Table of Contents Introduction Mid-term Voter Trends Party Identification Trends Federal Election Overview Key Races in the US Senate Arkansas Congressional Races State Election Overview Constitutional Offices State Senate State House of Representatives Ballot Initiatives What to Expect: 2015 General Assembly Behind Closed Doors Under the Dome Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 2
Introduction Noble Strategies, Arkansas only bi-partisan state and federal public affairs firm, provides the following analysis of the historic 2014 general election. We also provide a state legislative preview of the 90 th General Assembly convening January 2015. The state of democratic legends Bill Clinton, Dale Bumpers and David Pryor went red last night. Mike Ross and Mark Pryor ran on their independent records but several GOTV tours from Clinton himself could not counteract the unpopularity of the Obama Administration. Last night s campaigns were the culmination of record donations and out of state money flowing into Arkansas. The Pryor and Cotton campaigns raised close to $20 million combined with Pryor holding the fundraising advantage. However this total was dwarfed by almost $40 million spent from outside interest groups. In 2010, democrats held the state house and senate, all seven of the constitutional offices, and the majority of the congressional delegation. Following last night s election, every office has flipped and is now represented by the Republican Party. For the first time in history a republican woman was elected Attorney General, an unprecedented number of voters turned out to vote republican in Northeast Arkansas, and a republican governor will be working with a republican led general assembly. Our firm consists of the following professionals, for contact information or background on our expertise please visit www.noblestrat.com. Ben Noble, Founder and CEO Chad Causey, Principal and Chief Legal Officer Katherine Vasilos, Public Affairs Associate Valerie Shively, Associate Alex St. Amour, Associate Becky Barnes Campbell, Executive Assistant Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 3
Midterm Voter Turnout Trends 2006 2010 2014 Dem: 430,765 Dem: 503,336 Dem: 346,774 GOP: 315,040 GOP: 262,784 GOP: 466,266 Ballots Cast: 774, 680 Ballots Cast: 779,957 Ballots Cast: 834,391 Turnout: 47.96% Turnout: 47.61% Turnout: 49.36% Registered Voters: 1,615,271 Registered Voters: 1,638,135 Registered Voters: 1,690,577 *Dem/GOP number based on gubernatorial race. Source: Arkansas Secretary of State. 2014 results based on 73 out of 75 counties reporting. Political Party Identification Trends 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Dem: 57,497 Dem: 70,047 Dem: 69,950 Dem: 66,761 Dem: 73,591 GOP: 44, 066 GOP: 52,646 GOP: 54,824 GOP: 54,062 GOP: 63,059 Opt: 1,538,435 Opt: 1,562,601 Opt: 1,518,441 Opt: 1,419,903 Opt: 1,553,700 Source: Arkansas Secretary of State Party Registration. Opt = Optional Identification Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 4
Federal Election Overview In the U.S. Senate, it was an historic night for Republicans. Across, the country, the President s unpopularity coupled with millions spent by outside interest groups led Senate Republicans to pick up eight seats and the majority with at least 53 seats. Vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska and Colorado were defeated. Republicans also picked up competitive open seats in Iowa and held off Democratic challenges to seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Last night s House of Representatives elections saw Republicans pick up at least ten seats across the country increasing their total seats to almost 250 seats. Entrenched democrats such as Nick Rahall (WV) and Bill Enyart (IL) were dislodged and won t be returning. The unpopularity of the incumbent president typically has a greater negative impact on House members of the President s party and last night proved that statistic. The Republican gains put them in a better position to hold their majority in 2016 and beyond. In Arkansas, Republicans hold all four Congressional seats and both U.S. Senate seats for the first time since the Reconstruction era. Two-term incumbent and senior Senator Mark Pryor lost to Rep. Tom Cotton in a close race. French Hill edged out Pat Hayes in central Arkansas s 2 nd congressional district and Bruce Westerman bested James Lee Witt in the sprawling 4 th congressional district. Rick Crawford and Steve Womack were easily reelected as well. Key Races in the US Senate Arkansas Alaska Colorado Georgia Iowa Kentucky 56% Tom Cotton (R) v. 40% Mark Pryor (D) 49% Dan Sullivan (R) v. 45% Mark Begich (D) 49% Cory Garner (R) v. 45% Mark Udall (D) 53% David Purdue (R) v. 45% Michelle Nunn (D) 52% Jodi Earnst (R) v. 44% Bruce Braley (D) 56% Mitch McConnell (R) v. 41% Alison Lundergran Grimes (D) Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 5
Louisiana Mississippi N.H. N.C. 42% Mary Landrieu (D) v. 41% Bill Cassidy (R): *December Runoff 59% Thad Cochran (R) v. 39% Travis Childers (D) 52% Jean Shaheen (D) v. 48% Scott Brown (R) 49% Tom Tillis (R) v. 47% Kay Hagan (D) Arkansas Congressional Races CD1 64% Rick Crawford (R) v. 32% Jackie McPherson (D) CD2 52% French Hill (R) v. 44% Pat Hays (D) CD3 80% Steve Womack (R) v. 20% Grant Brand (L) CD4 54% Bruce Westerman (R) v. 43% James Lee Witt (D) Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 6
Arkansas Constitutional Offices All seven of Arkansas s Constitutional Offices are up for election every four years. Two of these offices have Republican incumbents due to the sweep that ousted the majority of the Democratic members in 2010 and two members of Arkansas s Constitutional delegation have been forced to resign due to financial improprieties. The party that holds the majority of these offices is legally defined as the majority party and is granted two out of the three seats on county election commissions. Governor: 55% Asa Hutchinson (R) v. 42% Mike Ross (D) Governor Mike Beebe has reached the end of his second term in office after serving thirty years in public office. Lt. Governor: 57% Tim Griffin (R) v. 39% John Burkhalter (D) Lt. Governor Mark Darr (R) resigned over alleged misuse of campaign funds. Secretary of State: 61% Mark Martin (R) v. 35% Susan Inman (D) Attorney General: 52% Leslie Rutledge (R) v. 43% Nate Steel (D) Attorney General Dustin McDaniel has reached the end of his second term in office. Auditor: 57% Andrea Lea (R) v. 37% Regina Stewart Hampton (D) Current State Auditor Charlie Daniels is retiring after serving thirty years in various constitutional offices. Treasurer: 56% Dennis Milligan (R) v. 37% Karen Sealy Garcia (D) State Treasurer Martha Shoffner resigned after pleading guilty to accepting bribes from a bond broker. Land Commissioner: 57% John Thurston (R) v. 37% Mark Robertson (D) Thurston also defeated Libertarian candidate Elvis Presley despite the fact he performs as an Elvis impersonator. Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 7
Arkansas State Senate A change in leadership was never an option as the Republican Majority held the Senate by a safe margin of 24/11. Half of the members of the Arkansas State Senate are serving four-year terms and were not up for re-election this cycle. Out of the remaining group, three senators drew General Election challengers and one seat was vacated. Two races were determined in the May primary, Terry Rice challenged and defeated Bruce Holland and Scott Flippo won Johnny Key s seat in a primary race. Senate Legislative Committee Selection will take place on Friday, November 14 th. Incoming Senate Pro-Tem Jonathan Dismang (R-Searcy) will lead the Arkansas State Senate with Jim Hendren (R-Rogers) as Majority Leader and Jimmy Hickey (R-Texarkana) as Caucus Whip. Minority Leadership will be elected in the upcoming weeks. District 14: 71% Sen. Bill Sample v. 28% George Pritchett (I) District 19: 58% Linda Collins Smith (R) v. 42% James McLean (D) District 20: 54% Blake Johnson (R) v. 46% Robert Thompson (D) District 35: 57% Jason Rapert (R) v. 43% Tyler Pearson (D) Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 8
*Following the 2010 Federal Census, the Board of Apportionment, consisting of the Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General, redistricted 100 House districts and 35 Senate districts so that each district meets various legal criteria. House and Senate redistricting maps proposed by Governor Mike Beebe passed a final vote of approval (2-1) by the state Board of Apportionment on July 29, 2011. Therefore, maps 2012 and 2014 follow different district lines. Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 9
Arkansas State House of Representatives There were 37 races in the House of Representatives last night. The republican majority held the House in an overwhelming 64/36 lead. These results are unofficial and will continue to be updated as votes are counted. Nine Democratic members were ousted yet the one outlier of the night was Little Rock s house race. Clarke Tucker (D) won against Stacey Hurst (R). Republican gains were spread throughout Arkansas but were especially significant in Northeast Arkansas. Democrats lost three seats in Craighead County and republicans picked up a Paragould based Senate seat as well. House Legislative Committee Selection will take place on Friday, November 7 th. House Speaker-elect Jeremy Gillam will lead the house with Ken Bragg, Majority Leader; Jim Dotson, Majority Whip; and Charlotte Douglas, Caucus Secretary. District 4: 59% DeAnn Vaught (R) v. 41% Fonda Hawthorne (D) District 9: 55% Sheilla Lampkin (D) v. 45% Sonya Leggett-Ryburn (R) District 10: 58% Mike Holcomb (D) v. 42% Patricia Ferrell Mays (R) District 14: 50% Camille Bennett (D) v. 50% Buddy Fisher (R) District 15: 83% Ken Bragg (R) v. 17% Wayne Willems (L) District 18: 54% Richard Womack (R) v. 46% Damon Daniels (D) District 19: 56% Justin Gonzales (R) v. 44% Jeremy Ross (D) District 20: 63% Nate Bell (R) v. 29% Chase Busch (D) District 26: 51% Laurie Rushing (R) v. 49% David Kizzia (D) Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 10
State House Cont d District 31: 68% Andy Davis (R) v. 28% Clea Hupp (D) District 32: 57% Jim Sorvillo (R) v. 43% John Adams (D) District 35: 53% Clarke Tucker (D) v. 47% Stacy Hurst (R) District 38: 51% Donnie Copeland (R) v. 49% Patti Julian (D) District 41: 57% Karilyn Brown (R) v. 43% Danny Knight (D) District 51: 74% Deborah Ferguson (D) v. 26% Rodger Paxton (L) District 52: 64% Dwight Tosh (R) v. 36% Radius Baker (D) District 53: 53% Dan Sullivan (R) v. 47% Homer Lenderman (D) District 54: 56% Dave Wallace (R) v. 44% Wes Wager (D) District 57: 56% Mary Broadaway (D) v. 44% Ronnie Spence (R) District 58: 53% Brandt Smith (R) v. 47% Harold Copenhaver (D) District 59: 56% Jack Ladyman (R) v. 44% Ron Carroll (D) District 60: 50% James Ratliff (D) v. 49% Blaine Davis (R) * Led by 49 votes, likely recount District 61: 54% Scott Baltz (D) v. 46% Doug Driesel (R) District 62: 54% Michelle Gray (R) v. 46% Tommy Wren (D) District 63: 62% James Sturch (R) v. 38% Lackey Moody (D) Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 11
State House Cont d District 65: 53% Rick Belk (R) v. 47% Tommy Thompson (D) District 68: 78% Trevor Down (R) v. 22% Tachany Evans (D) District 70: 56% David Meeks (R) v. 44% Frank Shaw (D) District 72: 56% Steve Magie (D) v. 44% Shannon Taylor (R) District 73: 51% Mary Bentley (R) v. 49% John Catlett (D) District 80: 78% Charlene Fite (R) v. 22% Taylor Watkins (L) District 84: 58% Charlie Collins v. 41% Candy Clark District 93: 71% Jim Dotson (R) v. 29% Leah Marie Williams (D) District 94: 57% Rebecca Petty (R) v. 43% Grimsley Graham (D) District 95: 82% Sue Scott (R) v. 18% Eddie Moser (L) District 96: 59% Grant Hodges (R) v. 36% Tom McClure (D) District 97: 65% Bob Ballinger (R) v. 35% Charles Carter (D) District 100: 64% Nelda Speaks (R) v. 36% Willa Mae Terry (D) Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 12
*Following the 2010 Federal Census, the Board of Apportionment, consisting of the Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General, redistricted 100 House districts and 35 Senate districts so that each district meets various legal criteria. House and Senate redistricting maps proposed by Governor Mike Beebe passed a final vote of approval (2-1) by the state Board of Apportionment on July 29, 2011. Therefore, maps 2012 and 2014 follow different district lines. Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 13
Arkansas Ballot Initiatives PASS: 59/44% Issue 1, referred by the legislature s SJR7, would change the legislature s authority in regard to administrative rules created by state agencies from review to review and approve. PASS: 53/47% Issue 2, referred by the legislature s SJR16, would require statewide petition drives to have 75 percent of their signatures be deemed valid before earning an additional 30 days to gather signatures if needed. PASS: 53/47% Issue 3, referred by the legislature s HJR1009, sets term limits at 16 years regardless of chamber, prohibits corporate campaign contributions, sets a citizen salary commission for Constitutional Officers, Legislative and Judicial salaries, prohibits gifts by lobbyists to legislators, and requires legislators to wait two years before registering as lobbyists. FAIL: 57/43% Issue 4, proposed petition of the people, is the Arkansas Alcoholic Beverage Amendment which would allow the manufacture, sale, distribution and transportation of intoxicating liquors in the entire state. PASS: 66/35% Issue 5, proposed petition of the people, is the Act to Increase the Arkansas Minimum Wage. Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 14
2015 Arkansas Legislative Session Preview Under the Dome: Tax Cuts and Budget: In 2013 the 89 th General Assembly passed a record number of tax cuts. Upon completion of the fall budget sessions the 2015 General Assembly s first challenge will focus on prioritizing those cuts to fit within current budget projections. It is expected that legislation similar to 2011 fiscal session state highway funding bill could be repackaged to address concerns from the higher education committee Health Care: No rest for Private Option proponents in Arkansas. After former Speaker Davy Carter s dramatic fiscal session to provide funding for the Private Option (Arkansas solution to take federal Medicaid dollars and purchase private insurance policies for Arkansans below 138 percent of the poverty level), the 90 th General Assembly could open the law up to amendments, changes, transformations or possible elimination. It will take nine senators or 26 House members to block an appropriation. Addressing Community First Choice Option will be a divisive topic as legislators want to disassociate from the Affordable Care Act. Campaign headquarters and government buildings recently saw picketing in an effort to raise awareness. Education: Although rumors of a Special Session to address Broadband expansion to K-12 have quieted, the General Assembly will review their commissioned special study of every school in Arkansas network capabilities and focus on adequacy come January 2015. Groups like the Arkansas State Chamber will be defending Arkansas decision to adopt National Common Core education standards that have recently been under attack by grassroots coalitions. The battle over the state lottery proceeds, K-12 and higher-ed funding will continue to receive scrutiny. Civil Justice Reform: Proponents of Tort Reform were disappointed when it failed to pass in the 89 th General Assembly and will be working through the Associated Industries of Arkansas coordinated 501C4 to organize multi-year reform efforts led by Senate Leadership. Agriculture: In addition to protecting agriculture research and promotion funding, the Agriculture committee will see legislation surrounding Arkansas Grain Trade Regulation in the wake of Brinkley s Turner Grain Merchandising Inc. Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The Arkansas Agriculture Department is drafting legislation in hopes of preventing a similar collapse that could cost farmers and agribusiness millions of dollars in the future. Prison Overcrowding: The State will debate the funding needed to address increased capacity of state prisons prohibiting repeat offenders from early parole. Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 15
2015 Arkansas Legislative Session Preview Behind Closed Doors: Stay on the look out for leadership roles to begin shifting after yesterday s election. Former and current legislators will begin filling Administration posts, leaving vacancies within the General Assembly triggering future special elections. We can confirm longtime Governor Beebe staffer James Miller will join Dismang s Senate administration and we expect Speaker-Elect Gilliam s leadership team to include new players as well. As with any new Administration, state agency director appointments will change but this year legislators predict some key agency restructuring. That is especially the case for the Arkansas Department of Information Services. Third party groups played heavier in the recent primary and general campaigns than ever before. Groups like Conduit for Action and Americans for Prosperity will be actively lobbying in the 90 th General Assembly. Take note of distribution of Chairmanship positions between P.O. and Anti P.O. supporters. Speaker Elect Gillam has worked with Democratic House Caucus and we anticipate that chairmanships will be divided among both republicans and democrats. Senate rules prohibit minority party chairs in A and B Committees. State Republicans now have control of 2/3 of both chambers, and will control all committees and set agendas. This report was distributed the morning of November 5 th, 2014. It will be posted on our website at www.noblestrat.com. We will update as results continue to arrive. Source: Arkansas Secretary of State Unofficial Results Noble Strategies 2014 Election Report 11/5/14 16