SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE REGINA METROPOLITAN AREA Prepared for the: Regina Public Library Staff Development Day November 20, 2015 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H1 306-522-5515 sasktrends@sasktel.net www.sasktrends.ca
OUTLINE Demographic Trends Births and Deaths International Migration Interprovincial Migration Intraprovincial Migration Age Distribution Diversity Members of a Visible Minority Group Aboriginal People Recent Immigrants Language Nov 20, 2015 2
DATA SOURCES AND NOTES Regina Beach Lumsden Edenwold No. 158 This material was prepared by Doug Elliott from QED Information Systems Inc., a Regina based consulting firm and the publisher of Sask Trends Monitor. Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada but the estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor. Belle Plaine Pense No. 160 Pense Lumsden No. 189 Regina Sherwood No. 159 Pilot Butte White City Balgonie The data are current as of November 2015. Some figures may be revised in future releases. All of the statistics refer to residents of the Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) which includes the surrounding bedroom communities. In 2011, 92% of the CMA population lived in the city proper. Nov 20, 2015 3
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
NOTES There are four interrelated factors that determine the size and competition of the city s population. The natural growth rate is the number of births less the number of deaths. The direct movement to or from other countries is called, respectively, emigration or immigration. The migration to or from other provinces is called interprovincial migration. The migration to or from other parts of the province is called intraprovincial migration. These factors affect the age distribution of the population as well as the absolute size and they are related in complex ways. For example, migration tends to occur among young adults which, in turn, affects the number of births. As another example, mortality rates are affected by the extent to which older people move to other provinces when they retire. Most demographic data are published on a census year basis which runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following year. Nov 20, 2015 5
BIRTHS AND DEATHS (NATURAL GROWTH) 3,500 Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in Regina CMA, 2001-02 to 2013-2014 In this figure, the number of births is in blue and the number of deaths in red. The difference between them (i.e. natural growth) is represented by the yellow bars. 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Births Deaths There was a decline in the number of births during the late 1990s that was caused by lower fertility rates compounded by a drop in the number of women in the childbearing age group. Recent increases are the result of a) more young women in the city and b) a slight increase in fertility rates. The slow but steady increase in the number of deaths is occurring because lower mortality rates are offset by an increasing number of people in older age groups. Outmigration of seniors is also a factor. 0 2001-2002 2003-2004 Natural Increase 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 Natural growth adds 1,200 to 1,400 persons per year to the population. July to June Nov 20, 2015 6
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 International Immigration to the Regina CMA,2001-02 to 2013-2014 These counts cover only landed immigrants those who are entitled to live in Canada as long as they wish. Temporary foreign residents are not included. Immigration has increased exponentially because of the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP). The number of immigrants is still small, however, compared with other cities. The number of people who permanently emigrate to other countries is difficult to measure but is thought to be small. 1,000 500 0 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 Retention of international immigrants has been a problem in the past. How many of these newer immigrants will stay in Regina is an open question. July to June Nov 20, 2015 7
INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION 1,000 Net Interprovincial Migration to/from Regina CMA, 2001-02 to 2013-14 The interprovincial migration figures in this graph show the net flow those who come to the province less those who leave. 500 0 (500) In the early 2000s, interprovincial migration was a drain on the city s population. It is now more or less neutral with the number coming roughly the same as the number leaving. (1,000) (1,500) (2,000) (2,500) 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 July to June Nov 20, 2015 8
INTRAPROVINCIAL MIGRATION 1,200 Net Intraprovincial Migration to/from Regina CMA, 2001-02 to 2013-14 Regina has always been a popular destination for those living in rural Saskatchewan. 1,000 Flows from elsewhere in the province have averaged 700 persons per year in the past four years. 800 600 400 200 0 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 July to June Nov 20, 2015 9
DESTINATIONS FOR INTER/INTRAPROVINCIAL MIGRANTS Winnipeg Most Common Cities of Origin/Destination flows from July 2012 to July 2013 Coming to Regina Leaving Regina The Regina CMA is a net exporter of people to Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon. Recently, Regina has become a net importer from Toronto. Vancouver Toronto Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Nov 20, 2015 10
SUMMARY OF POPULATION CHANGES 5,000 4,000 3,000 Components of Population Change, Regina CMA 2003-04 2013-14 The population of the Regina CMA is growing because: natural growth has increased; international immigration is much higher than in the past; and interprovincial migration has stopped being a drain on the population. 2,000 1,000 0 (1,000) (2,000) Natural Growth International Interprovincial Intraprovincial Migration Nov 20, 2015 11
TOTAL POPULATION 250 240 thousands Total Population, Regina CMA The net effect of all the population flows was, from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s, a very slow increase in the city s population. 230 220 The population started to grow more quickly in 2007 and has averaged 2.9% per year in the three years ending in July 2014. 210 200 190 average = 2.0% per year average = 2.9% per year We can expect the population to continue to grow in the short term but probably at a slower pace. 180 170 160 150 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 as of July: Nov 20, 2015 12
COMPARISON WITH SASKATOON 310 290 thousands Comparison of Populations Saskatoon is growing even more quickly than Regina. The average annual increase in the five years from 2009 to 2014 has been 3.2% in Saskatoon compared with 2.6% in Regina. 270 Saskatoon 250 230 Regina 210 190 170 150 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 as of July: Nov 20, 2015 13
AGE DISTRIBUTIONS David Foote in his Boom, Bust, and Echo book has famously said that age is 80% of everything.
AGE STRUCTURE OF THE REGINA CMA POPULATION The baby boom generation is now concentrated in their fifties although the oldest are 67 years of age. (There is some debate about the exact starting and stopping ages.) The peak of the echo generation is now among those in their early 20s. The size of the echo generation in Regina is above-average because Aboriginal people and recent immigrants are also concentrated in this age group. The increase in the number of births noted earlier is mainly the result of the increase in the population of family formation age group, that is, 20 to 34 years of age. These infants will eventually become the echo of the echo generation. Nov 20, 2015 15
REGINA CMA POPULATION BY INDIVIDUAL AGE, 2014 5,000 Regina CMA Population by Individual Years of Age, as of July 2014 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Gen Z Born after 2004 1,500 1,000 500 Generation Y the Millenials Born 1985 to 2004 Bust or Gen X Born 1965 to 1984 Baby Boomers Born 1947 to 1964 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 age as of July 2014 Nov 20, 2015 16
COMPARISON WITH PROVINCIAL POPULATION 2.0% 1.8% Comparison of Regina CMA Population and Provincial Population, July 2014 Regina CMA 1.6% 1.4% Saskatchewan 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 age as of July 2014 Nov 20, 2015 17
DIVERSITY MEASURES These data are from the Census (prior to 2011) and the National Household Survey (NHS) which is the name given by Statistics Canada to the voluntary part of the 2011 Census. There is some concern about the quality of NHS data because of the voluntary nature of the survey.
RESIDENCE FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS Saskatoon Population Born Outside of Canada by Period of Immigration, Saskatchewan, 2011 12.1% These figures cover the population in both the cities and in the surrounding bedroom communities (e.g. Lumsden, Martensville). Regina Swift Current North Battleford 7.2% 8.4% 11.6% In 2011, 88.4% of Regina CMA residents were born in Canada. The number of immigrants in general and recent immigrants in particular is higher in the larger urban centres. Estevan 6.2% These percentages will have increased since 2011. Moose Jaw Prince Albert 6.0% 4.8% 2006 or later (including nonpermanent residents) Yorkton 4.5% Before 2006 Rest of Saskatchewan 3.4% Total 7.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% Nov 20, 2015 19
AGE GROUPS FOR IMMIGRANTS IN REGINA CMA, 2011 Age of Immigrants, Regina CMA, 2011 Immigrants fall into two distinctly different age groups. 65 plus 55 to 64 45 to 54 Recent immigrants are younger, on average. Almost one-half (47%) are in the 25 to 44 age group. This is the mobile age group and the immigrant nominee program targets younger workers. Another 27% are their children. 35 to 44 25 to 34 Those who immigrated before 2006 are much older. Their age distribution resembles the distribution for those born in Canada. 15 to 24 Under 15 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Immigrated 2006 or later Immigrated before 2006 Born in Canada Nov 20, 2015 20
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS Most Common Countries of Birth for Recent Imigrants to the Regina CMA, 2011 Philippines 2,590 Among the 8,150 Regina CMA residents who came to Canada after 2006, a third are from the Philippines. India China Burma (Myanmar) Pakistan Bangladesh South Korea Thailand Uzbekistan United States Ukraine Russian Federation Nigeria Viet Nam 695 480 340 325 265 235 225 215 200 185 170 155 135 After that, there is a wide variety of countries of birth 44 in total with China and India being the most common. All others 1,935 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Nov 20, 2015 21
RECENT IMMIGRANTS, CHANGES OVER TIME 9,000 8,000 Number of Recent Immigrants (in Canada less than five years), Regina CMA The number of recent immigrants living in the Regina CMA has increased dramatically in the last ten years. 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Nov 20, 2015 22
MEMBERS OF A VISIBLE MINORITY GROUP Saskatoon Regina Swift Current North Battleford Members of a Visible Minority Group as Percentage of the Population, Saskatchewan, 2011 Moose Jaw 5.0% 4.6% 6.2% 11.2% 10.6% In the 2011 NHS, respondents were given a list of visible minority groups and asked if they were members. The list included: Chinese, South Asian, West Asian, and Southeast Asian; Black; Filipino, Japanese, Korean; Latin American; and Arab. Note that Aboriginal people are not considered as being members of a visible minority group. Estevan 4.2% Many members of a visible minority group will be recent immigrants. Yorkton 2.9% Prince Albert Rest of Saskatchewan 1.7% 2.9% Members of a visible minority group are much more common in urban centres than in rural Saskatchewan. This is particularly true for Regina and Saskatoon. Total 6.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nov 20, 2015 23
CHANGES OVER TIME, MEMBERS OF A VISIBLE MINORITY GROUP 25,000 Members of a Visible Minority Group, Regina CMA The number of Regina CMA residents who are members of a visible minority group doubled from 2006 to 2011. 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Nov 20, 2015 24
ABORIGINAL IDENTITY Aboriginal Identity Population as Percentage of the Total Population, Saskatchewan, 2011 Prince Albert 38.5% The Aboriginal identity population includes Treaty or Registered Indians, members of a First Nation, and those who selfidentify as Aboriginal. North Battleford Yorkton 10.0% 22.2% The Aboriginal population is much more common in Prince Albert and North Battleford than in Regina or Saskatoon. Regina Saskatoon Estevan Moose Jaw Swift Current Rest of Saskatchewan 9.5% 9.3% 5.0% 4.2% 2.8% 22.2% Métis and Other First Nations In absolute terms, however, there are more Aboriginal people in the Regina CMA (19,785) than in Prince Albert (15,780). The Rest of Saskatchewan category has a relatively high proportion of people reporting a First Nations identity because it includes Reserves and the Far North. Total 15.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Nov 20, 2015 25
AGE GROUPS FOR THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION Age of Aboriginal Identity Population, Regina CMA, 2011 65 plus 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 Aboriginal people in Regina are much younger, on average, than non-aboriginal residents. For example, 40% of the First Nations population is under 15 years of age compared with 16% of the non-aboriginal population. Looked at another way, 18% of Regina residents under 15 years of age are Aboriginal. 25 to 34 15 to 24 Under 15 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% First Nations Métis & Other Non-Aboriginal Nov 20, 2015 26
CHANGES IN THE SIZE OF THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION 25,000 Population with an Aboriginal Identity, Regina CMA The Aboriginal population has been growing steadily in the Regina CMA. 20,000 As a percentage of the population, Aboriginal people make up 9.5% of Regina CMA residents in 2011 compared with 6.8% in 1996. 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Nov 20, 2015 27
LANGUAGE Selected Language Measures, Regina CMA, 2011 There are three language measures in the census/nhs. Mother tonuge is not English (alone) 14.1% A high proportion of Regina residents have a mother tongue other than English but almost everyone can understand English or French. Home language is not English (alone) 7.8% The mother tongue is the language first learned as a child and still understood. For 14% of Regina residents, their mother tongue is not English. The home language is the language spoken most often at home - 92% of Regina residents report English. Cannot understand English 0.8% The knowledge of official languages measures how many individuals can write or carry on a conversation in English or French. More than 99% of Regina residents can understand English. 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Nov 20, 2015 28
CHANGES IN HOME LANGUAGE, REGINA CMA 18,000 16,000 Population Normally Speaking a Language Other than English at Home, Regina CMA The growth in the percentage of the population who speak a language other than English at home has also increased dramatically. 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Nov 20, 2015 29
SUMMARY OF DIVERSITY MEASURES Aboriginal identity Recent (since 2006) immigrant incl nonpermanent residents Selected Diversity Measures, Regina CMA, 2011 3.5% 11.6% 15.6% 14.9% There is a great deal of overlap among these categories but it is clear that Regina is more diversified than other parts of the province. This is mainly because of the increase in the number of recent immigrants. Member of a visible minority group 6.3% 10.6% Home language is not English 6.5% 7.8% Saskatchewan Regina CMA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Nov 20, 2015 30
TRENDS IN DIVERSITY MEASURES 25,000 20,000 15,000 Trends in Diversity Measures, Regina CMA members of vis min group aboriginal Identity home language not English The Aboriginal population has been growing steadily over time. The other three groups, among whom there will be a great deal of overlap, show a sharp increase from 2006 to 2011. All four groups will have increased in size since 2011. 10,000 recent immigrants 5,000 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Nov 20, 2015 31
SUMMARY The population of the city is growing more quickly than it has for decades. The four factors affecting population growth i) interprovincial migration, ii) international migration, iii) natural growth, and iv) intraprovincial migration are all contributing to the population growth. The population is growing even more quickly in Saskatoon. Those in the baby boom generation are in their 50s and early 60s. The echo generation is in the family formation age group. Recent immigrants and the Aboriginal population are much younger, on average, than the non-aboriginal, non-immigrant population. The population is becoming more diverse with a large and increasing proportion of residents being recent immigrants, members of a visible minority group, or reporting an Aboriginal identity. Nov 20, 2015 32