IMPACT of visa liberalisation on countries of destination POLiSH EXPERIENCE WITH UKRAINE And other vlc Marcin Wrona, PhD marcin.wrona@mswia.gov.pl 1
TIME When: 2009-2017 How long: max 90 days in any 180 days Where: EU countries What for: main tourism Who: Biometric passports holders (9 millions of UA) 19.12.2009 Macedonia Montenegro Serbia 15.12.2010 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina 28.04.2014 Moldova 28.03.2017 Georgia 11.06.2017 Ukraine 2
RESULTS number of ukrainians - 1,27 mln - smartphone map - 0,9 mln - Ministry of Labour (work permits,etc.) - 0,9 mln National Polish Bank(NBP) - 0,5 mln Polish Social Insurance Institution (ZUS): health insurance contributions - 1 2 mln experts: legally and illegaly, permanent and temporary visas 3
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and UA TOURISTS Growth of Ukrainian stayers Extra income for hotels and other accomodation institutions 4
Total number of visitors staying in Poland in hotels and other accommodation establishments from the visa-free countries (Ukraine and all countries) 8 000 000 7 000 000 6 000 000 + 4 % + 5 % + 12 % + 7 % 6 803 667 6 378 793 5 000 000 + 7 % + 12 % + 5 % 5 204 935 5 427 426 5 689 570 4 000 000 4 387 404-8 % - 5 % 4 046 312 3 861 942 + 7 % 4 409 550 4 134 970 4 940 248 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000-22 % - 10 % + 7 % + 25 % + 30 % + 23 % 177 578 138 433 125 707 134 930 168 738 219 305 270 666-0,3 % + 6 % + 25 % +21 % 269 831 285 046 357 578 433 838 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017* Ukraine Total TCN 5
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and UA students - Biggest growth: 2012/2013 + 191 % - Huge growth: 1 376 (2011) and 16 761 (2016) of educational permits - Share of UA students: 2011: 20 % of all TCN students, 2016: 51 % of all TCN students) 6
Total number of first residence permits issued for education reasons to visa-free country, Ukrainian and third country nationals 39 308 40 000 35 000 29 825 32 676 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 1 853 1 948 1 651 1 779 9 098 7 066 6 995 6 145 3 046 3 214 3 746 1 502 1 376 3 599 9 614 10 790 10 473 23 007 24 181 23 723 16 740 17 266 16 375 16 761 2008 2009* 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 Ukraine Total VLCN Total TCN Ukraine Total VLCN Total TCN 7
Total number of first residence permits issued for education reasons to Ukrainian nationals (* 2017 and 2018 number of Ukrainian students in Poland) + 6 % 40 000 35 000 + 112 % 35 584 37 683 30 000 25 000 + 44 % 23 723 20 000 + 56 % 16 375-30 % 16 761 15 000 10 000 + 161 % + 191 % 10 473 5 000 1 651 1 779 3 046 1 376 3 599 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 8
RESULTS MOST COMMON JOBs of UA students - 2015: possibility of work on the base of the student visa - Uber drivers - Public transport drivers - Restaurant emploees - Buliding sector normal workers - Agriculture normal, seasonal workers 9
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and asylum Drop in the number of applications claimed after VL (no corelation with VL) Only total 11 asylum claims from Western Balkan countries (2007-2017) Top 5 in Poland (TCN): Russia (Chechnya), Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, Belarus Huge number of Ukraininas afteer Crimea and Donbass conflict 10
Total number of asylum applications received from visa-free countries (Top 3) 4500 4 217 4000 3500 3 234 3000 2500 2 220 2 179 2000 1 735 1500 1 082 1 237 1 197 1000 500 648 318 628 466 0 3 31 55 19 71 40 102 6 36 5 45 5 67 72 5 8 46 2 1 7 9 63 7 52 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 *2014 2015 2016 *2017 2018 Moldova Georgia Ukraine 11
Total number of positive decisions on asylum applicants (top 5 all countries): 2007-17 Belarus 175 Iraq 210 Ukraine 395 Syria 500 Russia 7 180 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 12
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and border crossings Ukraine similar numbers (from 20 029 023 in 2016 to 20 502 385 in 2017) Moldova 4x increase in border traffic (illegal migration slight increase). Georgia increase in border traffic 2016-2018 (illegal migration decrease). Illegal migrant few cases (3910 - UA, 189 rest) Illegal migrants Ukrainans similar numbers (3713 in 2015, 3987 in 2016, 3910 in 2017) 13
Total number of legal external border-crossings and detections of irregular bordercrossings from nationals of Ukraine to Poland 25000000 4500 20000000 3713 + 7 % 18771520 3987-2 % 4000 3910 + 7 % 20029823 20502385 + 3 % 3500 15000000 2872 14106859 15601302 2454 3000 2500 10000000 9426864 10276659 12041884 2000 5000000 1046 4725529 1528 6083801 8546521 1269 1161 1388 1444 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 legal irregular 0 14
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and residence permits Decrease of number of short-stay visas corelating to VL Growth of long-stay visa applications Short-stay visa obligatory only for people who aren t holders of biometric passports (only 30 % have biopas) Huge boost of residence permits (from 8 003 in 2008 to 585 439 in 2017) 15
Total number of temporary residence permits (2009-18) by VLC 90000 80000 70000 Main reasons for applying for temporary residence permits: 60000 50000 WORK (59%) FAMILY (31%) EDUCATION (16,5%) 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ukraine Moldova Georgia Serbia Albania Bosnia and Hercegovina North Macedonia Montenegro 16
Total number of residence permits applications (all residence permits) by visa-free countries in 2008 Serbia; 117; 1% 2008 Bosnia and Herzegovina; 48; 0% Montenegro; 22; 0% North Macedonia; 50; 1% Albania; 162; 2% Moldova; 517; 6% Georgia; 139; 2% Ukraine; 8 003; 88% 17
Total number of residence permits applications (all residence permits) by visa-free countries in 2017 Bosnia and Herzegovina; 114; 0% Montenegro; 44; 0% 2017 Georgia; 1 637; 0% Moldova; 7 803; 2% Serbia; 869; 0% Albania; 140; 0% North Macedonia; 90; 0% Ukraine; 585 439; 98% 18
Total number of short- and long-stay visa applications by Ukrainian nationals 1 200 000 1 000 000 + 28 % 958 256 800 000 745 763 600 000 583 190 558 109 583 077 514 453 595 835 468 034 488 293 400 000 279 268 309 914 334 145 389 012 294 588-53 % 280 236 200 000 204 180 135 035 208 157 203 680 92 830 144 660 0 17 086 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 short-stay long-stay 19
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and Work permits Steady growth rate since 2015 ~ 90 % per year Slackening of growth: 2017 Reason: Crimea annexation and war in Donbas (2014-15): pauperisation of UA society The Pole s Card 4 682 UA / 8 800 all in 2018 20
Total number of work permits for Ukrainian nationals in Poland 250000 200000 + 81 % 192547 150000 106223 100000 + 110 % + 91 % 50465 50000 12894 + 45 % 18669 20295 20416 + 9 % + 0,5 % + 29 % 26315 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 21
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and SOCIAL INSURANCE Foreigners declared to social insurance (%) Citizenship 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Citizens of EU states 25,1 24,5 24,2 23,3 23,9 24,4 22 16 10,8 7,7 6,3 Citizens of non-eu states, including: 74,9 75,5 75,8 76,7 76,1 75,6 78 84 89,2 92,3 93,7 Ukraine 25 26,6 27,7 31,3 31,9 32,6 39,5 54,9 66,3 71,9 74,8 Belarus 6,4 6,2 6,3 6,2 6,5 6,3 5,7 4,8 4,9 5,5 5,7 Vietnam 4,6 5 5 5 5 5,2 4,9 3,3 2,2 1,7 1,4 Moldova 1,2 0,9 1 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,4 1,4 1,7 1,5 1,3 Russia 4,6 4,6 4,4 4 3,9 3,8 3,4 2,5 1,9 1,5 1,3 22
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and SOCIAL INSURANCE Foreigners declared to social insurance (people) Citizenship 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Total 65041 69813 78608 88423 93012 101083 124349 184188 293188 440255 569116 Citizens of EU states 16350 17138 19048 20591 22242 24656 27349 29421 31694 34116 35581 Citizens of non-eu states, including: 48691 52675 59560 67832 70770 76427 97000 154767 261494 406139 533535 Ukraine 16237 18602 21777 27659 29713 32989 49150 101150 194418 316474 425670 Belarus 4184 4320 4927 5512 6035 6387 7094 8903 14351 24013 32632 Vietnam 3004 3481 3951 4451 4655 5267 6041 6146 6528 7592 8101 Moldova 789 643 817 967 994 1217 1767 2628 5024 6510 7337 Russia 3018 3201 3448 3558 3661 3832 4178 4692 5691 6654 7255 Most noticable increase: Ukraine (2008-2018: 26x increase) Belarus India Georgia (2008-2018: 29x increase) Nepal Bangladesh 23
RESULTS Declaration of employer Citizens of three countries benefiting from visa liberalisation, can work in Poland based on declaration of the employer Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine: the number of registered declarations is constantly increasing Declarations for citizens who arrived or will arrive in Poland based on visa-free movement pose a significant part of all registered declarations for these states (Georgia 46,6%, Moldova 61,5%, Ukraine 26,1%).!!!! Available data is not complete- the majority of foreigners arriving in Poland in order to perform seasonal work, do it in the margins of visa-free movement!!!! 24
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and UA irregular migration Slight increase of illegaly present, slower growth rate Illegal work: huge increase, steady growth rate Unauthorised entry: slight decrease, rise in previous year Forced returns: slight increase vs slight decrease in prevoious year 25
Total number of forced returns, nationals found on illegal employment, nationals found to be illegally present and facilitators of unauthorised entry, transit and residence by Ukrainian nationals in Poland 25000 20000 + 13 % 19 859 + 46 % 17 458 15000 10000 11 921 + 93 % 11052 5000 4 817 5 228 7 478 + 114 % 5717 0 601 689 520 546 464 432 1005 2661 614 1193 1274 148 378 261-31 % 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 illegal employment illegally present unauthorised entry forced returns + 6 % - 39 % + 21 % 775 317 26
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and human trafficking - Growth of share of UA nationals in all TC (6 % in 2016; 75 % in 2017) 27
RESULTS Total number of trafficked persons from third countries and Ukraine (final court rulings) 35 31 30 25 20 14 15 50 % 8 10 6 % 75 % 5 7 2 6 0 2015 2016 2017 Total number of trafficked persons from third countries (final court rulings) Total number of trafficked persons from Ukraine (final court rulings) 28
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and falsifying documents Drop by 20 % in the course of the 2016 and 2017 2016 peak year (increase of 9 % - 2 792) From 2015 huge growth ( about 270 %) 29
RESULTS Total number of identity document fraud instances by Ukrainans 2017 2224 2016 2792 2015 2555 2014 693 2013 111 2012 47 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 30
RESULTS Visa liberalisation and administration burdens 1st side - The introduction of the visa-free regime for Ukrainians contributed to some extent to the increase in applications for residence permits in Poland, first of all for temporary residence and work permits which resulted in the increase of the administrative burden related to the administrative procedures of granting those permits 2nd side - No need to claim short-term visas less work for administration 31
CONCLUSIONS Visa liberalisation for ukraine and vlc Push and Pull factors 1. Insufficient wages 2. Political situation 3. Cultural and religion similarity 4. Polish roots 5. Expanded social networks 32
CONCLUSIONS Visa liberalisation for ukraine and vlc 1. Positive aspects in terms of illegal migration (dropping nr of irregular border crossings) 2. Slight increase of regular migration (growth of issued visas and work permits) 3. Increasing meaning of Ukrainian workforce in the Polish labour market (filling the gap) 4. Employers more elasticity and simplified process as far as employing foreigners is concerned 5. Asylum seekers number is still decreasing (high after Crimea and Donbass conflict in 2014) 6. Generated extra demand for services and goods (hotels, restaurants, taxes, trainings, etc.) 33
CONCLUSIONS Visa liberalisation for ukraine and VLC 1. Wider migration possibilities 2. Impact not fully visible too short period (data for 2017, mid 2018, lib. in mid-2017) 3. Increase of number of illegal workers (bigger risk of entering of foreigners into grey zone: visa-free movement legal stay to 90 days, declaration of employer valid for 6 months) 4. Visa applications: increase of long stay (+28%), decrease of short stay (-53%) 5. Possibility of changing the direction of migration of Ukrainian citizens from Poland to i.e. Czech Republic, Germany or Southern European countries 34
Thank You for Your attention Paldies par jūsu uzmanību Ministry of the Interior and Administration Analyses and Migration Policy Department European Migration Network National Contact Point to Poland Marcin Wrona, PhD marcin.wrona@mswia.gov.pl 35