Speech Egmontpaleis: Migration in 2050 Ladies and Gentlemen, This conference invites us all to reflect on the migration policy of the future. I was asked to formulate an ideal vision on the migration policy of 2050. A fascinating task. The year 2050 lies well beyond the scope of the current governmental agreement and even beyond that of most political programs. It requires me to reflect out of the box, in full intellectual freedom, about the migration policy of the future. A mental exercise that exceeds the political rationality of today and even of the decades to come. Let us look back on the last 35 years and we will see they have profoundly changed Europe. Scores of radical social, political and economic evolutions have taken place, on a scale hardly imaginable to the individual in 1980. Total secularization, the merging of West and Eastern Europe into an ever closer European Union and the rise of new political parties to name but some. Observers in 1980 may have predicted these evolutions, but none could have foreseen how far reaching their impact would be. This is especially true when it comes to the phenomenon of migration.
When Belgium s Alien Law was enacted in 1980, mass migration was widely seen as something belonging to the past, linked to the invitation of guest workers during the booming fifties and sixties. With the oil crisis came unemployment and a governmental decision to close the border for migrant workers: the migration-stop of 1974. Very few migrants arrived in the years after, to the extent that emigration exceeded immigration in the early eighties. What observers in 1980 had not, and could not, foresee, was a political shift towards a pro-immigration policy in Europe from the late nineties onwards. It was the time of Fukuyama s End of History. A self-confident Europe opened up to migrants. Integration and economic growth were taken for granted and immigration was to be hailed as an opportunity. Family reunification and naturalization procedures were stripped of conditions and a mass regularization of undocumented migrants was pursuit. Migration swelled. In the coming decade, Belgium transformed from a relatively homogenous society, with pockets of migrant communities in industrial cities, to a country that is diverse even in its tiniest village. By the year 2015, a staggering one in five inhabitants were born outside of Belgium. This is more than in the United States of America. In the past 25 years, Europe has become a continent of migrants and Belgium a nation of immigrants.
Ladies and Gentlemen, some of you might wonder why I talk so much about the past, in a speech that is supposed to outline a vision for the future. What I want to say is that the next 35 years will transform Europe at least as profoundly, and unexpectedly, as the last 35 years did. Once again, migration will be of paramount importance in this transformation. None in this room, nor in Europe s many universities, can predict the outlook of Europe in 2050. I shall therefore focus my speech on the quest for an ideal migration policy that, according to my humble insights, may assure the economic and social well-being of Belgium and Europe in 2050. Ladies and gentlemen, Few tend to realize it, but the profound mutation of our society through migration we see today, is but a snapshot of an evolution which is manifesting itself at an ever increasing pace. Hence, any reflection on the future has become impossible without a strong focus on immigration. When doing so, we are confronted with a fundamental question: can we, and must we, view upon the present as a herald of the future? The immigration-policy of Europe, and Belgium in particular, has been characterized mainly by the passive acceptance of unintended immigration flows.
An open asylum system and frequent regularization campaigns combined with a generous system of family reunification resulted in a kind of half-open border policy. Unsurprisingly, a mere one in four migrants today come to Belgium on work or study visa. Few will argue that this passive model of immigration has been successful. In far too many cases, the immigrants lacked the vocational skills needed to participate on an ever more demanding European labour market. Unlike the invited guest workers of the fifties and sixties, the new migrants entered a saturated labour market. Sadly, this evolution triggered a massive and structural unemployment among a great deal of Europe s migrant populations. Ladies and Gentlemen, If this passive migration policy is upheld in the next 35 years, it will once again change the face of Europe beyond recognition. But all of this remains off course to be seen. It is very uncertain that the passive migration policy of the last 15 years will remain in force in the next 35. I consider this is even unlikely, since more and more European policy makers are convinced of its detrimental effects. When it comes to migration policy, the present may not be a herald of the future. Those of you who follow the European political debate on this matter, which I assume you all do, know that Europe has come to a fundamental crossroads in its migration history.
The migration crisis of 2015 has brutally awoken Europe from its lethargy and forced its policymakers to fundamentally rethink its migration policy. I would say: Finally!. In the historic summer and autumn of 2015, Europe lost complete control of its borders. More than a million people crossed the external Schengen border without the proper visa. Many were seeking safety from war and persecution, others were merely looking for greener pastures. Once crossed, they were all left to roam Europe s long and winding roads towards their preferred member states. The popular destinations happened to be merely a hand full of Europe s 28 member states. Those states suddenly found themselves confronted with a massive influx of refugees. In the case of the Netherlands, Sweden and Austria, this influx resulted in political upheaval. In those countries the far right is set to become the dominant political force. All of this was of course not quite what German Chancellor Angela Merkel had in mind when she pronounced her historic Wir Schaffen Das. Unsurprisingly, the consequences of the migration crisis have caused a reality check among policy makers from both the right and the left. The closing of the Balkan-route and the EU-Turkey deal is the fruit of this reality-check. When looked upon by future generations of historians, the migration crisis of 2015 may prove to have been a decisive catharsis in Europe s approach to migration.
The belief in open borders and the free circulation of persons has received a severe blow by the events of 2015. Alas, this is valid also for the belief in Europe s capacity to manage migration. A new political dichotomy has now emerged that separates the partisans of renationalization of migration policy, including the abolishment of the Schengen Zone, and those that champion an increased, if not total, Europeanization of migration policy. Which side eventually will prevail, might be decided in the very near future. The referendum on the Brexit and the upcoming elections in France, the Netherlands and Sweden might prove to be of great importance for the future of Europe s migration policy in years, if not decades, to come. Ladies and Gentlemen, How can we finally break this migration deadlock and move towards a migration policy that will safeguard Europe s peace and prosperity for future generations? That is the question we should ask ourselves on this conference today. It is my personal opinion that such a policy is indeed possible, but it will require a paradigm shift in European thinking about migration. We should finally put an end to the silly notion that migration is an uncontrollable natural phenomenon. Let me refer to the growth of irregular migration to Europe in the last decade as an example.
Indeed, external factors which we do not control, such as war, drought or overpopulation on Europe s periphery, have all added to the migration pressure on our borders. But equally influential for the rise in irregular migration were Europe s own actions. The abolition of push-back-policy on the Mediterranean and the end of Dublintransfers to Greece, resulting from the Strassburg arrests Hirsi Jamaa and M.S.S., all played a vital role in triggering irregular migration. If we analyze the impact of our own actions, we will realize that we dispose of real possibilities to control migration if we put our minds to it. It is about time we identify these possibilities and start to shape a real migration policy. A policy in which Europe is not passively undergoing migration flows, but instead is actively organizing them. To draw up such a policy seems a daunting, if not impossible, task. The legacy of the European policy of the final decades, as well as that of its member states, can hardly be considered positive. But the world is far bigger than Europe. Other countries can serve as a beacon for inspiration. Countries that have incorporated far more migrants in the past and that are even built on immigration. European policymakers should gear their goggles towards the New World. Towards Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand in particular. Those countries possess the experience and provide the results Europe will need in this volatile 21th century.
Let me take Canada as a leading example for Europe. Every year the Canadians establish a contingent of labour immigration, based upon a very detailed list of the needs on its labour market. This active, chosen, labour migration makes up a staggering 65 % of the total immigration to Canada. Canada is gearing its migration and it pays off. Ladies and gentlemen, If Europe wants to flourish in 2050, it is my conviction that a radical shift in migration policy is needed. A shift towards a Europeanization AND a Canadization of its migration policy. The bulk of our immigration should consist of highly skilled economic immigrants, selected according to the needs of the labour markets of the individual member states. At the same time, the fight must be stepped up. The migration pressure on Europe s boundaries will continue to mount. A gallup poll of 2011 showed that 36 % of adults in Sub-Saharian Africa would migrate to Europe if they were offered the opportunity. The United Nation Population Division expects the African population to double by 2050 to a total of 2,4 billion people. The African population is currently growing by 30 million a year, nearly the size of Canada s total population. 1 1 http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jan/11/population-growth-inafrica-grasping-the-scale-of-the-challenge
Given that income disparity is still the most important trigger for migration, it is only logical that more and more Africans will want to migrate to Europe. In this geopolitical context, the current half-open border policy of Europe will quickly become untenable. In the globalized 21th century, control over who comes in and who goes out will become a conditio sine qua non for the stable economic and social development of Europe. Just like Australia, Europe will be forced to send a clear, but morally complex, message to irregular migrants: You will not make Europe home. Does this mean that Europe should shut its door to those fleeing war and persecution? Evidently the answer is no. Europe will continue to be a safe haven for refugees, but it will choose the most vulnerable amongst them from refugee camps under the auspices of the UNHCR, instead of taking in those that are fit and wealthy enough to pay for an illegal entry. Ladies and gentlemen, I have come to my concluding remarks. In those remarks I would like to talk to you about the moral dilemma all policy makers in migration have to face. No doubt I have offended some in the audience with my plea for strong border controls. Indeed, from a moral point of view, the migrant is always right. I stress always, because this is valid not only for refugees, but for all migrants.
What all migrants have in common, both refugees, irregular migrants and labour migrants, is their aspiration for a better life. They are, in short, in pursuit of happiness. This pursuit of happiness is a universal human trait. It is even an universal human value, enshrined in the American Declaration of Independence by Thomas Jefferson. Taking this into account, it seems morally unfair to hinder, let alone prohibit, certain forms of immigration. But as policymakers, my European colleagues and I must govern in the general interest of the entire society. That general interest sometimes collides with the collective aspirations, how morally just they may be, of the individual migrants. To clarify this, I would like to refer to a term borrowed from the ecological debate: sustainability. Is it sustainable to allow many hundreds of thousands of low-skilled immigrants on a labour market that has no need for low-skilled labour? Is it sustainable to allow immigration on a scale that exceeds the social and cultural absorption capacity, and in so doing to undermine the implicit solidarity amongst the citizens? In 2007 the American sociologist Robert Putnam established a link between increasing diversity through immigration and the loss of social solidarity and social capital in society. Right and Left will both agree that the passive European migration policy of the final decades is not sustainable. Only by bringing migration under control and organizing it can it be sustainable.
The examples of Canada, Australia, the U.S. and New-Zealand provide us with examples that this is in fact possible to achieve. When done properly, an active migration policy may even be instrumental in strengthening society. Ladies and Gentlemen, In 2050 Europe will look, again, totally different. In the worst case the continent will experience growing social and economic segregation between the various communities. In the best case it will evolve into a Brave New World of economic growth, while safeguarding its social welfare, the rule of law and the individual liberty that render it such an attractive place to live. One thing will be for sure: Europe will be ethnically and culturally diverse, many times more so even than today. But that perspective does not need to haunt anybody, if the true essence of European society is safeguarded. Allow me therefore to conclude with a tale of a very old European, hailing from a member state that is playing a vital role in Europe s current migration history: the classic Greek historian Plutarch. On his frequent and lengthy journeys, the Athenian hero Theseus always sailed the same ship. Storms, collisions and sea battles caused the ship much damage. Time and time again Theseus repaired his ship with great care and dedication. At one point he realized that he had replaced every mast, every plank, and every sail of the ship, but yet it remained his ship.
It remained the same vessel he had set out to sail from Pyraeus, many decades before. This paradox is highly relevant to the quest for identity in the hyper diverse European societies of the 21th century. Just like Theseus ship, the Europe of 2050 will be built from different materials. But it will still be Europe, if its prosperity, rule of law, individual liberty and secularity will remain pillars of its civilization. To achieve this goal will be a huge task, but not impossible. It is my personal conviction that this will require a mature, self-confident and active migration policy. Let make it happen. I thank you all for your attention.