s r! PAk drew to a close (19). But we must face mentals and applications. This movement the possibility that it may well decline in the 1980's. In any

s! PAk dew to a close (19) But we must face mentals and applications This movement the possibility that it may well decline in the 1980's n any event, thee will be inceased emphasis on selecting eseach topics and setting pioities on them The pesent focus on quantity of eseach is likely to be spontaneous, since thee ae needs in both univesities and industies fo each othe's poducts Howeve, the govenment could play an effective ole in encouaging this elationship will likely be inappopiate fo the though incentives to educe the 1980's Quality of effot and apidity of esponse will become the touchstones The possible ole of the fedeal govenment in stimulating industial innovation fo commecial makets has been net cost to industy of company-sponsoed eseach in academic institutions Futhe, fedeal actions aimed at offsetting the effects of slow economic gowth and othe factos mentioned studied Such a ole would be distinct above would be wise, consideing the vital fom the taditional fedeal one of funding R & D aimed at govenment's own needs n justifying diect fedeal funding contibution of technological in- novation to poductivity and economic health Pincipal among such possible of commecial R & D, advocates often actions ae financial incentives fo say that industy tends to undeinvest because its investment (paticulaly in fundamental eseach) cannot be fully ecoveed fims-and fo those who invest in them-to allow moe apid ecovey of costs and investments, paticulaly fo This statement seems to be fist-of-a-kind plants ntoduction of dawn fom economic theoy, and thee moe apid depeciation fo R & D plant ae othe viewpoints (20) Even if it is and equipment could help ensue up-todate tue the statement by itself would not justify diect fedeal funding of eseach o development tageted at a paticula eseach facilities which have be- come quite capital-intensive Thee ae many othe possibilities fo indiect fedeal industy when indiect methods ae actions Pogams to encouage in- available Futhemoe, diect fedeal funding is unlikely to be paticulaly effective in stimulating commecial innovation The sepaation of such activity fom the maket fo its esults is a baie to the necessay coupling between eseach and application Nevetheless the health of industial eseach will continue to depend on cuent fedeal policies on suppoting basic eseach, paticulaly as it augments education Beyond diect fedeal actions thee ae novation in the spatan atmosphee of the 1980's ;nay well become pime tools of economic policy ndustial eseach is at the theshold of a new ea A new synthesis of national, copoate, and academic esouces tosustain innovation is essential because of ecent influences which decease the innovative potential of eseach wheeve it is caied out The negative influences of fedeal egulations and othe social actions on technological innovation ae numeous indiect actions appopiate well documented (21) The academic fo stimulating commecial innovation The 1980's ae likely to see a suge of academic-industial coopeation aimed at catalyzing the synegy between fundasouces of ceative eseach people and new knowledge ae losing gound because of stagnant faculties, obsolete eseach equipment, fedeal egulations and ed tape and eoding salaies Reseach in fedeal laboatoies is looked on with suspicion as competitive with the pivate and academic sectos ndusties, influenced by economic woes, ae taking fewe R & D isks n attempting to offset these tends, the fedeal govenment should ecognize and einfoce the stengths of each secto Fo industial eseach, these stengths ae divesity and puposefulness Peseving these essentials should be the majo consideation in fashioning stategies and tactics to ceate this new synthesis Refeences and Non J Higham in The Oganization of Knowledge in Moden Ameica 1860-1920, A Oleson and J Voss Eds (Johns Hopkins Pess Baltimoe, 1979) 2 A D Little Science 38 643 (1913) 3 M Holland ibid 74 279 (1931) 4 D A Hounshell ibid 207 61 2 (1980) 5 H A Rowland ibid 2 242 (1883) 6 1 J Caty ibid 44, 511 (1916) 7 J F Cowell, ibid 29 561 (1909) 8 J R Piece ibid 149 397 (1965) 9 pesonal communication 10 A Salpukas Neu Yok Times 27 Januay 1980, p F-1 11 W H Shapley and D 1 Phillips Reseach and Development AAAS Repot V (AAAS Washington D C- 1979) p 69 12 National Science Boad Reseach and Development in ndust,, 1977 (National Science Foundation Washington D C 1979) p 69 1 3 H K Nason J A Stege G Mannes Suppot of Basic Reseach by ndusty (R Reseach Cop 1978) 14 nside R & D 9 (No 23) (4 June 1980) S Commissione of Patents and Tademaks Annual Repot fo FY 1979 (Patent and Tademak Office Washington D C, 1979) 16 Technology Assessment and Foecast (Depatment of Commece Washington, D C, 1979) 17 C H Phipps "Texas nstuments-the OST system " pape pesented to Noth Ameican Society of Copoate Plannes, 17 May 1979 18 L Thomas, Science 80 1 (No 3), 22 (1980) 19 Reseach and Development in ndusty : 1977 (National Science Foundation, Washington, DC ; 1980) 20 R R Nelson, M J Peck E D Kalachek, Technology, Economic Gowth, and Public Policy (Bookings nstitution, Washington D C, 1967), p 171 ; nvention and Economic Gowth (Havad Univ Pess Cambidge Mass 1966) 21 H G Gabowksi and J M Venon, The mpact of Regulation on ndustial nnovation (National Academy of Sciences, Washington D C, 1979) ~G' ~ CAP ~ Jif~ ~1 O S(F%( F \()1 t'' 4 Jt 1 1`>t+0 Opeations Reseach and Systems Analysis Hugh J Mise Opeations eseach, unlike most sci- as a coheent development but also e nces i s able to point to a well-defined caused its name to he coined Afte Hitcombination of cicumstances and le ose to powe in Gemany England esents that not unl\ began its activities sought to pepae a suitable defense l(11h-k'~ 50 07(W-01 t9 4)' (5) 11 (, T% nght against possible ai attack, with the esult that, by late 1937 the key elements of an effective defense had been devised : ada and the Huicane fighte plane But combining them into an effective system could not be left to impovisation, as the disappointing esults of an ai execise showed in July 1938 Consequently A P Rowe, then leade of the ada development wok on England's east coast, poposed that eseach into the opeational-as opposed to the puely technical-aspects of the The autho pofesso of industial engtneenng and opeations eseach at the Univesity of Massachusetts Amhest i, on leave while seving as executive edito fo the intenational nstitute fo Applied Systems analysis Laxenbug-Vienna Austia c 0 i()aaas 1iy

ada-fighte system be undetaken, and the tem "opeational eseach" was coined to descibe the wok (1) This new kind of eseach, conducted in close coopeation with the offices and men of the Royal Ai Foce, led diectly to substantial impovements in England's ai defense system, which was given its most decisive test in the Battle of Bitain duing August and Septembe of 1940 The success of this patneship between scientists and opeating foces pompted the spead of opeational eseach to othe Bitish commands and sevices When the United States enteed the wa, this Bitish pecedent was pusued by U S militay commandes, with the esult that, by late 1942, goups of scientists wee undetaking simila wok fo both the U S Navy and Amy Ai Cops Howeve, the name had been Ameicanized to "opeations eseach " By the end of the wa, England, Canada, and the United States had employed pehaps as many as 700 scientists in wok loosely descibed by these tems (2) Some of the wok that these scientists did meely exploited the technical backgounds that they bought to thei watime tasks Howeve, thee was also the impotant novelty that they had studied and evaluated the esults of tactical opeations, devised tactical innovations and pedicted thei possible consequences, and, when the innovations wee actually used, compaed expected esults with those actually achieved And this knowledge had often become the basis fo helping with tactical planning, and even, duing the late stages of the wa, fo contibuting impotant knowledge to stategic choices Histoy shows that opeations eseach wokes made impotant contibutions to the wa effots of thei counties Howeve, anothe outcome of this wok was also impotant : Many of these scientists saw in thei watime scientific achievements the gem of a new science of opeating man-machine systems that could be developed fo peacetime activities and applied to thei poblems The Science of Opeations Reseach t is clea that many of these pionees of opeations eseach saw thei wok as being scientific : fo example, as ealy as 1941 P M S Blackest (a physicist who late won a Nobel Pize fo his wok on cosmic ays), in a memoandum on "Scientists at the opeational level " emphasized that the wok was "scientific anal- 140 ysis of opeations" and should be staffed and caied out in the spiit of science (3) This memoandum had consideable influence on both sides of the Atlantic Many of the scientists who became involved with this watime wok wee supised to find that thee wee identifiable stabilities in situations that they had altems By the end of the fist decade afte the wa, examples wee available to give substance to this expectation (7), and by now thei numbe and vaiety ae vey geat (8) A ecent example typifies much of what has been done n 1979 Eic Bodheim of the New Yok Blood Cente and Gegoy P Pas- Summay The science of man-machine opeating systems, which includes opeations eseach and systems analysis, has achieved a substantial body of theoy and application ove the last 40 yeas ts cuent stength pompts it to attack difficult lage-scale poblems while challenging the othe elevant sciences to unite, not only with each othe and opeations and systems eseach, but also with society, to deal with some of the most widespead and impotant poblems of ou time ways consideed to be totally fomless Fo example, conside the outcomes of ai combat While a commande can contol his own tactics, he cannot contol those of his enemy, no can he eliminate uncetainty in the weathe Nevetheless, it was often possible to pedict the outcomes with consideable accuacy (4) The sense of wonde that such systems of men and machines opeating in conflict in a natual envionment could exhibit aspects of egulaity was expessed by two of the most notable U S opeations eseach pionees, Philip M Mose (a physicist fom Massachusetts nstitute of Technology) and Geoge E Kimball (a chemist fom Columbia Univesity), when they wote in 1946 that "lage bodies of men and equipment caying out complex opeations behave in an astonishingly egula manne, so that one can pedict the outcome of such opeations to a degee not foeseen by most natual scientists" (5) Too, the Wold Wa expeiences had exhibited the classic cycle of the method of science (6) The scientists had obseved natue (albeit the statlingly new phenomena of militay opeations), had built theoies to account fo these obsevations, had used them to pedict futue outcomes, and had tested these pedictions against actual expeience, with fequent ageement ndeed, many of them had expeienced seveal connected and successive cycles, fom which had emeged faily compehensive theoies with accepted pedictive value Thus, the novelty of watime opeations eseach did not lie in the method that was being used, but athe in the pan of "natue" to which it was applied : militay opeations The consequence was a natual one : Many scientists expected that opeations eseach could be extended to a wide vaiety of civilian peacetime opeating systacos of the Univesity of Pennsylvania epoted a notable study (9, 10) of blood distibution and utilization that they had conducted in esponse to a national poblem (9) Each yea ove two million hospitalized Ameicans depend on the timely availability of the ight type of blood poducts at 6,000 hospital blood banks (HBBs) in the United States f the ight blood poducts ae not available when equied, then medical complications o postponements of elective sugey can esult, which tanslate to exta days of hospitaii7ation and expense On the othe hand, since most blood poducts may only be administeed to a patient of the same blood type within 21 days of collection, ovestocking at HBBs leads to low utilization, which inceases costs and is wasteful of the scace blood esouce Thus, as Johanna Pindyck, diecto of the Geate New Yok Blood Pogam (the lagest in the wold), expesses it, "We face the majo poblem of how to maximize the availability of blood to each of 262 hospitals while effectively dischaging ou implicit covenant to ou donos to see that thei gift is efficiently utilized" (11) Since thee ae appoximately 200 Regional Blood Centes (RBC's) in the United States, Bodheim and Pastacos (9) viewed the poblem fom the RBC point of view, as well as fom that of the HBB : Most blood poducts in the United States ae deived fom whole blood that is collected by an RBC in units of one pint fom voluntee donos Afte laboatoy pocessing and testing, whole blood and blood poducts deived fom whole blood ae distibuted to the HBBs, whee they ae stoed to be available fo tansfusion when equested The complexity of the blood inventoymanagement poblem is due pimaily to the peishability of blood, the uncetainties involved in its availability to the RBC, and the fluctuating demands and usages at the HBBs Too, thee ae lage vaiations in the sizes of the HBBs to be supplied, in the elative occuence of the diffeent blood goups, and in the mix of whole blood and blood poducts SCENCE, VOL 209

used at each HBB Finally, the pefomance of a egional (o hospital) blood-management system can be evaluated in tems of multiple citeia (o objectives), some of which conflict (e g, availability vs utilization of blood at an HBB), o involve costs that ae difficult to estimate (e g, the cost of unavailability) As a esult of this complexity, egional blood management systems have histoically been decentalized and eactive in natue chaacteized by the FBBs placing daily odes to bing thei inventoy to what each consideed a safe value, and the RBC tying to fill these odes as they came, while keeping a necessay buffe in the stock This ceated a feeling of uncetainty, as a esult of which HBBs have geneally tied to maintain high inventoies of most of the 8 diffeent types of each of these poducts in ode to povide high availability to satisfy patient needs, and have accepted the low utilization esulting fom spoilage Consequently, the national utilization ate of whole blood and ed blood cells pio to expiation was estimated to be only 80 pe cent in 1974 Afte studying the Long sland blooddistibution system, which was the test bed fo thei analysis, Bodheim and Pastacos easoned that thee impotant management concepts should be intoduced into the - appoach they wee exploing 1) The institution of a egional management system to allocate the egional esouces among the HBB's would incease the efficiency of esouce utilization This would call fo some fom of centalized decision-making at the RBC, which would opeate unde the objective of oveall egional efficiency 2) Some fom of blood "otation" would be equied, wheeby feshly pocessed blood would be sent to an HBB fom which it might be etuned some time late, fo edistibution accoding to the egional stategy Any egional stategy that allocates blood poducts to be etained until tansfused o outdated would esult in low utilization, especially in the case of the small-usage HBB's which, in aggegate, account fo the lagest pat of oveall blood usage 3) t would also be desiable fo a significant potion of the peiodic deliveies to the HBB's to be pescheduled n this way the uncetainty of supply faced by the HBB's would be educed, with a esulting impovement in the planning of opeations and the utilization of esouces The blood needs of an HBB can be expessed as the demand (that is, the numbe of units equied to be on hand fo possible tansfusion) and the usage (that is the numbe of units actually tansfused) Howeve, fom the RBC point of view, the effectiveness of the supply management can be measued in tems of two ates : the availability ate (that is the faction of da% s when the inventoy 4 P- L t v%u of a given blood type on hand is sufficient to meet the demand) and the utilization ate (that is, the faction of the supply that is tansfused) The fist task of the analysts was theefoe to devise a model that tanslated demand and usage to availability and utilization ates as functions of RBC blood-distibution policies and HBB blood-stocking policies Since the availability ate at an HBB depends only on the patten of demand and the inventoy level, it could be exploed on the basis of blood-bank data The analysts found sufficient stability in the evidence to establish the "univesal" piecewise linea elation between inventoy level and mean daily demand, with the availability ate as a paamete, shown in Fig 1 Tests showed that the ability of this model to pedict was high The availability ates that HBB manages consideed to be adequate anged usually fom 85 to 95 pecent The utilization ate depends on the size and age mix of the blood supply in an HBB, as well as the demand The distibution stategy is also an impotant issue Afte consultations with the HBB's, and in ageement with the management concepts outlined above, the following class of policies was chosen fo analysis Each HBB eceives peiodic shipments at intevals of to 4 days (to be detemined fom the analysis, depending on the size of the HBB, and othe consideations) Each peiodic shipment to the HBB includes a numbe of fesh (o longdated : 1- to 2-day-old) otation units and a numbe of olde (o stock-dated : 6- to 7-day-old) etention units The latte ae c ec 20 16 16 14 12 10 a 6 6 4 3 2 0 1 ewes ~~ Availability - - -m-- et e~e> -- e~~~al ~ 11MPANi NVW P!i a,,,, 'W",Q VAM MONSOON 110% 109,10 /1// 1111111 '' 80%, 0 2 0 3 0 6 0 7 1 0 etained until tansfused o discaded, but the otation units that ae in excess of a fixed desied inventoy level at the end of the peiod ae etuned to the RBC fo edistibution Modeling this situation called fo a finite-state Makov chain analysis Having deived these models to pedict the HBB availability and utilization ates fo any policy implemented by the RBC, the analysts examined the egional allocation poblem, assuming that thee wee fixed penalty costs associated with nonavailable and nonutilized units They found that the policy minimizing the total expected one-peiod cost was (i) to allocate all available etention units so as to equalize the utilization ates at all HBB's and then (ii) to allocate all available otation units, which ae not subject to spoilage while at the HBB, so as to equalize the availability ates at all HBBs t was shown that this policy is independent of unit penalty costs and that it maximizes both the availability and utili- zation of blood in the egion simultaneously That is, any deviation fom the policy that would educe utilization would also esult in educed availability fo the next peiod, and vice vesa The analysts also found that the shottem policy had the same stuctual chaacteistics as the policy that was optimal ove the long un, and even that the utilization and availability ates calculated fo the shot tem coesponded vey closely to the optimal values fo the long un Thus, they could etun to the esult showing that the distibution policy list- Mean dally demand 1 6 2 3 6 7 Fig 1 nventoies and mean daily demands fo blood units fo given availability ates at hospital blood banks Fom Bodheom and Pastacos (9) coutesy of ntefaces 14) 10

e a 0 i e SCENCE ed above fo the one-peiod case was optimal, and they could establish the following pinciple (9) : A distibution policy should seek to equalize utilization ates and availability ates among the HBBs in the egion This is also a policy that has the essential elements of "fainess" in speading equally the nonavailability and nonutilization isks amongst hospitals egadless of thei elative size, and is consequently a highly defensible policy With these esults in hand, the analysts fomulated the poblem as a mathematical pogam, which they used to detemine the appopiate distibution policy fo the Long sland egion Figue 2 gives an example of such a policy The policy was then implemented in a sequence of planned steps, and was chaacteized by continuous inteaction with the medical and administative pesonnel, design of the necessay foms and pocedues, educational sessions with the uses, and development of an automated compute-based infomation system The esults wee gatifying : utilization and availability of blood impoved significantly and wastage and delivey costs deceased by 80 pecent and 64 pecent espectively The administative system deived fom these esults (12) is being extended to the est of the Geate New Yok Blood Pogam and is being consideed fo intoduction elsewhee in the United States and aboad This example exhibits the patten familia to the watime opeations eseach analysts, and one that emains cental to successful opeations eseach wok to this day : poblem obsevation, theoy building (usually called modeling today) poblem solution based on calculations 142 Scheduled distibution 00 Rotation inventoy 7T Retention nventoy 750 530 Blood collection 1000 Long-dated egional nventoy Stock-dated egional nventoy 40 Shot-dated egional inventoy Outdated Nonscheduled distibution Designated open heat units Supplemental etention nventoy Fig 2 llustation of a planned egional blood flow [Fom Bodheim and Pastacos (9) coutesy of ntefaces] fom the theoy, devising a system to be implemented, and testing it in actual pactice, the analysts keeping in close touch thoughout with the situation being studied and with the pesons involved with it To this may be added two aspects that this bief example did not teat : implementation bings new poblems fo analysis, and a changing-undelying situation may call fo evisions in the basic eseach The Methods Almost all of the wok duing the wa boowed methods and theoies fom existing fields-mathematical analysis, pobability, statistics, and the natual sciences-with only an occasional new model being assembled fom these elements to epesent the new aspects of natue that the analysts wee exploing The most notable exception was a theoy of seach developed as pat of the wok fo the U S Navy (13) The ealy postwa wok followed the same patten Thus, it was hadly supising that Philip M Mose in etiing fom the office of the fist pesident of the Opeations Reseach Society of Ameica in 1953 said that "one of ou majo tasks is to develop analytic techniques and to boaden thei ange of application" (14) The opeations eseach community's esponse to this challenge was to poduce a apid flow of theoetical developments that continues unabated to this day Hee it is possible to mention only impotant cuents elying on the eade to consult the new Handbook of Opeations Reseach (15) 6 fo futhe elucidation and guides to impotant liteatue Some theoies that aleady existed wee extended significantly Fo example the theoy of stochastic pocesses epesented many systems of inteest to opeations eseach wokes who contibuted to its development The elated theoy of queues, which enteed a matue peiod in 1950 owing to its extensive application in telephony, developed explosively, not only because of its mathematical challenge but also because of the widespead occuence of queues in moden society and, theefoe, in the systems studied by opeations eseach wokes Optimal contol theoy which advanced in esponse to opeations eseach poblems ; value theoy, which deals with what impotance to attach to vaious possibilities ; and game theoy, which offeed a challenging famewok fo thought about opeational poblems and choices, wee all pusued enegetically Opeations eseach also poduced new theoies offeing both significant intellectual challenge and impotant vistas of potential application The best known of these is linea pogamming, which like queuing theoy, advanced apidly in the thee decades since the 1947 development of the simplex method by Geoge B Dantzig (who eceived the U S National Medal of Science in 1975 fo his wok in this field) The elated fields of intege pogamming geometic pogamming nonlinea pogamming lage-scale pogamming, and stochastic pogamming also developed in esponse to needs in applications The concept of decision assumed consideable impotance ealy in the histoy of opeations eseach and a theoy of decision now deals with such difficulties as those that aise when multiple and competing citeia ae pesent Dynamic pogamming is applicable to many kinds of sequential decision poblems the theoy of flows in netwoks has a wide vaiety of applications the theoy of simulation is impotant fo poblems whee analytic theoies ae cumbesome o inaccessible but whee pactical impeatives push the analyst to esults : and the at of heuistic poblem-solving is playing a gowing ole in handling poblems of high computational complexity (16) Aenas of Application As opeations eseach wokes have dealt with the poblems of business industy and govenment, they have obseved many conceptual stands com- VOL 209

mon to vaious opeational pocesses Thus, they have assembled goups of methods and models appopiate to many common functional pocesses including poduction planning, inventoy contol, facilities location and layout, scheduling and sequencing poject planning and contol, e liability, maintenance and eplacement maketing human esouce management, and foecasting (15, vol 2) The Handbook o Opeations Reseach devotes chapte (15 vol 2) to eight aenas of application (uban sevices health sevices, educa'' tional pocesses, tanspotation systems, militay systems, electic utilities, the pocess industies, and the leisue industies), but the list can easily be length- ~ed to include banking, advetising /univesity administation, state and local govenment'4edeal govenment highway safety, communication system management, agicultue, libay and infovntation system management, mining and the mineal industies, foesty and foest poducts, and many moe (17),~ The concens of business and industy-and of management geneally-ae conspicuous in these lists, which explains why much of the wok is caied out and epoted unde the ubic of "management science " Howeve, only a stickle fo fine detail would touble to distinguish management science fom opeations eseach by moe than the pactical context of the wok (18) Lest the peceding discussion suggest that opeations eseach can flouish only in big institutional contexts, let us tun to an issue of local govenmental concen : a school desegegation issue in a community of modest size n 1954 the Supeme Cout of the United States uled that segegated schools fo black and white childen wee an unacceptable fom of public education and that schools should begin admitting students without acial discimination "with all delibeate speed " A 1968 decision had the effect of speeding up the pocess of desegegation, and t o this end, it gave fedeal couts the authoity to ode busing school childen as one way of achieving the desied goal n addition to aousing a stom of social and ethical issues, these landmak decisions pesented school boads and school officials with two pactical difficulties i What, in quantitative tems did the cout mean by desegegation' Must evey school have the same distibution b% aces as the egional population ' O is thee some maximum allowable %aiatlon ' 1 f,c decisions did not deal diectly A y ''K with these questions, so the only couse open to a school juisdiction was to devise a plan, calculate the esulting school population distibution, and then submit it to the cout to see whethe o not it would win appoval 2) The pactical difficulties of school and bus assignments ae fomidable paticulaly if the numbes of schools and dents ae lage and if such containts as esticting the amount of additional tavel fo students ae consideed When membes of the school boad of Alachua County, Floida (in which Gainesville is located), faced these difficulties, they obtained the assistance of Pete C Belfod and H Donald Ratliff of the science faculty at the Univesity of Floida in Gainesville These two investigatos appoached the fist of the two difficulties in this way, as explained in a 1971 account of thei wok (19) : n ode to get some feel fo what the couts conside to be "acceptable" desegegation plans we contacted a numbe of oganizations, including the Depatment of Health Education and Welfae and the National Association fo the Advancement of Coloed People equesting any available infomation concening desegegation plans that had been submitted to the couts fo appoval n eve\ case these oganizations wee eithe unable o unwilling to povide this infomation We wee finally able to obtain fom individual school disticts ten plans that had been accepted by the couts since 1967 These plans wee fom school disticts in Alabama Califonia, Floida, and Geogia, and wee appoved by seveal couts Since the couts did not give easons fo accepting these plans, an attempt was made to detemine empiically fom them some quantitative measues of acceptability upon which futue plans could be based Two measues that seemed easonable wee the maximum allowable deviation fom the actual pecent black in a given distict, and the aveage allowable deviation fom the actual pecent black in a given distict Since a numbe of the plans had at least one school that was almost all white o almost all black, the maximum deviation povided little infomation The available infomation on the deviation that would be allowed fo a given school fom the actual pecentage of blacks in a given distict showed figues as high as 34 pecentage points fo schools with moe blacks than the distict aveage and 24 points fo schools with fewe blacks than the aveage Howeve, it appeaed, when the cout decisions wee viewed ove time that the allowable deviations fom the distict pecentage of blacks wee deceasing Theefoe, the school boad of Alachua County, with this tend in mind decided abitaily to seek a plan that would keep the pecentage of blacks within s points on eithe side of the distict pecentage of 30 tin othe wods each school would he equied to have between 25 and 35 pecent blacks) a decision that would yield an aveage deviation fom 30 pecent of somewhat less than 5 points a figue small enough to appea likely to gain cout appoval The next step was to conside the poblem of assigning students to schools to meet the desied objective, plus othe poblems such as keeping the additional distances taveled by students down to acceptable levels Fo this pupose the analysts constucted a model of the situation The school distict was divided into a lage numbe of student locations, each of which may be thought of as being the size of one block and the location of a school bus stop Fo each location the analysts knew the numbes of white and black students living thee and thei cuent gade assignments, and the distances fom the location to each available school in the distict by the most diect outes The numbes of white and black stus dents fom each location that had to be assigned to each school was then detemined unde these estictions : 1) Each student was to be assigned to exactly one school 2) Each school was to have assigned to it a numbe of students equal to its capacity, which was known in advance 3) The popotion of black students assigned to each school was to be between 25 and 35 pecent of its capacity Some desiable featues wee also added : 4) No assignment would be made that caused a student to be bused moe than 10 miles fom home to school 5) Any student who lived within 2 miles of an appopiate school would not be bused at all-he o she would walk And, of geat impotance : 6) Assignments would be made so as to minimize the total numbe of studentmiles taveled Some tansfomations of this fomulation allowed it to be ecognized as a minimum-cost flow poblem in a single-commodity netwok, fo which thee is not only adequate theoy but also seveal efficient methods of computation The desied numbe of students in each school and the desied bounds on the numbe of black and white students in each school wee povided by the supeintendent's office Each school distict was designated as eithe an elementay school (kindegaten though fifth gade), a middle school (sixth though eighth gades) o a high school (ninth though twelfth gades) Each system was then teated independently Fo the elementay school system

thee wee 6887 students )of whom appoximately 30 pecent wee blacks 29}{ student locations and schools The computed esults fo this sy stem wee : Pecent black : 25 (fou schools) 29 33, 34 35 (fou schools) A veage numbe of miles taveled by the 2005 bused students (of whom 944 wee white and 1061 black) : 6 Total numbe of student-bus-miles : 11,628 Simila esults wee obtained fo the middle and high schools Figue 3 shows how the student locations wee assigned to the thee high schools The desegegation plan geneated by the model was used as the basis fo ezoning the schools in Gainesville : while some mino changes wee made byy the school officials, the final disticts put into opeation wee almost indistinguishable fom those deived by the compute (20) As quite often happens, this study shed some light on othe issues, notably the concen of the public that busing to achieve integation would involve students in long, time-consuming ides 144 Howeve, a supplementay analysis showed this fea to he lagely without substance A compaison of the desegegation assignment with an optimal assignment of students to schools without egad to ace showed that the acially balanced assignment inceased the student-bus-miles by only 2_0 6 and 7 pecent fo the elementay, middle and high schools espectively "The esults indicate that the actual incease in busing is much l ess a t least fo the Gainesville system, than one might anticipate" (/9) Systems Analysis Since the bief account of the watime wok in opeations eseach showed how the wok began in tactics but gew into planning and s tategy i t is natual to look fo a simila patten in postwa wok The two examples aleady sketched deal with tactical wok but must not be ead to suggest that only tactical wok has been done Rathe, the watime patten has been followed : solid Fig 3 Assignment of student locations to schools fo the high schools of Galnessllle Floida Fom Belfod and Ratliff t/9s, coutesy of Opeation% Rew x h l foundations in tactical undestanding have led to involvement in planning and stategy in many aenas )notably in defense and lage copoations, but with instances of successful involvement in many othe contexts as divese as local govenment and univesity management) Howeve, it has been evident that each system woked on is meely a subsystem in a lage system-indeed, one of eve widening congeies of systems Thus just as the ada-fighte system was pat of a lage wafae system fo the defense of England so the egional blood-collection and -distibution system suppots the hospitals of its egion, which ae a pat of the nation's health cae system : and the school-busing sys-, ten fo Gainesville is a suppoting subsystem in the educational system fo this city Consequently the puposes of the subsystems ae subsevient to the puposes of the lage systems of which they ae pats Fo example, the school-assignment study aimed to use the buses to achieve a ough equality of the popotion of blacks in each school the equalpopotion objective being an expession of a goal of the social system in which the school system was embedded Similaly the objectives the analysts adopted of having the students within 2 miles of thei schools walk thee and of limiting any bus ide to less than 10 miles ae quantitative intepetations of social goals peceived to be held by the community Fo the busing system to contibute to the goals of the lage system of which it is a s ubsystem i t has to opeate somewhat "inefficiently " if we intepet efficiency as the subsystem objective of getting the students to school with a minimum of tavel The success of opeations eseach wokes in developing scientific theoies descibing impotant classes of phenomena occuing in man and machine opeating systems and in using these models to solve poblems aising in these systems has inevitably diven them to study lage and lage systems o i n othe wods, to what is now called "systems analysis" (21) But this impeative aises because it is intinsic to the poblems that society has, and the ways they ae embedded in lage systems Fo example : ou highway taffic system combines dives and passenges pedestians, oads, vehicles the customs and ules of the oad the weathe, the suounding envionment and the enegy souces that make it wok : ou enegy system includes the souces fom which we deive enegy SCENCE VOL 209

the means fo conveting these souces to usable foms the distibution devices and pocedues, the using community (including the highway taffic system), the political and intenational envionment that affects enegy deliveies and costs, and the natual and economic envionment in which enegy is used (and that is affected by enegy use) : the analyst concened with ai quality must study a system consisting, not only of the atmosphee and the natual global and teestial featues that affect its behavio but also of the pattens of human activity (including both tanspotation and enegy use geneally) that contibute to the deteioation of ai quality : and so on As the opeations eseach analyst is diven towad consideing the opeations of these lage systems, his classical patneship with the opeatos of the smalle subsystems (the manages of the RBC's and HBB's fo example) has to be extended to include, not only opeating and policy officials with much lage puviews, but also scientists with othe specialties elevant to the poblems Fo example, a compehensive study of an ai quality issue could demand not only opeations eseach analysts and meteoologists but also demogaphes economists, statisticians, chemists, enegy systems enginees, and egional plannes-in addition to the appopiate officials who should also paticipate in the wok Thus, although histoically systems analysis emeged lagely fom the ealy opeations eseach wok, as it is conducted today it is highly intedisciplinay Howeve, to each its highest goals it must be pandisciplinay in the sense of combining the contibutions of the vaious suppoting disciplines into new syntheses-in othe wods, into new science explaining the behavio of the lage systems it is studying Since majo systems analyses ae nealy always closely associated with majo institutional policy decisions (22) the epots that descibe them often do not find thei way into the achival liteatue of science Complete teatments ae always too long fo the usual jounal aticle and book-length teatment is some- %k hat deteed by the context of much of the wok Nevetheless, the liteatue is accumulating, both to descibe case studies and to povide oveviews of how such wok is done (23) This liteatue shows that systems analysts expect a easonably compehensive systems anal-,,, to : Mashal both the evidence elating to the piohlem and the scientific knowl- edge beaing on it and when necessay to develop new knowledge 2) Examine citically the social puposes-of both pesons and institutions-elating to the poblem 3) Exploe altenative ways of achieving these puposes and, fequently, to design o invent new possibilities 4) Reconside the poblem in the light of the knowledge accumulated duing the analysis 5) Estimate the impacts of vaious possible couses of action, taking into consideation both the uncetain futue and the oganizational stuctues that must cay these couses of action fowad 6) Compae the altenatives by applying a vaiety of citeia to the consequences 7) Pesent the esults of the study to all concened in a famewok suitable fo choice 8) Assist in following though on the actions chosen 9) Evaluate the esults of implementing the chosen couses of action The listing of these steps in ode does not imply that they take place in this ode in a systems analysis study Rathe thee is almost always a geat deal of ecycling of ideas and analysis : fo example, the impacts of the chosen couses of action may dictate econsideing the social puposes, the analysis of the chosen altenatives may geneate new and moe inteesting ones fo consideation, and so on No do all systems analyses cay out all of the steps : only some may be needed by the use Since the wold does not stand still while the wok is going on its changes may dictate majo changes in content and appoach o, since use epesentatives must wok with the analysis team thoughout if the wok is to be effective, ealy esults may get tanslated into action o policy quickly All of these influences may change the patten of the wok Howeve, the cental goal of the systems analyst is to bing esults to bea on the functions of complex opeating systems in society with a view to impoving them : he helps those with elevant inteests and esponsibilities to change these functions beneficently His analysis activities ae aimed at assuing himself and othes, to the extent possible that the changes will have desied esults But these goals must be pusued unde impotant limitations and difficulties : ) Even though the analyst may deam of consideing a system so lage as to include within it all of the factos impotant to the poblem moe pactical consideations may equie that easonable boundaies be set so that the wok can be completed and epoted on a schedule that will make its findings effective 2) The system unde study is tied to an ongoing pocess of some sot in society that cannot be isolated fo analysis and, theefoe, must be dealt with in vivo, with many conflicting vested inteests watching the analysis and its esults Since this setting denies the analyst the pivilege of a secet buial of any mistakes that may be made, one of the hallmaks of systems analysis today is a liteatue of stong citicism (24), good fo the pogess of the field but pehaps misleading in its net public impact 3) Futhe-and pehaps most unsettling fom the cuent consevative view of science and its ole in society-the analyst must wok as a pat of a system that his esults may change What can be said then of the cuent state of the science of man-machine opeating systems' t is well founded, active, and gowing in, size and impotance (25) The conestone science of opeations eseach has advanced to a state of significant matuity with its undelying theoies advancing, the scope and vaiety of poblems it deals with expanding and the effectiveness of its findings gowing in impotance Howeve, systems analysis, still in an ealie, moe fomative stage of development faces seveal difficulties The fist concens the scale of effot and institutional suppot Clealy, if lage-scale poblems ae to be tackled with intedisciplinay teams, such teams must be available, and thee must be administative aangements that enable them to wok togethe closely, conditions that seldom exist today, even in lage U S govenment bueaus (26) Howeve, thee is a notable exception on the intenational scene that should be mentioned : the ntenational nstitute fo Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenbug, Austia, a nongovenmental eseach institute founded in 1972 and today suppoted by 17 counties fom both East and West, bings togethe scientists fom moe than 20 counties to conduct analyses on impotant intenational poblems, such as those of enegy and food The second difficulty concens access to poblems and the infomation beaing on them To the woke in a classical science this may seem supising, and it may be useful to ecall, as an example, the numbe of institutions and administations involved with enegy poblems All of them have infomation that may be elevant to a systems analysis and many of them may ha%e to be influenced by the esults if the Findings ae to be effective 4 J ) 1"11

i w K M w Unless thee is coopeative access and active paticipation in the wok-sometimes fothcoming and sometimes notthe systems analysis may be handicapped, o endeed useless The thid difficulty elates to the U S science establishment's widely held philosophy of science This philosophy, epitomized by the dichotomy "pue" and "applied" science, is quite inadequate fo systems analysis, which clealy is insepaably both, in the best taditions of science's long histoy The last difficulty is the lack of a code of good pactice, widely accepted by both the public and the community of science, to guide science's attempts to influence public policy and to give the public a fai and ealistic concept of what to expect fom science and systems analysis (27) The Challenge of Systems Analysis The ugency fo developing systems analysis aises fom the impeatives of society's poblems : they call fo the sot of appoach that systems analysis epesents t is in the name of these ugent social poblems that systems analysis extends its challenge to all of science The poblems to be addessed ae some of the most impotant of ou age and involve systems fo which ou thooughly inadequate undestanding must be impoved, an impovement to which all sciences will be called on to contibute The wok of opeations eseach analysts, even in the shot histoy of thei subject, assues us that the difficulties to be ovecome by systems analysis ae intinsic and impotant and will call foth the geatest scientific ability and ingenuity ; the esult will be impotant new science and significant applications Since the goals and objectives of society and its subsystems ae essential ingedients in a systems analysis, the spokesmen fo these ideas (ou liteay men, political leades, and philosophes) must become involved, thus offeing science the natually ceated oppotunityindeed, the obligation-of foming a union, not only of the sciences, but also with the ats, in the common entepise of impoving the lot of mankind The commonly accepted philosophy of science today must expand and matue to encompass systems analysis activities as an expession of scientific wok Leading thinkes in this field today (28) assue us that this is a natual extension of the classical activities of science and its philosophy, as well as a easonable outgowth of the philosophy of science a, it ha, been developed in ecent yeas Many of the opeations and systems eseach wokes in the United States gathe at the semiannual joint meetings of the Opeations Reseach Society of Ameica and the nstitute of Management Sciences n addessing one of these meetings on 16 Octobe 1979, Hebet A Simon who won the 1978 Nobel Pize in economics, hailed it as "a celebation of human ationality " The challenge to science and society is to enlage this celebation to include the ational management of all of society's systems and thei poblems Refeences and Notes Fo a bief authoitative account by a paticipant, see H Lande in Opeational Reseach 78, K B Haley, Ed (Noth-Holland, Amstedam 1979), p 3 2 Fo a condensed account of the ealy events in this spead of activity, togethe with efeences to fulle teatments, see H J Mise (15) vol l, p 3 3 This memoandum is included in P M S Blackett, Studies of Wa: Nuclea and Conventional (Hill and Wang New Yok, 1962) p 171 4 Although most of the militay opeations eseach in Wold Wa 11 dealt with ai and naval opeations, gound combat can also exhibit aspects of egulaity Fo example, the battle fo wo Jima in 1945 pogessed in accodance with a simple theoy ; see J H Engel Ope Res 2 16 3 (1954) 5 P M Mose and G E Kimball, Methods of Opeations Reseach ( National Defense Reseach Committee Washington, D C, 1946), p 7 ; also published by Wiley, New Yok, 1951 6 As descibed in J G Kemeny A Philosophe Looks at Science (Van Nostand Reinhold, New Yok 1959) especially chap 5 7 Fo accounts of ealy wok in agicultue, etailing, and automobile taffic now egaded as classic, see, espectively : C W Thonthwaite, Ope Res 1 33 (1952-1953) : H C Levinson, ibid p 120 : L C Edit, ibid 2 107 (1954) 8 See, fo example, the issues ove the last decade of the jounals Opeations Reseach, Management Science The Jounal of the Opeational Reseach Society, and ntefaces (this last being an especially ich souce of business examples) 9 See E Bodheim and G P Pastacos ntefaces f (No 5) 3 (1979) 10 At the May 1979 meeting of the nstitute of Management Sciences and the Opeations Reseach Society of Ameica in New Oleans, this wok (9) eceived the eighth annual Management Science Achievement Awad sponsoed by The nstitute of Management Science (TMS) College on the Pactice of Management Science The quotations ae fom this pape fo the most pat, but some wee adopted fom a pesonal communication with G Pastacos (his assistance in this egad is gatefully acknowledged, as is the pemission fom ntefaces to use the it mateial fom this jounal) The quotation fom J Pindyck is fom a lette included in Bodheim and Pastacos (9) 12 See G P Pastacos and E Bodheim Manage Sci 24 No 5 (1980) 13 Fo an intoduction to seach theoy and its liteatue see B O Koopman Am Math Mon 84, 527 (1979) 4 P M Mose Ope Res 1 164 (1952-1953) J Mode and S E Elmaghaby Eds Handbook of Opeations Reseach, vol 1, Foundations and Fundamentals and vol 2 Models and Applications (Van Nostand Reinhold New Yok, 1978) 16 Fo some of the moe ecent wok on heuistic techniques, see G Conuejols, M Fishe G Nemhause Manage Sci 23 789(1977) : and R Kap Math Ope Res 2 209 (1977) These two papes shaed the 1977 Lancheste Pize of the Opeations Reseach Society of Ameica Fo ealie efeences, see H A Simon and A Newell Ope Res fi 449 (1958) 17 The pogam of any ecent semiannual joint meeting of the Opeations Reseach Society of Ameica (ORSA) and TMS offes an instuctive s iew of the cuent concens and activities of the pofession 18 ndeed the U S societies epesenting the two communities of inteest URSA and T livl, n,+' hold thei semiannual meetings iointls hie seveal publications and have man) join : a ti' s- ties 19 P C Belfod and H D Ratliff ()pe Rei 20 619 (1972) The quotations and Fig 3 ac fom this pape and ae epoduced by pemission 20 H D Ratliff pesonal communication 21 This use of the tem systems analysis n not to be confused with the meaning common in compute application activities 22 As a ecognition of this fact much of what call hee systems analysis is sometimes called policy science" o "policy analysis " 23 A classic militay systems analysis is descibed biefly in nontechnical fom in B L R Smith The Rand Copoation : Case Study of a Nonpofit Advisoy Copoation (Havad Univ Pess, Cambidge 1966), chap 6 Fo a shot account of a majo study fo the New Yok City Fie Depatment, see E J gnall et al ntefaces 5 (pat 2 of No 2) 48 (1975) : fo a fulle account see W Walke J Chaiken, E ngall Eds, Fie Depatment Deployment Analysis : A Public Policy Case Study (Elsevie Noth-Holland New Yok 1979) Fo a shot account of a study of tanspot in the Sudan, see T L Saaty, ntefaces 8 (pat 2 of No 1), 37 (1977) Fo an account of a study fo the Nethelands govenment, see B F Goelle et al, Potecting an Estuay fom Floods-A Policy Analysis of the Oosteschelde, R-2121/1-NETH (Rand Copoation Santa Monica Califonia, 1977) Fo a geneal intoduction to systems analysis see E S Quade Analysis fo Public Decisions (Ameican Elsevie, New Yok, 1975) : a thee-volume Handbook of Systems Analysis is in pepaation at the ntenational nstitute fo Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenbug Austia Fo a shot intoduction aimed at developing counties see Systems Analysis and Opeations Reseach : A Tool fo Policy and Pogam Planning fo Developing Counties (National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC 1976) The liteatue sometimes contains accounts of techniques employed in systems analyses ; fo example fo a suvey of models used in enegy policy studies see A S Maine R G Richels J P Weyant Ope Res 27 1 (1979) 24 See, fo example, R Hoos, Systems Analysis in Public Policy: A Citique (Univ of Califonia Pess Bekeley, 1972) : G D Bewe Politicians Bueaucats, and the Consultant (Basic Books New Yok, 1973) : M Geenbege M A Censon, B L Cissey Models in the Policy Pocess : Public Decision Making in the Compute E a (Russ(Russell Sage Foundation, New Yok 1976) ; G Majone and E S Quade Pitfalls of Analysis (Wiley Chicheste England 1980) 25 f we take pofessional society membeship as an indicato of inteest and at least some activity the opeations and systems eseach community consists of about 10,000 pesons in the United States and Canada and 25 000 to 35 000 woldwide The wok of this community is epoted in some 35 cental jounals (see (15) vol pp 17-181 and an intenationally sponsoed compehensive abstacting jounal ntenational Abstacts in Opeations Reseach (Noth-Holland Amstedam), cuently in its 20th yea of publication 26 Fo a 1972 view of the situation in the U S fedeal govenment, not much changed since see H J Mise and W E Cushen, in Management and Policy Science in Ameican Goiement M J White et al Eds (Lexington Books Lexington Mass 1975) p 23 27 The Opeations Reseach Society of Ameica made an attempt in 1971 to addess this issue ; the esult was widely debated but does not appea eithe to have had lasting influence o to have geneated a moe efined o geneal flow of thinking leading to geneally accepted pinciples Fo some of the items of the liteatue, see T E Caywood et al, Ope Res 19 1123 (1971) and late coespondence in ibid 20 205 (1972) The 1972 and 1973 issues of Mineva caied a seies of elevant essays See also Manage Sci 18 B606 (1971) 28 See fo example : H Boothoyd Aticulate ntevention (Taylo and Fancis London 1978) : C W Chuchman The Systems Appoach and its Enemies (Basic Books, New Yok, 1979) : and G Majone Omega the ntenational Jounal of Management Science 8 151 (1960) ; The Caft of Applied Systems Analysis (ntenational nstitute fo Applied Systems Analysis Laxenbug Austia Apil 1900) 29 Some two dozen colleagues in opeations eseach and systems analysis eviewed an ealy daft of this pape and povided me with comments and suggestions Thei contibutions to this pape ae heeby gatefully acknowledged 146 Stip-mine teaces on Bolt tf untain West Vv inia Octobe 1970 (Photo U S Depatment of Akicultue -