Dilema de Crescimento na America Latina Thomas J. Trebat Diretor executivo Centro de Estudos Brasileiros Universidade Columbia Juy 7, 2007 1
Bons Tempos: Crescimento na America Latina 2002-2008 Juy 7, 2007 2
Perspectivas futuras são moderadas Juy 7, 2007 3
O Dilema de Crescimento Stylized facts about growth in Latin America The covariates of growth: economic fundamentals And how does Latin America compare to the rest of the world? What should be done about the growth? Augmented Washington Consensus: do more reforms! Second-generation reforms The Washington Consensus was wrong! The Washington Consensus was irrelevant Institutions need to be reformed, not policies Juy 7, 2007 4
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Crescimento mediocre nos ultimos 25 anos 6.0 5.5 GDP growth 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.0 2.91 3.1 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 1950-1980 1980-1990 1990-1997 1990-2005 Weigthed average Simple average Ocampo Juy 7, 2007 6
Quase todos os paises cresceram menos nos ultimos 25 anos do que em epocas anteriores Annual average GDP growth 1990-2004 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Uruguay Bolivia Chile Argentina Except Chile! Peru El Salvador Guatemala Nicaragua Honduras Colombia Paraguay Venezuela Dominican Republic Costa Rica Panama Mexico Ecuador Brazil 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 1950-1980 Ocampo Juy 7, 2007 7
O Caso do Brasil Juy 7, 2007 8
As reformas neoliberais foram eficazes? Reforms Relative Income Juy 7, 2007 9
Um problema comum a todos: produtividade muita baixa 3.0 2.7 2.4 Per worker GDP growth 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) -1.7-1.9 Very low rates! (3.0) 1950-1980 1980-1990 1990-1997 1990-2005 Weighted average Simple average Ocampo Juy 7, 2007 10
Só o Chile cresceu! Renda caiu muito na Venezuela! AMLO Chavez Bachelet Garcia Juy 7, 2007 11
Volatilidade no Cono Sul Reforms begin Disaster strikes Juy 7, 2007 12
Lições vindas do Chile? Juy 7, 2007 13
O caso do Brasil Lula II Morales Correa? Juy 7, 2007 14
Success? Juy 7, 2007 15
Periodos de Expansão Económica Tem Sido Curtos Demais Juy 7, 2007 16
America Latina tem perdido (muito) terreno na corrida global Latin America/World 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Then 1870 1900 1913 1950 Iner-regional disparities 1965 1973 1980 1990 1991 1997 2000 2003 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 Latin America/United States Now Latina America/World Maddison Latin America/US Maddison LA/W World Bank LA/US World Bank Juy 7, 2007 17
Nos ultimos dez anos, muitos dos paises emergentes tem crescido 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Developing countries Latin America Ocampo Juy 7, 2007 18
e A.L. segue sendo a lanterninha Juy 7, 2007 19
Resumindo os pontos principais: fatos estereotipados- I Slow GDP growth driven by slow TFP growth Within Latin America, cross-country differences in growth are important Latin American growth has underperformed the rest of the world Juy 7, 2007 20
Resumo II Business cycles in Latin America are more volatile and more protracted Volatility (large swings) and persistence (long cycles) Output collapses more frequent in Latin America (and Africa) Growth spells shorter-lived in Latin America Juy 7, 2007 21
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Os fundamentos: explicam ou não o crescimento? Fundamentals are the deep determinants of growth Political, social, and economic variables thought to influence growth Do good fundamentals lead to growth, or is it the other way around? How does Latin America compare to the rest of the world? Juy 7, 2007 23
FUNDAMENTOS MACRO: MELHORES OU PIORES NA AMERICA LATINA? Juy 7, 2007 24
Despesas com consumo do governo ja são altas e... Juy 7, 2007 25
Despesas primárias tendem a crescer Juy 7, 2007 26
E o investimento público encolhe Juy 7, 2007 27
Divida pública elevada na maioria... Juy 7, 2007 28
INSTITUIÇÕES: MELHORES OU PIORES NA AMERICA LATINA? Juy 7, 2007 29
TIPOS DE INSTITUIÇÕES Democracy Legal structures and property rights Corruption Quality of the government bureaucracy How does Latin America compare? Answer: not too badly! Juy 7, 2007 30
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Renda e qualidade do funcionalismo publico Juy 7, 2007 32
Qualidade da máquina burocrática Juy 7, 2007 33
Eficácia da burocracia Juy 7, 2007 34
CONDIÇÕES SOCIAIS: MELHORES OU PIORES NA AMÉRICA LATINA? Juy 7, 2007 35
INDICADORES SOCIAIS Education Inequality Health How does Latin America compare? Much more inequality than other regions How might inequality affect growth? Educational levels poorer Yet social spending strong (Ocampo) Juy 7, 2007 36
Educação: baixo rendimento em matemática Juy 7, 2007 37
Desigualdade na região: visão comparativa Juy 7, 2007 38
E niveis de desigualdade são elevados em quase todos os paises LATIN AMERICA: HOUSEHOLD SHARE IN TOTAL INCOME BY INCOME QUINTILE, 2002 70 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 Richer Q. / Poorer Q. 30 20 10 0 Uruguay a/ México Ecuador a/ Argentina a/ Guatemala Chile Venezuela Costa Rica Peru El Salvador Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Colombia a/ Panama Dominican R Brazil Bolivia 15 10 5 0 Quintile Poorer quintile Richer quintile Richer Q. / Poorer Q. Ocampo Juy 7, 2007 39
O esforço da região na area social tem sido notavel. (Gasto social como percentagem do PIB) 16 Education Health Social Security Housing 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990-1991 1996-1997 2000-2001 Juy 7, 2007 40
..Em quase todos os paises latinos Social expenditure as a percentage of GDP 1990-1991, 1996-1997 and 2000-2001 (Percentages) Social expenditure as a percentage of GDP Juy 7, 2007 41
Taxas de pobreza na região: melhoras recentes Juy 7, 2007 42
Gasto social e desigualdade Juy 7, 2007 43
Fundamentos: Outros Aspetos Importantes Openness and trade Latin America far less open than other regions Evidence from the Brazil case? Financial crises Much more frequent than in other regions Vulnerability to terms of trades shocks. And to sudden stops in capital inflows Juy 7, 2007 44
Abertura comercial: o caso do Brasil 250 200 % GDP 150 100 50 0 Malaysia S.Korea Chile Thailand Indonesia S.Africa Russia Mexico Brazil Juy 7, 2007 45
Estrutura das exportações Juy 7, 2007 46
America Latina e as altas e baixas dos commodities COMMODITY PRICES 2000=100 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ALL FOOD AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS MINERALS, ORES AND METALS Ocampo Juy 7, 2007 47
E o vai e vem dos fluxos de capitas externos 20 15 Russian Crisis Lula wins! 10 Africa Latin America 5 0 Asia 98-Jan 98-Apr 98-Jul 98-Oct 99-Jan 99-Apr 99-Jul 99-Oct 00-Jan 00-Apr 00-Jul 00-Oct 01-Jan 01-Apr 01-Jul 01-Oct 02-Jan 02-Apr 02-Jul 02-Oct 03-Jan 03-Apr 03-Jul 03-Oct 04-Jan 04-Apr 04-Jul 04-Oct 05-Jan 05-Apr 05-Jul 05-Oct 06-Jan Juy 7, 2007 48
Risco Pais: America Latina contra Asia Juy 7, 2007 49
Uma região ainda vulnerável Juy 7, 2007 50
Spreads bancários domesticos elevados Juy 7, 2007 51
Concluindo: o que fazer para acelerar o Reform more! crescimento da região? Reforms went too far government needs to be reintroduced! Reforms were irrelevant fundamental constraints must be removed!! Juy 7, 2007 52
Mais reformas neoliberais Adiantam sim ou não? Industry level studies after reforms Privatization, openness correlated with productivity Flaws in the evidence: Level vs. growth effects Economy-wide implications? Cross-country regressions: Reforms good for growth in Latin America! (2.5-3% per annum in GDP) Flaws in the evidence: Half-full vs. half-empty: most gains due to stabilization, not to reforms Reforms are not the same as fundamentals Information drawn from too large a sample how fix the problems in this country? Juy 7, 2007 53
Reformas neoliberais foram excessivas e mau pensadas! Growth performance did not improve after reforms Unintended side effects (e.g., fiscal costs of pension reform, loss of employment) were more serious Flaws in the evidence: Conflates 1980s and 1990s (Ocampo chart) Exaggerates the accomplishments of the 1960s and 1970s(JZ) Non-reformers (Venezuela, Argentina) are growing: Role of government, in particular, not well appreciated Infrastructure needed for economic growth Extra credit reading: IMF 2005, Bolivia: Ex-Post Assessment of Long-term Program Engagement, Country Report 05/139 Also, see other ex-post assessments Juy 7, 2007 54
Reformas foram irrelevantes Reforms did not remove the fundamental constraints. A search for the Holy Grail Reforms led to a growth spurt, but not to sustained growth Institutions matter! Property rights, competition and incentives for innovation and productivity growth, quality government services and policies See IADB 2006 report on policymaking Human capital and education matter Plus other factors as well: Geography Income distribution Social cohesion Juy 7, 2007 55
Conclusões e Debate Latin America does suffer from a number of common problems: Lack of savings Poorly functioning labor markets Lack of openness Lots of inequality At the same time: more country-specific and reform-specific analysis is needed One size does not fit all. Country problems are NOT all the same If fundamentals really matter: Can institutions be reformed, and how? And where do you begin? Juy 7, 2007 56
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