 20 10 9 9 0 Private media Government media Not at all / just a little Somewhat / a lot Don't know How much do you trust each of the following, or haven t you heard enough about them to say: *private newspapers and radio stations? (Q34j) *government newspapers and radio stations? (Q34k)
Figure 13: Perceived Media Neutrality 100 90 80 76 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 6 5 5 28 2 2 17 2 0 Radio Newspaper TV Unequal, pro-government Equal Unequal, pro-opposition [After naming respondent s most frequently read, listened to or watched media sources: Thinking of the [newspaper that you most frequently read / the radio station that you listen to most frequently / the TV stations that you watch most frequently], in your opinion, doe this [source] give equal or unequal coverage to different candidates in the forthcoming elections? (q60a,b,c)
Expectations & Fears
Figure 14: Extent of Freedoms, 2011 100 90 84 88 91 80 70 65 60 50 40 30 20 10 15 1 10 2 8 1 27 8 0 Speak Associate Vote Hold a rally Somewhat / Completely free Not at all / not very free Don't know In this country, how free are you: to say what you think? (Q12a) to join any political organization you want? (Q12b) to choose who to vote for without feeling pressured? (Q12c) to hold a political rally? (Q12d)
100 Figure 15: Careful What You Say About Politics, 2000-2010 90 80 70 60 52 47 65 58 63 50 40 34 39 33 30 20 10 0 2002 2005 2008 2010 Never / Rarely Often / Always In this country, how often do people have to be careful of what they say about politics? (Q33)
Figure 16: Comparing Election Quality, 2011 vs. 2006 Don't know 12% Somewhat / Much Worse 21% Somewhat / Much Better 67% In your opinion, do you think the organization of the 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections will be better or worse than the 2006 elections? (Q56)
Figure 17: Elections Free & Fair, 2011 vs. 2006 50 45 40 39 35 32 30 25 20 15 17 13 18 24 21 24 2006 2011 10 5 5 7 0 Not free & fair Free & fair w/major problems Free & fair w/minor problems Completely Free & fair Don't know On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election, held in 2006? (Q42) On the whole, how free and fair do you expect the forthcoming 2011 national election to be? (Q61)
80 Figure 18: Frequency of Electoral Malpractices, 2011 70 60 56 50 40 37 45 47 42 50 39 48 Often / Always Rarely / Never 30 Don't know 20 10 6 8 6 12 0 Buy votes Ignore election laws Use violence Commit election crimes In your opinion, how often during elections in this country: do political parties or candidates buy votes? (Q47b) do political parties and candidates ignore election laws? (Q47a) do political parties or candidates use violence? (Q47c) do election officials commit election crimes? (Q47d)
Vote Buying and Intimidation (attitudes, perceptions and practices)
Figure 19: Is Vote Buying/Selling Wrong? 60 52 50 49 Not wrong at all 40 30 38 33 Wrong but understandable Wrong and punishable Don't know 20 10 7 5 8 5 0 Candidates offer money Voter accepts money In some places in Uganda, candidates for political office or people from political parties sometimes offer money to voters in return for their vote. Do you think itis not wrong at all, wrong but understandable, or wrong and punishable for: a candidate or party official to offer money in returnfor a vote? (Q67a) a voter to accept money in return for his or her vote? (Q67b)
Figure 20: Response to Vote Buying Take money and vote for candidate of your choice 70 77 Take money and vote for candidate 5 9 Refuse the money 5 16 You Neighbor Be unsure of what to do 1 1 Don't know 0 11 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 If a candidate or party official offered YOU money for YOUR votein the 2011 elections, what would you do? (Q68) And what about other people in your neighbourhood or village? If a candidate or party official offered them money for their votes in the 2011 elections, what would they do? (Q69)
Vote Buying Offers 2011 83% say they have never been offered anything for their vote in the current campaign, compared to 15% who received offers The majority (just over half) of offers were of money, about one quarter were household items, and the remainder were food, alcohol or jobs The vast majority of the offers came from the NRM, with FDC, DP and UPC jointly making up the verysmall remaining share.
Figure 21: Does competition between political parties lead to violence? Views over time *In your opinion, How often, in this country, does competition between political parties lead to violent conflict?.(q32a)
Figure 22: Fear of Electoral Intimidation or Violence? 50 45 40 35 33 30 27 25 21 20 15 12 10 5 5 0 Not at all A little bit Somewhat A lot Don't know During the current campaign for the 2011 elections, how much do you personally fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence? (Q74)
Figure 23: Threats of Violence 25 20 15 14 2006 10 9 8 9 2011 5 0 Against you Against people in your neighbourhood or village How often, if ever, has anyone threatened negative consequences to you in order to get you to vote a certain way: during the 2006 elections? (Q76a) during the current campaign for the 2011 elections? (Q76b) How often, if ever, has anyone threatened negative consequences to people in yourneighbourhood or village in order to get them to vote a certain way:
Figure 24: Likelihood of Violence 100 90 80 73 70 70 60 50 58 59 40 32 31 30 20 10 9 19 8 10 19 10 0 Campaign violence Losers refuse results Post-election violence Security forces prevent large-scale violence Not at all / not very likely Somewhat / very likely Don't know In your view, how likely is it: that there will be violence during the election campaign? (Q82a) that losers will refuse to accept the official election results?(q82b) that there will be violence after the announcement of election results? (Q82c) that the security agencies will be able to prevent large-scale outbreaks of violence?)
Figure 25: Punishment for Electoral Crimes 70 61 60 52 50 38 40 30 30 20 10 9 10 0 Political parties and candidates Election officials Not at all / not very likely Somewhat / very likely Don't know In this country, how likely do you think it is: that political parties and candidates who commit election crimes will be punished? (Q48a) that election officials who commit election crimes will be punished? (Q48b)
Voter Intentions: What voters want and intend to do (Early Indications)
Figure 26: Plans to Vote in 2011
Table 1: Electoral Issues National Priorities K'la Central West North East Urban Rural Male Female National % % % % % % % % % % Maintaining order in the nation 16 29 20 12 20 16 21 19 20 20 Growing the Economy 21 17 13 10 12 19 13 14 14 14 Fighting Corruption 24 13 27 13 13 25 20 22 20 21 Building Infrastructure 6 5 15 12 12 7 11 11 11 11 Equitable access to resources and opportunities Improving public services such as education and health 10 8 8 4 4 8 6 7 6 6 22 26 16 38 38 25 27 27 29 28 Question: If you had to choose, which one of the following things is most important
Figure 27: Voter Assessments of Political Parties 100 90 80 72 70 60 50 40 30 28 39 38 37 30 28 27 Like Dislike Neutral 20 15 10 0 NRM FDC UDC FDC DP UPC DP UPC FDC What do you think about each of the political parties participating in the forthcoming elections. After I read the name of a political party, please say whether you strongly dislike, dislike, feel neutral about, like, or strongly like that party. If I come to a partyyou haven t heard of or your feel you do not know enough about, just say so.? (Q71)
Figure 28: Factors Influencing Preference for a Party 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 64 62 61 60 51 48 34 31 27 26 Past governing experiences of the party Policy pormises of party Person integrity of party leader Leadership skills of party leader Quality of other parties Campaign rewards distributed by candidate Party leader's military background Party's chances of winning Services delivered by present government Ethnic or regional origin of party leader In deciding which party you like most, how much do you think of or consider the following factors? (Q72)
Figure 29: Factors Influencing Party Rejection 60 50 40 30 20 43 42 42 39 33 20 15 10 0 Party's poor/unrealistic policies Party's leaders corruption Party's perceived tribalism Party's lack of governing experience Party leader's lack of leadership skills Ethnic or regional origins of party leader Party leader's military background In deciding which party you most dislike, how much do you think of or consider the following factors? (Q72)
Figure 31: Preference for Term Limits 100 90 80 80 70 72 67 Two term limit 60 50 51 No limit 40 36 30 30 20 19 24 10 0 2002 2005* 2008 2010 Which of these statements is closest to your own opinion: (Q26) A. The constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office. B. There should be no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve. *In 2005, respondents were asked whether they agreed (=no limit)or disagreed (=two term limit) with the proposed amendment to the constitution removing term limits.
Table 2: Voting Intentions National Av. REGION RESIDENCE GENDER PARTY AFFIL Kampal a Central West North East Urban Rural Male Female NRM OPP Yoweri Kagguta 65 44 59 83 59 64 50 68 63 67 95 6 Kiiza Besigye 12 15 12 11 11 13 14 12 14 10 1 57 Norbert Mao 3 8 8 0 2 1 6 3 4 2 0 14 Olara Otuunu 3 1 0 11 1 3 3 4 2 0 14 Bidandi Ssali 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 Betty Kamya 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 3 Abedi Bwanika 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sam Lubega 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Would not vote 1 6 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 0 1 Refused to answer 11 18 13 4 12 15 18 10 9 14 3 3 Don't Know 3 6 3 1 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 1
Figure 33: Parliamentary Vote if Elections Held Tomorrow Would not vote 1% IPC 1% Refuse 9% Don't Know 4% Others 3% DP 4% Besigye 12% UFA 1% UPC 3% NRM 62% If an election were held tomorrow, which party s candidate would you vote for in the parliamentary election? (Q89)
Figure 36: Trust in Parties, 2000-2010 (percent trusting somewhat or a lot ) 100 90 80 72 70 60 50 40 56 35 45 39 60 39 Ruling party Opposition parties 30 20 16 10 0 2002 2005 2008 2010 How much do you trust each of the following, or haven t you heard enough about them to say? (q34e q34f)
Figure 37: Opposition Presents a Credible Alternative 60 50 44 45 40 30 20 10 0 Credible alternative Not credible alternative Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (Q92) A: The opposition has presented a convincing alternative vision and plan for Uganda. B: The opposition has not shown that it has the plans to solve the country s problems.
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