Opening of the ESCAP Sub-Regional Office for South and South-West Asia & the High-Level Policy Dialogue on Development Challenges facing the Sub-region Taj Mahal Hotel, New Delhi, 15-16 December 2011 Development tchallenges and Policy Priorities for SSWA: A Perspective from Iran Davood Manzoor, PhD Associate Professor and Deputy Vice-President for Planning Vice-Presidency for Strategic Planning & Supervision I.R. Iran
Economic Growth GDP Growth Rates in the World Regions, 2007 to 2009
Economic Growth GDP Growth Rates in SSWA Countries, 2007 to 2009
Selected Macro Economic Indicator in 2009 Real GDP % Change per annum Real GDP per capita % Change per capita per annum Domestic Investment (% of GDP) Inflation Rate % per annum Economic Sectors (% of Value added) 2008 2009 Agriculture Industry Services - East & North-East Asia (ENEA) - South-East Asia (SEA) 9189 1077 0.5 1.0 5952 1836 0.0-0.1 31.6 25.0 3.2 9.7-0.7 3.4 5.7 12.8 37.1 40.9 57.2 46.3 - South & South-West Asia (SSWE) Afghanistan Bangladeshg 2163 11 74 3.5 22.5 6.0 1234 362 501 2.0 19.6 4.9 28.3 24.6 24.2 12.0-8.9 9.8-5.4 14.5 37.3 18.6 29.6 26.9 28.6 55.9 35.8 52.8 Bhutan India Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka 1 1141 246 1 10 130 31 6.3 7.7 1.8-3.9 6.5 3.7 3.5 1603 945 3363 3196 335 761 1489 4.5 6.2 0.6-5.1 4.6 1.9 2.5 37.9 35.0 32.2 57.5 31.9 19.7 25.3 8.3 8.4 25.5 12.0 10.9 20.3 22.5 4.4 10.9 13.5 4.5 11.6 13.6 3.5 20.6 17.1 9.4 4.9 32.6 20.8 13.8 41.8 28.2 43.6 16.8 15.8 24.3 31.7 37.6 54.6 47.0 78.4 51.6 54.9 54.5 Turkey 518-4.7 7216-5.9 14.9 10.4 6.3 9.1 25.1 65.7 - North & Central Asia (NCA) - Pacific Asia & the Pacific Africa Europe Latin America & Carib. (LAC) North America (NA) Other 1015 988 14432 1185 15054 3141 14074 1066-6.5 3.0 0.5 1.6-4.2-2.1 21-2.6 1.5 4622 27711 3488 1188 25359 5394 41215 7701 6.8 0.2-0.4-0.7-4.4-3.2 32-3.5-1.7 19.5 27.4 29.4 22.5 18.4 19.6 14.3 26.8 14.4 4.4 6.6 12.4 3.8 81 8.1 3.7 9.5 10.9 1.9 2.6 8.2 0.5 67 6.7-0.3 3.3 5.8 3.1 7.4 16.8 1.8 56 5.6 1.1 2.9 34.2 27.0 35.5 37.9 24.8 33.2 22.1 48.8 60.0 69.9 57.1 45.2 73.4 61.2 76.8 48.3 World 49356-2.0 7208-3.1 21.1 5.1 1.5 4.0 29.0 67.0 Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia & the Pacific 2011.
Selected Demographic Indicators % World Population in 2010 % Change per annum Crude Rate in 2010, ( per 1000 Population) Children & Elderly in 2010 (% of Population) Births Deaths Children Elderly % of Population Urban Population % change per annum `Fertility Rate in 2010 (Live Births per Woman) Adolescent Fertility Rate in 2005-2010 (Live Birth per 1000 Woman (aged 15-19) - East & North-East Asia (ENEA) 22.5 0.4 11.9 7.5 18.9 9.5 50.2 2.0 1.6 8.0 - South-East Asia (SEA) 8.61 1.1 18.5 6.6 27.3 5.6 42.0 2.2 2.2 39.3 - South & South-West Asia (SSWE) Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey 25.77 0.46 2.16 0.01 17.76 1.07 0.00 0.43 2.52 0.30 1.06 1.4 2.7 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.3 22.5 43.6 20.3 20.4 22.2 17.1 16.8 24.1 27.3 18.2 17.9 7.7 15.9 6.1 6.9 8.0 5.4 3.6 5.9 7.5 6.6 5.5 30.9 46.4 31.3 29.4 30.6 22.9 26.6 36.2 35.4 24.9 26.4 4.9 2.2 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.2 4.3 8.2 6.0 33.2 22.6 28.1 34.7 30.0 70.8 40.1 18.6 35.9 14.3 69.6 2.4 4.1 3.0 4.0 2.4 2.0 4.6 5.0 2.7 0.7 1.9 2.7 6.3 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.8 2.7 3.4 2.3 2.1 75.4 118.7 78.9 50.2 86.3 29.5 12.2 103.4 31.6 23.6 39.2 - North & Central Asia (NCA) - Pacific Asia & the Pacific Africa Europe Latin America & Carib. (LAC) North America (NA) Other 3.19 053 0.53 60.59 14.82 8.63 8.56 5 2.40 0.3 17 1.7 1.0 2.3 0.2 1.1 0.9 2.6 15.1 17.77 17.6 34.8 10.6 18.5 13.6 27.1 11.8 68 6.8 7.7 11.4 10.5 5.9 8.2 4.7 19.2 23.7 25.3 40.3 15.5 27.9 19.7 30.6 10.4 10.6 7.0 3.5 17.0 6.9 13.2 3.0 63.1 70.77 42.7 40.0 72.7 79.6 82.1 66.9 0.3 18 1.8 2.0 3.5 0.6 1.6 1.2 3.4 1.8 24 2.4 2.1 4.5 1.6 2.2 2.0 3.6 27.6 33.33 45.2 101.3 16.2 73.4 38.6 52.8 World 100 1.2 19.6 8.3 26.8 7.6 50.5 1.9 2.5 55.7 Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia & the Pacific 2011.
Selector External Sector Indicator - East & North-East Asia (ENEA) - South-East Asia (SEA) Merchandise Trade (% of GDP) Merchandise Trade (% change per annum) Exports Imports Exports Imports 2008 2009 2008 2009 28.7 66.0 - South and South-West Asia (SSWE) 18.2 15.0 25.0 20.2 24.4 26.9 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran Maldives 5.0 19.3 41.9 15.2 30.8 27.8 3.1 16.9 39.9 12.8 21.8 13.2 28.0 30.0 43.6 25.1 15.5 116.8 26.0 24.5 42.6 20.0 14.0 75.7 0.0 27.2 0.0 31.1 28.0 0.0 27.3 27.5 60.0 25.5 24.2 10.0 Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey 8.0 13.9 20.8 18.1 - North & Central Asia (NCA) 31.2 26.6 19.2 17.5 31.2 22.7 - Pacific Asia & Pacific Africa Europe Latin America & Carib. (LAC) North America (NA) 18.7 29.9 37.1 32.8 20.6 11.0 16.1 23.9 27.4 28.4 17.1 8.9 20.5 27.9 31.8 33.9 21.0 16.3 17.4 22.2 28.5 28.5 17.0 12.5 35.3 29.6 28.4 12.2 26.8 21.3 20.8 30.2 13.8 12.7 29.6 22.4 Other 62.7 49.0 38.0 36.3 31.1 20.2 World 26.2 21.4 26.7 21.6 21.7 21.0 22.3 55.3 6.4 10.9 17.2 16.6 26.1 62.6 30.5 29.0 34.3 27.7 20.1 49.1 34.3 19.8 23.9 22.9 29.9 29.2 25.0 22.9 16.4 11.6 32.3 31.4 25.0 19.2 33.3 31.9 Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia & the Pacific 2011.
Development Challenges & Policy Priorities for SSWA Sustainable economic growth Job creation and employment Capital formation and reform of financial markets Food security Income distribution and poverty eradication Development of healthcare system making it more equitable and accessible to the poor Sustainable energy supply Securing human rights and enhancing gender rights Global warming and environmental hazards
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy In 2009, Iran's real GDP growth recovered to as compared to 3.5% in 2009, 0.6% in 2008 reflecting strong non-oil growth and an exceptional agriculture crop (with 16.4% growth rate in agriculture sector in 2009). The positive growth momentum continued in 2010 (5.4%). Iran successfully brought down annual average inflation from 25.4% in 2008 to 12.4% in 2010.
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy The early success in the implementation of subsidy reform program. The increases in prices of energy products, public transport, wheat, and bread adopted on December 19, 2010, are estimated to have removed close to $US 40 billion (12% of GDP) in annual implicit subsidies to products. The redistribution of the revenues arising from the price increases to households as cash transfers has been effective in reducing inequalities, improving living standards, and supporting domestic demandd in the economy. The energy price increases are already leading to a decline in extravagant domestic energy consumption.
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy While the subsidy reform is expected to result in a transitory slowdown in economic growth and temporary increase in the inflation rate, it should considerably improve Iran s medium term outlook by rationalizing i domestic energyuse,increasing i export revenues, strengthening efficiency and competitiveness. Iran has been successful in controlling the initial impact of the energy price increases on inflation. Iran is to pursue efforts to improve the business environment to support the creation of new enterprises and jobs.
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy Tehran stock exchange Price Index Trend, 1991 to 2009 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy Iran s Non-Oil Exports, 2003 to 2009 -($US m) 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy Main Partners of Iran s Non-Oil Exports (March 2007-March 2008, $US m) UAE; 2153 IRAQ; 1586 CHINA; 1231 JAPAN; 927 IN D IA; 830 SOUTH KOREA; 555 TURKEY; 553 ITALY ; 518 AFGHANISTAN; 442 GERMANY; 367 OTHERS; 6010
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy Implementation of Privatization, Billion Rial, 2005 to 2010
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy The Ratio of Government Expenditure to GDP, 1959-2007
Proved Natural gas reserves of world and Iran's share world Iran 18% Middle East 82% World
Gas Reserve of Iran Trillion Cubic Meter Subject Gas In Place Recoverable Gas Recovery Factor (Percent) Accumulative Production to the End Of 2005 Remaining gas in 2006 Land 22.099 15.023 67.980 2.327 12.696 Offshore 23.291 18.117 77.784 0.266 17.851 Total 45.390 33.140 73.011 2.593 30.547
Main Gas Fields of IRAN
Gas Production It is planned to increase the production of gas from about 550 (mcm/d) to 1452 (mcm/d) in 2017. 38% Of the final total production in 2017 will be used for export by pipeline pp or in the form of LNG.
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy Boosting the private sector's role in the national economic growth, and increasing the cooperative sector'ss share to 25% in economic activities; Reducing the unemployment rate to 7% in 2015 from the current 11% through creating an average 990,000 jobs annually; Increase the value of non-oil oil exports would to $110 billion by the end of the plan $20 billion investment annually in the oil and gas sector
Iran s Economic Performance and Policy 20% of the oil revenues would be deposited in the 'National Development Fund'. 10% annual reduction in the reliance of public sector budget to oil incomes mainly through increasing the ratio of tax to GDP from 7.3% to 10% Enhancing the health lthinsurance and ddecreasing the direct people share in health expenditure to 30% by the end of the plan; Increasing the country s research budget to 3% of the GDP and establishing effective relations between universities and industry. Enhancing the health insurance and decreasing the direct people share in health expenditure to 30% by the end of the plan;
Boosting Iran SSWA Cooperation Promoting intra-regional regional and inter-regional regional connectivity through the association of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with plans under the ECO framework Membership of Iran in South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Economic cooperation: trade, investment and banking services Technical fields: ICT, nano-technology, bio- technology, aerospace
Boosting Iran SSWA Cooperation Infrastructure and transport cooperation: railway networks, road links,,gas pipelines pp and electricity network interconnections Renewing ancient trade routes such as the old Silk Route through the trans-asian rail and road networks to facilitate intra-regional and inter-regional trade, Role of Iran as an important trade and business junction for the promotion of connectivity between South Asia - Central Asia, and South Asia Europe: specially the Islamabad- Tehran-Istanbul freight service and North Corridor a trade route from Russia to India through Central Asia, Afghanistan and Iran
Boosting Iran SSWA Cooperation North-South Corridor: development of a railway connection of about 4,500 km from St. Petersburg to the port of Bandar Abbas (Iran) in the Persian Gulf and a shorter connection between North-Western and Central Europe with the countries in Middle East and dsouth hai Asia The only missing link along the North-South Corridor being the 375-km long Qazvin Astara Rasht, 300 km located in Iran.
The Role Of Islamic Republic Of Iran In Gas Business 1. Gas Export Through Pipeline 2. LNG Export 3. Transmit From Turkmenistan to South of Iran 4. Swap of Gas Between Neighbouring Countries
Gas Transfer Methods Comparison
Proposed Gas Export Projects Nakhchivan Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Ukraine Europe Turkmenistan (Import) Turkey, Europe & abucco Afghanistan Pakistan India Persian Gulf (UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, ) LNG
IPI (Iran-Pakistan-Indai) Gas Pipeline This pipeline could be extended to China
Proposed Gas export Routes to Europe 1- Gas Export from Azebaijan- Armenia Georgia- Russia- Ukraine 2- Gas Export from Turkey- Armenia Georgia- Russia- Ukraine 3- Gas Export route from turkey Bulgaria Romania Hungry & Austria( Connection to NABOCO ) 4- Gas Export route from turkey Greece & Italy
Proposed Gas Export Line to Oman Hengam