ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION Framing the Issues Michal Rutkowski, Senior Director, SPJ Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 1 d
SSLF FRAMING OVERVIEW Shocks and their impacts on households The role of social protection and its limitations with shocks The Adaptive Social Protection agenda An Adaptive Social Protection roadmap 2
A MULTITUDE OF PROMINENT SHOCKS IN RECENT YEARS NATURAL DISASTERS FORCED DISPLACEMENT SHOCKS Risk and Uncertainty Interconnectedness Complexity ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PANDEMICS CONFLICT 3
FORCED DISPLACEMENT AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS SEEN SINCE WORLD WAR II TOTAL NUMBER OF DISPLACED PERSONS 1951 2015 (MILLIONS) REFUGEE COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN AND ASYLUM, 2015 (MILLIONS) Global number of displaced persons (millions) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 4 Source: UNHCR, 2016
NATURAL DISASTERS, MORE FREQUENT AND MORE SEVERE NUMBER OF DISASTERS OCCURRING AND PEOPLE AFFECTED, 1980-2016 SOUTH ASIA FLOODING NUMBER OF DISASTERS OCCURING 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Occurrence Total affected 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED (MILLIONS) MEXICO EARTHQUAKES ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 5 Source: EM-DAT
EBOLA: A REMINDER OF THE THREAT FROM PANDEMICS $2.2 billion in GDP was lost in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (2015) 60%: the estimated mortality rate among the infected EBOLA OUTBRREAKS, ONSET THROUGH JANUARY 2016 Long lasting impacts on children and human capital: 17,300 children lost one or both parents to Ebola 30% decline in childhood vaccination coverage More than 33 weeks of education were lost due to school closures 6 Sources: CDC; WHO; Economist
ECONOMIC CRISES UNDERMINE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Human capital and gender equality undermined by economic crises Human development indicators fall below their means, globally, during decelerations The case of Turkey, 2008 Reductions in consumption and reduced health and education investments, especially among the poorest 7 Sources: World Bank, 2010
COMPOUNDED BY MULTIPLIERS URBANIZATION GLOBALIZATION CLIMATE CHANGE 8
WHAT DO SHOCKS MEAN FOR THE HOUSEHOLDS THAT THEY AFFECT? HOUSEHOLD WELL-BEING! Disproportionate impact on the poor Ability to push vulnerable and non-poor into poverty Long term negative impact on human development outcomes Ex-ante Shock Ex-post t Particularly for children nutrition, ECD, education 9 Sources: World Bank, 2010
SOCIAL PROTECTION PROMOTES RESILIENCE, EQUITY AND OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIARIES SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM(S)/ SYSTEM HOUSEHOLD OUTCOMES Cash transfers Public works SOCIAL SAFETY NETS LABOR AND JOBS SOCIAL INSURANCE School feeding Productive inclusion Skills building Job search Health insurance Pensions Unemployment insurance 10 Sources: World Bank, 2012
THERE IS AN EXPANDING SOCIAL PROTECTION FOOTPRINT, GLOBALLY Number of countries 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS - WORLD 52 27 68 2008 2013 2016 Number of countries 100 80 60 40 20 0 PUBLIC WORKS - WORLD 84 62 95 2011 2013 2016 Number of countries 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 UNCONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 41 37 21 2010 2013 2016 11 Source: World Bank, ASPIRE, 2017
NEW INITIATIVES FOR RESILIENCE, OPPORTUNITY AND EQUITY: PRODUCTIVE INCLUSION The productive inclusion approach Target the extreme poor MARKET ANALYSIS REGULAR COACHING SUSTAINABLE LEVELHOODS ACCESS TO CREDIT Packages of interventions (cash plus) Poverty Line Promoting sustainable exits from poverty Extreme Poverty Asset Transfer Encouraging evidence on impacts emerging Participant Selection Savings Consumption Support Skills Training 0 MONTHS 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 18 MONTHS 36 MONTHS 12 Sources: CGAP
BUT - ACUTE CHALLENGES WHEN CONSIDERING SOCIAL PROTECTION IN RELATION TO SHOCKS LOW COVERAGE LOW INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY DELIVERY SYSTEM RIGIDITIES EXTRAORDINARY FINANCIAL DEMANDS INFORMATION LIMITATIONS GOING BEYOND POVERTY TARGETING DIFFICULT OPERATING ENVIRONMENTS 13
TAKE THE CENTRAL ISSUE OF LOW COVERAGE Despite progress, many of those most vulnerable to shocks have no access to social protection Coverage of Social Protection and Labor Programs, Total Population (%) COVERAGE BY REGIONS COVERAGE BY INCOME GROUPS 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 80.8 73.0 40.4 41.1 47.2 30.7 ECA LAC EAP MNA SAR AFR No transfer Only social insurance programs Only labor market programs Only social assistance programs More than one SPL program 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 80.4 67.8 33.0 24.1 HIC UMIC LMIC LIC 14 Source: World Bank, ASPIRE, 2017
NUMEROUS COUNTRIES WITH HIGH DISASTER RISK HAVE VERY LOW SAFETY NET COVERAGE How effective can social protection be in relation to disasters in these contexts? ASPIRE: Social Safety Net Coverage, latest year (All programs) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 World Risk Index, 2016 (169=most at risk; 1=least at risk) AFR EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR ALL Expon. (ALL) 15 Sources: World Bank, ASPIRE
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE OFTEN FILLS THE VOID BUT IT CANNOT OFFER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HUMANITARIAN AID AND SAFETY NET COVERAGE THE HUMANITARIAN FUNDING-GAP, 2007-17 24 22 20 B A C Billions, US $ 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Requirements Year-end Funding 16 Sources: Gentilini, 2016. UNOCHA
ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION (ASP) IN THIS CONTEXT POLICY PRIORITIES FOR ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION HOUSEHOLD WELLBEING! 1. BUILD HOUSEHOLD RESILIENCE, EX ANTE EX ANTE SHOCK EX POST 2. PROTECT WELLBEING, EX POST 17 But how?.
THE ADAPTIVE ROADMAP GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP INVESTING IN A MORE ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM Three building blocks DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS Within and across government With non-government partners ADAPTIVE INFORMATION ADAPTIVE PROGRAMS INTERNAL EXTERNAL ADAPTIVE FINANCE 18
GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP Own risks; Set objectives; Define national strategy(-ies) and legislation; Establish the agenda for external actors and partners; Address political economy. INVESTING IN A MORE ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ADAPTIVE INFORMATION ADAPTIVE PROGRAMS INTERNAL EXTERNAL ADAPTIVE FINANCE 19
INVESTING IN A MORE ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM Adaptive information: understanding risk and vulnerability Greater understanding of the risks faced by households: where, when, how often, who? Informing adaptive delivery processes and adaptive financing accordingly DATA AND ANALYSIS Poverty analysis Δ Risk profiling and forecasting Δ Household vulnerability analysis INFORMATION ADAPTIVE INFORMATION OPERATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS Beneficiary registry Integrated social registry Δ Containing or linked to spatial data, vulnerability data, Early Warning Systems Strengthening existing SP information systems Connecting new information streams to social protection information systems and vice versa Evidence based planning and preparedness 20
INVESTING IN A MORE ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM Adaptive Programs: building resilience, responsive to changed needs Social Protection programs designed to build the resilience of the most vulnerable to shocks, ex ante Flexible and scalable: capable of reaching the affected / target population through dynamic processes and systems ADAPTIVE PROGRAMS PROGRAMS Δ PROGRAMS DESIGNED PROGRAM FOR RESILIENCE DESIGNAND / OR RESPONSE THE DELIVERY CHAIN Δ DYNAMIC DELIVERY CHAIN 1) Δ ASSESS Flexible program rules 2) DECIDE and procedures 3) IMPLEMENT Δ Strategies for rapid assessment and enrolment, setting Outreach criteria in advance and Enrolment defining triggers Intake Choice of service Δ Flexibility in benefits package Assessment of needs package Δ Robust processes and systems for post shock implementation Transaction Case management 21
INVESTING IN A MORE ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM Adaptive Finance: accessible financing to cover anticipated costs Beyond multi-year allocations for regular social protection programming To be able to absorb fluctuations in needs arising from shocks From begging bowl (Dercon) to prepositioned and prepared for faster response Multiyear allocation for SP programming FINANCE ADAPTIVE FINANCE Δ Post shock financing strategy in place Δ Reserve fund Δ Contingent credit Δ Insurance Δ Budget reallocation Δ Donor finance Δ Humanitarian resources 22
DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS A multitude of actors Planning and coordination INTERNAL INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS (GOVERNMENT) EXTERNAL INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS (NON-GOVERNMENT) Partner coordination: with humanitarian and donor agencies Horizontal coordination Across line departments Vertical coordination From central, regional and local levels HIGHER CAPACITY COUNTRIES, (predominantly internal) INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY SCALE INTERNAL VS. EXTERNAL LOWER CAPACITY COUNTRIES, (predominantly external) 23
DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS Outsourced or internalized adaptive building blocks? In appropriate contexts - moving the needle through investment in national, adaptive SP systems COUNTRY A. COUNTRY B. INFORMATION INFORMATION DELIVERY PROCESSES DELIVERY PROCESSES FINANCE FINANCE 24
KEEPING THE ROAD MAP IN MIND DURING THE FORUM GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP INVESTING IN A MORE ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM Three building blocks DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS Within and across government With non-government partners ADAPTIVE INFORMATION ADAPTIVE PROGRAMS INTERNAL EXTERNAL ADAPTIVE FINANCE 25
68 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (8) Greece Kosovo Kyrgyzstan Romania Serbia Turkey Ukraine Uzbekistan MIDDLE EAST NORTH AFRICA (8) LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (9) Brazil Chile Colombia Dominica Dominican Republic Jamaica Mexico Peru St. Vincent and the Grenadines Angola Benin Burundi Cameroon CAR Chad Comoros Congo (Rep.) Cote d Ivoire Ethiopia Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Tunisia West Bank/Gaza Yemen SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (30) Gambia Ghana Guinea Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mozambique Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia SOUTH ASIA (6) Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka EAST ASIA PACIFIC (7) Cambodia Fiji Indonesia Japan Laos Philippines Vietnam TACKLING THESE COMPLEX ISSUES, TOGETHER 26
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