Decisión 2012 Latino voters, immigration policy and the 2012 election
America s Voice/Latino Decisions New Mexico Latino Voter Survey Gabriel R Sanchez, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Political Science Assistant Director, RWJF Center for Health Policy University of New Mexico Director of Research Latino Decisions
Poll Details Poll Sponsored by America s Voice and conducted by Latino Decisions Random Sample of 400 Latino Registered Voters in New Mexico Fielded October 3-10, 2012 Conducted in English or Spanish (Fully Bilingual Interviewers) Maximum Margin of Error: 4.9%, and surveys were approximately 12 minutes long
Hispanic Voters Drive New Mexico Elections 50.00% 45.00% 46.30% 42.10% 40.00% 38.20% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% New Mexico 2010 2000 1990
Economy and Immigration Top Priorities 50% 40% What are the most important issues facing the Latino Community that you think Congress and the President should address? 47% 30% 20% 10% 30% 13% 18% 0% Economy Immigration Education Health Care
Immigration Impacts Voting Decisions 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% How important is the issue of immigration in your decision to vote and who to vote for in this election? 24% The Most Important Issue 28% 27% One of the Most Imporant Issues Somewhat Important 18% Not Really Important
Support for License With Added Restrictions 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% There is a driver s license reform proposal being considered here in New Mexico that would subject undocumented immigrant drivers to stricter identity and residency requirements, more frequent renewals, and tougher penalties for fraud. Would you support this proposal being implemented by state government. 37% Strongly Support 26% Somewhat Support 15% Somewhat Oppose 12% Oppose Strongly Combined Support 63% Combined Oppose 27% 10% Don t Know
70 Percent Support Access to Driver s License for Undocumented Immigrants Not be Able to Apply for License 21% Don t Know/Undecid ed 9%
Changing NM Demography Helps Explain Policy Attitudes Rise in Foreign Born Population in NM Over Time New Mexico Albuquerque National 12.80% 11.10% 11.20% 7.90% 8.20% 8.90% 9.80% 5.30% 5.30% 1990 2000 2010
Immigration Personal to Hispanic Voters in NM Now take a moment to think about all the people in your family, your friends, co-workers, and other people you know. Do you happen to know somebody who is an undocumented immigrant? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 58% Yes 37% No
Immigration Personal to Hispanic Voters in NM And do you happen to know a young person between the ages 5-31 who is an undocumented immigrant, who are sometimes referred to as the Dreamers? 50% 49% 49% 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 47% Yes 49% No
Obama Support Remains High in NM If the election were held today, would you vote for Romney Undecided Obama 24% 7% 69% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
57% of Latinos Support Heinrich If the election were held today, would you vote for Wilson Undecided Heinrich 33% 10% 57% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Congressional Advantage to Dems in NM 70% 60% Now thinking about the upcoming elections for U.S. Congress in November, do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district? 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Will Vote Democrat 3% 12% 5% Lean Democrat Undecided Lean Republican 20% Will Vote Republican
Increasing Enthusiasm for the Election 65% 64% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 59% 58% 57% 56% Very Enthusiastic About Voting in 2012 More Enthusiastic 2012 than 2008
Key Findings from New Mexico Immigration Salient to voters in New Mexico Strong Support for Driver s License With Restrictions for Undocumented Immigrants Support for Obama Remains High, and rise in Hispanic population in NM moving state in Dems favor Enthusiasm Is High But Somewhat Fragile among Latino voters
LATINO VOTE IN THE 2012 NATIONAL ELECTION A NATIONAL/BATTLEGROUND STATE PERSPECTIVE HOW DOES NM COMPARE WITH OTHER STATES? POLL SPONSORED BY AMERICA S VOICE AND CONDUCTED BY LATINO DECISIONS Latino Decisions
Latino Vote Projection in the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Tracker Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, 2012 80 70 60 65 64 66 68 69 73 72 67 NB: LD polls include only registered voters 50 40 30 20 26 30 29 26 24 21 20 23 10 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan
Two-Party Generic House Vote, 2012 Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, 2012 80 70 60 64 60 58 63 67 69 68 67 50 40 30 20 21 27 27 25 22 22 18 19 10 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Democrat Republican
Battlegrounds look different than the overall electorate Voters in battlegro unds far more engaged Arizona Florida Nevada Colorado Virginia New Mexico National Obama 80 61 78 74 66 69 67 Romney 14 31 17 20 22 24 23 DEM 71 52 68 66 58 60 67 REP 14 31 18 19 17 20 19 Very Enthused 69 70 68 69 73 64 51 Know Undoc 66 49 69 69 66 58 55
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Lets Meet Our Amazing Panel Patty Kupfer, Managing Director, America s Voice Gabriel Sanchez, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Director of Research, Latino Decisions, Assistant Director, RWJF Center for Health Policy Christine Sierra, Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Director of Southwest Hispanic Research Institute Lucia Fraire, Field Director of Voter Program, Ole New Mexico Rafael Martinez, DREAMer and MA student in American Studies
Supplemental Slides
High Levels of Obama Support and Enthusiasm Among those Concerned about Immigration 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Among respondents indicating immigration is the most important issue, percentage supporting Obama, being very enthusiastic and more enthusiastic in 2012. 81% Obama (Certain) 73% 62% Very Enthusiastic More Enthusiastic in 2012
Percent Persistent Enthusiasm Problem Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, 2012 65 60 55 54 55 59 58 53 50 45 47 46 51 49 44 40 35 30 32 38 37 40 38 38 35 35 40 30 29 36 30 36 34 25 November Univision January Univision Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 ABC More Enthusiastic about 2012 More Enthusiastic about 2008 Very Enthusiastic
Candidates Immigration Policies Affect Latino Support 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 46% 45% 46% 41% 8% 7% More Enthusiastic No Effect Less Enthusiastic Obama Policy Effect Romney Policy Effect