Determinants of International Migration in Egypt: Results of the 2013 Egypt-HIMS Rawia El-Batrawy Egypt-HIMS Executive Manager, CAPMAS, Egypt Samir Farid MED-HIMS Chief Technical Advisor ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 18-20 May 2016 1
Outline Scope and Methodology Characteristics of Households Current Migrants Return Migrants Non-migrants & Prospective Migrants Forced Migrants 2
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Egypt-HIMS Survey The Egypt Household International Migration Survey (Egypt- HIMS) was conducted in 2013 by the Statistical Office of Egypt (CAPMAS). The survey was conducted as part of the MED-HIMS Programme. The survey collected data on four groups of individuals: o Current migrants o Return migrants o Non-migrants and prospective migrants o Forced migrants (of citizens of other countries residing in Egypt.) 4
The Sample A probability sample of around 90,000 Egyptian households was selected for the survey. Interviews were successfully completed in more than 83,000 households. Of this number of households we found: o 6.3 % are households with current migrants ; and o 5.6% are households with return migrants. 5
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Households and Population Urban-Rural Residence 100% 19.7 25.8 80% 52.5 60% Most of the migrant households reside in rural areas; 80 % of the current migrant households and 74 % of the return migrant households. 40% 20% 80.3 74.2 47.5 Current migrants come from larger households than nonmigrants. 0% Current migrant Return migrant Non migrant Urban Rural 7
Households and Population Headship of households Among the non-migrant households, the traditional pattern of male-headed households is most intact in both urban and rural areas. The overall percentage of male-headed households is 85 percent. A similar pattern is also shown for the return migrant households but with a higher proportion of households headed by males (92 percent). A very different pattern is observed among the current migrant households where only 51 percent of these households are male-headed. 8
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Current Migrants Age-sex composition of current migrants Heavily distorted demographically. Inverted U-shaped pattern with respect to current age. Low level among young migrants aged 15-19 years (2.5%). 25 20 15 10 14 22.9 17.7 14.6 10.9 9 It has a sharp peak extending over the age range 20-34 years which includes almost 60% of current migrants. 5 0 2.5 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.3 Current age 10
Current Migrants Age-sex composition Migration from Egypt is predominantly male only two percent of current migrants aged 15 years or more are females. Female 2% Male 98% Male Female 11
Current Migrants Education A majority of current migrants are well educated. More than 63% have completed secondary education or more, including 48% who completed secondary education and 15% who have university education. 60 48.3 40 20 13.7 8.2 8.8 5.8 15.2 0 No education Some primary Primary (complete) Preparatory (complete) Secondary (complete) Higher (complete) 12
Current Migrants Who and Where: Destination at first migration The vast majority (95%) of current migrants from Egypt go to Arab countries, mainly in the Gulf. Other Only less than 5% go outside of the Arab region, predominantly Europe (3%), and North America and Australia (1%). This pattern indicates that in Egypt South-South migration is far more prevalent than South-North migration. North America Europe Arab region 0 50 100 13
Current Migrants Migration patterns: Education Migrants to Europe and North America tend to be better educated than migrants to the Arab region. The educational level of migrants of younger ages is higher than of those of older ages. A remarkable increase is reported for the proportion of migrants with secondary education and above from 50 percent for the age cohort 45-49 to 80 percent for the younger cohort aged 25-29. 14
Current Migrants Choice of destination At the country level, Saudi Arabia stands out as the leading destination for emigrants from Egypt (40 percent of total emigrants), followed by Libya (21 percent), Kuwait (14 percent), Jordan (11 percent), UAE (4 percent), with a further 6 percent residing in other Arab countries. Europe and North America account for only 4 percent of total current migrants. Top European destinations include Italy, followed by France and Germany. Other North America Italy Holland Germany France Other Arab countries United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Qatar Libya Lebanon Kuwait Jordan Iraq 1.1 0.6 2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 4.2 3.2 1.5 0.1 13.5 11.0 21.2 39.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 15
Current Migrants Migration trajectories Around 13 percent of current migrants moved to two or more destinations: The vast majority of these emigrants (97%) returned to Egypt before moving to the current destination. When: Year of Migration Around 17 percent of all current migrants have moved to the current destination before the year 2000, and 32 percent during the decade 2000-2009, while a high of 51 percent have moved to current destination in the years from 2010 to the survey date in 2013. 16
Current Migrants When: Year of Migration This dramatic rise in the volume of out-migration during the period from 2010 to mid-2013 coincided with the profound transformations that took place in Egypt during that period and the new realities that were forced on the fabric of Egyptian society which must have introduced factors of change across the demographic and socioeconomic scene of the country. 17
Current Migrants Length of Migration in Current Destination 57% have been in current destination for less than 5 years; 18% for 5-9 years; and 25 percent for 15 or more years. Migrants who moved to Europe have longer times of stay in their current destination than those migrants who moved to the Arab region. 18
Current Migrants Why: Motives for Migration Around 87 percent of current migrants moved abroad for economic reasons, 10 percent for social reasons, and 3 percent for other reasons. The three most important economic motives for first migration from Egypt were: to improve standard of living (34%), followed by income in Egypt was insufficient (25%), and lack of employment opportunities (12%). 2.6 0.9 9.2 0.3 6.6 6 3.4 11.5 34.3 25.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 19
Current Migrants Why: Motives for Migration These results suggest that there are two main types of economic motives for migration from Egypt: the first is migration out of necessity mainly due to poverty, lack of employment opportunities, and low salaries, and the consequent difficulties in sustaining the family; the second type is migration out of choice where migration represents an attractive alternative mainly associated with the desire for livelihood diversification. 20
Current Migrants Why: Motives for Migration The results indicate that the 87% of current migrants who migrated for economic reasons include: 40 percent whose migration was out of necessity, and 47 percent whose migration was out of choice. 21
Current Migrants How: The Migration Process People migrate because they expect the benefits of the migration to exceed the costs. The major economic costs for prospective migrants involve those relating to the job search process and information about jobs available to the prospective migrant before migration, beginning with: - contacts with labour recruiters, whether from the country itself or a potential destination country, - obtaining documents required to cross national borders, and - travelling to the destination country. Once at destination, higher earnings are expected to more than offset these migration costs. 22
Current Migrants Pre-migration contact with recruiters Obtaining the necessary information on employment opportunities is the first economic cost of migration. Pre-migration provision of written contract Around 80% of migrants who had a job arranged by a recruiter were provided with pre-migration written contract. Compliance of employer at destination with premigration contract Only 80 percent of employers at destination complied with the terms of the contract. 23
Current Migrants Payment to facilitate the migration Migrants are not supposed to pay for the cost of recruitment according to ILO Conventions. The results, however, indicate that migration agents and labour brokers organize most recruitment of Egyptian migrant workers. 24
Current Migrants Payment to facilitate the migration Around 77 percent of current migrants (who moved to first destination since the year 2000) paid money to get a work permit or facilitate the migration. The total amount paid was more than 38 million Egyptian pounds ( E). The average amount paid per migrant was E10,350. 16.6 6.6 76.8 Paid money Did not pay money Missing 25
Current Migrants Admission Documents and Compliance with Regulations Among current migrants who moved to country of current residence, 97 % had legal and valid admission documents, while 3 percent had no visa or other valid document. Illegal border crossing was exceptionally high among the small number of migrants currently residing in Europe. 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 96.2 Arab region 28.3 70.5 11.3 88.7 Europe North America 2.6 95.4 Total Missing Did not need visa No visa or valid document Visa/Work permit/ Other valid document 26
Current Migrants The Role of Networks Two-thirds of current migrants had networks in the country of destination before departure from Egypt. Assistance provided by networks More than four-fifths of migrants who had a network at destination received assistance from relatives or friends whether before the move and /or upon arrival in the destination country. 27
Current Migrants Economic activity Most migrants in the Arab region are found in the construction sector (47%), followed by the wholesale and retail trade (12%), agriculture (11%) and manufacturing (7%). In Europe, they are found in the construction sector (36%) and accommodation and food service activities (29%). 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Distribution of current migrants, who are currently working, by major economic activity, according to current destination(%) 16.8 18.3 21.4 4.4 2.1 11.8 10.2 28.5 13 47.2 7.1 10.6 9.2 35.5 32 16.4 6.3 2.2 7 Other Education Accommodation and food service activities Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles Construction Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry and fishing 28
Current Migrants Occupation before and after migration The results show a significant change in labour market status following migration. o Among migrants from rural areas in Egypt, the main occupational change has been in the form of a significant transition from farming to construction and trading, with others being involved in unstable or casual employment. o Migrants from urban areas in Egypt, by contrast, display more diversity in their occupations. Around 30 percent of urban migrants fill the upper level occupations in managerial, professional and technical positions, but a higher proportion is in the lower echelons of the occupational structure. 29
Current Migrants Occupation before and after migration This pattern indicates that the incidence of overeducation is consistently higher for young migrants currently residing in the Arab region and Europe, reflecting a considerable level of skills mismatch, associated with a tendency on the part of receiving countries, particularly in the Gulf, to absorb Egyptian labour force in specific occupations. 30
Current Migrants Benefits provided to migrants by current employer The majority of Egyptian migrants are not provided with any form of benefits by current employers. For example: o only 21 percent are covered with health insurance; o and only 18 percent are given paid annual leave. 31
Current Migrants Migration Intentions 61% of current migrants intend to stay in their current host country; 18 % intend to return to Egypt; while 21% were not sure whether or not to return. Distribution of current migrants by migration intentions(%) 18.1 20.9 61 Intention to stay in host country Intention to leave host country Not sure whether or not to stay in host country 32
Current Migrants Money taken or transferred to support the migration The effect of remittances will depend on their size and frequency. These in turn depend on the type of migration, the type of job on which migrants are employed, their income, their living costs which determine their capacity to save, and the needs of the family members they have left behind. Overall picture: 70% of current migrants took money or transferred funds to support the migration to current destination. Source of money taken or transferred: 2 main sources of financial support: 51% personal savings 33% savings of household head or other household members 12% took loans from friends or relatives to finance the migration move. Savings of household head or other member 33% Loans from friends or relatives 12% Other 4% Personal savings 51% Personal savings Savings of household head or other member Loans from friends or relatives Other 33
Current Migrants Remittances Remittances sent by current migrants Around 70 percent of current migrants did send money to their origin households in the 12-month period preceding the survey: o o o o o 20 percent sent remittances 10 or more times, followed by 16 percent sent 3 or 4 times, 13 percent sent 5 or 6 times, 13 percent sent once or twice, and 9 percent sent between 7 and 9 times. The average number of times current migrants sent remittances to origin households in the 12-month period preceding the survey was around 6, which means that origin households in Egypt received remittances once in every two months. 34
Current Migrants Channels used most by current migrants to send money to Egypt The majority of current migrants used two channels to send remittances to Egypt, namely bank transfers (cheques, drafts, direct deposit, etc.) used by 68%, and through friends or relatives used by 21%. The third most used channel was sending money through agent or courier (7%). Overall, around 72 percent of remittance senders and receivers were within the formal financial system in Egypt. 35
Current Migrants Uses of remittances Received remittances are usually used for multiple purposes. Top 3 uses of remittances cited: o 86% daily household needs o 44% pay for schooling of household members o 30% medical bills Around 12% of remittances were used for savings and investments. Saving Pay for medical bills Pay for schooling Pay off debt 11.6 12.8 30.2 43.7 These results clearly indicate that remittances play a significant role in Egyptian household financial management and contribute to improved standards of living, better health and education, and human and financial asset formation. Purchase/pay for house/dwelling Daily needs 8.8 85.9 0 50 100 36
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Return Migrants Age at return Almost half of migrants returned to Egypt between ages 30 and 44 years), and about onethird returned before the age of 30 years. 17% of migrants returned to Egypt between ages 45 and 59 years. Distribution of all return migrants according to Age at return to country of origin(%) 16.7 47.8 2.1 33.4 15-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 38
Return Migrants Last Destination Distribution of return migrants according to Destination at last migration(%) The Arab region was the last destination for 95.4% of return migrants, against 3.2% for Europe, 0.6% for North America and other areas (0.8%). 3.2 0.6 0.8 Arab region Europe North America Other 95.4 39
Return Migrants Length of residence in last destination Nearly half of return migrants stayed for a period of less than five years in the last country of destination; Those who stayed 15 years or more accounted for 21 % of the return migrants, 18% stayed for a period 5-9 years. Distribution of return migrants according to Length of residence in last destination(%) 12.4 21 18.1 48.5 0-4 0-4 5-9 9-May 10-14 14-Oct 15+ +15 40
Return Migrants Uses of money brought back 87 % of return migrants indicated that they used remittances to meet their households daily needs such as food and clothing for family. Distribution of the use of money brought back by return migrants(%) 6.1 11.9 12 3.7 5.3 2.6 2.8 2.1 3.5 13.6 24.2 22.1 29.8 35.2 41.6 Only 12% of remittances was Improve house Buy apartment/house devoted to financial Pay off debt investment, mainly as savings Pay off medical bills in the banking system or in the post office. Pay for schooling/training Buy other household goods Meet daily needs 86.8 Other Save money (bank/post Financial investment, savings Invest in non-farm business Buy farm inputs/implements Improve land Rent more land Buy land Pay for social functions 0 20 40 60 80 100 41
Return Migrants Remittances sent by return migrants 80% of return migrants who returned from the Arab region & Europe sent money to Egypt within the last 12-month period before returning, compared to 41% of return migrants from North America. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percentage of return migrants who sent any money within the 12-month period preceding return by region of last destinations (%) 79.6 80.7 Arab region Europe 40.5 North America 66.1 Other 79.4 Total 42
Return Migrants Perceptions of return migrants experience 26% reported no change between current living standard in Egypt compared to that in the last destination. 35 % reported slightly worse current living conditions compared to last country of destination. Around 32 % reported much better or better current living conditions compared to last country of destination. Distribution of return migrants by perception of their current living standard compared with that prevalent in last country abroad (%) 35.2 6.6 0.3 9.2 26.3 Much better Better No change Slightly worse Much worse Don t know 22.4 43
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Prospective Migrants Migration Intentions among Non-migrants Distribution of non-migrants according their migration intentions(%) A majority of 70 % intend to remain in Egypt; Only around 11 % of non migrants intend to move to another country; the remaining 19 % being undecided. 10.5 19.5 70 Remain in Egypt Move to another country Undecided 45
Prospective Migrants Intended Destinations of Prospective Migrants The Arab region is the most preferred destination for prospective migrants by 67%. Distribution of prospective migrants by intended destinations 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 66.9 14.7 11.0 5.8 1.5 Arab region Europe North America Other Don't know 46
Prospective Migrants Main reason for intention to migrate distribution of prospective migrants by the most important reason of intended migration Economic reasons represent the most important reasons of intended migration. Improving living standard is by far the most important reason for the intended migration (40%). To reunite with family To get married / spouse waiting for me there Lack of security in country Poor job, low pay Other Work benefits here unsatisfactory Unemployed and can t find work High cost of living To obtain more education for self Poor working conditions Income insufficient here/ Higher wages there Good business opportunities there 0.6 1.1 2 2 5 5.1 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.6 7.7 12.6 To improve living standard 38.8 0 20 40 60 47
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Forced Migrants Country of origin of forced migrants Overall picture for forced migrants population: 82% from Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region 18% from sub-saharan Africa Forced migrants population by country of origin: 1. Syria (42%) 2. Sudan (32%) 3. Somalia (9%) 4. Iraq (8%) 5. Ethiopia (4%), Eritrea (4%) 6. South Sudan (1%) Syria 42% Eritrea 4% Sudan 32% Ethiopia 4% Iraq 8% Eritrea Ethiopia Iraq Somalia South Sudan Sudan Syria Somalia 9% South Sudan 1% 49
Forced Migrants Population by Sex 68 % are males and nearly 32 % are females. Population by Age The highest percentage of refugees was among those under age 15 years (37%), followed by those in the age range 15-29 years (32%). Sex distribution of forced migrants (%) 32% Male Female 68% Age distribution of forced migrants (%) 3.2 8.9 Under 15 36.6 15-29 19.8 30-44 45-59 60+ 31.6 50
Forced Migrants Main reason for leaving country of origin Distribution of forced migrants by the main reason for leaving country of origin for the first time(%) 79% of the forced migrants left their country of origin because of generalized insecurity or war related reasons, 20 % left due to persecution related reasons, while family reunification and other reasons accounted for less than 1%. 100 80 60 40 20 0 45.1 54.9 21.9 78.1 86.8 86.1 83.3 12.4 13.9 16.7 63.2 36.2 98.6 1.2 Generalized insecurity / war Persecution related reasons 51
Forced Migrants Asylum applications Around 98 % applied for asylum to UNHCR in Egypt. Refugee status determination Overall, 41 percent of asylum seekers received recognition of their refugee status, while 58 percent were still waiting for a decision on their asylum application. Only less than one percent of asylum applications were rejected. 52
Forced Migrants Plans for the future Distribution of forced migrants aged 15 years or more by plans for the future A majority of 56 % intend to move onwards to another country; 22 % plan to return to their home country but under certain conditions; 56.1 1.6 18.9 22.2 1.2 Stay in Egypt Return back home without conditions Return back home under certain conditions while 19 % plan to stay in Egypt. Move onwards to another country Don t know 53
Thank you. 54