Chapter 10 Three Groups of Individuals The Individual p Foreign-policy elites p Private individuals p Mass publics Zhongqi Pan 1 Zhongqi Pan 2 Ø Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch. p The head of government is responsible for making policy. p The country needs to have a single voice abroad. p Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government. Zhongqi Pan 3 Ø The Liberals: leaders do make a difference. p Individual leaders and their personal characteristics do make a difference in foreign policy, and hence in relations. EG: Nicolae Ceausescu EG: Mikhail Gorbachev Zhongqi Pan 4 Ø Constructivists: individual elites are important. p The monumental changes in the Soviet Union result not only from Gorbachev s New Thinking, but also from new ideas of the policy entrepreneurs, the networks of Western-oriented reformists and affairs specialists. Ø Realists and radicals: individual leaders do NOT make much of a difference in foreign policy because the structure of the system is more important than individuals. EG: Romania EG: the Soviet Union Zhongqi Pan 5 Zhongqi Pan 6 1
Ø Two questions are most pertinent to determining the role of individuals in relations: p When are the actions of individuals likely to have a greater or lesser effect on the course of events? p And under what circumstances do different actors (in terms of personal characteristics) behave differently? Ø The Impact of Elites: External Conditions p An individual s actions affect the course of events when at least one of several factors is present. Zhongqi Pan 7 Zhongqi Pan 8 The Impact of Individual Elites When political institutions are Ø unstable Ø young Ø in crisis Ø collapsed Individual leaders affect the course of events When institutional constraints are limited When the issue or situation is Ø peripheral Ø unusual Ø ambiguous p When political institutions are unstable, young, in crisis, or collapsed, leaders are able to provide powerful influences. George Washington Vladimir Lenin Mao Zedong Adolf Hitler Franklin Roosevelt Mikhail Gorbachev Zhongqi Pan 9 Zhongqi Pan 10 p When individuals have few institutional constraints, they also affect the course of events. In dictatorial regimes In democratic regimes EG: Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger and US-China rapprochement in 1972 p When the issue is peripheral rather than central, when the issue is not routine, or when the situation is ambiguous and information is unclear, decision-makers personal characteristics have more influence on outcomes. Crisis situations EG: the Cuban missile crisis Zhongqi Pan 11 Zhongqi Pan 12 2
Ø The Impact of Elites: Factors p Personality p Degree of control over foreign policy p Sense of political efficacy p Amount of available information p Ability to deal with crises Zhongqi Pan 13 Ø The Impact of Elites: The Personality Factor p Margaret Hermann has found a number of personality characteristics that affect foreign-policy behaviors. Personality Characteristics of Leaders Nationalism Perception of control Need for power Need for affiliation Conceptual complexity Distrust of others Zhongqi Pan 14 p These personality characteristics orient an individual s view of foreign affairs, either an independent or a participatory orientation. p These personal characteristics and their respective orientations are related to the foreign-policy behavior of the leaders. Zhongqi Pan 15 Foreign Policy Orientations Independent high in nationalism leader high in perception of control high in need for power low in conceptual complexity high in distrust of others Participatory leader low in nationalism low in perception of control high in need for affiliation high in conceptual complexity low in distrust of others Zhongqi Pan 16 Ø Individual Decision-making p Elite images, perceptions, or operational codes a belief system influence how the decision-maker process information, which is neither perfect nor complete. John Foster Dulles and US policy toward the Soviet Union Henry Kissinger and the Vietnam War Zhongqi Pan 17 Ø Information-Processing Mechanisms p Image and perception are continually impacted by new, overwhelming, and discordant information. p Images and belief systems are not generally changed. p Thus, individual elites utilize a number of psychological mechanisms to process the information. Zhongqi Pan 18 3
Psychological Mechanisms Used to Process Information Technique Example Cognitive Prior to the Japanese attack on consistency Pearl Harbor Evoked set The Korean War as a precedent of the Vietnam War Mirror image U.S. viewed the Soviet Union in the Cold War Groupthink Planning group for the Bay of Pigs operation against Cuba Satisficing Private Individuals Ø Private individuals carry out independent actions in IR. p Positive role in conflict resolution EG: track-ii diplomacy (Ethiopia, Israel and Palestine, NK, Northern Ireland) Jimmy Carter won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002 for his efforts. p Positive role in cooperation EG: flying tiger NATO s action in Kosovo Zhongqi Pan 19 Zhongqi Pan 20 Private Individuals p Negative role in threatening security EG: terrorist activities p Negative role in destroying cooperation EG: George Soros and 1990s Asian Financial Crisis p Critical theorists, postmodernists, and constructivists pay much attention to the private individuals. Ø Mass publics do have influence on foreign policy. p Mass publics have the same psychological tendencies as elite individuals and small groups. EG: American public perceptions and images and the hostage crisis in Iran in November 1979. Zhongqi Pan 21 Zhongqi Pan 22 Public Influence on Foreign Policy Mass publics Think and act the same as elites: share common psychology, share biological characteristics Can express opinion, and cause elites to adjust Ø Elites and Masses: Common Traits p Common psychological and biological traits: territorial imperative frustration-aggression p Male vs. female Act without constraints of formal institutions Zhongqi Pan 23 Zhongqi Pan 24 4
Ø The Impact of Public Opinion on Elites p Publics do have general foreign-policy orientations and occasionally may vote directly on an foreign-policy issue. Popular referendums in Denmark, Norway, Switzerland, Ireland. p Even though elite-made policy is not a direct reflection of public attitudes, public opinion does act as a constraint on elites. Zhongqi Pan 25 Ø Mass Actions by a Leaderless Public p At times, the masses, essentially leaderless, take collective actions that have significant effects on the course of world politics. EG: the construction and tearing down of the Berlin Wall Zhongqi Pan 26 Foreign policy elites Constrained by anarchic system and national interests Significant impact on relations through choices and personality factors Constrained by capitalist system Zhongqi Pan 27 Private individuals Actions of private individuals only have effect in aggregate, as reflected in national interest Secondary role, but may be involved in two-track diplomacy and may fund important initiatives Individual capitalists may be influential Zhongqi Pan 28 Mass publics Actions may be reflected in national interest May affect relations through mass actions that pressure state decisionmakers Agents of potential change In Sum: How Much Do Individuals Matter? p Realists and radicals do not recognize the importance of individuals. They see individuals as primarily constrained by the system and by the state. p For liberals, the actions of individuals matter immensely. p Individual s role via IGOs, NGOs, and law Zhongqi Pan 29 Zhongqi Pan 30 5