MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL JULY 2015 BOTH US SENATE PRIMARY RACES UP FOR GRABS ANALYSIS By: J. Bradford Coker, Managing Director Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 2015, All Rights Reserved There is no clear favorite in either primary race for Florida s open U.S. Senate seat. In the current field of declared or highly likely candidates, no one currently appears to have enough strength to be labeled as the frontrunner. There has been some speculation about two potential candidates with assumed statewide name recognition -- Democrat Gwen Graham and Republican Bill McCollum who could enter the fray and significantly change the race overnight. However, at the present time nothing indicates that would be the case. 1
On the Republican side, McCollum would, in fact, start at the head of the pack. However, he would get the immediate support of only 22% of GOP voters. Given his history of losing early leads in several previous statewide races, that number would not be daunting enough to scare away any rivals. On the Democratic side, Graham actually starts the race in third place -- significantly behind the already declared Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy. It is apparent that most Florida Democrats statewide currently do not make the personal connection between her and her iconic father former Governor and Senator Bob Graham. Over the course of a campaign that would change of course, and she certainly has great potential to become the heavy Democratic favorite over the next year. But she will have some work to do to get there. Statewide, the early primary results are pretty straight forward. If he enters the race, McCollum gets 22%, followed by David Jolly (11%), Ron DeSantis (8%), Carlos Lopez-Cantera (7%), Jeff Miller (6%), Todd Wilcox (1%) with 45% undecided. Without McCollum, Jolly leads with 16%, followed by Lopez-Cantera (10%), DeSantis (9%), Miller (8%) and Wilcox (2%) and a majority (55%) undecided. In a three-way race among Democrats, Murphy is currently supported by 26%, followed by Grayson at 24%, with Graham trailing at 11% and 39% are undecided. Take Graham out of the mix and Grayson noses ahead of Murphy 33%-32% with 35% undecided. Both primary races at the present time are muddled to say the least. 2
*** 500 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS **** QUESTION: If the Republican primary election for Florida s US Senate seat were held today, and the choice was among the following list of candidates, which one would get your vote (ORDER ROTATED) Bill McCollum 22% David Jolly 11% Ron DeSantis 8% Carlos Lopez-Cantera 7% Jeff Miller 6% Todd Wilcox 1% Undecided (NOT READ) 45% QUESTION: If the Republican primary election for Florida s US Senate seat were held today, and the choice was among the following list of candidates, which one would get your vote (ORDER ROTATED) David Jolly 16% Carlos Lopez-Cantera 10% Ron DeSantis 9% Jeff Miller 8% Todd Wilcox 2% Undecided (NOT READ) 55% 3
*** 500 REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC VOTERS **** QUESTION: If the Democratic primary election for Florida s US Senate seat were held today, and the choice was among the following candidates, which one would get your vote (ORDER ROTATED) Patrick Murphy 26% Alan Grayson 24% Gwen Graham 11% Undecided (NOT READ) 39% QUESTION: If the Democratic primary election for Florida s US Senate seat were held today, and the choice was among the following candidates, which one would get your vote (ORDER ROTATED) Alan Grayson 33% Patrick Murphy 32% Undecided (NOT READ) 35% 4
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED The Mason-Dixon Florida Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from July 20 through July 24, 2015. For this section of the poll 500 registered Republican voters and 500 registered Democratic voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect party registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all party voters were surveyed. 5