Session 5: Who are the furthest behind? Inequality of Opportunity in Asia and the Pacific Ermina Sokou 6 October 2017 Strategic Dialogue on Poverty and Inequality in Asia and the Pacific Sustainable Socioeconomic Transformation Section, Social Development Division ESCAP Research questions Methodology Furthest behind Range & trend Index Decomposition Key Results Structure 1
Research questions 1. Which population groups are left behind? 2. Has inequality in access to opportunities decreased or increased over time? Are the same groups affected? 3. How do countries compare to each other? 4. How is inequality of opportunity decomposed? Opportunities Methodology Individual: Education, Health, Decent work, Participation Household: WatSan, Clean Energy, Basic ICT, Finance Data sources Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) & Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) 2
Methodology (cont ed) Set of (1-5) indicators for each opportunity Criteria: a) in SDG framework or b) in MDG framework; c) in DHS/ MICS Total: 15 indicators / 21 countries Methodology (cont ed) Circumstances: Rural / Urban residence, Ethnicity / Religion, Sex, Poorer (bottom 40) / richer (top 60), Highest education level in HH, Number of children in HH, Age group, Education of mother. 3
Types of Results Furthest behind / ahead groups Range of inequality across countries Human Opportunity Index Drivers of inequality (Decomposition) Furthest behind/ ahead group Example: Differences in secondary education attainment in Mongolia, (age: 20-35) Average attainment Average: 69% Sample size: Wealth Poorer: 38% Size: 39% Richer: 88% Size: 61% Residence / Sex Rural: 29% Size: 25% Urban: 58 % Size: 14% Male: 83% Size: 29% Female: 93% Size: 32% Sex Male: 21% Size: 13% Female: 37 % Size: 12% 4
Range of inequality in A-P Figure 1: Secondary education attainment (20-35 year olds) Average attainment rate Group attainment rate (highest) Group attainment rate (lowest) KK AM KY PH MN TJ TM TH ID VN VU PK TL BD LA IA AF BT MM KH MV 2015 2010 2012 2012 2015 2012 2012 2007 2010 2014 2011 2006 2015 2010 2000 2014 2009 Human Opportunity Index Rank countries: HOI = p (1-D), where: D is the dissimilarity index p is average access (0 to 1) is the size of group i p is the access of group I D = 1 2p p p Drivers: Shapley decomposition 5
Education Opportunity Index: Secondary Country EOI Secondary 1 Kazakhstan 0.92 2 Armenia 0.89 3 Kyrgyzstan 0.85 4 Philippines 0.60 5 Mongolia 0.57. 17 India 0.12 18 Bhutan 0.11 19 Myanmar 0.11 20 Cambodia 0.10 21 Maldives 0.08 Results 6
Who are the furthest behind? Higher education: Who is furthest behind/ahead?* Urban, top 60 (men) Rural, bottom 40 (women) * Higher education attainment among 25-35 year olds 7
but in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Philippines Urban, top 60, women Rural, bottom 40, men * Higher education attainment among 25-35 year olds Health: Which children suffer from malnutrition? Overweight Poorer, rural boys Top 60, urban kids Overweight: 1. Armenia: boys from larger households 2. Kazakhstan, Thailand, Vanuatu: urban kids with mothers that have higher education Wasting Wasting: 1. Pakistan: larger households 2. Cambodia, Bangladesh, Timor- Leste: boys from rural, poorer households 8
Health: Which women have least access to health care? 1. No professional help during childbirth Lower education Poorer Rural Older 2. No access to modern contraceptive Younger ones (15-24) Rural Lower education What is the range of inequality? 9
Figure 1: Secondary education attainment (20-35 year olds) Average attainment rate Group attainment rate (highest) Group attainment rate (lowest) KK AM 2015 2010 KY 2012 PH MN TJ 2012 TM 2015 TH ID 2012 2012 VN VU 2007 PK TL 2010 BD 2014 LA 2011 Figure 3: Higher education attainment (25-35 year olds) IA 2006 AF 2015 BT MM 2010 2000 KH MV 2014 2009 MN KY 2012 KK 2015 PH TH AM 2012 2010 VN TJ 2012 TM 2015 PK BD 2014 IA ID 2006 2012 MV MM 2009 2000 BT 2010 LA 2011 TL 2010 KH 2014 AF 2015 VU 2007 Health Figure 4: Professional help during childbirth Access level (% ) 2010 2012 2012 2006 2015 2014 2012 2007 2010 2015 2006 2014 2011 2010 2009 2012 Average access level Highest access group Lowest access group AM KY TH TM KK MN VN KH TJ PH VU BT PK AF IA BD LA TL MV ID 10
Clean Energy Figure 5: Access to clean fuels How do countries compare to each other? 11
Education Opportunity Index (EOI) # Country Secondary EOI Country Higher EOI 1 Kazakhstan 0.92 Kyrgyzstan 0.38 2 Armenia 0.89 Mongolia 0.35 3 Kyrgyzstan 0.85 Kazakhstan 0.35 4 Philippines 0.60 Thailand 0.30 18 Bhutan 0.11 Cambodia 0.04 19 Myanmar 0.11 Lao PRD 0.04 20 Cambodia 0.10 Vanuatu 0.04 21 Maldives 0.08 Afghanistan 0.04 Health Opportunity Index (HOI): women # Country HOI: Modern Contraceptive Country HOI: Professional Help 1 Thailand 0.73 Armenia 1 2 Bhutan 0.61 Kyrgyzstan 1 3 Viet Nam 0.53 Thailand 1 4 Indonesia 0.52 Turkmenistan 1. 14 Pakistan 0.21 Maldives 0.30 15 Tajikistan 0.20 Lao PDR 0.27 16 Timor-Leste 0.16 Timor-Leste 0.26 17 Afghanistan 0.16 Indonesia 0.22 12
Health Opportunity Index (HOI): children # Country HOI- Wasting* Country HOI-Overweight* 1 Mongolia 0.99 Bangladesh 0.99 2 Kyrgyzstan 0.98 Cambodia 0.99 3 Armenia 0.98 Lao 0.98 4 Kazakhstan 0.97 VietNam 0.98 5 Turkmenistan 0.97 Myanmar 0.98. 13 Maldives 0.91 Bhutan 0.93 14 Cambodia 0.91 Kazakhstan 0.92 15 Myanmar 0.90 Thailand 0.91 16 Bangladesh 0.87 Mongolia 0.90 17 Timor-Leste 0.83 Armenia 0.88 *Calculated as 1-HOI, because wasting/overweight are unwanted outcomes Energy Opportunity Index (EOI) # Country Electricity EOI Country Clean Fuels EOI 1 Turkmenistan 1 Turkmenistan 1 2 Kazakhstan 1 Kazakhstan 0.98 3 Kyrgyzstan 1 Armenia 0.97 4 Maldives 1 Maldives 0.89 19 India 0.54 Bangladesh 0.08 20 Cambodia 0.41 Vanuatu 0.05 21 Timor-Leste 0.24 Lao PDR 0.02 22 Vanuatu 0.19 Timor-Leste 0.01 13
What are the main drivers of inequality of opportunity? Education: two extremes Decomposition of D-Index 9 7 5 3 1 sec high sec high Philippines Tajikistan PoorerHousehold Residence Sex PoorerHousehold Residence Sex 14
Electricity 9 7 5 3 1 Decomposition of D-Index Wealth Residence Education Clean Fuels 9 7 5 3 1 Decomposition of D-index Wealth Residence Education 15
Stunting 9 7 5 3 1 Decomposition of D-index 2012 2010 2007 TH PK TL VU Wealth Mothers education Children under 5 Residence Sex Future analytical focus Composition of the furthest behind (+ over time). Ethnicity / religion. Overlapping inequalities of opportunity: Probability that some groups lack more than one Link with income inequality Policy discussion 16
Clean fuels over time Figure 12: Changes in access to electricity over time Access to electricity (%) 2000 2010 2006 2015 1997 2012 2005 2012 2006 2015 2003 2012 1991 1998 2000 2014 2000 2014 Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Thailand Turkmenistan Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Bangladesh Cambodia Average Highest Lowest 17
Shapley decomposition For example: Mongolia / Education: residence, 3 gender and 1 education Impact of adding circumstance A: Contribution of circumstance A: 18