FIFTH FRAMEWORK RESEARCH PROGRAMME (1998-2002) Democratic Participation and Political Communication in Systems of Multi-level Governance The European Parliament Campaign Fredrik Langdal Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies Presentation made at the Conference on European Public Opinion and the 2004 European Parliament Elections, Paul Henri Spaak Building, The European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium September 18, 2003 I am most grateful for the invitation to make this presentation. The study I will present is the product of a collective effort first and foremost by Professors Blondel and Svensson and Federica Bicchi.
=> The overarching question, which is adressed in this part of the project, is if the election campaigns to the European Parliament increase voter turnout. The presentation is divided into three parts: => First a very short introduction is given to the importance of studying the actual campaigns in a context of decreasing voter turnout. >> Second, the impact of the 1994 and 1999 election campaigns are compared with an emphasis on how exposure to the campaigns affects the propensity to vote. >> The third and final section deals with the actual conduct of the 1999 campaign, where we deal with the activities of the parties and the press coverage. The analysis is based on data from the Eurobarometer and on data collected through surveys conducted in each member state. I will here present the findings and for those who are interested in the data and the statistics, you may access it through the web site. How campaigns may affect the decision to vote => The basis for this study has been findings that showed that abstention was largely due to three sets of factors => Lack of interest in politics => Lack of knowledge of politics - We have encountered these two factors this morning under the labels of indifference and ignorance. => Dislike of European integration. Now then, if these factors are decisive the potential importance of the election campaigns becomes clear, since the campaign is the one political activity, which is specifically devoted to boosting political knowledge as well as interest. In the European context this becomes even more important since citizens are unclear about the importance and meaning of European Parliament elections. The impact of the 1994 and 1999 campaigns >> We will now move on to the impact of the 1994 and 1999 campaigns. 1
The most common exposure to the campaigns was through television and radio and this holds for both elections and we also found that exposure was higher in the new member states. On account of a question raised this morning I can say that men were slightly more exposed to the campaign than were women. => It is also a fact that citizens were more actively involved in the 1999 campaign compared to the 1994 campaign. => The most interesting finding was however the confirmation of the results that the more the citizens were involved in the campaign, the more likely they were to vote (see Table 1). => Here we can clearly see the positive relationship between campaign exposure and voter turnout. => From the data it is possible to draw the conclusion that the campaigns had an impact on turnout at all levels of political knowledge, the effect being strongest among those with little or no knowledge (see Table 2). => In other words: turnout is likely to increase when campaign activities increase. And as I just said, the effect is likely to be strongest in those groups with little or no knowledge. => The study also analysed campaign exposure cross-nationally, an analysis that revealed large differences between the Member States. The main finding here is that one can conclude that a more intensive campaign can be expected to increase turnout in most countries but would have the most effect on turnout in countries where the level of campaign exposure and turnout has been low. The 1999 Election Campaign and the Political Parties => Turning now to the actual conduct of the 1999 campaign I will start with a few findings regarding manifestoes. 2
=> Even though the transnational party groups made efforts to draft manifestoes for the 1999 election, these appeared incapable of making it to the centre stage in the campaign. => Very few parties campaigned on a transnational manifesto, even though several referred to them. => Furthermore, the transnational manifestoes neither replaced nor profoundly modified national party manifestoes. => Turning to the content of the manifestoes, there were wide differences in emphasis between different issue areas, between countries as well as between parties in the same party group. The classification also revealed that the debates continue to differ between the Member States and consequently that European politics tends to be perceived through the lenses of national issues. Thus, the second-order characteristic of European Parliament elections, if such a characteristic does exist, is primarily a construction of political parties and not of the voter. (Moreover, the findings raise some serious doubts regarding the existence of party families, or at least in their national level reincarnations.) => The commitment of the parties to the campaign and how satisfied the officials were with the results was also researched. Most parties opted for a small and senior team to direct the campaign. Those parties that included senior party officials in their campaign teams were also more likely to prepare their campaigns in detail and, according to their own evaluations, had a more effective strategy. => Finally, the newspaper coverage of the campaign was generally limited and the reporting was heavily biased towards the national dimensions of the campaign. The conclusion one can draw from the press coverage during the 1999 campaign is that the press did not provide significant incentives to induce the citizens to vote. Concluding Remarks => Finally, some concluding remarks, which may seem trivial but which are nonetheless important. => For both the 1994 and 1999 campaigns it has been showed that increased campaign activities are likely to contribute to increased turnout. 3
=> However the 1999 campaign was extremely low key and had a distinct national bias. Both the parties and the media have to share responsibility for this state of affairs. Indeed, the responsibility for the future of the legitimacy of the European Parliament rests on the shoulders of the parties and the media. 4
Table 1, Campaign Exposure and Turnout 1994 and 1999 (percent voting) Type of campaign exposure None Passive Partially active Fully active Total 1994 61.8 66.9 74.2 82.7 71.3 N 1.870 3.674 4.280 1.903 11.727 1999 33.6 52.9 58.2 76.2 60.6 N 1,739 2,404 6,163 5,108 15,411 Table 2, Campaign Exposure and Turnout 1994 and 1999 - controlling for various political indicators (percent voting) Type of campaign exposure None Passive Partially active Fully active Total 1994: Political knowledge Very well informed 72.0 75.1 79.8 86.2 79.8 Moderately well 72.7 71.5 77.6 86.9 77.0 Some but not much 62.6 69.4 72.9 79.2 70.9 Very little 57.7 61.8 70.8 76.3 65.6 knowledge No knowledge 50.0 61.5 67.0 76.2 62.3 1999: Political knowledge Very well informed 59.1 67.4 70.4 83.8 76.0 Moderately well 49.1 57.9 62.2 77.7 66.8 Some but not much 32.5 57.4 55.4 77.0 60.7 Very little 30.3 47.3 50.7 64.2 51.0 knowledge No knowledge 25.3 45.0 50.3 61.8 45.3 5
Table 3. Campaign exposure in EU membership countries, 1994 and 1999 (percent active) Member state 1994 1999 Sweden - 89.5 Ireland 66.2 88.9 Finland - 88.8 Austria - 85.3 Greece 70.0 85.3 Luxembourg 63.4 83.5 Denmark 79.0 80.3 Germany 67.1 77.5 Italy 42.4 70.9 Belgium 40.4 70.5 France 31.9 66.2 Portugal 30.9 65.8 Netherlands 54.8 65.4 United Kingdom 51.0 49.0 Spain 23.5 37.9 All 52.7 73.1 Table 4 Degree of preparation and Status of campaign team Status of campaign team Degree of preparation Small and junior Big and junior Small and senior Big and senior Total Not Detailed 5 8 10 5 28 Detailed 5 8 23 18 54 Total 10 16 33 23 82 6
Figure 1. Campaign and Turnout Gamma 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 United Kingdom Germany Ireland Austria Sw eden Finland Spain Denmark Netherlands Portugal FranceItaly Greece Belgium Luxembourg 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Per cent active 1999 7