CONSENSUS FORECAST LEBANON 2 NOTES 5 PUBLICATION DATE 14 FORECASTS COLLECTED 7 April - 13 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 13 NEXT EDITION 12 May 215 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior RICARD TORNÉ Senior OLGA COSCODAN CARL KELLY TERESA KERSTING DIRINA MANÇELLARI ANGELA BOUZANIS CECILIA SIMKIEVICH ROBERT HILL ERIC DENIS MIRIAM DOWD Editor
LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Dirina Mançellari 211-13 214-16 217-19 Population (million): 4.4 4.6 4.7 GDP (USD bn): 43.8 51.5 61.7 GDP per capita (USD): 9,884 11,35 13,158 GDP growth (%): 2.2 2.3 3.7 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.8-8.2-8.2 Public Debt (% of GDP): 133 139 135 Inflation (%): 5.5 2.4 3. Current Account (% of GDP): -16.8-16.2-14.1 External Debt (% of GDP): 54.3 59.6 65.1 Outlook improves In 214, the Lebanese economy slowed down as a result of political tensions and spillover effects from the civil war in Syria. GDP grew 2.% last year, which marked a deterioration from the 3.% growth observed in the previous year. According to a recent report from the Central Bank, despite the challenging environment, the country s banking sector remained strong and liquid last year, thus retaining significant capacity to finance the government s needs. In more recent news, the closure of the last open border between Syria and Jordan is expected to weigh heavily on Lebanese exports as it will deny land access to its main trading countries. As a result, the Lebanese factories will shift to shipping their products in order to reach trading partners, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Looking forward, the drop in oil prices is expected to support domestic consumption and provide some relief to s current account and fiscal deficits. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.2% in 215, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s estimate. For 216, the panel expects growth of 2.8%. Consumer prices dropped 3.% year-on-year in February (January: -3.8% year-on-year), thus marking the third consecutive month of falling annual consumer prices. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.1% in 215 and 3.2% in 216. 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Real Sector Population (million) 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 GDP per capita (USD) 8,892 9,113 9,996 1,543 1,857 11,254 11,84 12,433 13,135 13,95 GDP (USD bn) 38.6 39.9 44.2 47.1 49. 51.3 54.3 57.7 61.6 65.8 GDP (LBP tn) 57.9 6.4 66.5 71.2 73.1 76.2 8.9 86.1 91.8 98.1 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 8.3 4.3 1. 7.1 3.2 4.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 8..9 2.8 3. 2. 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.7 4. Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.5 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.8 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.6-5.9-8.6-8.9-8.2-8.3-8.2-8.2-8.2-8.2 Public Debt (% of GDP) 137 134 131 134 134 144 14 138 135 133 Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4. 5. 6.6 4.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.1 3. 2.9 Repo Rate (%, eop) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.13 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 1,51 1,56 1,56 1,54 1,512 1,57 1,59 1,59 1,59 1,59 External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -18. -9.1-18.1-23.1-2.1-14.3-14.2-14. -14.1-14.2 Current Account Balance (USD bn) -7. -3.6-8. -1.9-9.9-7.3-7.7-8.1-8.7-9.4 Trade Balance (USD bn) -12.3-13.9-14.7-15.3-16.6-14. -14.5-15.9-17.2-18.4 Exports (USD bn) 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.7 Imports (USD bn) 17.7 19.4 2.3 2.5 21.1 18.2 19.4 2.6 22.3 23.9 Exports (annual variation in %) 15.9 -.7 3.7-7.9-12.2-7.9 15.5 7.7 4.4 4.2 Imports (annual variation in %) 11.5 9.2 5.1.8 3.1-13.9 6.4 6.6 7.9 7.3 International Reserves (USD bn) 31.5 33.7 37.2 36.7 39.5 36.7 38.6 37.7 37.3 36.9 International Reserves (months of imports) 21.3 2.9 21.9 21.5 22.5 24.2 23.9 21.9 2.1 18.5 External Debt (USD bn) 2.6 2.9 24.4 26.1 25.6 32.3 34.5 37.5 4.1 42.8 External Debt (% of GDP) 53.3 52.4 55.1 55.5 52.3 63. 63.5 64.9 65.2 65.1 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 2
Economic Indicators Real GDP Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Current Account Int. Reserves variation in % % of GDP variation in % % of GDP USD bn Individual Forecasts 215 216 215 216 215 216 215 216 215 216 Byblos Bank Group 2. - -8.2 - -.6 - -15.3-35.5 - Capital Economics 2. 2. -6. -6.. 2.5-14. -14. - - Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2. -9.7-9.8.9 2.5-21.1-2.1 - - Credit Agricole 3.2 3.5 - - 2. 2.8-9.8-1.5 - - EIU 3. 3.5-6.4-6.5.9 2.3-9.5-1.8 41.1 43.2 Emirates NBD 1.7 3.1-9.5-8.7 6. 5. -12.8-12.6 38.4 42.6 Euler Hermes 2.5 3. - - - - - - - - Frontier Strategy Group 2.1 2.3 - - 3.8 5.8 - - - - HSBC 1. 1.9-11.1-1.8 2.5 2.5-13.3-12.4 36. 38.2 Julius Baer 2.5 3.5 - - 4. 3. - - - - Oxford Economics 2.5 3. -7.3-7.2 1.2 3. -21.9-22.9 32.2 3.3 Standard Chartered 2.2 3.5 - - 2.7 3. -11. -1. - - Summary Minimum 1. 1.9-11.1-1.8 -.6 2.3-21.9-22.9 32.2 3.3 Maximum 3.2 3.5-6. -6. 6. 5.8-9.5-1. 41.1 43.2 Median 2.2 3. -8.2-8. 2. 2.9-13.3-12.5 36. 4.4 Consensus 2.2 2.8-8.3-8.2 2.1 3.2-14.3-14.2 36.7 38.6 1 GDP variation in % 2 Inflation in % 3 Current Account % of GDP 15 1 World 15 1 3 15 5 5-15 -5 2 25 21 215-5 2 25 21 215-3 2 25 21 215 4 GDP evolution of forecasts 5 Inflation evolution of forecasts 6 Current Account evol of fcsts 3.5 3. 9 days ago 6 days ago 3 days ago Current 3.5 3. 9 days ago 6 days ago 3 days ago Current -1-11 215 216-12 2.5 2.5-13 2. 215 216 2. 215 216-14 -15 9 days ago 6 days ago 3 days ago Current Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of (BDL, Banque du Liban) and the Central Administration of Statistics of (CAS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BDL. 4 GDP, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 4 months. 2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: CAS. 5 Inflation, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 4 months. 3 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BDL. 6 Current account balance, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 4 months. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3
Fact Sheet General Data Official name: Lebanese Republic Capital: Beirut (1.9m) cities: Tripoli (.2m) Sidon (.1m) Area (km2): 1,4 Population (million, 214 est.): 4.5 Population density (per km2, 214): 434 Population growth rate (%, 214 est.): 9.4 Life expectancy (years, 214 est.): 77.2 Illiteracy rate (%, 27): 1.4 Language: Arabic Measures: Metric system Time: GMT+3 in the Region Population %-share in 36.2% Iraq 9.4% Algeria 1.2% 1.2% Egypt 22.5% Iran 2.5% 42.3% GDP %-share in Israel 9.2% 1.4% UAE 12.3% Saudi Arabia 21.9% Iran 12.8% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 18. Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 81 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 7.5 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 1. Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 9. Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 234 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 14. Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 12.9 Oil Supply (thousand bpd):. Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 15 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 16.4 Economic Structure 1 8 6 4 2 GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % 24-6 27-9 21-12 Agriculture Manufacturing Industry Services 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 24-6 27-9 21-12 Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 8 Railways (km): 41 Roadways (km): 6,97 Waterways (km): - Chief Ports: Beirut, Tripoli Trade Structure -4 Primary markets share in % Political Data Prime Minister: Tammam Salam Last elections: 7 June 29 Next elections: 217 Central Bank Governor: Riad T. Salamé Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: B2 Negative S&P: B- Stable Fitch Ratings: B Negative 27.3% South Africa 19.3% Exports Switzerland 12.2% Saudi United Arab Arabia Emirates 8.% 7.9% EU-27 9.9% 15.4% 13.1% 22.2% Primary products share in % Imports U.S.A. 11.2% EU- 27 17.7% Italy 8.6% China France 8.3% Asia 7.2% ex-japan 6.% Germany 5.6% Strengths Weaknesses Food 17.7% 5.2% Food 16.4% 3.3% Support from international financial markets Discovery of offshore natural gas reserves Robust banking system Political fragmentation with latent risk of civil war High exposure to regional geopolitical tensions Large public debt Ores & Metals 12.1% Exports Manufact. Products 64.9% Mineral Fuels 25.1% Imports Manufact. Products 55.2% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 4
Notes Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries. Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member. Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members. (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. GCC (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as Gulf Cooperation Council, 6 countries): Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela. Additional Countries: South Africa and Switzerland. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 215 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Middle East and North Africa is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657, E-81 Barcelona, Spain E-mail: info@focus-economics.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Middle East and North Africa ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,6 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 657, 81, Barcelona, Spain +34 932 651 4 subscribers@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com