12 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 2.1 POPULATION The Water Services Development Plan: Demographic Report (October December 2000, WSDP) provides a detailed breakdown of population per settlement area for the Abaqulusi Municipal area. According to this report the study area had a population figure of 224 546 in 2000. The 1996 Census Data was processed by the Municipal Demarcation Board and published on their web site. According to the data, Abaqulusi Municipality had a total population of 123 445 which is 45% lower than the WSDP figure. It is accepted that the WSDP figures are more current and are used for the purpose of this study. The WSDP did not provide any other demographic information. The trends and ratios of the Demarcation Board (from their web site, 2001) are based on the 1996 census figures and are applied to the WSDP data to determine important demographic trends within the study area (refer to Annexure H). The table below compares the population data of the Demarcation Board and WSDP in more detail. It indicates the distribution of the population within the study area in terms of the main settlement areas, which comprise the Municipal area: Settlement Area Demarcation Board, 2001 % of Total Population Population 2000 WSDP % Of Total Population (WSDP) Hlahlindlela and 53 630 43 137 393 61 surroundings/ EMondlo Vryheid 44 874 36 34 058 15 Khambi 5 764 6 21 282 9 Mthethwa/Hlobane 8 354 7 16 910 8 Brakfontein 7 944 6 7 944* 3 Louwsburg 2 879 2 3 120 2 Glückstadt 0 0 2 395 1 Boschoek 0 0 1 444 1 TOTAL 123 445 100 224 546 100 *Demarcation Board Data (Source: Demarcation Board Web Site & WSDP, 2000) It is clear that the majority of the population is centred around Hlahlindlela Tribal Area and emondlo in the south-western part of the Municipal area. Ezingadini and Sofaya are also densely populated with approximately 17 500 people per km² (WSDP, 2000). Only 36,6% of the population lives in the formal urban areas of Vryheid, Hlobane, Louwsburg, emondlo and Glückstadt. Vryheid is the largest urban area in the Abaqulusi area and most of the support services are located in Vryheid. It is significant to note that 85% of the population of the Municipal area lives outside Vryheid. 2.2 RACE DISTRIBUTION According to the Demarcation Board the race distribution in the study area as depicted in the chart below:
13 Race Distribution White 7% Other 1% Black 92% The Abaqulusi population is reasonably homogeneous with 92% being black and mostly of the Zulu culture. The white population constitutes only 7% of the population and is mainly concentrated in Vryheid and Louwsburg. There is a substantial white rural farming community and roughly three quarters of the land is utilized for commercial farming and in white ownership. The ethnicity and culture of the Zulu community in the rural and tribal areas play an important role in today s education levels and vocational distribution of women in particular. In the past it was not common practice for young girls to attend school. If they did it was only to achieve the most basic level of literacy and numeracy. Today the legacies of such practices are evident and are discussed in more detail in some of the following sections. 2.3 GENDER DISTRIBUTION The gender distribution of Abaqulusi is depicted below: 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% Male Female There are significantly more women than men in Abaqulusi, implying that the area could be affected by the migration of male workers to other areas to seek employment opportunities. This is fairly common in most rural areas and smaller urban nodes. Abaqulusi is however not as affected by this phenomenon as other areas of KwaZulu Natal where the gender distribution is even more skewed.
14 The possible migration of male workers can be ascribed to the closing down of coalmines near Vryheid that provided jobs until recently. The coal-mining sector has been severely affected by the downturn in economic activity and all large-scale mining activities have cased. The increase in the resulting unemployment levels in all likelihood gave rise to an emigration of males to other areas in search of new job opportunities. This inevitably increases the burden on women to head households and manage the homesteads in their partner s absence. 2.4 AGE GROUP DIFFERENTIATION The population of Abaqulusi has the following demographic distribution in term of age: 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 49 50 to 64 Over 65 Unknown Age (Source: WDSP, 2000) The Abaqulusi population is relatively young, with the majority of the population (88%) under the age of 50 years. Close to 100 000 people (44% of the population) fall within the economically active group and burden the economy of the area to create sufficient employment opportunities. The data also shows that 38% of the total population is currently of school-going age. This has implications for the delivery of good education, health and welfare facilities. A total of 56% of the population are younger than 20 years of age and older than 65 (pensioners). This implies a high dependency rate and an increased strain on already tight household budgets. It also burdens the with their limited resources to respond to these demands. The relatively young population also signifies high potential for population growth in the future. However, it is also this part of the population that is most under the potential threat of HIV/AIDS infection. 2.5 GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND TRENDS According to the Zululand Regional Plan and the Abaqulusi Sub-Regional Plan, an annual growth rate of 2,1% is predicted. However the debate about the levels of HIV/AIDS infection within the study area cannot be ignored. A report by the Development Bank of South Africa (DBSA) in 2000, i.e. Provincial Population Projections, 1996-2021 predicts a steady decline
15 in the average annual population compound growth rates for KwaZulu Natal over the next 20 years. The following gives an indication of projected population growth in the Abaqulusi Municipal Area when applying the DBSA growth rates to the WSDP base year population figure: Population forecasts for the next 20 years. Year 2000 2005 2010 2012 2020 Growth rate Base year 1,44% 0,96% 0,58% 0,08% Population 224 546 241 186 252 987 260 409 261 453 Population Growth Projection Population 270000 260000 250000 240000 230000 220000 210000 200000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Over the next 20 years a conservative total population increase of 36 907 (16.44%) persons is expected. 2.6 HEALTH Health indicators for the province, according to the Zululand Regional Plan reveal poor basic health conditions. The province is characterized by poverty-related diseases such as tuberculosis (TB), diarrhoea related diseases, acute respiratory illnesses and nutritional problems (Zululand Regional Plan, 1998). KwaZulu-Natal also has the highest level of HIV/AIDS infections in the country (Development Bank of South Africa, 2000). Infant mortality rate (IMR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are indicative of poverty. Statistics provided in the Health Informatics Bulletin for April 1996 to 1997 estimate that there are 31 deaths for every 1 000 births. This is above average in comparison with the rest of South Africa. HIV/AIDS will have a significant negative impact on the whole society. Approximately 34% of the South African population is already infected with the HIV virus that causes AIDS (DBSA, 2000). South Africa experiences the fastest growing infection rate in the world. KwaZulu Natal had the highest recorded HIV positive rate in the country between 1997 and 1999, indicating that the impact is likely to be more severe here than in the rest of the country. It is expected that the population increase in the study area will therefore remain relatively constant, growing only 0,8% over the next 20 years. The social and economic impact of this
16 disease will however be severe decrease in productivity, increased labour cost, increased number of orphans and street children, increased poverty and increased in crime, to name but a few (Prof. P S Robinson, University of Natal, 2001). IDP CHALLENGE: The population of the is not expected to increase significantly over the next 20 years. However, with the high rate of HIV/AIDS infections characterising the population, special planning is required to pre-empt the social and economic implications of this pandemic. The emphasis should not only be on the development of basic infrastructure, but also on the development of social, health and education services aimed at breaking cycle of poverty. 2.7 EDUCATION LEVELS To understand the economic make-up of the community the analysis of statistics relating to levels of education, employment/unemployment and income is quite insightful. The following graph gives an indication of the levels of education of the Abaqulusi community: Levels of Education 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% No school Grade 1to7 Grade 9to 11 Matric Diploma Tertiaty Other Under 5 years The chart above indicates that the largest percentage (60.15%) of the population has some form of primary or secondary education, whilst very few have formal tertiary training. 3.4% of the Abaqulusi population has an unspecified qualification, which can be interpreted as some form of skills training. A staggering 22.31% of the population however has no schooling. It is evident from the statistics that the Abaqulusi population has a basic level of education but that the levels of further education are low. This has a significant impact on employability, the type of job opportunities that can be sought and the vocational distribution of the economically active population. The urban centres within Abaqulusi present a slightly better picture with regard to education levels, but generally the skills base remains low (Vryheid Economic Regeneration Study, 2001).
17 2.8 INCOME LEVELS AND POVERTY From the graph below it is clear that the annual household income in Abaqulusi is very low. 20% of the population reported that no income was earned and a further 11% eared less than R2400,00 per year (less than R200,00 per month). Low-income levels are indicative of low affordability levels for basic services, housing and health services. Annual Household Income 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 None 1-2400 2401-6000 6001-12000 12001-18000 18001-30000 30001-42000 42001-54000 54001-72000 72001-96000 96001-132000 132001-192000 192001-360000 over 360000 unspecified The current situation paints a bleak picture in terms of the ability of the Abaqulusi community to meet their basic needs and improve their quality to life. Studies of low-income households have shown that only 20% to 40% of total income is derived from salaries and wages. A large portion of a low-income family s revenue comes from remittances and social grants. According to the Zululand Regional Plan, the average household size of this region is eight members, although this number varies by race, the sex of the household head and geographic location. An eight-member household means that the per capita or individual income is approximately R25,00 each month within the low-income group. Most of the poverty-stricken households of Abaqulusi are located in the two Tribal Areas. The urbanised population is generally better off than the rural community where communities will probably not be able to afford housing and other services. The provision of basic and essential services to the communities of these rural areas would be one of the greatest challenges of the new. The chart below indicates the geographic distribution of the average monthly household income in the Municipal area (WSDP, 2001). na
18 Geographic Distribution of Household Income Levels 30000 25000 20000 R/month 15000 10000 5000 0 2.9 EMPLOYMENT Unemployment is a serious problem in South Africa, particularly affecting rural areas and unskilled, illiterate people. The economy in South Africa is growing in the tertiary sector, in line with many first world countries in the world, while a large proportion of the South African population does not have the qualifications and skills to find employment in the secondary or tertiary sectors. Even the skills required today to actively participate in strengthening our primary sector disqualify hundreds of people from earning a living. The chart below reflects the employment situation in Abaqulusi: Employment 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Employed Unemployed Not looking House wife Student Pensioner Disabled Other Under 15 Hlahlindlela Khambi Brakfontein emondlo Louwsburg Vryheid
19 The above table indicates that only 15,59% of the population is employed, the rest (193 921 persons) is willingly or unwillingly unemployed. This means that every employed person in the area supports 6,5 unemployed persons of which 3 are over the age of 15. Unemployment per se is clearly relatively low, but the dependency rate is very high. 2.10 OCCUPATION AND EMPLOYMENT PER INDUSTRY SECTOR The occupations of the majority of the household heads (53%) are blue-collar occupations. By definition these are workers involved in semi- and unskilled work. Of this, a significant percentage (49%) is involved in elementary occupations, which are mostly labourers or domestic workers. The breakdown of occupations is illustrated in the chart below. Vocation 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Senior Management Professional Technical Clerks Service Related Skilled Craft & Trade Plant Machine Elementary Unspecified (Demarcation Board, 2001) Employment per Economic Sector is illustrated in the chart below: Employment per Economic Sector % 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Diplomatic Exterritorial Utilities Business Construction Transport Manufacturing Mining Trade Private Households Farming Social Services
20 The social sector employs the highest percentage (17.69 %) of the labour forces. This can be ascribed to a high number of people living in Vryheid, but employed in the government sector in Ulundi. The second highest employer is the farming sector with 13,18% with private households coming in the third position, employing 12,54% of the workforce. The mining sector only provides for 8.68% of the employment opportunities in Abaqulusi. 2.11 DIFFERENTIATIONAL ANALYSIS Within Abaqulusi differentiation between the urban areas and rural settlements is recognised. This is mainly due to historic settlement patterns based on racial segregation. The differentiation relates to demographics and socio-economic conditions. Selected statistics are provided in the following paragraphs to illustrate this point. The various settlements within Abaqulusi can be defined in terms of their predominant communities: Vryheid is an urban settlement and former White area, with Bhekuzulu as its former black township; Louwsburg is an urban settlement and former White area; EMondlo is an urban settlement and a former black township of Vryheid; Hlahlindlela and surroundings is a tribal area, has many rural settlements and it is predominantly a black area; and Khambi is also a tribal area, consists of many rural settlements and it is predominantly a black area. 2.11.1 Population Size and Density Population & Households Khambi Hlahlindela emondlo Louwsburg Vryheid Households Population 0 50000 100000 150000 Number of HH & Population (Demarcation Board, 2001) The above chart clearly indicates that there is a major concentration of people in the Hlahlindlela and surrounding area, which is rural and undeveloped.
21 Number of People per Household 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Vryheid Louwsburg emondlo Hlahlindlela Khambi (Demarcation Board, 2001) The number of people per household differs between the urban and the rural areas with an average of six (6) people per household in the urban areas as apposed to almost double the number of people per household in the rural areas i.e. 11,7 persons per household. 2.11.2 Race Group Differentiation Race Group 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Vryheid Louwsburg emondlo Hlahlindela Khambi (Demarcation Board, 2001) It is apparent that black people dominate both urban and rural areas. Smaller White communities are restricted to Vryheid and Louwsburg, with a small percentage of Coloured people also in Vryheid. The race group differentiation is the result of the former apartheid policy, which instituted the physical segregation of people on the basis of race. Overall the abolishment of apartheid has not yet led to physical integration within specific areas.
22 2.11.3 Gender Differentiation The gender distribution is uneven though the entire area with roughly 10% more females than males. In Hlahlindlela and surroundings the distribution is even more uneven with 16% more women than men. This is an indication of socio-economic conditions where women run numerous households where men seek employment in other urban centres. Generally it is accepted that women are more disadvantaged in terms of income and other resources. G ender D ifferentiation 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Male Female 20% 10% 0% Vryheid Louwsburg emondlo Hlahlindela Khambi (Demarcation Board, 2001) 2.11.4 Income Differentiation The chart below indicates geographic distribution of the average monthly household income in the Municipal area. Geographic Distribution of Household Income Levels 30000 25000 R/month 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Vryheid Louwsburg Emondlo Hlahlindlela Khambi Brakfontein (Demarcation Board, 2001) From the above it is clear most poverty stricken households are located in the two Tribal Areas and that the urbanised population is generally better off than the rural community. This graph also indicates that those located in the rural areas will probably not be able to afford
23 housing and other services. One of the greatest challenges of the new Municipality is to provide basic and essential services to these communities. According to paragraph 2.1,at least 63% of Abaqulusi s population live in the rural areas of the municipality. 2.12 SUMMARY OF SOCIO ECONOMIC ISSUES The following points summarize the most important socio-economic issues: Vryheid is the largest town in terms of services in Abaqulusi and therefore plays an important regional role. Abaqulusi consists of a large rural population (63%), with only a third of its people living in the urban areas. This places enormous pressure for the delivery of services. The rural population lives in two large concentrations, namely Hlahlindlela and surroundings and Khambi Tribal Area accommodating 51,5% and 9% of the total population respectively. The Hlahlindlela and surrounding area is also the most densely populated area with 11,7 people per household. The rural population depends on nearby urban areas such as emondlo, Vryheid and Louwsburg for services because of the lack in basic services and social services within these rural areas. This places enormous pressure on service delivery. The Hlahlindlela and surrounding area is characterised by 16% more women than men. Women are assumed to be acting as household heads in the absence of partners seeking employment in other urban centres. It is also accepted that these women are more disadvantaged in terms of resources. Half (50.89%) of the population is children, placing pressure on the need for educational and social facilities. Many of these children will be orphaned as a result of HIV/AIDS. Due to the impact of HIV/AIDS, population growth is expected to decline over the next 20 years. This trend needs to be considered in the planning and delivery of new services. At least 34% of the population (70 517 people) is already infected with HIV/AIDS. Approximately 16 000 people can annually be added to this figure. This is expected to have a severe impact on the need for health, social and welfare services over the next 20 years. Education levels are very low, with 22% (45 628 people) having no formal education. The greatest need is for adult education facilities and programmes. Income levels are very low with 20% of households receiving no income and a further 11% with annual income of below R2400,00 less than R200,00 per month. The rural areas, especially the Hlahlindlela and surroundings and Khambi areas, are the most poverty stricken. Unemployment levels are relatively low with only 11,29% of the economically active population not being employed 21.87% of the employable population is willingly not employed (housewives, students, etc.). The dependency levels are however very high
24 with only 15.41% of the population being are formally employed. This implies that every employed person needs to support 6,5 persons of which 3 are over 15 years of age. Of those employed 17,7% work in the public sector, possibly in Ulundi. The farming sector employs the second highest number of people, indicating the importance of the agricultural sector in the economy of the area. IDP CHALLENGE: The obvious challenge for Abaqulusi, in respect of the socio-economic situation, relates to serving a largely rural community of which 38% is currently of school-going age. The analyses indicate that the rural communities have lower income levels and are more severely affected by circumstances of poverty than the urban community. These families have mostly women as interim household heads and very high dependency levels. The low levels of education have an impact on the types of job opportunities that can be obtained and therefore also potential income generation. The challenge lies in implementing appropriate community upliftment and empowerment programmes to create an environment where people can meet there basic needs and improve their quality of life.