EU Referendum Survey AGCC data February 2016 This EU Referendum survey was carried out between January 25 th, 2016 and February 4 th, 2016, before Donald Tusk s letter of response to David Cameron s negotiations was published. The previous survey, conducted in September 2015, serves as a benchmark for tracking any shift in attitudes towards the EU Referendum among our members. COMPOSITION OF RESPONDENTS There were 115 responses from the AGCC area, 458 responses in Scotland (including AGCC responses) and 2,133 responses UK-wide. AGCC responses were distributed among company sizes as follows: Micro (25%), Small (38%), Medium (24%) and Large (11%). In comparison, the UK-wide responses strongly featured micro businesses (5) and a lower proportion of large businesses (9%). A majority of AGCC respondents exported (56%) and imported (55%) goods, products and/or services to EU countries. Almost two thirds of businesses (65%) exported to countries outside of the EU. A higher proportion of AGCC business import and export to Europe and the rest of the world compared when compared to businesses across Scotland. Some AGCC businesses reported they do not carry out any export (30%) or import (39%) activities. AGCC RESPONDENTS Countries inside the EU Rest of the world None Exports 56.3% 65. 30.4% Imports 55.3% 39.8% 38.8% SCOTLAND RESPONDENTS Countries inside the EU Rest of the world None Exports 39.6% 38.1% 54.1% Imports 40.4% 29.4% 53.8% 1
BUSINESS KNOWLEDGE AND OPINIONS ON THE REFERENDUM Only 1.7% of AGCC business leaders said the EU referendum was not at all important to their business, compared to 7% of Scottish and 7.9% of UK businesses. The referendum is very important for 4 of AGCC businesses, similarly to businesses across Scotland and the UK (4 and 43%). AGCC: IMPORTANCE OF THE UK'S EU MEMBERSHIP ON YOUR BUSINESS 5 - Not at all important 1% 4 14% 3 16% 1 - Very important 4 2 25% More than two thirds of AGCC respondents (68%) are now following the EU referendum debate closely, i.e. at least weekly. This marks a strong increase, from 37% in September 2015. AGCC: How closely are you following the EU Referendum debate? I am not following the debate at all and do not read anything about it I am following the debate but not closely, reading about it less than once every fortnight I am following the debate and read something about it at least once every one to two weeks I am following the debate quite closely, reading something about it at least once or twice per week I am following the debate very closely, reading something about it at least every one to two days 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% AGCC FEB 16 AGCC AUG 15 Scottish and UK businesses are similarly well exposed to the debate, with 6 and 66% following the debate closely in the respective areas. Slightly more UK businesses read about the debate fortnightly (2) than AGCC respondents (18.3%). 2
The majority of business leaders completing the survey in the AGCC area say they are familiar with every objective in the Prime Minister s renegotiation package: safeguards for non-euro countries (6); UK exemption from ever-closer union (6); and restricting EU migrants access to tax credits (7). A smaller majority reports being familiar with the objective of boosting competitiveness by reducing the burden of red tape (57%). The levels of familiarity are somewhat lower than among UK respondents: safeguards for non-euro countries (68%); boosting competitiveness (64%); UK exemption from ever-closer union (70%); and restricting EU migrants access to tax credits (81%). BUSINESS IMPACTS More than nine in ten AGCC business leaders report that the referendum has had no material impacts on orders/sales, recruitment, investment or costs in their business to date. AGCC respondents believed the following impacts would result if the PM s negotiation process is successful: Safeguards for non- Euro-zone countries AGCC RESPONDENTS UK exemption from ever closer union Restricting EU migrants access to tax credits Positive impact 40% 48% 29% 69% No impact 41% 27% 56% 20% Negative impact 6% 13% 8% 3% Don t know 13% 1 7% 8% Boosting competitiveness by reducing red tape AGCC: Perceived impact of the negotiation objectives on your business (if achieved) Boosting competitiveness by reducing red tape Restricting EU migrants access to tax credits UK exemption from ever closer union Safeguards for non-euro-zone countries 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Positive impact No impact Negative impact Don t know If the UK were to leave the EU, a majority of AGCC respondents said it would have no impact on their recruitment strategy (60%), investment strategy (56%) or treasury/cash management (5). For their export and international sales strategy, 45% saw no impacts and 41% saw negative impacts. For their businesses import/supply chain strategy, 43% saw no impacts and 4 saw negative impacts. For their overall growth strategy, 10% saw positive impacts, 45% saw no impacts and 33% saw negative impacts. 11% did not know what the impacts would be. 3
VOTING INTENTIONS Should the vote take place tomorrow, almost three quarters (73%) of AGCC business leaders would vote to remain in the EU (74% in September 2015), compared to 69% in Scotland and 60% in the rest of the UK. 18% of AGCC business leaders would vote to leave the EU, up from 11.5% in September 2015. This proportion is still fewer than among UK respondents (30%), but similar to the Scotland-wide result (19%). 6% of North-east business leaders still don t know how they would vote. This uncertainty has decreased since the September 2015 survey (14%). AGCC: VOTING INTENTIONS IN THE EU REF - FEB 2016 6% I would not vote 3% Leave the EU 18% Remain a member of the EU 73% North-east business leaders said they were completely committed (41%); quite committed but unlikely to change their mind (39%); slightly committed and could change their mind (19%); or uncommitted (1%). AGCC: Committment to voting intentions Uncommitted Slightly committed (and could change my mind) Quite committed (but unlikely to change my mind) Completely committed 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 4
Commitment is currently higher amongst North-east respondents who intend to vote to Remain in the EU 45% are completely committed, in contrast with 24% of those who would vote to leave. Conversely, 38% of those who would vote to Leave the EU are slightly committed and likely to change their minds, in contrast with 14% of respondents who intend to vote Remain. AGCC respondents said the outcome of the PM s negotiations are: - very likely to influence their voting intentions (21%) - somewhat likely (20%) - unlikely (55%). The PM s negotiations have less influence now among AGCC respondents than in September 2015, when only 40% were unlikely to be influenced by them. Among UK businesses, 1 say the PM s renegotiation is very likely to influence their vote; 2 somewhat likely ; 63% unlikely (up from 45% in September 2015) Very likely Somewhat likely Unlikely Likelihood that the PM's negotiations will influence respondents' voting decisions 3% 8% 14% 1 21% 23% 20% 20% 2 3 40% 55% 64% 63% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% AGCC AUG 15 AGCC FEB 16 SCOTLAND FEB 16 UK FEB 16 5